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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

For some reason Boris Johnson was invited to the anniversary of CNN Portugal where he gave an interviews or interviews on a number of subjects including Ukraine and Brexit .Obviously the interviews reveal his crucial and successful role in everything but in particular he managed to inform viewers that in regarding Ukraine, Germany thought Ukraine would collapse and that it would be better if it was all over quickly ,France were 'in denial' after Macron spoke to Putin and Italy didn't want any part in supplying either weapons or sanctions .


Not unbelievable tbh, Ukraines ability to defy the Russians, Zelenskys oratory and leadership all saw a stark change in the standard response of western countries to Putins aggression over last twenty years.
 
Not unbelievable tbh, Ukraines ability to defy the Russians, Zelenskys oratory and leadership all saw a stark change in the standard response of western countries to Putins aggression over last twenty years.
You can see why Russia is so keen to personalise the conflict around Zelenskyy - he's been a gamechanger. The gerontocracy must really fucking hate him!
 
Grim:

Surely counterproductive too? At some point, having suffered like that, far from fighting harder you'd be ready for it all to be over.

I don't really understand what Russia thinks the endgame looks like for their own society. They're going to have a lot (or at least a few) heavily combat hardened veterans returning to a country that did this to them and their friends, for nothing. Is it considered likely they'll just fade back into the towns and families they were ripped from, and occasionally turn out to gratefully salute their commander in chief?
 
Surely counterproductive too? At some point, having suffered like that, far from fighting harder you'd be ready for it all to be over.

I don't really understand what Russia thinks the endgame looks like for their own society. They're going to have a lot (or at least a few) heavily combat hardened veterans returning to a country that did this to them and their friends, for nothing. Is it considered likely they'll just fade back into the towns and families they were ripped from, and occasionally turn out to gratefully salute their commander in chief?
From my understanding most of the conscripts have been mostly plucked from out of the way places like Dagestan and relative backwaters. I guess the thinking is that any who do make it back to cause trouble can be put down much more easily than if they were from more "important" places like Moscow and St Petersburg.
 
Surely counterproductive too? At some point, having suffered like that, far from fighting harder you'd be ready for it all to be over.

I don't really understand what Russia thinks the endgame looks like for their own society. They're going to have a lot (or at least a few) heavily combat hardened veterans returning to a country that did this to them and their friends, for nothing. Is it considered likely they'll just fade back into the towns and families they were ripped from, and occasionally turn out to gratefully salute their commander in chief?

I'm not even sure it's a thought through, deliberate decision worked out on a blank sheet of paper - it's simply how the Russian Army works, and has always worked. It's their military and political culture, and always has been. It's a culture that's survived the political and philosophical changes from Empire to Soviet Union, and from Soviet Union to kind-of-democratic liberal Russia of the 1990's, through to whatever the hell Russia is now.

Brutality and repression does, sometimes,stop working, but while it's working it works.
 
Surely counterproductive too? At some point, having suffered like that, far from fighting harder you'd be ready for it all to be over.

I don't really understand what Russia thinks the endgame looks like for their own society. They're going to have a lot (or at least a few) heavily combat hardened veterans returning to a country that did this to them and their friends, for nothing. Is it considered likely they'll just fade back into the towns and families they were ripped from, and occasionally turn out to gratefully salute their commander in chief?
Russian rulers have consistently not given a toss about the physical or mental well being of their subjects, particularly outside of the Great Russian heartlands. Why should Putin be any different?
 
I'm not even sure it's a thought through, deliberate decision worked out on a blank sheet of paper - it's simply how the Russian Army works, and has always worked. It's their military and political culture, and always has been. It's a culture that's survived the political and philosophical changes from Empire to Soviet Union, and from Soviet Union to kind-of-democratic liberal Russia of the 1990's, through to whatever the hell Russia is now.

Brutality and repression does, sometimes,stop working, but while it's working it works.
I'd say that brutality and repression inevitably stops working, but it quite often takes a long time.
 
Grim:

Fuck, that is awful. What shitty, pointless war and what pointless suffering while Putin lives in luxury.
 
The place is the poorest country in Europe, way worse than the most deprived places in the UK with no social support etc to speak of. Over half of Moldova's power was knocked out by Putin's missiles and they're heading into winter
Not questioning that at all, it's a tragedy...I can't imagine it's going to be much easier elsewhere in much of Ukraine this winter
 
Russian rulers have consistently not given a toss about the physical or mental well being of their subjects, particularly outside of the Great Russian heartlands. Why should Putin be any different?
Well yes, why should he? Equally, why shouldn't he? For the first decade and more, he was largely viewed as a benevolent dictator - and he could've chosen to be exactly that. He'd be living less fearfully for start. And he must worry for his children (not least after he's gone) which wouldn't be so necessary had he not gone in this direction. They could've been set with multi generational wealth and no particular enemies who really hate the name itself. There was self interest in not acting the way he has. Who knows.
 
