Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[frogwoman]

Even Russian allies aren't going to recognise the result of those 'referendums' tho. He could declare my house a part of Russia it doesn't mean it has any legal basis.

 

[agricola]

Even Russian allies aren't going to recognise the result of those 'referendums' tho. He could declare my house a part of Russia it doesn't mean it has any legal basis.

They don't have to, they just have to call for peace / negotiations / whatever (all of which mean the Ukrainian Army to stop attacking) once an opportunity presents itself.

 

[Spymaster]

I'm more concerned if it's actually worth me putting the slates back on my roof

Maybe put them back on the roof you took them off, as a final gesture of goodwill.

 

[DaveCinzano]

Maybe put them back on the roof you took them off, as a final gesture of goodwill.

Steady on, it's not quite that bad yet

 

[tim]

What is the Russian plan if the vote in the referendums is against annexation and for rejoining Ukraine?

 

[Spymaster]

What is the Russian plan if the vote in the referendums is against annexation and for rejoining Ukraine?

Put some people in prison and have some more referendums.

 

[andysays]

What is the Russian plan if the vote in the referendums is against annexation and for rejoining Ukraine?

I wonder if Putin has had a chat with David Cameron before announcing this...

 

[two sheds]

A nuke going off is liable to make people very twitchy and before you know it someone’s pressed the wrong button.

and opened the garage doors

 

[kabbes]

What is the Russian plan if the vote in the referendums is against annexation and for rejoining Ukraine?

I think the Russian plan rather precludes the vote in the referendums being against annexation and for rejoining Ukraine

 

[Yossarian]

What is the Russian plan if the vote in the referendums is against annexation and for rejoining Ukraine?

I don't think these are going to be the kind of referendums where they give people a choice or count the votes.

 

[emanymton]

I don't think these are going to be the kind of referendums where they give people a choice or count the votes.

But based on Russian performance so far they will probably lose them anyway.

 

[belboid]

They’ll win them without trying because the vast majority opposed to the idea got the fuck out after the declarations of ‘independence’ eight years ago.

 

[strung out]

For all the alarming bits of that speech (and there were loads), there were a few bits that might suggest what Putin said to Modi and Erdogan (and possibly others) about wanting the war to end as soon as possible might be what these "referendums" and the mobilization are about.

Putin didn't mention regime change in his speech, and he said the main goal was the liberation of the Donbas. Shoigu said that those called up with stay on the territory of the RF and defend the 1000km frontline / rear areas. If they were to have these referendums, they deliver the required result and then they declared mission accomplished, one wonders what the response of the West and the rest of the world would be if they announced the fighting from their side would stop at that point? I rather think there would be a lot who'd say "well, too difficult to take them back now, we'll guarantee Ukraine and not recognize the annexations".

Modi and Erdogan can't stop Ukraine from fighting, and Ukraine's western allies have already committed to supporting Ukraine in regaining all of its lost territory - a Russian ceasefire isn't going to change that.

Besides, given that Russia are planning to annexe parts of Ukraine they don't even have control of (eastern Donetsk, northern Zaporizhzhia, western Kherson), surely they'll want to press on and liberate their Russian territories, right?

 

[strung out]

They’ll win them without trying because the vast majority opposed to the idea got the fuck out after the declarations of ‘independence’ eight years ago.

Don't think they'll be able to get the ballot boxes to the Ukrainian held bits of the oblasts they want to annexe either.

 

[teuchter]

What it won't result in is armageddon,

One of the most distressing things about the situation is that if this is incorrect, it will not be possible to quote it and gain the satisfaction of saying "you were wrong".

 

[frogwoman]

Don't think they'll be able to get the ballot boxes to the Ukrainian held bits of the oblasts they want to annexe either.

Reports that they're forcing prisoners to vote for these referendums.

 

[maomao]

One of the most distressing things about the situation is that if this is incorrect, it will not be possible to quote it and gain the satisfaction of saying "you were wrong".

I'm sure plenty of people will be using their last four minutes on the earth to log on to the internet and say 'See! I told you so!'

I'm trying not to panic too much and I already bought my wind up radio and put supplies in the shelter in February. I don't buy this living envying the dead bollocks.

 

[RainbowTown]

He is a desperate man now, drinking in the last chance saloon. And desperate people can and do do desperate things. His irrational and rhetorical threats towards the West (and others) are, of course, nothing new. We've seen it all before. But - and it's a big but- we are now in unchartered territory ; it's a roll of the dice as to how it plays out and what the outcome will be. Let's just hope it's a positive one.

 

[Kaka Tim]

it's a roll of the dice as to how it plays out and what the outcome will be. Let's just hope it's a positive one.

 

[Pickman's model]

tbf in star trek time line the 3rd world war was 2026

History will show they were only a year out

 

[Pickman's model]

He is a desperate man now, drinking in the last chance saloon. And desperate people can and do do desperate things. His irrational and rhetorical threats towards the West (and others) are, of course, nothing new. We've seen it all before. But - and it's a big but- we are now in unchartered territory ; it's a roll of the dice as to how it plays out and what the outcome will be. Let's just hope it's a positive one.

Just how many last chances does putin have, sure we're on number 5 or 6

 

[Cid]

Just how many last chances does putin have, sure we're on number 5 or 6

This is, apparently, the first time. On this thread anyway.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm sure plenty of people will be using their last four minutes on the earth to log on to the internet and say 'See! I told you so!'

I'm trying not to panic too much and I already bought my wind up radio and put supplies in the shelter in February. I don't buy this living envying the dead bollocks.

It's early days yet, you'll come round

 

[jimbarkanoodle]

This article is quite reassuring

Putin is admitting his previous threats were hollow by saying ‘this is not a bluff’ | Keir Giles

The Russian leader’s fantastical speech shows he recognises that his country is losing its war on Ukraine, says Keir Giles of the Russia programme at Chatham House

www.theguardian.com

 

[2hats]

A380 waste of time mate - if we start exchanging buckets of sunshine you don't want to survive. Go outside and make it quick...

Though only a practical, viable strategy if you have prior knowledge of targeting and can locate yourself within a couple of k of the CEP (highly variable, terrain dependent outcome).

 

[The39thStep]

What is the Russian plan if the vote in the referendums is against annexation and for rejoining Ukraine?

Tried and tested one would be to call for a second referendum, post pictures of empty shelves in supermarkets, and have Twitter/Telegram tags with #FBPR ?

 

[The39thStep]

Just how many last chances does putin have, sure we're on number 5 or 6

Plus the fact that his health has been up and down like a yoyo

 

[Pickman's model]

Fascinated to see how the Russian public react to this. If they really are that brainwashed etc and go with it, the big old mess in Ukraine is going to get a whole lot worse.

How fortunate that people in the UK are never brainwashed

 

[A380]

So, Putin’s paying to get the result he wants in a referendum to get people to leave a political entity when that is clearly against their personal and national interests. Presumably there will be a local popularist right wing politician to act as a figure head and trouser some Kremlin cash for their troubles?

How fortunate such a thing could never happen in England and Wales…

 

[Bingoman]

Just how many last chances does putin have, sure we're on number 5 or 6

That sound like his cat with nine lives and his lives are running out?