Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[teuchter]

TBF, it's a bit of an in joke. And if you're not "in", you're not likely to get it. I shouldn't worry too much about it

I'm not "in" the war, nor am I "in" Crimea or anywhere else directly suffering, and am guessing that most of the in group for these in jokes isn't either.

 

[maomao]

I'm not "in" the war, nor am I "in" Crimea or anywhere else directly suffering, and am guessing that most of the in group for these in jokes isn't either.

It's okay. In jokes aren't actually jokes. They're a male grooming ritual.

 

[8ball]

It's okay. In jokes aren't actually jokes. They're a male grooming ritual.

Hardly exclusively male. See the plethora of urban in-jokes and rituals.

 

[maomao]

Hardly exclusively male.

This one is.

 

[Idris2002]

What do we think of the apparent pressure on Zhelenisky to talk peace? It's hard to see what he could talk about, even if Putin wasn't etc. etc.

But it's significant that he is (reportedly) being pressured to open talks with Moscow. Someone in Washington has been looking at bottom lines.

Peace talks now though, when Ukraine has just scored a major victory, are tailor-made for a dolchstosslegende a little further on . . .

 

[8ball]

What do we think of the apparent pressure on Zhelenisky to talk peace? It's hard to see what he could talk about, even if Putin wasn't etc. etc.

But it's significant that he is (reportedly) being pressured to open talks with Moscow. Someone in Washington has been looking at bottom lines.

Peace talks now though, when Ukraine has just scored a major victory, are tailor-made for a dolchstosslegende a little further on . . .

Zhelenisky?

edit: sorry - is obvious from context - I thought you were talking about one of Putin's guys at first

 

[Nylock]

Good news that the Russian army has pulled out of kherson to the east bank of the dnipro. However, going by their track record, they're probably going to start shelling it flat from the safety of their fortified positions east of the city...

 

[Pickman's model]

It's funnier than the old Cold War joke of two Russian Tank Generals having coffee in a Paris café and one asking the other who'd won the Air War...

Military intelligence famously an oxymoron. So is military humour

 

[8ball]

Military intelligence famously an oxymoron. So is military humour

I was unsure of this assertion, so I Googled "military humour".

You win this round, PM...

 

[strung out]

What do we think of the apparent pressure on Zhelenisky to talk peace? It's hard to see what he could talk about, even if Putin wasn't etc. etc.

But it's significant that he is (reportedly) being pressured to open talks with Moscow. Someone in Washington has been looking at bottom lines.

Peace talks now though, when Ukraine has just scored a major victory, are tailor-made for a dolchstosslegende a little further on . . .

My understanding from reading what some Ukraine analysts have said is that it's not particularly a push from Washington to open peace talks, but more a push to encourage Ukraine to be less absolutist in their refusal to talk with Putin at all, thus potentially losing support from those in Europe (mainly France and Germany) who want to seek a rapid peace with Russia to restore fossil fuel supply.

I think the line from Ukraine until recently was that they would only negotiate with the next leader of Russia, but that seems to have softened recently, albeit still demanding that Russia leaves all occupied territory before talks can start.

 

[Smangus]

Hardly exclusively male. See the plethora of urban in-jokes and rituals.

It's clear that we now need an "In-jokes time is up thread"

 

[Pickman's model]

It's clear that we now need an "In-jokes time is up thread"

in jokes for out people

 

[keybored]

Worrying video of some Ukrainian soldiers encircled in the Kherson pocket.

Glad to see the other 12.95% are alive and well.

 

[not-bono-ever]

so what now ? ivan looks to have built a siegfried line / tora bora fiendishly evil command bunker artillery complex ( yeh right) on the opposite hilly bank on the river. they could go full on sarajevo and pound kherson from there but would last about 20 minutes until they get precision mashed. better for the conscripts to have surrendered and have somewhere relatively safe to wait out the conflict. but i would say that

any seperatists will get a booting when captured i assume

 

[Rimbaud]

Recapturing Kherson is a massive propaganda victory for Ukraine and casts Russia as the losers.

I habitually keep track on China's Weibo and earlier in the war it was very pro-Russia. However when I searched the Chinese characters for Kherson, 赫尔松, I can only see people celebrating the liberation of Kherson and commenting that invading Ukraine was a bad idea.

