Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

Yes, exactly. He's an interesting live case of the genre, that's all. And in addition to the millions of lives he's fucked up, and the millions more he will fuck up, his own life must be included in that tally. Not in a sympathetic way at all, just in a kind of breathtaking way. Breathtaking at him, at myself in spite of myself, at others - so many others. He was really good at what he was doing, and really good at doing it in plain sight, until he just wasn't.

I like to think of him driven mad with envy. He must've thought Zelensky was some kid from the sticks. He'd seen off so many, he'd quickly see off this one too. How astonishing it must've been when so many people actually and very rapidly came to the opposite conclusion. For a man of such vanity, even the very blatantly petty stuff of how many people wanted Zelensky to throw them against the nearest wall for a fuck must've stung like hell.

It's a tragedy that he's dragged everyone else down with him, but it's also a curious individual case of totally fucking up everything in your life, including your own psyche, for absolutely nothing. That's the really amazing bit - this was all for absolutely nothing. Of course we know that some people do that, some attain leadership, and go on to destruction and spectacular implosion. But the scale of his own personal implosion is absolutely breathtaking.

He is a real life Bond villain for the social media age. Stranger than fiction.

Not to anyone who's read macbeth

 

[Tanya1982]

Well a lot of people weren't scared until it was too late, maybe they should have been.

Putin propagated the idea very successfully that 'its nothing to do with me'

I meant to say, as well as yes. Or. Or, everyone knew what he was doing, but not enough people minded that much - even people who really would've minded in almost all other circumstances. It's an interesting phenomenon in its own right.

 

[frogwoman]

I meant to say, as well as yes. Or. Or, everyone knew what he was doing, but not enough people minded that much - even people who really would've minded in almost all other circumstances. It's an interesting phenomenon in its own right.

I think a lot of people really didn't know what he was doing though. Or took the view 'oh, I don't know about politics, Putin sorts all that stuff out, and he's been doing OK for the last 20 years'

And with how bad things were in the 90s, compared to that whatever he was up to seemed preferable to a lot of people.

 

[Tanya1982]

I think a lot of people really didn't know what he was doing though. Or took the view 'oh, I don't know about politics, Putin sorts all that stuff out, and he's been doing OK for the last 20 years'

And with how bad things were in the 90s, compared to that whatever he was up to seemed preferable to a lot of people.

Ahh, in Russia itself you mean. Yes, of course. Really quite understandable for many of them. I meant more outside - you could see him on the stage with his hand up the dummy's arse, almost the whole way along, but 'that's Vlad' was practically the point of the show.

 

[NoXion]

Grim:

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Dozens of Russian soldiers who have been imprisoned and starved in a basement have been forced back to the front lines at gunpoint by the Russian Army, according to relatives. Some are reportedly si...…

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What I find interesting about this is, are all the Russian military resources that must be being wasted on this kind of harsh brutalisation of one's own troops. I imagine those guards must have been in decent enough shape, and likely had more functioning equipment than the poor sods they had caged.

 

[frogwoman]

Ahh, in Russia itself you mean. Yes, of course. Really quite understandable for many of them. I meant more outside - you could see him on the stage with his hand up the dummy's arse, almost the whole way along, but 'that's Vlad' was practically the point of the show.

That's what he wanted tho, the same with the North Korean regime in some respects

 

[tim]

From my understanding most of the conscripts have been mostly plucked from out of the way places like Dagestan and relative backwaters. I guess the thinking is that any who do make it back to cause trouble can be put down much more easily than if they were from more "important" places like Moscow and St Petersburg.

Yes, a bit like the British Army and the Gurkhas. Except that the latter have fewer rights.

 

[frogwoman]

Yes, a bit like the British Army and the Gurkhas. Except that the latter have fewer rights.

It's not really the same. Gurkhas aren't conscripted, they're an elite regiment. They're recruiting from a country that has it's own armed forces and is not even part of the commonwealth any more iirc. Not saying it's not a dodgy colonial hangover but Russia's role in this is far worse

 

[frogwoman]

You can point this out without being silly about it or making out like Dagestani soldiers somehow have it better ffs

 

[nogojones]

Yes, a bit like the British Army and the Gurkhas. Except that the latter have fewer rights.

