Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[The39thStep]

108/215 Azov (according to Graun via Yermak). Exchange for Medvedchuk and 55 others... I suppose probable those 55 were also relatively high value prisoners (e.g iirc a few pilots have been captured), complete speculation of course.

There was also the exchange end of June of 144 Ukrainians inc 43 Azov although I think most of the Azov were severely wounded .

 

[teuchter]

I wonder, if I was a Russian POW in Ukraine right now, whether I might prefer to remain as such for a little while rather than being sent back to Russia and presumably back into battle.

 

[Cid]

There was also the exchange end of June of 144 Ukrainians inc 43 Azov although I think most of the Azov were severely wounded .

Yeah, think so. Not going to get into the weeds on Avoz again... But I think in the raw terms of your question; why give up high propaganda value assets for fewer people, it can probably be found in the composition of those 55. If froggy's memory/my speculation is right, a pilot is going to worth quite a few Azov soldiers. Essentially irreplaceable, and iirc they were under strength even before the invasion. Same might go for experienced field officers, though I'm not sure they've exactly proven themselves.

 

[Yossarian]

I wonder, if I was a Russian POW in Ukraine right now, whether I might prefer to remain as such for a little while rather than being sent back to Russia and presumably back into battle.

I've seen suggestions - probably unworkable ones that Russia would never agree to - that Canada or another country with a lot of remote areas suitable for the purpose offer to host the Russians captured in Ukraine, which would likely encourage more of them to surrender.

 

[spitfire]

I saw something about the swapped POW's not being allowed back into combat. Or was that just for the 10 internationals?

 

[Cid]

I saw something about the swapped POW's not being allowed back into combat. Or was that just for the 10 internationals?

The Azov commanders have to remain in Turkey. Don't think there are conditions on the others.

 

[The39thStep]

Yeah, think so. Not going to get into the weeds on Avoz again... But I think in the raw terms of your question; why give up high propaganda value assets for fewer people, it can probably be found in the composition of those 55. If froggy's memory/my speculation is right, a pilot is going to worth quite a few Azov soldiers. Essentially irreplaceable, and iirc they were under strength even before the invasion. Same might go for experienced field officers, though I'm not sure they've exactly proven themselves.

Have to dig into those 55 to find out more ( I am sure that I read some of the 55 were from the recent retreat/ offensive .Unless there is something valuable in those 55 or there is a lot of damaged goods in the Azov swaps it still doesn’t imo explain the last two months of build the courts build the cages and let the war crime proceedings commence .

 

[Spymaster]

I wonder, if I was a Russian POW in Ukraine right now, whether I might prefer to remain as such for a little while rather than being sent back to Russia and presumably back into battle.

Absolutely. In most wars this is the case.

Reading biographies of WW2 veterans you realise that the vast majority of allied soldiers imprisoned by the Germans were quite happy to sit-out the war in boring safety, especially after Stalingrad. The Great Escape, Colditz, and other lauded breakouts were performed by a handful of POW's who 95% of the others thought were bonkers.

 

[agricola]

Absolutely. In most wars this is the case.

Reading biographies of WW2 veterans you realise that the vast majority of allied soldiers imprisoned by the Germans were quite happy to sit-out the war in boring safety. The Great Escape, Colditz, and other lauded breakouts were performed by a handful of POW's who 95% of the others thought were bonkers.

Western soldiers, perhaps. I'd imagine the hundreds of thousands of Red Army troops who the Germans held would have loved to have gotten out, even knowing what awaited them when they did so.

 

[Spymaster]

Western soldiers, perhaps. I'd imagine the hundreds of thousands of Red Army troops who the Germans held would have loved to have gotten out, even knowing what awaited them when they did so.

Yes.

 

[Cid]

Have to dig into those 55 to find out more ( I am sure that I read some of the 55 were from the recent retreat/ offensive .Unless there is something valuable in those 55 or there is a lot of damaged goods in the Azov swaps it still doesn’t imo explain the last two months of build the courts build the cages and let the war crime proceedings commence .

