Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[TopCat]

How do you see a path to a peace? How would it be achieved?

I see no end to it.

I think the war will continue with incremental losses by Ukraine, their side getting worn down over time. I think they will try harder and harder to drag the west (for "west" read current arms supplying countries) into a wider war. I don't know if that will happen though. I think each time zelensky tries to do this he is quickly put in his place by the west who are fearful of being manipulated (see missile shot down over Poland, reports of Romanian airspace being overflown by missiles, all quickly denied).

I can't see how EU countries will be able to get gas next for next winter at an affordable price.

I can see US politicians becoming exasperated with Zelensky and his endless calls for more this and that. I can see Zelensky being pushed aside for someone more Nationalistic than he is.

I think peace will come as part of a negotiated settlement. I want this. I don't want Ukraine and the West to "win", I don't want Russia to either win nor lose. I shudder at the endless loss of life and blighted futures.

 

[The39thStep]

Apparently there are between 2000 to 3000 British volunteers fighting in Ukraine. Or were. I couldn't find how many have been killed.

Doesn't sound right. Where are these figures from?

 

[TopCat]

Doesn't sound right. Where are these figures from?

High or low? I would have thought high.

 

[belboid]

Doesn't sound right. Where are these figures from?

some Georgian dude claimed it last year

Ukraine war: 3,000 British volunteers fighting on Ukrainian side against Russia, says Georgian commander

Sky News has spoken to a Georgian commander, who claims there are approximately 20,000 foreign soldiers in Ukraine, around 3,000 of which are British nationals.

news.sky.com

 

[TopCat]

Will the alive returning UK volunteers get nicked when they return? Happened to a lot of people fighting ISIS.

 

[Duncan2]

could be a figure for non Ukrainian military personnel? I hope this war ends in a negotiated settlement soon and not just for selfish reasons.We see terrible destruction at the moment in Galianthep and northern Syria and at the same moment in the same hemisphere we have two countries inflicting similar misery on each other-deliberately using tanks and missiles. All of which i know will be regarded by most on here as naive at best.
I never know what to believe in the reporting of this conflict.There seems to be a school of thought that the Americans blew up Nordstream 2 a piece of infrastructure built by Germany with Russia at cost of billions.If this is true or even if it is simply believed by many Germans how likely is it that Zelensky is going to get much more than half-hearted support in that quarter.Not claiming to be aware of the facts here just wondering out loud.

 

[TopCat]

It could all be ok as according to this US General today, Russia have already lost. Can someone ring Putin and tell him?

General Mark Milley, chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff, has said Russia has lost “strategically, operationally and tactically” and that they are “paying an enormous price on the battlefield” in Ukraine.

 

[TopCat]

could be a figure for non Ukrainian military personnel? I hope this war ends in a negotiated settlement soon and not just for selfish reasons.We see terrible destruction at the moment in Galianthep and northern Syria and at the same moment in the same hemisphere we have two countries inflicting similar misery on each other-deliberately using tanks and missiles. All of which i know will be regarded by most on here as naive at best.
I never know what to believe in the reporting of this conflict.There seems to be a school of thought that the Americans blew up Nordstream 2 a piece of infrastructure built by Germany with Russia at cost of billions.If this is true or even if it is simply believed by many Germans how likely is it that Zelensky is going to get much more than half-hearted support in that quarter.Not claiming to be aware of the facts here just wondering out loud.

No honest person thinks the Russians blew up Nordstream 2.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Will the alive returning UK volunteers get nicked when they return? Happened to a lot of people fighting ISIS.

I mean technically it's illegal, but imagine the backlash if it was chosen to prosecute them.

 

[TopCat]

I mean technically it's illegal, but imagine the backlash if it was chosen to prosecute them.

Be interesting to compare and contrast though.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Be interesting to compare and contrast though.

Yes. ISIS burned people alive and chopped heads off. Ukraine are protecting themselves against an invading power.

 

[existentialist]

How do you see a path to a peace? How would it be achieved?