I'm not sure how many rights Russian conscripts have, but yeah it's not a uniquely Russian thing that their army will be made up of people from the poorest areas. And while there are strong economic and social reasons why some Nepalese lad might join the Gurkas, at least they do have some choice in the matter.

 

[frogwoman]

Becoming a Gurkha

www.gurkhabde.com

Becoming a Gurkha

“These boys will give everything to try and get into the British Army.”

stories.forces.net

They have 300-400 people joining every year (and around 10,000 applicants), it really isn't the same as the situation in places like Dagestan with people being rounded up and put on buses to go to 'the meat grinder'. I'm not saying it's great but the situations really aren't comparable - the requirements are so high that many who join will be from upper/mc backgrounds and better universities too

But, yeah the aim for Russian propaganda wasnt to get people to love Putin necessarily, even people in Russia - they've funded far right anti Russian groups in Ukraine before lol. One of its big aims is to confuse the hell out of you and have people being like 'Yeah but how do i know the bodies aren't staged or that those nice Russian lads aren't just tourists' or whatever it is.

During the elections he would personally approve particular candidates like Sobchak and Zhirinovsky etc. Theres even stories about Russian state telling people from the communist party it had to seem more left wing lol. and so they would all be on TV in like a semblance of a debate between several caricatures of political positions (far left, far right, pro business etc) and occasionally criticise him too, but he would never appear in these debates, and so appears to be 'above politics' and these petty squabbles. And some people might even like some of these candidates but then not vote because they don't have a chance. and then Putin will get in anyway.

 

[teqniq]

Straight out of the Syria playbook. Anyone who thinks this was an accident?

 

[frogwoman]

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Was everyone up in arms though? Most stuff I read was quite understanding that if the Russians hadn't been firing missiles at Ukraine, then a Ukrainian one wouldn't have gone astray. It might have gone smoother if Ukraine had accepted it was theirs shortly afterwards, but other then I think it's a false premise.

 

[CNT36]

Straight out of the Syria playbook. Anyone who thinks this was an accident?

No words.

 

[CNT36]

Was everyone up in arms though? Most stuff I read was quite understanding that if the Russians hadn't been firing missiles at Ukraine, then a Ukrainian one wouldn't have gone astray. It might have gone smoother if Ukraine had accepted it was theirs shortly afterwards, but other then I think it's a false premise.

They were up in arms that it happened but mainly at the Russians. Rightly.

To initiate a war of aggression, therefore, is not only an international crime; it is the supreme international crime differing only from other war crimes in that it contains within itself the accumulated evil of the whole.

 

[ska invita]

I guess its normalised in the sense that it is now normal Russian military practice for years.

But it is a hard thing to report on for pro-Ukrainian media in the west as it is a narrative that if given any adequate treatment would make people think 'perhaps this war should be ended asap to stop the devastating mass suffering of innocents'. Which is a big part of what Russia is trying to do with these civilian attacks. Its not like the coming of "spring" or "summer" actually make the conditions that much better, though of course cold is particularly deadly...how long can people put up with this?

So what now...?
I'd like to see any military analyst project what would be the best case next steps for Ukraine now leading to a Ukrainian 'victory', because I cant see one. Analysts Ive read seem to agree that the south west Kherson region can be well defended by Russian forces due to geography...the push if there is to be one is in the east of the occupied territory (my arrows>>)



Even if somehow Ukraine successfully pushed Russian troops all the way out of these eastern areas that would isolate the western occupied territory and I could imagine Russia going nuclear in response.

I've been convinced for a long time now this is basically the end of it in terms of territory changes, give or take a kilometer or two, and if it is then negotiations to stop the war should happen sooner rather than later for the sake of the people suffering.

Anyone seen someone demonstrate what the most optimistic Ukrainians 'victory' could like like now?

 

[frogwoman]

Does anyone seriously think the suffering would end if Russia won? Not sure that follows at all.

 

[frogwoman]

How did the various ceasefires work out in the Middle East for instance...

 

[ska invita]

Does anyone seriously think the suffering would end if Russia won? Not sure that follows at all.

Ceasefire would follow no?

 

[frogwoman]

Ceasefire would follow no?

How did that work out in places like Palestine?

