Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[DownwardDog]

The thing I have a problem with here is that it seems to me that, unless Russia gets the message very clearly that this kind of adventurism does not yield results, they are going to continue doing it.

This kind of adventurism does yield results as the whole of human history is a tapestry of violent conquest. There is no way to demonstrate the contrary to Russia without starting WW3.

 

[Rob Ray]

The relevant question is probably whether the results cost so much that it's not considered to be worth trying again. The existentially dangerous scenario is the one which is threatening atm, where after 2-3 years of fighting Russia has spent a huge amount but gets its current borders (or near enough) signed off, thus allowing its hawks justify having another go later (most likely following a long period of "not quite" peace to block Ukraine from joining NATO). Meanwhile Western hawks succeed in converting the sense of threat into a new arms race.

 

[keybored]

Sure, however, my post was to illustrate the Russian's attitude and investment toward the occupied/annexed areas

And so was mine.

 

[Pickman's model]

The relevant question is probably whether the results cost so much that it's not considered to be worth trying again. The existentially dangerous scenario is the one which is threatening atm, where after 2-3 years of fighting Russia has spent a huge amount but gets its current borders (or near enough) signed off, thus allowing its hawks justify having another go later (most likely following a long period of "not quite" peace to block Ukraine from joining NATO). Meanwhile Western hawks succeed in converting the sense of threat into a new arms race.

I wouldn't lose any sleep over that at all, it's not something worth worrying about in comparison to the far more likely and almost certainly rather nearer prospect of war between the United States and China

 

[The39thStep]

I wouldn't lose any sleep over that at all, it's not something worth worrying about in comparison to the far more likely and almost certainly rather nearer prospect of war between the United States and China

Are we picking sides to cheer on early in this one?

 

[Rob Ray]

That's a solid NWBTCW candidate. I'm not sure a direct US-China conflict offers enough benefit to either side to actually happen though.

 

[The39thStep]

That's a solid NWBTCW candidate. I'm not sure a direct US-China conflict offers enough benefit to either side to actually happen though.

We can take ante post bets though .

 

[Pickman's model]

That's a solid NWBTCW candidate. I'm not sure a direct US-China conflict offers enough benefit to either side to actually happen though.

We'll find out I suppose

 

[Yossarian]

Kyiv says six Russian balloons are kaput

Kyiv says it shot down Russian balloons over Ukraine's capital

Six Russian balloons were spotted over Kyiv and most were shot down after being engaged by air defences, the Ukrainian capital's military administration said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[A380]

I’ve got this in hardback. Haven’t read it for 15 years. Might be time to dust it down.

 

[A380]

The thing I have a problem with here is that it seems to me that, unless Russia gets the message very clearly that this kind of adventurism does not yield results, they are going to continue doing it. Sure, we might end up with a negotiated settlement, with Russia controlling great chunks of Eastern Ukraine, but that just makes the task of taking another big bite out of the country that much easier when they've built up their military again, and they're ready for another go, rinse and repeat.

And will they stop when they've grabbed most of Ukraine? I know we can probably take the propagandising with a large pinch of salt, but those Baltic republics are looking very vulnerable, and Poland's military buildup suggests that they're not exactly feeling the love, either.

It seems to me that a Russia/NATO conflict is inevitable unless there is some dramatic change in Russia's outlook, and that doesn't look likely any time soon.

And I suspect that Russia would have a massive insurgency problem in the bits of Ukraine they held on to in any case.

I can see Russia collapsing again. Not saying that will be a good thing for the Russian people or the rest of the world but a direct NATO/Russia full on fight seems more unlikely than it it did four years ago.

 

[two sheds]

My dad was much taken in the 40s/50s with "The Great Illusion".

In The Great Illusion, Angell's primary thesis was, in the words of historian James Joll, that "the economic cost of war was so great that no one could possibly hope to gain by starting a war the consequences of which would be so disastrous."[4] For that reason, a general European war was very unlikely to start, and if it did, it would not last long.[5] He argued that war was economically and socially irrational[6] and that war between industrial countries was futile because conquest did not pay. J. D. B. Miller writes: "The 'Great Illusion' was that nations gained by armed confrontation, militarism, war, or conquest."[7]

According to Angell, the economic interdependence between industrial countries would be "the real guarantor of the good behavior of one state to another",[6] as it meant that war would be economically harmful to all the countries involved. Moreover, if a conquering power confiscated property in the territory it seized, "the incentive [of the local population] to produce would be sapped and the conquered area be rendered worthless. Thus, the conquering power had to leave property in the hands of the local population while incurring the costs of conquest and occupation."[7]

Not sure how it's viewed now (written in the 1900s) but it's a shame Putin didn't read it

 

[Yossarian]

View attachment 363364

I’ve got this in hardback. Haven’t read it for 15 years. Might be time to dust it down.

The "Choose Your Own Adventure" font was an interesting choice

 

[A380]

The "Choose Your Own Adventure" font was an interesting choice

View attachment 363367

‘AJP Taylor and the Wizard of Shrivenham.’

 

[krtek a houby]

Berlusconi who went into coalition with self-styled "Post-Fascist" Gianfranco Fini and the unashamed racists of Legha/ Legha Nord; pimped underage girls; and employed a Mafioso to run his private estate.

I don't see anything wrong with reminding folk of what a shit he is.