I mean showy court stuff makes for a good negotiating tactic... these people will die soon, better up your game. Those Azov soldiers have presumably spent months in shit conditions (on top of still shittier conditions in Azovstal), they're probably not going straight back to the front lines. Imagine the foreign soldiers aren't rushing back either. Again, yeah, we don't know who the 55 are. But Russia is currently trying to mobilise 300,000 people. It needs officers badly, it needs pilots badly, frankly it needs anyone who knows what they're doing badly.

 

[The39thStep]

I mean showy court stuff makes for a good negotiating tactic... these people will die soon, better up your game. Those Azov soldiers have presumably spent months in shit conditions (on top of still shittier conditions in Azovstal), they're probably not going straight back to the front lines. Imagine the foreign soldiers aren't rushing back either. Again, yeah, we don't know who the 55 are. But Russia is currently trying to mobilise 300,000 people. It needs officers badly, it needs pilots badly, frankly it needs anyone who knows what they're doing badly.

I think that there would have been some enthusiasm for a trial, especially in the occupied areas after Azov and other factions there since 2014 so I am not convinced that it was a negotiating tactic. I'm also not convinced about the Russia is down to a couple of muskets and anyone who can see straight narrative tbh , reminds me too much of the chorus about Putin's health.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Wrong Fred

 

[strung out]

I think that there would have been some enthusiasm for a trial, especially in the occupied areas after Azov and other factions there since 2014 so I am not convinced that it was a negotiating tactic. I'm also not convinced about the Russia is down to a couple of muskets and anyone who can see straight narrative tbh , reminds me too much of the chorus about Putin's health.

Are you not convinced because of a hunch or actually based on anything? Most of the experts watching Russia closely seem very convinced by their lack of equipment and manpower.

 

[Cid]

I think that there would have been some enthusiasm for a trial, especially in the occupied areas after Azov and other factions there since 2014 so I am not convinced that it was a negotiating tactic. I'm also not convinced about the Russia is down to a couple of muskets and anyone who can see straight narrative tbh , reminds me too much of the chorus about Putin's health.

I have no idea on balance of trials vs negotiations of course, that's just speculation. But the logistics/personnel issues are far better established. I mean you only have to look at the events of the past couple of weeks to see that... No, I'm not about to argue that everyone is wandering around with Mosin-Nagants, and that all the tanks and artillery are gone. But there are resources Russia can't replace through conscription, or by shunting equipment from city defences, borders, storage etc.

You want 300,000 recruits to fight? you need people with combat experience leading and training them. Those people do not grow on trees in any army, and we know they've had substantial losses in officer corps. Same goes for pilots; they represent years of training and investment, and there are not that many of them. Even just your average specialists; radar operators, artillery officers, communications officers, drivers, tank commanders. None of these are easy jobs, and even if your released pow can't go back to the front, they can perform a training role. Azov, by contrast, really just have propaganda value.

 

[nogojones]

Have to dig into those 55 to find out more ( I am sure that I read some of the 55 were from the recent retreat/ offensive .Unless there is something valuable in those 55 or there is a lot of damaged goods in the Azov swaps it still doesn’t imo explain the last two months of build the courts build the cages and let the war crime proceedings commence .

Maybe it was just a bit of theatre, to up the anti and get a better deal on the swap.

 

[frogwoman]

 

[The39thStep]

Are you not convinced because of a hunch or actually based on anything? Most of the experts watching Russia closely seem very convinced by their lack of equipment and manpower.

I'm sure they are, some more convinced than others, and others speculating all sorts of stuff into what they would like to happen or in some cases perhaps merely going along with the narrative. We are of course in a period where psyops and propaganda play a very large role. I don't doubt that the Russians require more personnel and that their war technology is in some areas behind the USA and NATOs . However when I say I am not convinced , I am not convinced that after the advance by the Ukrainians and one day or so of calling up reservists that the end is near for the Russians. It may well be in the future, I am just reserving my judgment.

