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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Jfc various players could have done it, no-one knows who did do it, anything else is speculation, so there's no point in having an argument about it.

Although this all came about due to the Hersh article where he says the US did do it, so some people are moving beyond speculation, and his article is being widely circulated among the pro-Russian State people so it's not surprising we're discussing especially given Simon Pirani's more convincing (IMO) response.
 
Bizarre the way people are using this as a which side are you on football. If it was the US it was presumably part of the war effort (hence Poland saying thank you) and so a good thing....

I think most people are saying we don't know, but it's entirely possible that it was Russia. Except Hersh who's written an article to say it definitely was the US, and TopCat who says it definitely wasn't Russia and anyone who thinks it might be is dishonest/thick or something.

But ultimately, yes, it's not that worthwhile a topic, it only re-emerged cos the Pirani piece and me and TopCat's own Russia/NATO proxy war re-entactment on U75.
 
I think most people are saying we don't know, but it's entirely possible that it was Russia. Except Hersh who's written an article to say it definitely was the US, and TopCat who says it definitely wasn't Russia and anyone who thinks it might be is dishonest/thick or something.

But ultimately, yes, it's not that worthwhile a topic, it only re-emerged cos the Pirani piece and me and TopCat's own Russia/NATO proxy war re-entactment on U75.
There's don't know and don't know. We've seen in the past with the Kursk that Russia struggles at depth and any operation like this would have needed rehearsals (see eg admiral mcraven's book on special ops where he emphasises this as a preliminary to a successful special op). Given the amount of nato activity in the baltic beforehand both rehearsals and the actual op clearly possible, while all the support necessary was available at the time. So I would tend to support hersh's conclusions tho not all the rationale in support he provides
 
I think most people are saying we don't know, but it's entirely possible that it was Russia. Except Hersh who's written an article to say it definitely was the US, and TopCat who says it definitely wasn't Russia and anyone who thinks it might be is dishonest/thick or something.

But ultimately, yes, it's not that worthwhile a topic, it only re-emerged cos the Pirani piece and me and TopCat's own Russia/NATO proxy war re-entactment on U75.
Who's who?
 
Gen Mark Milley, chair of America’s joint chiefs of staff, has said neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve their military aims, and he believes the war will end at the negotiating table.

This is a bit different from his statement yesterday that Russia had failed strategically and tactically and were finished.

He is the top General of the US so the inconsistency in his messaging is a bit bizarre.
 
From his full remarks, it seems Milley was referring to Russia having lost in the sense of Russia having failed to achieve its objective of defeating Ukraine -

Ten days from now is the one-year anniversary when Russia brutally, illegally and a completely unprovoked way invaded the sovereign nation of Ukraine. As the secretary just pointed out, Putin thought he could defeat Ukraine quickly, fracture the NATO alliance and act with impunity. He was wrong. Ukraine remains free. They remain independent. NATO and this coalition has never been stronger. And Russia is now a global pariah. And the world remains inspired by Ukrainian bravery and resilience.

In short, Russia has lost. They've lost strategically, operationally and tactically. And they are paying an enormous price on the battlefield.

But until Putin ends his war of choice, the international community will continue to support Ukraine with the equipment and capabilities it needs to defend itself.



He went on to say:

...on whether or not the Russians have the capability and equipment, et cetera to continue the attack in the Donbas -- well, they are attacking the Donbas right now. Their progress is slow. It's a war of attrition. They're taking heavy casualties. Their leadership and morale is not great, and they're struggling mightily. However, they do have numbers, and as you know, President Putin did a call-up of several hundred thousand, and those folks have been arriving on the battlefield. So they do have numbers, and whether or not they're successful in pressing the fight, that remains to be seen. But that fight has been going on, and it's a slow, grinding battle of attrition in that general area.
 
Gen Mark Milley, chair of America’s joint chiefs of staff, has said neither Russia nor Ukraine is likely to achieve their military aims, and he believes the war will end at the negotiating table.

This is a bit different from his statement yesterday that Russia had failed strategically and tactically and were finished.

He is the top General of the US so the inconsistency in his messaging is a bit bizarre.
If only he'd listen to you, and your cogent, reasonable arguments.
 
Russia didn’t need to blow it up under the sea, they could have severed it at their end if they wanted. The only reason for doing it where it was would be to finger someone else for it.

