Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[UnderOpenSky]

It appears that Ukrainians will be getting longer range missiles for a variety of systems including Himars, up to 160km.

I do find promotional videos for weapons systems a bit weird...

 

[Pickman's model]

It appears that Ukrainians will be getting longer range missiles for a variety of systems including Himars, up to 160km.

I do find promotional videos for weapons systems a bit weird...

er it appears that the americans are thinking about giving the ukrainians longer range himars Exclusive: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine unless you've a source saying anything different.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

er it appears that the americans are thinking about giving the ukrainians longer range himars Exclusive: U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine unless you've a source saying anything different

Well I've been corrected already that Himars are just one system that can fire these things.

100 miles is about 160km though?

 

[Pickman's model]

Well I've been corrected already that Himars are just one system that can fire these things.

100 miles is about 160km though?

it is indeed. but the core of my point being that no decision has been made therefore you're a mite premature about the new longer range weapons, being on their way to ukraine

 

[Dogsauce]

I think strategically it's also something of a courageous plan - missile attacks on hospitals, blocks of flats etc, energy infrastructure etc.. is far more likely to ensure that ever larger quantities of ever more capable weapons systems make their way to Ukraine.

Vlad has probably made the calculation that the atrocities, and the poor living conditions brought about by the damage/destruction of Ukraines power generation and distribution system - as well as his long standing belief that western Europe will cave - give him a negotiated result before the Ukrainian army defeats the Russian army.

He might be right, but he might not...

What must be the impact on stuff like the Ukrainian industry/economy? We hear stories of people having no power, being cold etc., but what about stuff like food production? Are industiral livestock sheds still heated or do the animals perish? Do milking machines work? Are cold stores losing all their stock? Are bakeries able to make bread? So much dependent on power, how long until there will be food aid having to be sent in in large quantities?

Also what about lighting and ventilation in air raid shelters? It’s all pretty bleak.

 

[kebabking]

What must be the impact on stuff like the Ukrainian industry/economy? We hear stories of people having no power, being cold etc., but what about stuff like food production? Are industiral livestock sheds still heated or do the animals perish? Do milking machines work? Are cold stores losing all their stock? Are bakeries able to make bread? So much dependent on power, how long until there will be food aid having to be sent in in large quantities?

Also what about lighting and ventilation in air raid shelters? It’s all pretty bleak.

Absolutely, it's grim, like properly grim - Germany in 1945 grim - Ukraine's economy has been destroyed, but agriculture has been the saviour: it's generally on a much more local level, but its enough to keep everyone in bread, potatoes, cheese etc.. it's not a great diet, and many are on a couple of meals a week, but it could be a lot worse.

 

[a_chap]

If you want to see what a liberated village looks like...

 

[editor]

If you want to see what a liberated village looks like...

Imagine someone doing this to your house and your community?

The hatred for Russians is going to burn brightly for generations.

 

[not-bono-ever]

There’s a new generation who now understand why their parents and grandparents have such a long standing beef with Russia.

Zero chance of any kind or give or take now that Russia have doubled down on their murderous cuntery.

 

[Chz]

Imagine someone doing this to your house and your community?

The hatred for Russians is going to burn brightly for generations.

You see that in Poland. The young'uns have no knowledge of communism or the fight with Solidarity, but they hate Russians because everyone hates Russians. It's just what you do. You'd think they'd be upset with Germans too, but no. Germans are fine, because they're not Russian.

 

[Crispy]

War Nerds will enjoy this very detailed report on the initital defensive phase of the war (eg feb-aug). Written by a very high-ranking Ukrainian officer and some British war nerds.

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

 

[not-bono-ever]

That’s a slab but very interesting reading Crispy

 

[weltweit]

So Sunak promised AA guns and radars, are they going to be any good against Russian Drones?

If not I see Russia continually knocking out Ukraine's grid, as fast as they can repair it.

 

[Spymaster]

So Sunak promised AA guns and radars, are they going to be any good against Russian Drones?

‘Would anti-aircraft weapons and radar be effective against aircraft?’

