Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Cid]

Right, so loads of conscripts are being sent to the frontlines on the Russian side. They are going to have desertion and mutiny problems, aren't they... I remember seeing viral footage of mutinies back in March. More Russians in the Ukrainian International legion.

Going to depend a lot on how they're used. It's easy to think this will just be a total shambles... But it's not inevitable (alright, some level of shambles probably is), nor is it predictable how that would play out. 300,000 is a lot of people, and within that there will be some who are willing, some who are capable etc. Backfill depleted units with those that really do have training/experience, those who are willing but lack training rotated through non-critical defensive positions as they train, everyone else building defences. Effectively what UA did, though critical differences there being that they were quickly able to outsource training, and probably had a faaar higher proportion of willing people.

But there are huge problems here... If Putin had reduced his objectives, this might have made UA's job really hard. But he wants to take the rest of Donbas, and of course there are the ongoing annexations. And inarguably RU is having supply and equipment issues. The reality is that more people will die to serve the fragile ego of a despot.

 

[kebabking]

Old Soviet Army AKM assault rifles. Last produced in Russia in the 1970's.

 

[Pickman's model]

Going to depend a lot on how they're used. It's easy to think this will just be a total shambles... But it's not inevitable (alright, some level of shambles probably is), nor is it predictable how that would play out. 300,000 is a lot of people, and within that there will be some who are willing, some who are capable etc. Backfill depleted units with those that really do have training/experience, those who are willing but lack training rotated through non-critical defensive positions as they train, everyone else building defences. Effectively what UA did, though critical differences there being that they were quickly able to outsource training, and probably had a faaar higher proportion of willing people.

But there are huge problems here... If Putin had reduced his objectives, this might have made UA's job really hard. But he wants to take the rest of Donbas, and of course there are the ongoing annexations. And inarguably RU is having supply and equipment issues. The reality is that more people will die to serve the fragile ego of a despot.

And of course while they're in the army or fleeing the country the jobs they'd normally do won't be done. In many cases this won't matter but we've already seen the effect fewer fire fighters in siberia has had in the spread of forest fires there. Worse will no doubt come. We can't afford this war, which undermines global cooperation against climate change, is causing its own ecological disasters in Ukraine, and greater use of coal in Europe.

 

[Tanya1982]

Say in this role play that you had family , children and community in Russia That you have average qualifications , don’t speak another language etc ?

What? In this 'role play' I started out by saying I'd want my family to leave for Germany or Turkey.

Something all my family do, and always have, is to always have something to sell in a hurry. A good watch, expensive earrings, etc - stuff that you always have on you, that you can always exchange for a plane ticket, language be damned. I know some families who keep a grab bag packed, always. It's not actually that unusual.

 

[tim]

If he has these aks it makes it all the more confusing that the russians have handed out auld bolt operated rifles to lots of their cannon fodder

Putin's secret vice is watching repeats of Dad's Army on BBC World. At heart, he is just a Leningrad-on-Sea bank manager leading his underresourced but plucky battalion to victory over Naziism.

 

[Dystopiary]

Old Soviet Army AKM assault rifles. Last produced in Russia in the 1970's.

That's MUCH shitter than I was expecting, and I was expecting to see something pretty crap. Wtf are the Russian PTB playing at?!

 

[WhyLikeThis]

If he has these aks it makes it all the more confusing that the russians have handed out auld bolt operated rifles to lots of their cannon fodder

Looks like this may be the reason they’re not too keen on dishing out stored AKs



Ah, already posted

 

[Pickman's model]

Looks like this may be the reason they’re not too keen on dishing out stored AKs



Ah, already posted

Reckon they'd be better off with aks than akms

 

[A380]

Old Soviet Army AKM assault rifles. Last produced in Russia in the 1970's.

Presumably someone pocketed the money they were getting for keeping these stored and maintained properly.

 

[steveo87]

Putin's secret vice is watching repeats of Dad's Army on BBC World. At heart, he is just a Leningrad-on-Sea bank manager leading his underresourced but plucky battalion to victory over Naziism.

