Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[LDC]

There was one who was arrested and prosecuted whose partner went to UKIP and the DFLA for support .

Can you remember the name? Also possible relatives were a bit freaked out and just approached anyone they thought might help rather than being proper right wing. There were a very few from the far right in NE Syria, and mostly not from the UK but Scandanavians. Most from that scene went to the Pershmerga in Iraq if they wanted to fight IS I think.

 

[Yossarian]

Did anyone ever get prosecuted for fighting in the Spanish Civil War?

 

[LDC]

Did anyone ever get prosecuted for fighting in the Spanish Civil War?

No. It's a completely outdated and unworkable bit of law, hence they usually use terrorism laws instead.

 

[tim]

It worked so much better when we were imperial.

We certainly did Crimean wars more poetically back in those Imperial days.

I
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
“Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!” he said.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

II
“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

III
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell
Rode the six hundred.

IV
Flashed all their sabres bare,
Flashed as they turned in air
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wondered.
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right through the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reeled from the sabre stroke
Shattered and sundered.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.

V
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell.
They that had fought so well
Came through the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.

VI
When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred!

 

[Pickman's model]

We certainly did Crimean wars more poetically back in those Imperial days.

I
Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
“Forward, the Light Brigade!
Charge for the guns!” he said.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

II
“Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismayed?
Not though the soldier knew
Someone had blundered.
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die.
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

III
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of hell
Rode the six hundred.

IV
Flashed all their sabres bare,
Flashed as they turned in air
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wondered.
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right through the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reeled from the sabre stroke
Shattered and sundered.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.

V
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volleyed and thundered;
Stormed at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell.
They that had fought so well
Came through the jaws of Death,
Back from the mouth of hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.

VI
When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred!
n/a

The Light Brigade were the 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade of their day

 

[tim]

Will the alive returning UK volunteers get nicked when they return? Happened to a lot of people fighting ISIS.

You know that they won't unless they went and fought for Russia.

 

[The39thStep]

Can you remember the name? Also possible relatives were a bit freaked out and just approached anyone they thought might help rather than being proper right wing. There were a very few from the far right in NE Syria, and mostly not from the UK but Scandanavians. Most from that scene went to the Pershmerga in Iraq if they wanted to fight IS I think.

Aiden James. He was from Formby. I contacted a couple in the network about him, they thought he had 'health' issues. His partner was always on the DFLA boards tbh she was very anti Muslim I contacted her via Facebook offering her and him support from someone in the network and to try and influence her away from going to the far right for support. However she wouldn't have it and, she was very disparaging about other volunteers.

 

[existentialist]

It could all be ok as according to this US General today, Russia have already lost. Can someone ring Putin and tell him?

General Mark Milley, chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff, has said Russia has lost “strategically, operationally and tactically” and that they are “paying an enormous price on the battlefield” in Ukraine.

An interesting subtlety in military operations is the quite wide gap between being able to operate defensively, and operate offensively. There seems to be quite a consensus in the milblogger and analyst community that Russia is managing quite nicely on the defensive aspect (on the battlefield), but is poorly capable in terms of offensive ability. I don't see a lot of reasons to argue with that.

 

[existentialist]

I think leadership has a great responsibility and that he is leading his people to disaster.

OK, so it's an opinion.

I wonder what you think he might to do not "lead his people to disaster"? Capitulate?

 

[kabbes]

Negotiated settlement is only possible when both negotiators are capable of psychologically modifying their perception of their own and the other’s goals, removing the incompatibilities therein.

Right now, Putin’s position is that Ukraine needs wiping out. Zelenskyy’s position is that Ukraine should continue to exist. No negotiated settlement is possible on that basis.

 

[strung out]

Negotiated settlement is only possible when both negotiators are capable of psychologically modifying their perception of their own and the other’s goals, removing the incompatibilities therein.

Right now, Putin’s position is that Ukraine needs wiping out. Zelenskyy’s position is that Ukraine should continue to exist. No negotiated settlement is possible on that basis.

Yes, but what you're forgetting is that they should

Just negotiate a settlement.

Simple really.

 

[DownwardDog]

Negotiated settlement is only possible when both negotiators are capable of psychologically modifying their perception of their own and the other’s goals, removing the incompatibilities therein.