 

[The39thStep]

I have no idea on balance of trials vs negotiations of course, that's just speculation. But the logistics/personnel issues are far better established. I mean you only have to look at the events of the past couple of weeks to see that... No, I'm not about to argue that everyone is wandering around with Mosin-Nagants, and that all the tanks and artillery are gone. But there are resources Russia can't replace through conscription, or by shunting equipment from city defences, borders, storage etc.

You want 300,000 recruits to fight? you need people with combat experience leading and training them. Those people do not grow on trees in any army, and we know they've had substantial losses in officer corps. Same goes for pilots; they represent years of training and investment, and there are not that many of them. Even just your average specialists; radar operators, artillery officers, communications officers, drivers, tank commanders. None of these are easy jobs, and even if your released pow can't go back to the front, they can perform a training role. Azov, by contrast, really just have propaganda value.

I dont have a particular disagreement with what you say above tbh . Just interested in the detail of the 55.

 

[Tanya1982]

Absolutely. In most wars this is the case.

Reading biographies of WW2 veterans you realise that the vast majority of allied soldiers imprisoned by the Germans were quite happy to sit-out the war in boring safety, especially after Stalingrad. The Great Escape, Colditz, and other lauded breakouts were performed by a handful of POW's who 95% of the others thought were bonkers.

I really think if I was a Russian soldier, my only goal would be to surrender myself into Ukrainian custody ASAP, having told my immediate family beforehand to get themselves safely out of Russia to Germany or Turkey.

 

[The39thStep]

Couldn't make this up, could you?

Britons freed from Russian captivity in Ukraine ‘welcomed by Roman Abramovich on jet’

Billionaire told he looked like Roman Abramovich, to which he replied, ‘That’s because I am him, sir’

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Dystopiary]

According to the UN Human Rights Council's Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, their initial investigation into rights violations have shown evidence of warcrimes. It's unsurprising but important there are official investigations and reports. So far they've been focused on the Kyiv (including Bucha), Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy regions. They've cited testimonies by former detainees.

Content warning for, well, warcrimes,

UN rights experts present evidence of war crimes in Ukraine

 

[Cid]

Yeah, was just going to say the same. The full statement is below, as above content warning for everything.

Update by the Chair of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, at the 51st session of the Human Rights Council

Ukrainian version (Word) Distinguished President, Excellencies,

www.ohchr.org

 

[frogwoman]

I'd be worried about handing myself in tbh. Ukrainian soldiers aren't committing war crimes on any sort of systematic scale but I can't imagine the treatment Russian POWs are getting is exactly a vicar's tea party atm. Still a lot will feel like they have to risk it

 

[Spymaster]

I really think if I was a Russian soldier, my only goal would be to surrender myself into Ukrainian custody ASAP ...

The trouble with that is that if Ukraine loses, the prison gets 'liberated', or there's a prisoner exchange, you'd likely face a firing squad.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

The spiv nonce camicia nera Berlusconi backs barbarian Putin regime

 

[Yossarian]

The spiv nonce camicia nera Berlusconi backs barbarian Putin regime

Seems kind of appropriate that plastic surgery has left Berlusconi looking like a ventriloquist's dummy.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Fash supports fash shocker.

 

[The39thStep]

What sort of world are we living in when even the MSM can't report accurately what a media tycoon says

Berlusconi released a statement on Friday in which he said his views were "oversimplified". “Aggression against Ukraine is unjustifiable and unacceptable. [Forza Italia's] position is clear. We will always be with the EU and NATO”, he underlined.

 

[Yossarian]

What sort of world are we living in when even the MSM can't report accurately what a media tycoon says

It's kind of like how Trump complains that the media is slandering him when it writes down the words he said.

Berlusconi apparently believes his kindly friend Vlad was bamboozled by the wily Russian media.

"Putin was pushed by the Russian population, by his party and by his ministers to invent this special operation," he said.
"The troops were supposed to enter, reach Kyiv in a week, replace the Zelensky government with decent people and a week later come back," Mr Berlusconi added. "Instead they found an unexpected resistance, which was then fed by arms of all kinds from the West."