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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

:hmm: it's Wednesday not Friday and Truss, Biden, Marron are at the UN


As much as Putin has talked a load of bollox, reason to be weary, especially Miss Truss...
She did just win a Premiership saying she was prepared to use nukes..she did fly to Russia and tell them she wanted the Russian base (in Russia where the invading troops originated from) to be Ukranian...That was a not read the brief fuck up..but the Russians knew that and knew she meant the annexed lands...so there could be a problem..

Mainly coz the Ukranians aren't slaves (do have some debts though). It's their war, in defense of their country...may well fight on regardless of Western nerves over reversing annexation
 
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And a full retaliatory strike on Russia would also result in a New World Order with Australia at the top of the tree. I think a nuclear response would be a mistake by any country looking to win. The thing to do would be to pour NATO ground troops into Ukraine and start taking out Russian subs. Pushing the big red button immediately just means a score draw and early baths all round.
While the wargaming talk is going on, was told by a regular at Kings Colleges War Departments annual War Games conference that they've been running NATO v Russia in Ukraine games since 2014:

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..
 
A thread worth reading on the Russian 'partial mobilisation'.



The TLDR version is that it carries benefits and risks - it can plug holes, but only some of them, and it can't improve training, or reduce corruption, make the Russian army better at complex combined arms manoeuvre warfare, or make it's equipment work better.

They also have a direct quantity Vs quality problem: the more they mobilise the less well trained the output will be - a very unvirtuous circle...
 
Vesna Russia's anti-war movement are now urging for nationwide protests across Russia. Fingers crossed for them. Their statement reads:

"No to grave isolation! A nationwide protest. Tonight, 21st September, at 1900 hours. Across all cites."

"Vladimir Putin has just announced a 'partial mobilisation in Russia. This means that thousands of Russian men - our fathers, brothers and husbands - will be thrown into the meat grinder of war. What will they die for? What will their mothers and children be shedding tears for? For Putin's palace?"

"Now war will truly come to every home and every family. The authorities used to say that only 'professionals' were fighting - and that they would win."

"It turned out that they would not - and prisoners began to be recruited to the front. And now mobilisation was announced."

"So the situation is extremely grave. The war is no longer 'out there' - it has come to our country, to our homes, to our loved ones."

"And they must die to right the wrongs of Putin's regime, which has plunged Russia into horrific carnage, isolation and poverty."

"The deputies and officials who screamed daily about the need to mobilize will remain in their warm chairs - alive and well."

"We believe it is they who should be mobilised and sent to Ukraine - let them die for their own sick fantasies, rather than sending ordinary guys to their deaths."

Vesna announces an all-Russian action against mobilization -we urge you to take to the streets of Russian cities today at 19.00."

"We will announce the locations in Moscow and St Petersburg shortly. In the regions we encourage anti-war initiatives to select locations independently - and advise us in the bot, we will publish the list."

"Sign up for Vesna and enable notifications, so you don't miss the publication of the locations!"

"The protest action is just the beginning. We are confident that the decision to gravely protest could be end for this government. The country needs to get out now. Everything is in our hands!"

"Today, September 21, at 19.00 local time."

"The centre of all Russian cities."




Massive solidarity to all these brave people and those that will turn out.
 
Vox pox from the streets of Moscow. Some are keener than others to die for the Motherland. One doesn't want to fight for other people's palaces; one is going to hide in his mum's basement; and one just wants to put local politicians up against the wall.


 
Vesna Russia's anti-war movement are now urging for nationwide protests across Russia. Fingers crossed for them. Their statement reads:

"No to grave isolation! A nationwide protest. Tonight, 21st September, at 1900 hours. Across all cites."

"Vladimir Putin has just announced a 'partial mobilisation in Russia. This means that thousands of Russian men - our fathers, brothers and husbands - will be thrown into the meat grinder of war. What will they die for? What will their mothers and children be shedding tears for? For Putin's palace?"

"Now war will truly come to every home and every family. The authorities used to say that only 'professionals' were fighting - and that they would win."

"It turned out that they would not - and prisoners began to be recruited to the front. And now mobilisation was announced."

"So the situation is extremely grave. The war is no longer 'out there' - it has come to our country, to our homes, to our loved ones."

"And they must die to right the wrongs of Putin's regime, which has plunged Russia into horrific carnage, isolation and poverty."

"The deputies and officials who screamed daily about the need to mobilize will remain in their warm chairs - alive and well."

"We believe it is they who should be mobilised and sent to Ukraine - let them die for their own sick fantasies, rather than sending ordinary guys to their deaths."

Vesna announces an all-Russian action against mobilization -we urge you to take to the streets of Russian cities today at 19.00."

"We will announce the locations in Moscow and St Petersburg shortly. In the regions we encourage anti-war initiatives to select locations independently - and advise us in the bot, we will publish the list."

"Sign up for Vesna and enable notifications, so you don't miss the publication of the locations!"

"The protest action is just the beginning. We are confident that the decision to gravely protest could be end for this government. The country needs to get out now. Everything is in our hands!"

"Today, September 21, at 19.00 local time."

"The centre of all Russian cities."




Massive solidarity to all these brave people and those that will turn out.
Will this revolution be televised anywhere?
 
Mad to think that just over a century ago, kinda similar domestic background stuff was going on in Russia and the army losing whatever morale it had left. That ended up with Russia ceding Ukraine as part of its escape to prop up stability back home
If you're bored and want something to read, the story of the Northern Fleet and their redeployment to the Far East - which ended in the Battle of Tsushima - is a great historical saga. Similar tale of much vaunted force turning out to be a barely trained crew of gunfodder with low morale. And was one of the direct causes of the Revolution itself. They almost started a war with Britain before they'd even got going!
 
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