Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[TopCat]

I doubt the US and others could do it and keep a lid on it tbh. It would have involved high level political and military involvement in a number of different countries, any one of whom could have blown the whistle on the plan for political reasons, Russia could just order it done.

That's the most credible reasoning for that point of view.

 

[Rob Ray]

I doubt the US and others could do it and keep a lid on it tbh. It would have involved high level political and military involvement in a number of different countries, any one of whom could have blown the whistle on the plan for political reasons, Russia could just order it done.

Not really, it's a pipeline in the middle of the sea, all you need is a boat, decent equipment and some expertise. And even if they were spotted by another country, it's all NATO. Leaning on allies to keep quiet for the sake of wartime unity isn't exactly uncommon. And it's not limited to one or the other, either. Both Poland and Ukraine benefitted. Fact is you can keep going round in circles forever on this stuff, it's not resolvable unless direct evidence comes to light.

 

[ska invita]

Any sensible discussion has to start from the perspective that Russia are demonstrably the biggest cunts in the whole charade,

it's not sensible it's pantomime logic.

The USA has never invaded a country illegally, never assassinated a democratically elected leader, has never secretly funded contras, has never astroturfed a protest movement, has never deliberately stirred up a destabilising war, never flooded a country with drugs, never carried out a black flag operation, is appalled by the idea of propaganda, never tortured anyone, isn't engaged in a geolopolitical battle to control the world and definitely has never undertaken an act of sabotage. To even consider that they might must mean dubious motives! A comforting world view I guess...

 

[Pickman's model]

All military is subject to oversight if it comes to blowing up a civilian pipeline in another country's waters, the idea that using normal Navy divers (plus Norway rather randomly) rather than an element of JSOC or the CIA is more secure and less likely to be leaked is bonkers, as some US commentators have said.

Yeh but i dont give a fuck about that, you've rather spectacularly missed the point I'm making, which is that the article taking hersh to task for being full of shit starts of by saying he's talking about special forces carrying out the operation when hersh goes out of his way to say sf weren't used. So there's at least one apparent unforced error in the piece.

 

[The39thStep]

I doubt the US and others could do it and keep a lid on it tbh. It would have involved high level political and military involvement in a number of different countries, any one of whom could have blown the whistle on the plan for political reasons, Russia could just order it done.

I have every confidence in the US , Russia and other countries ability to carry out covert action both in wartime and peace time .

 

[Pickman's model]

I doubt the US and others could do it and keep a lid on it tbh. It would have involved high level political and military involvement in a number of different countries, any one of whom could have blown the whistle on the plan for political reasons, Russia could just order it done.

One thing we've learned over the past year is that so much of Europe is surveilled from space if not by aircraft. I daresay someone would have been tasked to monitor Russian naval activity in the baltic so just because there may be no leak at the Russian end doesn't mean it'd be secret for long.

 

[maomao]

One thing we've learned over the past year is that so much of Europe is surveilled from space if not by aircraft. I daresay someone would have been tasked to monitor Russian naval activity in the baltic so just because there may be no leak at the Russian end doesn't mean it'd be secret for long.

You don't think they might try a submarine or something?

 

[Pickman's model]

You don't think they might try a submarine or something?

I don't think they'd have used a sub all the way, I imagine if the russians were to do something like this they'd use a surface ship and a mini sub.

 

[Ax^]

You don't think they might try a submarine or something?

too many leaks

 

[Pickman's model]

too many leaks

Yeh Russian subs of variable workmanship

 

[StoneRoad]

it's not sensible it's pantomime logic.

The USA has never invaded a country illegally, never assassinated a democratically elected leader, has never secretly funded contras, has never astroturfed a protest movement, has never deliberately stirred up a destabilising war, never flooded a country with drugs, never carried out a black flag operation, is appalled by the idea of propaganda, never tortured anyone, isn't engaged in a geolopolitical battle to control the world and definitely has never undertaken an act of sabotage. To even consider that they might must mean dubious motives! A comforting world view I guess...

I do hope that you are being sarcastic here ...
The good ol' US of A has even spied on the internal activities in the UK, and we are supposed to be allies !

 

[tim]

I do hope that you are being sarcastic here ...
The good ol' US of A has even spied on the internal activities in the UK, and we are supposed to be allies !

I'm sure that the UK has reciprocated.

 

[Combustible]

It's clearly possible for the US to keep such an operation secret. I think the strongest argument against it being the US is that they have a lot more to lose from it coming out that they blew it up than they gain from it being successful. The response from European governments to the invasion has been remarkably united so far, even from Germany. Given that German public opinion is already only 50:50 or so on supporting Ukraine, that could easily unravel if it did turn out that the US crippled their future energy infrastructure. But that doesn't mean that they didn't do it.