Right now, Putin’s position is that Ukraine needs wiping out. Zelenskyy’s position is that Ukraine should continue to exist. No negotiated settlement is possible on that basis.

Well the Ukrainians aren't going to Moscow and the Russians (probably) aren't going to Kiev so a settlement of some sort is going to happen eventually. Maybe a Korea style partition.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Well the Ukrainians aren't going to Moscow and the Russians (probably) aren't going to Kiev so a settlement of some sort is going to happen eventually. Maybe a Korea style partition.

Or maybe not. But I will forward your suggestion to the Ukrainian people for their comments.

 

[agricola]

Negotiated settlement is only possible when both negotiators are capable of psychologically modifying their perception of their own and the other’s goals, removing the incompatibilities therein.

Right now, Putin’s position is that Ukraine needs wiping out. Zelenskyy’s position is that Ukraine should continue to exist. No negotiated settlement is possible on that basis.

Is it? I ask because, as unfathomable as the thinking over there is, there is quite a lot of evidence to suggest that it isn't even at this point. As one example they are building a huge water supply pipeline to the Donbas, which kind of implies that they expect the area won't be getting water from the rest of Ukraine anytime soon.

If I had to guess his position probably runs the gamut from on the one hand an ideal position of the current Ukrainian government collapsing and being replaced with a friendly one (which then rejects Western aid / the EU and turns back towards Moscow), to a more realistic position of this Ukrainian government being forced to the negotiating table after defeat and made to acknowledge his victory (like Georgia was in 2008) with the loss of at least the four claimed regions.

 

[WouldBe]

Apparently there are between 2000 to 3000 British volunteers fighting in Ukraine. Or were. I couldn't find how many have been killed.

8 according to ceefax.

 

[kabbes]

Is it? I ask because, as unfathomable as the thinking over there is, there is quite a lot of evidence to suggest that it isn't even at this point. As one example they are building a huge water supply pipeline to the Donbas, which kind of implies that they expect the area won't be getting water from the rest of Ukraine anytime soon.

If I had to guess his position probably runs the gamut from on the one hand an ideal position of the current Ukrainian government collapsing and being replaced with a friendly one (which then rejects Western aid / the EU and turns back towards Moscow), to a more realistic position of this Ukrainian government being forced to the negotiating table after defeat and made to acknowledge his victory (like Georgia was in 2008) with the loss of at least the four claimed regions.

When the Russians hold 6000 Ukrainian children in internment camps for “re-education”, it’s hard to see that as anything other than attempted obliteration of a culture

Thousands of Ukrainian children put through Russian ‘re-education’ camps, US report finds | Ukraine | The Guardian

New report details network of dozens of Russian camps aimed at giving children pro-Moscow views, with some children detained indefinitely

amp.theguardian.com

That position speaks to a delegitimisation of Ukraine and Ukrainians in the eyes of Putin that is not compatible with a settlement

 

[Artaxerxes]

Russia reaches out to Ukrainians as brothers


Let me tell you about my brother…

 

[The39thStep]

Is it? I ask because, as unfathomable as the thinking over there is, there is quite a lot of evidence to suggest that it isn't even at this point. As one example they are building a huge water supply pipeline to the Donbas, which kind of implies that they expect the area won't be getting water from the rest of Ukraine anytime soon.

If I had to guess his position probably runs the gamut from on the one hand an ideal position of the current Ukrainian government collapsing and being replaced with a friendly one (which then rejects Western aid / the EU and turns back towards Moscow), to a more realistic position of this Ukrainian government being forced to the negotiating table after defeat and made to acknowledge his victory (like Georgia was in 2008) with the loss of at least the four claimed regions.

This gives some idea of the Russian's intent re the occupied areas ( and also makes a larger point about war economies and wages).

"Add to that the money flowing to the reconstruction of the ruined Mariupol and other heavily destroyed Ukrainian cities in the newly annexed regions of southeastern Ukraine. Currently, workers from across Russia are recruited for the reconstruction effort and are offered double the amount they would make at home. Even a non-qualified construction worker receives more than $1,000 a month.

Recently, Russian deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin said more than 30,000 Russian workers are employed in the reconstruction of occupied Ukrainian territories, and that the government plans to increase the number to 50,000-60,000.

In the next three years, the Russian budget is expected to allocate at least $6bn for the reconstruction of the newly annexed Ukrainian territories. How much of it will not be lost to Russian crony capitalism remains to be seen."

