Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[frogwoman]

Do we think there is any chance of a collapse of the regime? I know what follows might actually be worse, but a more hardline coup happens, they will have to at least lick their wounds and Ukraine can get full NATO membership.

I think a collapse of the regime is very likely tbh although western sanctions havent had nearly the effect they were 'supposed to'. Prigozhin etc are already flexing their muscles and acting not entirely under the thumb of Putin

 

[frogwoman]

Putin would be a fool to go for more mobilisation, remember that even he resisted it as long as he could even though the Z fans were calling for it

 

[frogwoman]

Endless grinding standoff (if that is what this is) of this level destroys Ukraine and Ukrainian civilian lives. It doesn't seem sustainable to me. Its all well and good being told by Olena Zelrnska We Will Endure but i know I couldn't hack living with no power or water.

Other way round I think. Remember Zelensky was calling for negotiations in the first days of the war but it was completely politically untenable ...

 

[A380]

The thing about regime change in places like Putin's Russia is it always looks impossible till it happens. Very rare for it to be predicted till people are hanging from petrol station forecourts (or buying McMansions on the Palm).

Putin might be there for another 20 years. Or he might be gone by Christmas.

 

[bluescreen]

What about regime change in Ukraine? I haven't seen any chatter about it lately but it's surely not off the cards is it?

 

[frogwoman]

It's not Zelensky stopping Ukrainians from wanting to stop fighting lol.

I'm not a Ukrainian politics expert but probably off the cards for now. he's very popular but that could change if they suddenly lose a load of territory or if he did a ceasefire deal under pressure from the US/EU

 

[frogwoman]

He's only been president since 2019 and Ukrainian politics is pretty turbulent so who knows...but yeah probably not for now

 

[bluescreen]

I wasn't thinking so much sufficient natural opposition to him but externally manufactured and manipulated.. Can imagine both Russia and western powers would have an interest in that.

 

[frogwoman]

I wasn't thinking so much sufficient natural opposition to him but externally manufactured and manipulated.. Can imagine both Russia and western powers would have an interest in that.

I'd still say it is unlikely to succeed as it would have little popular support but not impossible

 

[elbows]

I've been convinced for a long time now this is basically the end of it in terms of territory changes, give or take a kilometer or two, and if it is then negotiations to stop the war should happen sooner rather than later for the sake of the people suffering.

I dont believe in having a fixed opinion about that, because I believe such claims about territory also existed well before Ukraine took back a bunch of it, and those were obviously wrong.

There are probably too many variables to make confident claims about further possibilities and what the endgame might look like. Claims about the pace of territorial change slowing during the brutal winter months may have much more merit, but that will just be a temporary state of affairs.

 

[mojo pixy]

Do we think there is any chance of a collapse of the regime? I know what follows might actually be worse, but a more hardline coup happens, they will have to at least lick their wounds and Ukraine can get full NATO membership.

It certainly looks like there are no outcomes that are at the same time realistic and also positive. Not for Ukraine, not for Russia and not really for anyone else either. In the short term, the best thing would be if Putin 'falls from a window' but I know I'm not alone in suspecting that in the long term, that's unlikely to improve things on a global scale.

I'd try harder to avoid posting on this, it's really bad for my health, but my problems are as nothing to the troubles besetting other people because of this war.

Endless grinding standoff (if that is what this is) of this level destroys Ukraine and Ukrainian civilian lives. It doesn't seem sustainable to me.

Indeed .. as already said, we only need to look at Chechnya to see how that will go.

Its all well and good being told by Olena Zelrnska We Will Endure but i know I couldn't hack living with no power or water.

I heard some interviews with everyday people from Kyiv last night and it was really hard to listen to, even trying to imagine how life is there just now. No heating, no water, no light, and winter has barely even begun yet.

 

[Ĝasper]

A Russian victory in Ukraine would embolden the worst scumbags on Earth, yes including those such as the Polish government who are on Ukraine's side geopolitically at the moment...

Are you suggesting that the Polish government would carve up Ukraine?

 

[Pickman's model]

Are you suggesting that the Polish government would carve up Ukraine?

it'd be a change for poland to carve up another country, usually it's the other way round

 

[elbows]

I think its fair to say that the IAEA were not happy that the situation with Ukraines power grid meant all their nuclear reactors lost offsite power the other day.

They even made a stern video about it with a black background. Features sentiments such as the world needing to pay attention to the other nuclear power plants there and that 'the time to act is now' but without detail or a way to get there, that doesnt amount to much.