 

[weltweit]

‘Would anti-aircraft weapons and radar be effective against aircraft?’

But the drones are very small, not far away.

 

[Dogsauce]

War Nerds will enjoy this very detailed report on the initital defensive phase of the war (eg feb-aug). Written by a very high-ranking Ukrainian officer and some British war nerds.

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

One of the best bits out of that:


basically they photographed damaged hangars/shelters, printed out at life size, repaired the hangars then covered them with the print of the damaged ones so Russia would assume they were already destroyed from satellite images and not target them. Genius stuff.

maybe they can do the same with power stations / electrical infrastructure, or fake hits when missiles have been intercepted, i.e.let off a load of smoke charges at the intended target site so it looks like the strike was a success.

 

[emanymton]

But the drones are very small, not far away.

I'm hoping they are giving them something useful, but with the Uk government who the hell knows.

One of the issues with drones is that they are very cheap, possibly cheaper than the missile being used to shoot them down but you can't just leave them so basically they are a way of draining resources. Hopefully this combination will allow the Ukrainians to shoot them down without using expensive missiles.

 

[existentialist]

I'm hoping they are giving them something useful, but with the Uk government who the hell knows.

One of the issues with drones is that they are very cheap, possibly cheaper than the missile being used to shoot them down but you can't just leave them so basically they are a way of draining resources. Hopefully this combination will allow the Ukrainians to shoot them down without using expensive missiles.

Stuff like the German Gepard is a reasonable match for drones, at least in ammunition cost terms, but I don't think they have many, and it's a bit of a "last mile" defence.

 

[Spymaster]

But the drones are very small, not far away.

I'm reasonably sure that anti aircraft schizz can take out drones. Isn't that what they've been downing them with so far?

 

[cesare]

There are lots of sizes of drones ... how big are the reconnaissance ones, anyone know?

 

[Idris2002]

I'm reasonably sure that anti aircraft schizz can take out drones. Isn't that what they've been downing them with so far?

Wasn't there some fancypants electronic jamming gear that looked like something out of Star Wars deployed there as well?

 

[8ball]

I'm reasonably sure that anti aircraft schizz can take out drones. Isn't that what they've been downing them with so far?

If you're talking about the ones being used as weapons, they're very small and numerous and are basically designed to overwhelm established defenses.

 

[Spymaster]

There are lots of sizes of drones ... how big are the reconnaissance ones, anyone know?

Ah, yes. Perhaps Welts was referring to the little reconnaissance ones. I was thinking about the big Iranian "Kamikaze" ones with bombs on, which are probably of more concern.

 

[Pickman's model]

There are lots of sizes of drones ... how big are the reconnaissance ones, anyone know?

Varying sizes from ones like large model aircraft with a short range to much larger ones that can stay aloft for ages

 

[weltweit]

I was referring to those Iranian ones that seem to be about 7' wide and with a nose tipped with HE.

 

[cesare]

Ah, yes. Perhaps Welts was referring to the little reconnaissance ones. I was thinking about the big Iranian "Kamikaze" ones with bombs on, which are probably of more concern.

I assumed he meant the little ones, not far away.

But there are massive fuck-off ones aren't there! Ones that are weapons in themselves.

We need a drone-expert.

 

[Spymaster]

I was referring to those Iranian ones that seem to be about 7' wide and with a nose tipped with HE.

I reckon AA artillery can shoot them down. kebabking ?

 

[Pickman's model]

I assumed he meant the little ones, not far away.

But there are massive fuck-off ones aren't there! Ones that are weapons in themselves.

We need a drone-expert.

kebabking

 

[cesare]

I was referring to those Iranian ones that seem to be about 7' wide and with a nose tipped with HE.

Why do you say those are small, not far away? They sound very fucking large to me.

 

[maomao]

Ah, yes. Perhaps Welts was referring to the little reconnaissance ones. I was thinking about the big Iranian "Kamikaze" ones with bombs on, which are probably of more concern.

Shaheds are 20k a pop and even the little quadcopters can drop explosives.