Russia’s military Keynesianism- Volodymyr Ishchenko

 

[Rob Ray]

Certainly led to a fair bit of corruption last time the US tried it, and wasn't all that good for winning hearts and minds. There was less wholesale stealing of children for re-education going on that time round though, maybe Putin's finally cracked the strategy.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

all wars end in a negotiated settlement.

What was the negotiated settlement of the Falklands War?

Other than: Fuck off from the islands forever, we're taking your POW's home on our ships, your junta will collapse and we'll get the IMF to batter the crap out of your economy for at least 2 generations.

 

[kebabking]

Second world war, also famously not really a negotiated end...

Negotiated settlements at the end of wars aren't independent of the battlefield, they are driven by the battlefield, and the factories. They don't turn out as 'halfsies', they happen one party has pretty much achieved their war aims, and what's left isn't worth the effort required to achieve it, and for the other the acceptance of eventual defeat and a desire to salvage something that, it continues to fight, it will lose.

Both sides still think they can win, or at the least, not lose before the other caves in, so there's no driver for negotiation or compromise - for the Ukrainians of course, they also simply don't believe that the Russians will stick to any negotiated settlement, that in 5 years when they've rebuilt their military, the Russians will be back. And when 'back' means flattening your cities, deporting you children, and acting like the Einsatzgruppen on the Ost Front, they think they may as well fight now.

 

[maomao]

A negotiation that massively favours one side is still a negotiation. It may have been an unconditional surrender but it was still written on a piece of paper and had to be read by somebody.

 

[Spymaster]

A negotiation that massively favours one side is still a negotiation. It may have been an unconditional surrender but it was still written on a piece of paper and had to be read by somebody.

I don't think it's the type of negotiated settlement that TC had in mind when he said this though:

I think peace will come as part of a negotiated settlement. I want this. I don't want Ukraine and the West to "win", I don't want Russia to either win nor lose. I shudder at the endless loss of life and blighted futures.

And in fairness, "we just kicked the shit out of you, sign here or we'll do it again" isn't really negotiating.

 

[DownwardDog]

What was the negotiated settlement of the Falklands War?

Other than: Fuck off from the islands forever, we're taking your POW's home on our ships, your junta will collapse and we'll get the IMF to batter the crap out of your economy for at least 2 generations.

Ukraine isn't going to get a dominant Falklands style victory. Even if they managed to push Russia back to the 2014 borders, which looks highly unlikely, they'd still be getting shelled and visits from VVS tac air constantly. Russia probably isn't going to get a dominant Falklands style victory with kvass and medals in Lviv. So a negotiated settlement and a redrawn border remains the most likely eventual outcome.

 

[keybored]

This gives some idea of the Russian's intent re the occupied areas ( and also makes a larger point about war economies and wages).

"Add to that the money flowing to the reconstruction of the ruined Mariupol and other heavily destroyed Ukrainian cities in the newly annexed regions of southeastern Ukraine. Currently, workers from across Russia are recruited for the reconstruction effort and are offered double the amount they would make at home. Even a non-qualified construction worker receives more than $1,000 a month.

Recently, Russian deputy prime minister Marat Khusnullin said more than 30,000 Russian workers are employed in the reconstruction of occupied Ukrainian territories, and that the government plans to increase the number to 50,000-60,000.

In the next three years, the Russian budget is expected to allocate at least $6bn for the reconstruction of the newly annexed Ukrainian territories. How much of it will not be lost to Russian crony capitalism remains to be seen."

Russia’s military Keynesianism- Volodymyr Ishchenko

Yup, no expense is being spent spared there...

Red-faced Russian propagandists accidentally reveal rebuilt Mariupol homes are marred with problems

Promotional film inadvertently shows new apartments replacing bomb-damaged properties have leaks and dropped ceilings

www.telegraph.co.uk

Red-faced Russian propagandists accidentally reveal rebuilt Mariupol …

archived 18 Jan 2023 22:39:57 UTC

archive.ph

 

[maomao]

I don't think it's the type of negotiated settlement that TC had in mind when he said this though:

That's because no-one's in a position to demand a surrender; not because TC is some kind of incorrigible Putinist.

And in fairness, "we just kicked the shit out of you, sign here or we'll do it again" isn't really negotiating.