America has a motive in that it’ll be shipping LPG into Europe at a very nice price for a number of years ahead, but at the same time they’ve been treading so cautiously around Russia’s red lines (tanks, jets etc.) that something this reckless just seems out of line with their behaviour.

Ukraine itself has Russian pipelines crossing its territory serving Europe which have remained unmolested, bar when some of the power supply for pumping apparatus was taken out by Russia. If they haven’t damaged those then they’re unlikely to progress a complex subsea operation to do the same thing.

So who the fuck knows who did it. Maybe it just spontaneously broke.
 
Pirani summarises the article it in his intro:

"I do not know who blew up the pipelines. But here I will show that (i) Hersh’s claims about the effect and purpose of the sabotage are factually incorrect, (ii) his account of the build-up to the explosion misses out huge chunks of the story and is grossly misleading, and (iii) his explanation for U.S. motivation is flawed, and his failure to examine Russian motivation is one-sided."

Pirani summarises partly by saying:

“Left organisations and personalities retail (sp.?) Hersh’s Nord Stream story uncritically, because it is what they want to hear. Dogma beats inquiry. Innuendo and false claims beat solidarity with the victims of Russia’s scorched-earth war on populations, in Syria in 2014 and 2017, and Ukraine in 2022-23."

Given Hersh publised stuff denying Assad's use of chemical weapons with equally spurious 'research' everything he produced is highly politically and factually suspect imo.

 
Russia didn’t need to blow it up under the sea, they could have severed it at their end if they wanted. The only reason for doing it where it was would be to finger someone else for it.

America has a motive in that it’ll be shipping LPG into Europe at a very nice price for a number of years ahead, but at the same time they’ve been treading so cautiously around Russia’s red lines (tanks, jets etc.) that something this reckless just seems out of line with their behaviour.

Ukraine itself has Russian pipelines crossing its territory serving Europe which have remained unmolested, bar when some of the power supply for pumping apparatus was taken out by Russia. If they haven’t damaged those then they’re unlikely to progress a complex subsea operation to do the same thing.

So who the fuck knows who did it. Maybe it just spontaneously broke.
I appreciate your view. Yes the very siting of the severance makes me go "chin rub".

it is one of the odder real politik aspects of this conflict that Russia pipes gas through Ukraine still, both for transit and for Ukraine's use and that Ukraine are fairly up to date with the bills.
 
Pirani summarises the article it in his intro:

"I do not know who blew up the pipelines. But here I will show that (i) Hersh’s claims about the effect and purpose of the sabotage are factually incorrect, (ii) his account of the build-up to the explosion misses out huge chunks of the story and is grossly misleading, and (iii) his explanation for U.S. motivation is flawed, and his failure to examine Russian motivation is one-sided."

Pirani summarises partly by saying:

“Left organisations and personalities retail (sp.?) Hersh’s Nord Stream story uncritically, because it is what they want to hear. Dogma beats inquiry. Innuendo and false claims beat solidarity with the victims of Russia’s scorched-earth war on populations, in Syria in 2014 and 2017, and Ukraine in 2022-23."

Given Hersh publised stuff denying Assad's use of chemical weapons with equally spurious 'research' everything he produced is highly politically and factually suspect imo.


This is pretty much spot-on, isn't it?

Any sensible discussion has to start from the perspective that Russia are demonstrably the biggest cunts in the whole charade, and have lied consistently and thoroughly about everything since the build-up to the invasion.

That has to be the starting point for any discussion of the topic and you have to question the motives of anyone wishing to proceed otherwise.
 
Pirani summarises the article it in his intro:

"I do not know who blew up the pipelines. But here I will show that (i) Hersh’s claims about the effect and purpose of the sabotage are factually incorrect, (ii) his account of the build-up to the explosion misses out huge chunks of the story and is grossly misleading, and (iii) his explanation for U.S. motivation is flawed, and his failure to examine Russian motivation is one-sided."

Pirani summarises partly by saying:

“Left organisations and personalities retail (sp.?) Hersh’s Nord Stream story uncritically, because it is what they want to hear. Dogma beats inquiry. Innuendo and false claims beat solidarity with the victims of Russia’s scorched-earth war on populations, in Syria in 2014 and 2017, and Ukraine in 2022-23."