Slight derail, the billionaire has been acquitted

 

[Artaxerxes]

My dad was much taken in the 40s/50s with "The Great Illusion".



Not sure how it's viewed now (written in the 1900s) but it's a shame Putin didn't read it

This was what people assumed in 1914


It’s balls

 

[tim]

Slight derail, the billionaire has been acquitted

True, whilst there was indeed certain proof of prostitution at the the villa he owned and partied at, the Appeal Court was convinced that there was nothing to prove that he knew that the seventeen year old Moroccann he had sex with was actually seventeen. In fact thought he was fucking his mate Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's Moroccan niece which is why he got the police, who he didn't pressurise, to release her.

Having got that straight we can, sweatlessly move on to establish that his other friend Vladimir Vladimirovich is equally spotless, unlike Lord Archer's back.

Silvio Berlusconi unaware dancer he paid for sex was underage, court rules

Appeal court says evidence does not support claims that former Italian leader knew ‘Ruby the Heart Stealer’ was only 17

www.google.com

 

[Pickman's model]

That's a solid NWBTCW candidate. I'm not sure a direct US-China conflict offers enough benefit to either side to actually happen though.

You make war sound like a logical and rational decision, but as we know it isn't, that the very systems established to prevent war through alliances and balances of power cam precipitate calamities like the first world war, that non-state actors can haul mighty superpowers into wars like the 'global war on terror', and so on. There are so many bones of contention now round China that it'll be more surprising in the big one doesn't happen than if it does. Couple that with a Chinese (well xi jinping) desire to eclipse the USA as a world power, unfavourable demographics, an American shortage of materiel, and if we're not set fair for 2025 I'd be somewhat surprised

 

[Pickman's model]

Kyiv says six Russian balloons are kaput

Kyiv says it shot down Russian balloons over Ukraine's capital

Six Russian balloons were spotted over Kyiv and most were shot down after being engaged by air defences, the Ukrainian capital's military administration said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

Very easy to keep sending over balloons that are cheap and getting the Ukrainians to spend loads of ammunition or expensive missiles on them

 

[two sheds]

This was what people assumed in 1914


It’s balls

Indeed, although this bit seems true enough and particularly relevant to Russia Ukraine:

He argued that war was economically and socially irrational[6] and that war between industrial countries was futile because conquest did not pay. J. D. B. Miller writes: "The 'Great Illusion' was that nations gained by armed confrontation, militarism, war, or conquest."[7]

One mistake is assuming that governments would act rationally.

 

[LDC]

Response to Hersh's ludicrous article that the US blew up Nord Stream.

The Nord Stream Pipeline Explosions: Challenging False Narratives - New Politics

The claim that the Nord Stream gas pipeline was blown up by U.S. special forces, made by Seymour Hersh, is being used to reinforce false narratives about Russia’s culpability for the war in Ukraine.Read more ›

newpol.org

 

[JimW]

Response to Hesh's ludicrous article that the US blew up Nord Stream.

The Nord Stream Pipeline Explosions: Challenging False Narratives - New Politics

The claim that the Nord Stream gas pipeline was blown up by U.S. special forces, made by Seymour Hersh, is being used to reinforce false narratives about Russia’s culpability for the war in Ukraine.Read more ›

newpol.org

Saw that gleefully picked up by a couple of the major Chinese news portals

 

[LDC]

Saw that gleefully picked up by a couple of the major Chinese news portals

You mean the original Hersh article I guess?

 

[JimW]

You mean the original Hersh article I guess?

Yes, a precis of it playing up his status as veteran reporter and authority. Fits a narrative nicely.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes, a precis of it playing up his status as veteran reporter and authority. Fits a narrative nicely.

Celebrated journalists seem often to go rogue, eg pilger, hitchens

 

[JimW]

Celebrated journalists seem often to go rogue, eg pilger, hitchens

Fisk too.

 

[ska invita]

Response to Hesh's ludicrous article that the US blew up Nord Stream.

The Nord Stream Pipeline Explosions: Challenging False Narratives - New Politics

The claim that the Nord Stream gas pipeline was blown up by U.S. special forces, made by Seymour Hersh, is being used to reinforce false narratives about Russia’s culpability for the war in Ukraine.Read more ›

newpol.org

Even if everything Pirani says is correct its not ludicrous that the US did it. The link you posted boils down to one conclusion: "ive no idea who did it". The US remains the most likely. Thats not a certainty, it goes on a long list of things we will likely never know, but US is the most likely, not least because they said they would do it and Poland said thank you

 

[TopCat]

I said before and will repeat it as anything else is daft. Russia did not destroy Nordstream 2. This stupid theory really deserves the term “ludicrous “.

 

[StoneRoad]

I've no idea who actually destroyed that pipeline.

But two comments made by a certain well-known, if fictional, consulting detective come to mind ..,

a) cui bono - who benefits

and

b) when you have eliminated all other possibilities/suspects, what/who -ever remains, however improbable, must be the solution [culprit].

 

[Pickman's model]

I've no idea who actually destroyed that pipeline.

But two comments made by a certain well-known, if fictional, consulting detective come to mind ..,

a) cui bono - who benefits

and

b) when you have eliminated all other possibilities/suspects, what/who -ever remains, however improbable, must be the solution [culprit].

Not sure sherlock holmes ever said cui bono or who benefits, which story are you taking that from? E2a it's not in a Conan Doyle story, but a pastiche in the improbable adventures of sh