 

[frogwoman]

Or Chechnya, to take somewhere closer to home

 

[ska invita]

Or Chechnya, to take somewhere closer to home

Months ago I expected it would deteriorate into lower level geuerrilla style warfare against occupied territories... That will likely go on for decades. There's a significant difference to that and full mobilisation with the degree of shelling now. Deescelation is a thing. It doesn't mean it becomes peacetime

 

[frogwoman]

So in other words the suffering won't end if Russia is able to get some sort of victory ans could potentially go on for years

 

[ska invita]

So in other words the suffering won't end if Russia is able to get some sort of victory ans could potentially go on for years

Will go on for years no doubt, it was going on before the Russian invasion . But at what level of fighting?

Clearly if the war carries on at current levels Russia will prioritise terrorising civilians as they are well practiced in doing.

There are different degrees of fighting.

Full Russian Withdrawal sounds great but is from what I can tell totally unrealistic. So now what?

 

[mojo pixy]

I don't believe Russian victory happens when Ukraine stops fighting. At this point, Russian victory only happens when Ukraine is humiliated and helpless.

If they had surrendered in March, maybe just stopping fighting would have been enough to satisfy Putin, but after this much time, this much resistance and a decent degree of victory (though obviously not enough to actually eject Russia) well, I can't see Putin's Russia being OK with a draw. They will be aiming to punish the temerity of this so-called 'nation' for even daring to resist, and aiming to make an example of it. Things will not get better if Ukraine stops fighting.

Also, there's the issue of punishing 'the west' for helping. No, I think we're all in a bit of a corner now tbh.

 

[frogwoman]

Will go on for years no doubt, it was going on before the Russian invasion . But at what level of fighting?

Clearly if the war carries on at current levels Russia will prioritise terrorising civilians as they are well practiced in doing.

There are different degrees of fighting.

Full Russian Withdrawal sounds great but is from what I can tell totally unrealistic. So now what?

Given what's happened since Feb if you think terrorisation of civilians or even escalation and nuke threats would end with a 'ceasefire' now, well, that's optimistic...

 

[frogwoman]

A Russian victory in Ukraine would embolden the worst scumbags on Earth, yes including those such as the Polish government who are on Ukraine's side geopolitically at the moment...

 

[ska invita]

I don't believe Russian victory happens when Ukraine stops fighting. At this point, Russian victory only happens when Ukraine is humiliated and helpless.

If they had surrendered in March, maybe just stopping fighting would have been enough to satisfy Putin, but after this much time, this much resistance and a decent degree of victory (though obviously not enough to actually eject Russia) well, I can't see Putin's Russia being OK with a draw. They will be aiming to punish the temerity of this so-called 'nation' for even daring to resist, and aiming to make an example of it. Things will not get better if Ukraine stops fighting.

Also, there's the issue of punishing 'the west' for helping. No, I think we're all in a bit of a corner now tbh.

It definitely feels like a corner, agree.

For Russia consolidating the territory they currently occupy isn't really a draw, it is a massive gain, though of course they have paid a big cost for it. Id like to think that's enough for Putin. Enough of a gain to claim Mission Accomplished to whoever is listening.

I dont know, I guess there are only so many possible outcomes from here . Maybe I'm being naive there's a less worse option than this on repeat.

Endless grinding standoff (if that is what this is) of this level destroys Ukraine and Ukrainian civilian lives. It doesn't seem sustainable to me. Its all well and good being told by Olena Zelrnska We Will Endure but i know I couldn't hack living with no power or water.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

I don't believe Russian victory happens when Ukraine stops fighting. At this point, Russian victory only happens when Ukraine is humiliated and helpless.

If they had surrendered in March, maybe just stopping fighting would have been enough to satisfy Putin, but after this much time, this much resistance and a decent degree of victory (though obviously not enough to actually eject Russia) well, I can't see Putin's Russia being OK with a draw. They will be aiming to punish the temerity of this so-called 'nation' for even daring to resist, and aiming to make an example of it. Things will not get better if Ukraine stops fighting.

Also, there's the issue of punishing 'the west' for helping. No, I think we're all in a bit of a corner now tbh.

Do we think there is any chance of a collapse of the regime? I know what follows might actually be worse, but a more hardline coup happens, they will have to at least lick their wounds and Ukraine can get full NATO membership.