微博

随时随地发现新鲜事！微博带你欣赏世界上每一个精彩瞬间，了解每一个幕后故事。分享你想表达的，让全世界都能听到你的心声！

m.weibo.cn

I think this could mean the game is almost up for Russia and their international credibility is spent even among people wanting to see them win. A lot of the popular support for Russia stems from admiring Putin as a badass who takes risks and squares up to the west but this image is in tatters now.

There's a good essay by Jorge Luis Borges about the liberation of Paris in 1944 as seen from Argentina. The symbolism isn't quite the same as few people had even heard of Kherson until a few months ago, but he described how many of the Argentinians who were avowedly pro-Hitler a year before were out on the streets celebrating the liberation of Paris regardless. This feels like a similar moment.

 

[ska invita]

From a propaganda point of view the retreat looks bad for Putin. Militarily though?? A lot less so. Current situation seems to be
-roughly equal losses on both sides
-Russia will successfully define a new border on the western end of its annexed territory using the river as the border
-Latest map suggest little territory changes on the east (though there has been some advance by Ukraine)



Overall it looks like the annexed land is broadly being held.

The only thing I've read to counter that are
-Ukraine taking Kherson makes Crimea supply routes within missile range - though likewise might see a lot more Russian missiles being fired indiscriminately in that direction
-Ukrainian forces tied up in the Kherson region could be redeployed to the east.

I think this could mean the game is almost up for Russia

How do you mean?

 

[strung out]

Mariupol is the only city bigger than Kherson still occupied from post Feb 24th lines. When that gets liberated I can see it being an even more emotional moment, albeit with far more pain and misery having been inflicted on it by the occupiers.

 

[Dystopiary]

Hanna Liubakova on twitter

 

[Pickman's model]

Recapturing Kherson is a massive propaganda victory for Ukraine and casts Russia as the losers.

I habitually keep track on China's Weibo and earlier in the war it was very pro-Russia. However when I searched the Chinese characters for Kherson, 赫尔松, I can only see people celebrating the liberation of Kherson and commenting that invading Ukraine was a bad idea.

微博

随时随地发现新鲜事！微博带你欣赏世界上每一个精彩瞬间，了解每一个幕后故事。分享你想表达的，让全世界都能听到你的心声！

m.weibo.cn

I think this could mean the game is almost up for Russia and their international credibility is spent even among people wanting to see them win. A lot of the popular support for Russia stems from admiring Putin as a badass who takes risks and squares up to the west but this image is in tatters now.

There's a good essay by Jorge Luis Borges about the liberation of Paris in 1944 as seen from Argentina. The symbolism isn't quite the same as few people had even heard of Kherson until a few months ago, but he described how many of the Argentinians who were avowedly pro-Hitler a year before were out on the streets celebrating the liberation of Paris regardless. This feels like a similar moment.

I'd be less sanguine because opinions expressed on social media rarely if ever change things in the real world

 

[spitfire]

From a propaganda point of view the retreat looks bad for Putin. Militarily though?? A lot less so. Current situation seems to be
-roughly equal losses on both sides
-Russia will successfully define a new border on the western end of its annexed territory using the river as the border
-Latest map suggest little territory changes on the east (though there has been some advance by Ukraine)
View attachment 351134
View attachment 351135

Overall it looks like the annexed land is broadly being held.

The only thing I've read to counter that are
-Ukraine taking Kherson makes Crimea supply routes within missile range - though likewise might see a lot more Russian missiles being fired indiscriminately in that direction
-Ukrainian forces tied up in the Kherson region could be redeployed to the east.


How do you mean?

The only thing they’ve successfully defined is how to get your arse kicked over a river. And out of several 1000 sq km of occupied Ukraine.

Sorry but I don’t agree that this is anything but bad for the Russians.

This is quite something.

 

[strung out]

From a propaganda point of view the retreat looks bad for Putin. Militarily though?? A lot less so. Current situation seems to be
-roughly equal losses on both sides
-Russia will successfully define a new border on the western end of its annexed territory using the river as the border
-Latest map suggest little territory changes on the east (though there has been some advance by Ukraine)
View attachment 351134
View attachment 351135

Overall it looks like the annexed land is broadly being held.

The only thing I've read to counter that are
-Ukraine taking Kherson makes Crimea supply routes within missile range - though likewise might see a lot more Russian missiles being fired indiscriminately in that direction
-Ukrainian forces tied up in the Kherson region could be redeployed to the east.


How do you mean?