 

[_Russ_]

Cheap confusion

 

[_Russ_]

I do hope that you are being sarcastic here ...
The good ol' US of A has even spied on the internal activities in the UK, and we are supposed to be allies !

Has ?, that implies its in the past, menwith hill still operates with our governments full approval we even name it RAF Menwith hill to further our complicity

 

[_Russ_]

I'm sure that the UK has reciprocated.

I'm sure in no way as extensive as or with the US's approval, you know that old special relationship aka bend over and spread em

 

[StoneRoad]

Has ?, that implies its in the past, menwith hill still operates with our governments full approval we even name it RAF Menwith hill to further our complicity

no, I know full well that they still have "intelligence assets" here.

Don't forget that %^&*( who killed Harry Dunn then scarpered back over there. She drove out onto the UK roads from "somewhere with a similar function" and used "diplomatic immunity" to evade the UK courts.

 

[tim]

I'm sure in no way as extensive as or with the US's approval, you know that old special relationship aka bend over and spread em

I'm sure that Blake, Philby, Burgess, Maclain and many others never bent over and spread for USA.

More recently, I would imagine that GCHQ and M.I.6 kept a careful eye on what was happening in the Trump Whitehouse and continue to monitor the Republican right and the doings of Biden

 

[Dogsauce]

Cheap confusion

Not confusion, it sounds like a cheap and efficient way to reveal air defences and/or use up their very expensive missiles. With it being reported in the last couple of days that Russia is finally ready to use the full force of its airforce in Ukraine (with inherent risks), Russia will want to know where air defences are in order to neutralise them. It’s a pretty smart thing to do.

 

[existentialist]

Not confusion, it sounds like a cheap and efficient way to reveal air defences and/or use up their very expensive missiles. With it being reported in the last couple of days that Russia is finally ready to use the full force of its airforce in Ukraine (with inherent risks), Russia will want to know where air defences are in order to neutralise them. It’s a pretty smart thing to do.

Unless Ukraine has already figured that out...

 

[Dogsauce]

Unless Ukraine has already figured that out...

They won’t be able to figure out what is balloon and what is a loitering munition or drone of some kind from a radar trace (I guess speed might show whether it’s a cruise missile or not). Russia has also started doing their missile attacks more at night, because it‘s harder for air defence to get a visual ID - Ukraine has taken some down with ManPADS and even small arms fire in daytime. Tougher in the dark obviously. Another tactic was sending the Iranian drones ahead of the big missiles to waste air defence assets, or overwhelm with sheer numbers. They do have some idea what they are doing.

 

[teqniq]

Really? What took them so long?



I imagine this may engender some whataboutery from certain quarters.

 

[ska invita]

Really? What took them so long?



I imagine this may engender some whataboutery form certain quarters.

The signs are that there needs to be a lot more arms sending to stop the Russian advance so presumably this is a step towards authorising that

 

[strung out]

The signs are that there needs to be a lot more arms sending to stop the Russian advance so presumably this is a step towards authorising that

What Russian advance? Their offensive started weeks ago and has achieved next to nothing apart from a lot of dead Russians.

 

[Artaxerxes]

What Russian advance? Their offensive started weeks ago and has achieved next to nothing apart from a lot of dead Russians.

They advanced 2km at one point, 2km.


Paris by winter

 

[ska invita]

What Russian advance? Their offensive started weeks ago and has achieved next to nothing apart from a lot of dead Russians.

theyre already gaining ground in the east, slowly, and the spring offence will start soon

 

[ska invita]

this is from the FT today

Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia in maps: latest updates

A visual guide to the war

www.ft.com

worth looking at the link properly

 

[strung out]

theyre already gaining ground in the east, slowly, and the spring offence will start soon

No they're not. They gained one small town a few weeks ago and the offensive has already started.

 

[Nylock]

Looking at the near consistent Bakhmut-shaped hole in the latter part of that map animation it looks like, in order to take the city, that the Russins will end up doing what they did to Mariupol: encircle the city and flatten it before sending in the 'mop up' troops.

No doubt if that happens, Prigozhin will use it as a massive PR stunt for his PMC group whilst conveniently ignoring the thousands of conscripts who will have have been killed or maimed for life in the process. Just like Kadyrov did with his lot in Mariupol.

 

[The39thStep]

It's always either the brave defence of a key strategic point with thousands of Russians dead or it is only a small village of no importance, isn't it?