I see no end to it.

I think the war will continue with incremental losses by Ukraine, their side getting worn down over time. I think they will try harder and harder to drag the west (for "west" read current arms supplying countries) into a wider war. I don't know if that will happen though. I think each time zelensky tries to do this he is quickly put in his place by the west who are fearful of being manipulated (see missile shot down over Poland, reports of Romanian airspace being overflown by missiles, all quickly denied).

I can't see how EU countries will be able to get gas next for next winter at an affordable price.

I can see US politicians becoming exasperated with Zelensky and his endless calls for more this and that. I can see Zelensky being pushed aside for someone more Nationalistic than he is.

I think peace will come as part of a negotiated settlement. I want this. I don't want Ukraine and the West to "win", I don't want Russia to either win nor lose. I shudder at the endless loss of life and blighted futures.

It sounds almost as if you have some kind of personal animus towards Zelenskiy?

 

[TopCat]

Yes. ISIS burned people alive and chopped heads off. Ukraine are protecting themselves against an invading power.

So fighting ISIS bad, fighting Russia good?

 

[TopCat]

It sounds almost as if you have some kind of personal animus towards Zelenskiy?

I think leadership has a great responsibility and that he is leading his people to disaster.

 

[The39thStep]

some Georgian dude claimed it last year

Ukraine war: 3,000 British volunteers fighting on Ukrainian side against Russia, says Georgian commander

Sky News has spoken to a Georgian commander, who claims there are approximately 20,000 foreign soldiers in Ukraine, around 3,000 of which are British nationals.

news.sky.com

Hardly the most reliable source, he denied that his Legion were involved in war crimes even though their identity was verified by a number of war journalists including the NYT. In any case he won't have access to any such data or numbers.

I'd be surprised if there has been more than 500 max that have travelled to Ukraine

 

[maomao]

Yes. ISIS burned people alive and chopped heads off. Ukraine are protecting themselves against an invading power.

I think we're talking about the people who were fighting against ISIS not for them.

 

[Artaxerxes]

The war will end in a negotiated settlement, all wars end in a negotiated settlement.

Any fighting Ukraine is doing is to acheive a settlement that isn't "Russia does what it wants to do in Ukraine which is wipe out Ukrainian culture and claim domination" until the fighting causes Russia to change that objective then the only settlement Russia will accept is "we win and we'll continue to murder people within your borders with impunity, especially when the war is over and the murder squads arrive"

 

[TopCat]

I think we're talking about the people who were fighting against ISIS not for them.

Sorry I thought I was clear. Lots of mainly left wing types went to fight ISIS. The Border Force and Special Branch were on them when they returned. Since then I think, the laws about going to fight in wars abroad have been toughened up.

 

[TopCat]

The war will end in a negotiated settlement, all wars end in a negotiated settlement.

Any fighting Ukraine is doing is to acheive a settlement that isn't "Russia does what it wants to do in Ukraine which is wipe out Ukrainian culture and claim domination" until the fighting causes Russia to change that objective then the only settlement Russia will accept is "we win and we'll continue to murder people within your borders with impunity, especially when the war is over and the murder squads arrive"

Could you consider using italics or something to denote your hypothetical Russian war aims rather than using quotes? Or if you are quoting then please say who? I suspect you have a good point, it's just a bit obscured.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

I think we're talking about the people who were fighting against ISIS not for them.

Oh. Hard to know when you've got people on both sides.

Edit. Reading fail on my part.

 

[LDC]

Doesn't sound right. Where are these figures from?

Yeah I think that's far too high although it is a commonly quoted number.

Plenty wanted to go when it started. I'd bet most were totally unsuitable and were deluded. A far smaller number got there, some of them got rejected, and then some left as soon it the reality hit.

 

[LDC]

Sorry I thought I was clear. Lots of mainly left wing types went to fight ISIS. The Border Force and Special Branch were on them when they returned. Since then I think, the laws about going to fight in wars abroad have been toughened up.