Even then there were niceties. They let the officers keep their side arms.

 

[The39thStep]

Yup, no expense is being spent spared there...

Red-faced Russian propagandists accidentally reveal rebuilt Mariupol homes are marred with problems

Promotional film inadvertently shows new apartments replacing bomb-damaged properties have leaks and dropped ceilings

www.telegraph.co.uk

Red-faced Russian propagandists accidentally reveal rebuilt Mariupol …

archived 18 Jan 2023 22:39:57 UTC

archive.ph

Sure, however, my post was to illustrate the Russian's attitude and investment toward the occupied/annexed areas not an endorsement of their building regulations.

 

[existentialist]

Ukraine isn't going to get a dominant Falklands style victory. Even if they managed to push Russia back to the 2014 borders, which looks highly unlikely, they'd still be getting shelled and visits from VVS tac air constantly. Russia probably isn't going to get a dominant Falklands style victory with kvass and medals in Lviv. So a negotiated settlement and a redrawn border remains the most likely eventual outcome.

The thing I have a problem with here is that it seems to me that, unless Russia gets the message very clearly that this kind of adventurism does not yield results, they are going to continue doing it. Sure, we might end up with a negotiated settlement, with Russia controlling great chunks of Eastern Ukraine, but that just makes the task of taking another big bite out of the country that much easier when they've built up their military again, and they're ready for another go, rinse and repeat.

And will they stop when they've grabbed most of Ukraine? I know we can probably take the propagandising with a large pinch of salt, but those Baltic republics are looking very vulnerable, and Poland's military buildup suggests that they're not exactly feeling the love, either.

It seems to me that a Russia/NATO conflict is inevitable unless there is some dramatic change in Russia's outlook, and that doesn't look likely any time soon.

And I suspect that Russia would have a massive insurgency problem in the bits of Ukraine they held on to in any case.

 

[kabbes]

Both sides still think they can win, or at the least, not lose before the other caves in, so there's no driver for negotiation or compromise - for the Ukrainians of course, they also simply don't believe that the Russians will stick to any negotiated settlement, that in 5 years when they've rebuilt their military, the Russians will be back. And when 'back' means flattening your cities, deporting you children, and acting like the Einsatzgruppen on the Ost Front, they think they may as well fight now.

To put it another way, in the long-term, a settlement isn’t enough: there needs to be reconciliation. Reconciliation is what gets you to a lack of future conflict as well as current conflict. Settlement is a prerequisite for reconciliation, but it isn’t sufficient. There also has to be some kind of acknowledgement of history, restorative justice, legitimacy of the adversary, genuine socio-political change that addresses power dynamics and a bunch of other stuff. Settlement is negotiated by representatives but reconciliation is what the people on the ground actually feel.

Ukraine have had numerous settlements in the past with Russia, but it hasn’t worked because Russia have never reconciled to Ukraine being a separate country and no genuine attempt has been made to address this. (From this perspective, far from NATO being the cause of the current war due to their activity, it could be argued that they are at fault for lacking the action that is needed to progress the reconciliation process.). A settlement at this point would simply repeat the cycle.

 

[Combustible]

The thing I have a problem with here is that it seems to me that, unless Russia gets the message very clearly that this kind of adventurism does not yield results, they are going to continue doing it. Sure, we might end up with a negotiated settlement, with Russia controlling great chunks of Eastern Ukraine, but that just makes the task of taking another big bite out of the country that much easier when they've built up their military again, and they're ready for another go, rinse and repeat.

It could all be ok as according to this US General today, Russia have already lost. Can someone ring Putin and tell him?

General Mark Milley, chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff, has said Russia has lost “strategically, operationally and tactically” and that they are “paying an enormous price on the battlefield” in Ukraine.

So on the one hand, Russia is defeated and its military severely degraded for years to come while western powers are relatively unscathed. But on the other hand they will be emboldened and will regain the means to carry out similar operations against heavily armed states under the nuclear umbrella of NATO. Bearing in mind they would need to somehow 'build up their military' more rapidly then states like Poland and the Baltic states can receive US arms. Had they successfully captured Kyiv and forced the Ukrainian government to capitulate it would be different. Obviously Ukraine surrendering territory is unpalatable, but it doesn't make the idea of Russia simply rearming and picking up where they left off credible.