It sounds weird but Russia didn't really seem like a dictatorship as little as a few years ago
I'm sure, internally. From the outside it seemed like one, but kind of a comedy lite version of one (if you ignored Chechnya, and some other particularly glaring deficiencies) - and quite interesting, somewhere with appeal. And there, at the head of it all, was the inappropriate uncle - a bit of a rogue, given to outbursts like ironically barebacking wild animals to demonstrate his hetero credentials, maybe pushing the joke a little too far sometimes but still usually with a cheeky smile. Now, not so much. That was actively his choice, and it seems like a strangely self limiting one.
 
Well yes, why should he? Equally, why shouldn't he? For the first decade and more, he was largely viewed as a benevolent dictator - and he could've chosen to be exactly that. He'd be living less fearfully for start. And he must worry for his children (not least after he's gone) which wouldn't be so necessary had he not gone in this direction. They could've been set with multi generational wealth and no particular enemies who really hate the name itself. There was self interest in not acting the way he has. Who knows.
Firstly, there's no such thing as a benevolent dictator. Not really. Some are better than others. That's all you can say.
Secondly, he has been down the route of militaristic adventurism for quite some time, with suppressing Chechnya, and then invading Georgia, supporting secessionists in South Ossetia, Transnistria,Abkhazia etc, turning Belarus back into a client state. The direction of travel was obvious some time ago. It's the acceleration that is something of a surprise, and more than a bit scary.
 
Firstly, there's no such thing as a benevolent dictator. Not really. Some are better than others. That's all you can say.
Secondly, he has been down the route of militaristic adventurism for quite some time, with suppressing Chechnya, and then invading Georgia, supporting secessionists in South Ossetia, Transnistria,Abkhazia etc, turning Belarus back into a client state. The direction of travel was obvious some time ago. It's the acceleration that is something of a surprise, and more than a bit scary.
Yes, I know, and was cognizant of all that and more. It's just that besides that, it was a disconnect to be truly scared of someone so eccentric, with bad plastic surgery and a taste for parody rococo interiors.
 
Putin's way of keeping the population subdued was to disengage them from politics or wanting to overthrow him rather than relying on massive amounts of repression. There definitely was repression and I don't want to minimise that but it was quite possible to criticise Putin in opposition media outlets or academic articles, or attend political meetings criticising him for example without many problems, even today there are limited places for debate. Although a lot of it is staged by the Kremlin itself like with those awful talk shows, but that was always the case with Putin's hall of mirrors
 
Yes, I know, and was cognizant of all that and more. It's just that besides that, it was a disconnect to be truly scared of someone so eccentric, with bad plastic surgery and a taste for parody rococo interiors.
Well a lot of people weren't scared until it was too late, maybe they should have been.

Putin propagated the idea very successfully that 'its nothing to do with me'
 
Well a lot of people weren't scared until it was too late, maybe they should have been.

Putin propagated the idea very successfully that 'its nothing to do with me'
Yes, exactly. He's an interesting live case of the genre, that's all. And in addition to the millions of lives he's fucked up, and the millions more he will fuck up, his own life must be included in that tally. Not in a sympathetic way at all, just in a kind of breathtaking way. Breathtaking at him, at myself in spite of myself, at others - so many others. He was really good at what he was doing, and really good at doing it in plain sight, until he just wasn't.

I like to think of him driven mad with envy. He must've thought Zelensky was some kid from the sticks. He'd seen off so many, he'd quickly see off this one too. How astonishing it must've been when so many people actually and very rapidly came to the opposite conclusion. For a man of such vanity, even the very blatantly petty stuff of how many people wanted Zelensky to throw them against the nearest wall for a fuck must've stung like hell.

It's a tragedy that he's dragged everyone else down with him, but it's also a curious individual case of totally fucking up everything in your life, including your own psyche, for absolutely nothing. That's the really amazing bit - this was all for absolutely nothing. Of course we know that some people do that, some attain leadership, and go on to destruction and spectacular implosion. But the scale of his own personal implosion is absolutely breathtaking.

He is a real life Bond villain for the social media age. Stranger than fiction.
 
Zelensky had a reputation as being pro Russian or at least neutral (he pissed off Ukrainian nationalists with his opposition to a cultural boycott of Russia) and was from a largely Russian speaking region, also he didn't believe American warnings of an invasion initially. I think the role hes taken on has probably taken him by surprise tbh
 
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