Meanwhile they did get offsite power back at Zaporizhzhya, which meant they could put two of the reactors back into 'warm shutdown' which at least enables steam to be provided to the site and heat to the nearby city. This latest statement also says they were getting ready to restore grid connectivity to the other nuclear sites 'if the power system is ready'.

Update 132 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA

www.iaea.org

 

[frogwoman]

Are you suggesting that the Polish government would carve up Ukraine?

No I'm saying that a Russian victory would enable a ton of would be Putins to carry out that sort of agenda domestically and probably internationally as well

 

[frogwoman]

Including those who currently support Ukraine for geopolitical reasons

 

[Ĝasper]

I mean i know they were a big power in the 1600s, but i can't see them trying to expand by force. More likely that if the EU keep dithering about Ukraine that the Visegrad group takes them in, and maybe boots Hungary out. More like Pilsudski's Intermarium proposal, which was actually being promoted on the Ukrainian far right.

 

[nogojones]

Are you suggesting that the Polish government would carve up Ukraine?

Well they do have a little bit of form for this

 

[kebabking]

I don't see the US putting their hand on Ukraine's shoulder and say 'maybe it's time for a chat...' any time soon - the US has seen Russian conventional land power halved for a pitiful investment of less than 1% of its defence budget in less than a year.

For the eastern NATO/EU states, it's simply about survival - they absolutely see that any pressure on Ukraine to fold is a precursor to the same happening to them. They firmly believe that every Russian tank destroyed in Ukraine is a Russian tank that can't roll across their own borders. They won't be 'being realistic' before hell freezes over...

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah Ukraine is currently winning - why would they surrender in that case? I don't really see it as a grinding war of attrition tbh

 

[ska invita]

Yeah Ukraine is currently winning - why would they surrender in that case? I don't really see it as a grinding war of attrition tbh

Russias switch to attacking civilian infrastructure makes it a one-sided grinding war for Ukranian people living in Ukraine , with those civilians carrying the weight for all those ambitions and desires kebabking spells out

The 'Ukraine is Winning' narrative is so easy to say but what does it practically mean on the ground? What would driving the Russian army out look like from here?

 

[frogwoman]

Russia dont have unlimited weapons and every attack against civilians is an attack that's not against the military. Russian troops are being sent to battle with almost no proper equipment and in some cases no equipment at all and winter is setting in. They've lost a lot of places which helped them refuel and are facing disruption to supply lines, against a population that hate them

Even another mobilisation isn't gonna save them and Putin would be an idiot to attempt it imo

 

[CNT36]

it'd be a change for poland to carve up another country, usually it's the other way round

I reckon the nationalists will still be up for grabbing the rest of Galicia.

 

[CNT36]

Russia dont have unlimited weapons and every attack against civilians is an attack that's not against the military. Russian troops are being sent to battle with almost no proper equipment and in some cases no equipment at all and winter is setting in. They've lost a lot of places which helped them refuel and are facing disruption to supply lines, against a population that hate them

Even another mobilisation isn't gonna save them and Putin would be an idiot to attempt it imo

Yeah, attacking civilian targets diverts resources from military targets and that can have serious implications for actually fighting a war.

 

[kebabking]

I think strategically it's also something of a courageous plan - missile attacks on hospitals, blocks of flats etc, energy infrastructure etc.. is far more likely to ensure that ever larger quantities of ever more capable weapons systems make their way to Ukraine.

Vlad has probably made the calculation that the atrocities, and the poor living conditions brought about by the damage/destruction of Ukraines power generation and distribution system - as well as his long standing belief that western Europe will cave - give him a negotiated result before the Ukrainian army defeats the Russian army.

He might be right, but he might not...

 

[frogwoman]

There's a limited number of people they can mobilise, let alone who would want to go. They're scraping the barrel as it is.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Rumour has it that Vlad’s planning on another conscription mobilisation of 2 million poor sods, including 300,000 women.

 

[kabbes]

Rumour has it that Vlad’s planning on another conscription mobilisation of 2 million poor sods, including 300,000 women.

And he’s going to give them, what, some particularly pointy sticks?

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah, attacking civilian targets diverts resources from military targets and that can have serious implications for actually fighting a war.

Wars never are fought purely between two armies and it's naive to suggest they are

 

[Raheem]

And he’s going to give them, what, some particularly pointy sticks?

Vlad the Impaler