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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

It's always either the brave defence of a key strategic point with thousands of Russians dead or it is only a small village of no importance, isn't it?
Is that directed at what I said? I'm only going by their past form. They'll try to take it with massive loss of life (currently the case) and when that doesn't work, they'll turn it to rubble and plant their flag on the remnants. I didn't think that observation was particularly controversial tbh...
 
Is that directed at what I said? I'm only going by their past form. They'll try to take it with massive loss of life (currently the case) and when that doesn't work, they'll turn it to rubble and plant their flag on the remnants. I didn't think that observation was particularly controversial tbh...
No ,not at all . It was just a general comment about how aspects of the war are reported / commented on .
 
Still impossible to know about casualties either. All the reports in the UK kept saying massive Russian casualties, meatgrinder etc. but then top US general General Mark Milley, who seems to be very much a realist, said casualties were about even. That was in November, and I can imagine that there has been some Russian sending in the plebs to soak up bullets going on since then, but still. When it comes to NATO's view I trust Mark Milley over Ben Wallace
 
No ,not at all . It was just a general comment about how aspects of the war are reported / commented on .
Indeed, nobody knows the truth about exact numbers of casualties, which is why it's far safer to stick to known facts than rhetoric and doom mongering.

Other than Soledar a couple of weeks ago, Russia hasn't claimed a major settlement since June last year, so all this talk of the Russian advances seems weird. They might possibly capture Bakhmut soon, but they're not showing any signs of being able to break through anywhere else, despite the documented evidence of throwing huge amounts of equipment at Ukraine's defensive lines.
 
Indeed, nobody knows the truth about exact numbers of casualties, which is why it's far safer to stick to known facts than rhetoric and doom mongering.

Other than Soledar a couple of weeks ago, Russia hasn't claimed a major settlement since June last year, so all this talk of the Russian advances seems weird. They might possibly capture Bakhmut soon, but they're not showing any signs of being able to break through anywhere else, despite the documented evidence of throwing huge amounts of equipment at Ukraine's defensive lines.
Where’s all this rhetoric and doom mongering ?
 
Where’s all this rhetoric and doom mongering ?
I assumed that was partly what you were referring to with your comments about how aspects of the war are reported on.

There was a lot of nonsense coming from senior Ukrainian sources about the Russian offensive, which has since been rowed back on, because it was leading to more talk about them needing to be pressured to negotiate. Equally, the KIA figures from both sides need to be taken with a massive grain of salt.

Best to rely on the OS sources of visually documented losses rather than trying to decipher what we're being told through official channels.
 
I assumed that was partly what you were referring to with your comments about how aspects of the war are reported on.

There was a lot of nonsense coming from senior Ukrainian sources about the Russian offensive, which has since been rowed back on, because it was leading to more talk about them needing to be pressured to negotiate. Equally, the KIA figures from both sides need to be taken with a massive grain of salt.

Best to rely on the OS sources of visually documented losses rather than trying to decipher what we're being told through official channels.
Most of the ‘official’ sources announcements (on both sides) is for public consumption and propaganda so thats interesting about senior Ukrainian officials being told to button it . Was this an internal discussion or was there influence from the Americans ?
 
Most of the ‘official’ sources announcements (on both sides) is for public consumption and propaganda so thats interesting about senior Ukrainian officials being told to button it . Was this an internal discussion or was there influence from the Americans ?
This is one example that I noticed, after a few weeks of rumours coming from officials in Ukraine that Russia was planning a fresh offensive on Kyiv.

 
Nowt for nowt with the PRC. Interesting machinations there. Probabaly too optimistic to suggest that Putain has asked the PRC to help him get out of this with minimal loss of face
 
Where’s all this rhetoric and doom mongering ?
Sometimes Ukraine plays up it’s own losses to gain more sympathy/support from the west, it did when Severodonetsk was taken earlier in the war, claiming they were losing 1000 per day trying to hold out against constant artillery bombardment. The result of that crisis was the supply by western allies of the means to accurately hit ammo depots behind enemy lines, which led to shell starvation for the Russians and a slowing of the advance. They’re after more help here now since Russia has reorganised logistics well enough to resume the same tactics.
 
Poland is ready to support Ukraine with its MiG jets, but only if a broader coalition is formed with the United States as a leader, said the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki.
 
Poland is ready to support Ukraine with its MiG jets, but only if a broader coalition is formed with the United States as a leader, said the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki.
The Polish government has been one of the most pro-war members of NATO for the past year. Along with the Baltic states they're the ones with the most to be concerned about a Russian take over of Ukraine. They don't want the border of a expansionist imperialist Russia getting any closer. They certainly don't want Russian troops on their border. Obviously there's lots of history between Poland and Russia. They're the country with up to 3.5 million Ukrainian refugees, acting as a staging post for the flow of Western weapons going into Ukraine. What Morawiecki is saying here is 'we're ready to get more involved with the war if the US is'. That's been its consistent position throughout the war. It doesn't mean that the US/overall NATO position is changing.

I know you're concerned about direct NATO involvement in Ukraine - I am too - but I'm not getting the impression that the US (or France or Germany) is up for that at the moment.
 
At the same time as this...

 
i read one military analyst saying he thought jets wont really make a difference in terms of winning back territoty - they would be more helpful in a defensive role. his opion was that ukraine would need a shit load more tanks to actually win territory back.

on a different note i thought this was an interesting read and a good summary of current situation, including a range of opinions
 
Bakhmut has, for some reason, gained great emotional resonance far beyond its actual military value for both sides. Ukraine told all civilians to leave the city today so the inevitable can't be far off.
It's about sunk cost, isn't it? Bakhmut is important because of the amount of men and equipment thrown at it, therefore more men and equipment is needs to be thrown at it.
 
It’s actually reasonably important for connections to other places in the area, if taken with a decent buffer Russia might be able to bring stuff in by rail closer to the front. Russia’s offensives at the moment seem to be based around two goals - taking all of the Donbas, and securing the land bridge to Crimea by pushing Ukraine back so that supply routes through this area are out of range of nato-supplied precision missiles. If Ukraine gets longer range stuff the latter achievement will count for fuck all.
 
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