Is that true?!
It's both hilarious and quite endearing (ignoring the war crimes for a second).

 

[Kaka Tim]

the mobilisation look to be consistent with much of the rest of Russia's war effort - desperate, cack handed, corrupted, chaotic, brutal and ultimately self defeating.
Prior to the invasion I remember thinking "its got to be a bluff" because there was no massive propaganda campaign to get the public on side for war (unlike the build up to the iraq war). So now - 7 months into a growing military disaster - the public are even less likely to get behind conscription. So all these hundreds of thousands of bitterly resentful conscripts are shoved into trucks and trains with minimal training and shit equipment to fight a highly motivated and far more effective Ukrainian army in a war that Russia is visibly losing.
I really cant see how this is going to be of any boost to Russian abiltiy to fight - its WW1 level stuff - mass conscription of cannon fodder, give em an ancient rifle, defend this trench. Against precision artillery , drones and an enemy who know exactly where you, how many there of you and probably what you had for breakfast (likely to be nothing or 10 years out of date field rations).
They are going run or surrender at the first opportunity or - if forced to fight - mutiny. Meanwhile the anger at home will surely only build.

 

[maomao]

Is that true?!
It's both hilarious and quite endearing (ignoring the war crimes for a second).

No it's not. His favourite sitcom is Porridge.

 

[steveo87]

No it's not. His favourite sitcom is Porridge.

Sitting in front of a dodgy feed of UK Gold, laughing his despotic head off at the 'bad feet' scene.

 

[teqniq]

This could well turn out to be a mistake on Putin's part. Would be such a terrible shame if this turned out to be correct:

As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy

 

[Kaka Tim]

This could well turn out to be a mistake on Putin's part. Would be such a terrible shame if this turned out to be correct:

As Russian Losses Mount in Ukraine, Putin Gets More Involved in War Strategy

hes going fall "downfall" isnt he?

 

[Yossarian]

Old Soviet Army AKM assault rifles. Last produced in Russia in the 1970's.

You could do some real damage if you clubbed somebody with one of those.

 

[JimW]

No it's not. His favourite sitcom is Porridge.

Fawlty Equipment.

 

[Pickman's model]

You could do some real damage if you clubbed somebody with one of those.

At the least they'd need a tetanus shot

 

[Raheem]

Fawlty Equipment.

Are You Being Served Draft Papers?

 

[DaveCinzano]

Fawlty Equipment.

Never Decreasing Psychosis

 

[maomao]

Big Bang Theory.

 

[DaveCinzano]

The Götterdämmerung Life

 

[Kaka Tim]

Red Army Dwarf

 

[tim]

It Ain't Half Hot Mum.

 

[stdP]

Spetsnaz and Sun
All Gassing Traitors

 

[Artaxerxes]

Scrap heap challenge

 

[Tanya1982]

Russia Is Sending Its Ethnic Minorities to the Meat Grinder

Chaotic mobilization sparks renewed fears that the pain will not be shared evenly across Russia.

foreignpolicy.com

Interesting article. No way to build on any cohesion that might exist within the Russian Federation.

 

[Supine]

Cool clothing

 

[Crispy]

Meanwhile the anger at home will surely only build.

Given the overwhelming preference for ethnic minorities in the draft, that anger is going to find itself constrained to the women and elderly of those places, and therefore more easily suppressed. Putin kills two birds with one stone here.

 

[Fez909]

Something all my family do, and always have, is to always have something to sell in a hurry. A good watch, expensive earrings, etc - stuff that you always have on you, that you can always exchange for a plane ticket, language be damned. I know some families who keep a grab bag packed, always. It's not actually that unusual.

Is this a Jewish thing? I've never heard of anyone who does that, or maybe it's just because the people I knew growing up were mostly poor so wouldn't have been able to afford to buy something expensive just to sell later.

I say Jewish because it was a plot point in Russian Doll, where she had a bag of gold Krugerrands her family took when they escaped the Hungarian holocaust. Obviously this is fiction, but given the history of Jewish persecution, I imagine it might be something they feel is needed for safety/backup.