I think 'roughly equal losses' would be disputed, given the evidence we have of huge numbers of Russian losses in the east through pointlessly ineffective offensives, and the smarter attritional mode of engagement demonstrated by Ukrainian forces around Kherson. True casualty figures won't be known for a long time, if ever, but we certainly know that losses of Russian hardware far outstrip those of Ukraine.

I'm puzzled why you think that having demonstrated continual excellence on the battlefield and steady retaking of territory since April, Ukrainian forces are unlikely to take any more? Ukraine's two main counter offensives, in Kherson and Kharkiv has seen them successful in both. There's every chance they'll be successful again once they turn their attentions to Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk.

 

[keybored]

From a propaganda point of view the retreat looks bad for Putin. Militarily though?? A lot less so. Current situation seems to be
-roughly equal losses on both sides
-Russia will successfully define a new border on the western end of its annexed territory using the river as the border
-Latest map suggest little territory changes on the east (though there has been some advance by Ukraine)
View attachment 351134
View attachment 351135

Overall it looks like the annexed land is broadly being held.

The only thing I've read to counter that are
-Ukraine taking Kherson makes Crimea supply routes within missile range - though likewise might see a lot more Russian missiles being fired indiscriminately in that direction
-Ukrainian forces tied up in the Kherson region could be redeployed to the east.


How do you mean?

    >Russia didn't need Kiev
    >Russia didn't need Odessa
    >Russia didn't need Sumy
    >Russia didn't need Mykolaiv
    >Russia didn't need Kryvyi Rih
    >Russia didn't need Dnipropetrovsk
    >Russia didn't need Kharkiv
    >Russia didn't need Balakliia
    >Russia didn't need Izyum
    >Russia didn't need Lyman
    >Russia didn't need Kherson
    <<<YOU ARE HERE>>>
    >Ukraine will never take Svatove
    >Ukraine will never take Starobilsk
    >Ukraine will never take Lyschansk
    >Ukraine will never take Melitopol
    >Ukraine will never take Mariupol
    >Ukraine will never take Luhansk
    >Ukraine will never take Donetsk
    >Ukraine will never take Crimea
    >Ukraine will never take Belgorod
    >Ukraine will never take Kursk
    >Ukraine will never take Tula
    >Ukraine will never take Moscow

 

[Rimbaud]

How do you mean?

I was thinking about the impact on morale, diplomatic support from other countries etc

 

[Pickman's model]

I was thinking about the impact on morale, diplomatic support from other countries etc

Ah. When I hear 'the game is up', I think it means the game is up, that it's all up for Russia (in this instance), kaput, the end. But thank you for clarifying that you didn't actually mean the game is up for russia

Not sure how Chinese social media messages will impact much on Russian consciousness, but I'm sure it makes sense to you

 

[kebabking]

From a propaganda point of view the retreat looks bad for Putin. Militarily though?? A lot less so. Current situation seems to be
-roughly equal losses on both sides
-Russia will successfully define a new border on the western end of its annexed territory using the river as the border
-Latest map suggest little territory changes on the east (though there has been some advance by Ukraine)
View attachment 351134
View attachment 351135

Overall it looks like the annexed land is broadly being held.

The only thing I've read to counter that are
-Ukraine taking Kherson makes Crimea supply routes within missile range - though likewise might see a lot more Russian missiles being fired indiscriminately in that direction
-Ukrainian forces tied up in the Kherson region could be redeployed to the east.


How do you mean?

I think the solid thing in this is that it is a great deal easier to defend their current line, and that the Russians could engineer a situation where they can both hold their line, and release resources to fight in other battles.

In managing their retreat, they have probably avoided a collapse which might have seen Ukrainian units cross the river along with fleeing Russian units - the Ukrainians might have been able to secure a bridgehead, they might not - but they have certainly (for the moment) traded a block of difficult to hold, and even more difficult to support, territory for a more secure line, and have avoided another rout.

They have probably made a bit of a mess of it, but they have executed a Retreat-in-Contact, which is about the most difficult land operation there is, which will have a positive impact on the morale of their Army.

The bigger picture however is that Russia is getting weaker, while Ukraine is getting stronger. When Russia loses a Tank, it's replaced by an older Tank. When Ukraine loses a Tank, it's replaced by a newer Tank.