Not sure of the exact figures but I'd guess less than 2-300 absolute maximum fought on the side of the SDF/Kurds (of various political stripes) and I'd say that's stretching it to people that turned up, posed a bit and then fucked off or were fucked off. Some people went and attended the 'training academy' but then never fought or served in a fighting unit, but did civilian work. (It also obviously attracted some total fruit loops of various types.)

Whether the police did much to them on return was partly related to how much they were posting stuff on social media tbh. And I don't think the laws have been changed at all for fighting in foreign conflicts, it's the same enlistment or similar rules since the 1870s iirc. The difference is they can get you under terrorism laws rather than foreign war fighting laws if they so choose. It also changed, early on people were fine coming and going, but the authorities did get more tight later on.

 

[Duncan2]

The war will end in a negotiated settlement, all wars end in a negotiated settlement.

Any fighting Ukraine is doing is to acheive a settlement that isn't "Russia does what it wants to do in Ukraine which is wipe out Ukrainian culture and claim domination" until the fighting causes Russia to change that objective then the only settlement Russia will accept is "we win and we'll continue to murder people within your borders with impunity, especially when the war is over and the murder squads arrive"

that all wars end in a negotiated settlement is more than we know

 

[maomao]

There would surely be some sort of defence for anyone who went in February last year in that the foreign secretary at the time said she encouraged British fighters to go.

 

[LDC]

Not sure that, "Liz Truss told me to do it" is going to get you much sympathy or be a very good legal get-out-of-jail card tbh.

 

[The39thStep]

Yeah I think that's far too high although it is a commonly quoted number.

Plenty wanted to go when it started. I'd bet most were totally unsuitable and were deluded. A far smaller number got there, some of them got rejected, and then some left as soon it the reality hit.

I think its commonly quoted mainly on the basis of sloppy and sensationalist journalism tbh. There were some UK 'soldiers of fortune' already in Ukraine before the invasion, only a handful as Azov were no longer permitted to officially recruit foreign fighters. The route was sign for a militia, very often the Georgian Legion as it took foreign fighters and could be contacted directly , fast track Ukrainian citizenship and then join Azov. That was the route that Pinner et al took .

There was an initial flurry of let's go and fight the Russians and some went and then left due to the chaos ( if you remember there was that incident when Ukraine soldiers allegedly attacked UK soldiers) the National Legion was announced but then their barracks were bombed which led to a number of alleged deaths and more returning, there are a number of UK volunteers missing. Numbers are difficult to verify people as slip in and out of the country and obviously, most don't want the attention.

 

[Duncan2]

Not sure that, "Liz Truss told me to do it" is going to get you much sympathy or be a very good legal get-out-of-jail card tbh.

acting as the agent of HMG though.Being a proven simpleton surely neither here nor there.

 

[The39thStep]

Not sure of the exact figures but I'd guess less than 2-300 absolute maximum fought on the side of the SDF/Kurds (of various political stripes) and I'd say that's stretching it to people that turned up, posed a bit and then fucked off or were fucked off. Some people went and attended the 'training academy' but then never fought or served in a fighting unit, but did civilian work. (It also obviously attracted some total fruit loops of various types.)

Whether the police did much to them on return was partly related to how much they were posting stuff on social media tbh. And I don't think the laws have been changed at all for fighting in foreign conflicts, it's the same enlistment or similar rules since the 1870s iirc. The difference is they can get you under terrorism laws rather than foreign war fighting laws if they so choose. It also changed, early on people were fine coming and going, but the authorities did get more tight later on.

There was one who was arrested and prosecuted whose partner went to UKIP and the DFLA for support .

 

[Artaxerxes]

acting as the agent of HMG though.Being a proven simpleton surely neither here nor there.

Idiocy in its cabinet members is a feature not a bug

 

[TopCat]

acting as the agent of HMG though.Being a proven simpleton surely neither here nor there.

Could be years down the line though. One of those special courts.