Given Hersh publised stuff denying Assad's use of chemical weapons with equally spurious 'research' everything he produced is highly politically and factually suspect imo.

If you read hersh's article and look at the people he says carried out the operation they don't appear to fall within either the US special operations command or the naval special warfare lot (see United States Naval Special Warfare Command - Wikipedia). And hersh says why he thinks the special forces not used, because use of soc forces has to go to Congress. Using divers from Panama City doesn't have to be so reported. So this rebuttal of hersh has itself at least one apparent error in it, in its claim special forces were employed.
 
Pirani summarises the article it in his intro:

"I do not know who blew up the pipelines. But here I will show that (i) Hersh’s claims about the effect and purpose of the sabotage are factually incorrect, (ii) his account of the build-up to the explosion misses out huge chunks of the story and is grossly misleading, and (iii) his explanation for U.S. motivation is flawed, and his failure to examine Russian motivation is one-sided."

Pirani summarises partly by saying:

“Left organisations and personalities retail (sp.?) Hersh’s Nord Stream story uncritically, because it is what they want to hear. Dogma beats inquiry. Innuendo and false claims beat solidarity with the victims of Russia’s scorched-earth war on populations, in Syria in 2014 and 2017, and Ukraine in 2022-23."

Given Hersh publised stuff denying Assad's use of chemical weapons with equally spurious 'research' everything he produced is highly politically and factually suspect imo.

Thanks for that. I never quoted Hersh's article because what I read of it seemed to contain a lot of assertions and theories sort of presented as fact but also smacking of bigging himself as author up. I had no idea of the trajectory Hersh seems to be on. I agree with whoever posted earlier that a lot of big story journoes often go a bit odd.
 
This is pretty much spot-on, isn't it?

Any sensible discussion has to start from the perspective that Russia are demonstrably the biggest cunts in the whole charade, and have lied consistently and thoroughly about everything since the build-up to the invasion.

That has to be the starting point for any discussion of the topic and you have to question the motives of anyone wishing to proceed otherwise.
Frame the conversation.
 
it is one of the odder real politik aspects of this conflict that Russia pipes gas through Ukraine still, both for transit and for Ukraine's use and that Ukraine are fairly up to date with the bills.
yeah, that one is an odd one. Capitalism rolls on regardless.

I guess Ukraine doesn’t really have a choice here, they need that gas, and if they fucked with onward transit to Southern Europe (places like Hungary are very dependent too) then they’d lose support from allies which is worth more to them. Conversely you have to wonder why Russia hasn’t turned it off to freeze Europe, but they’d also risk losing some soft support from nations there (Serbia, Hungary are in their orbit) and they probably want to keep some leverage/divided loyalties going.
 
If you read hersh's article and look at the people he says carried out the operation they don't appear to fall within either the US special operations command or the naval special warfare lot (see United States Naval Special Warfare Command - Wikipedia). And hersh says why he thinks the special forces not used, because use of soc forces has to go to Congress. Using divers from Panama City doesn't have to be so reported. So this rebuttal of hersh has itself at least one apparent error in it, in its claim special forces were employed.

All military is subject to oversight if it comes to blowing up a civilian pipeline in another country's waters, the idea that using normal Navy divers (plus Norway rather randomly) rather than an element of JSOC or the CIA is more secure and less likely to be leaked is bonkers, as some US commentators have said.
 
This is pretty much spot-on, isn't it?

Any sensible discussion has to start from the perspective that Russia are demonstrably the biggest cunts in the whole charade, and have lied consistently and thoroughly about everything since the build-up to the invasion.

That has to be the starting point for any discussion of the topic and you have to question the motives of anyone wishing to proceed otherwise.
I can say that Russia are the biggest cunts and have lied consistently and thoroughly about everything since the build-up to the invasion and still say that it wouldn't surprise me if the yanks blew up the pipe stream . So question away.
 
I can say that Russia are the biggest cunts and have lied consistently and thoroughly about everything since the build-up to the invasion and still say that it wouldn't surprise me if the yanks blew up the pipe stream . So question away.

I doubt the US and others could do it and keep a lid on it tbh. It would have involved high level political and military involvement in a number of different countries, any one of whom could have blown the whistle on the plan for political reasons, Russia could just order it done.
 
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