 

[Rimbaud]

I'd be less sanguine because opinions expressed on social media rarely if ever change things in the real world

True, I just found the change in tone interesting and wanted to share it.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think the solid thing in this is that it is a great deal easier to defend their current line, and that the Russians could engineer a situation where they can both hold their line, and release resources to fight in other battles.

In managing their retreat, they have probably avoided a collapse which might have seen Ukrainian units cross the river along with fleeing Russian units - the Ukrainians might have been able to secure a bridgehead, they might not - but they have certainly (for the moment) traded a block of difficult to hold, and even more difficult to support, territory for a more secure line, and have avoided another rout.

They have probably made a bit of a mess of it, but they have executed a Retreat-in-Contact, which is about the most difficult land operation there is, which will have a positive impact on the morale of their Army.

The bigger picture however is that Russia is getting weaker, while Ukraine is getting stronger. When Russia loses a Tank, it's replaced by an older Tank. When Ukraine loses a Tank, it's replaced by a newer Tank.

But if Russia manages to hold the eastern side of the river this disparity in armour won't matter so much. Obviously it's not just tanks and in a war of attrition the Ukrainians have effectively an unlimited supply of arms and ammunition. But I wonder how deep they're going to be able to dig for soldiers, if what's been said upthread about their losses being about equal to those of Russia is true. In ww2 the russians were able to adapt to defeat the Germans, helped of course by considerable amounts of aid from Britain and the United States.

Will Russia be able to adapt now to secure its conquered land and make efforts to retake it too costly for the Ukrainians, when as you say Russian resupply is putting outmoded materiel on the battlefield? I think it'd be a tough call for putin to manage, in terms of training, supply and imagination. But they're not devoid of skill as moving a demoralised force in a retreat in contact must be proper hard.

 

[Raheem]

I think the solid thing in this is that it is a great deal easier to defend their current line

Isn't that at least partly just in the nature of retreats though? Any retreating army will want to retreat to a more defensible position. Which isn't hard, because the previous line has just proved indefensible. A bit of a spin to make this out to be a tactical win, possibly.

 

[spitfire]

I think the solid thing in this is that it is a great deal easier to defend their current line, and that the Russians could engineer a situation where they can both hold their line, and release resources to fight in other battles.

In managing their retreat, they have probably avoided a collapse which might have seen Ukrainian units cross the river along with fleeing Russian units - the Ukrainians might have been able to secure a bridgehead, they might not - but they have certainly (for the moment) traded a block of difficult to hold, and even more difficult to support, territory for a more secure line, and have avoided another rout.

They have probably made a bit of a mess of it, but they have executed a Retreat-in-Contact, which is about the most difficult land operation there is, which will have a positive impact on the morale of their Army.

The bigger picture however is that Russia is getting weaker, while Ukraine is getting stronger. When Russia loses a Tank, it's replaced by an older Tank. When Ukraine loses a Tank, it's replaced by a newer Tank.

Was it a retreat in contact or did the Russians just take advantage of the UA’s natural caution to assault Kherson and get out of dodge while the going was good?

How on their heels were the UA? I know they’ve absolutely swept through Kherson Oblast in the last 24 hours but had the impression they were holding off a bit (artillery excepted) so as to not get drawn into a trap.

 

[strung out]

But if Russia manages to hold the eastern side of the river this disparity in armour won't matter so much. Obviously it's not just tanks and in a war of attrition the Ukrainians have effectively an unlimited supply of arms and ammunition. But I wonder how deep they're going to be able to dig for soldiers, if what's been said upthread about their losses being about equal to those of Russia is true. In ww2 the russians were able to adapt to defeat the Germans, helped of course by considerable amounts of aid from Britain and the United States.

Will Russia be able to adapt now to secure its conquered land and make efforts to retake it too costly for the Ukrainians, when as you say Russian resupply is putting outmoded materiel on the battlefield? I think it'd be a tough call for putin to manage, in terms of training, supply and imagination. But they're not devoid of skill as moving a demoralised force in a retreat in contact must be proper hard.

I can't remember where I read it now, so apols for not providing a source, but I'm fairly sure Ukraine has said they don't need any more soldiers for the moment, as the strength of their forces and reserves were sufficient enough not to need to call up any more.

The restricting force for Ukraine has always been hardware and ammunition rather than people, while the opposite is true for Russia - hence mobilisation of untrained and unmotivated civilians. Like kebabking says though, even the disparity in hardware is changing though, as Ukraine gets more tooled up.