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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Putin has announced partial mobilisation, starting immediately for reservists and those with military experience.

Summary of his address here:

 
He’s again selling a version that is so detached from reality, the hutzpah on show is quite something; the west is trying to destroy Russia, the west is preventing peace in Ukraine, our aim is to liberate Donbas. When all that has happened is Russia has launched a war against their neighbour.

I do wonder how many Russians are really fooled by this?
 
I don't think Russians are fooled by the commentary on the progression the war - everyone knows it's gone badly: the 'accidents', the acts of goodwill, the changing of objectives, and then this partial mobilisation - but the claimed wider hostility of NATO towards Russia, the apparent desire of the West to flood Russian with Transgender Africans and then burn down the Russian Orthodox church, yeah, they broadly - to whatever degree - believe, or have some sympathy, with that.
 
BBC R4 News has got a Russian spokesperson on now who actually sounds quite unhinged, bit scary tbh. (Edited2A: And yes, before I get slated, I know 'unhinged' isn't a great political analysis and I'm not putting this down to some 'they're all insane' thing, but fucking hell not very hopeful impression he gave.)
 
BBC R4 News has got a Russian spokesperson on now who actually sounds quite unhinged, bit scary tbh. (Edited2A: And yes, before I get slated, I know 'unhinged' isn't a great political analysis and I'm not putting this down to some 'they're all insane' thing, but fucking hell not very hopeful impression he gave.)

What did he say?
 
Fascinated to see how the Russian public react to this. If they really are that brainwashed etc and go with it, the big old mess in Ukraine is going to get a whole lot worse.
 
Well, that was a bit scary...

The partial mobilisation of troops was expected, not sure how it will play out considering they are struggling getting supplies to those already fighting, and how motivated will these new troop be.

The nuclear threat is nothing new, and that option remains a major problem for Putin, because he knows the support from likes of China & India is already drifting away, I don't think the risk is any greater than it was yesterday, just a lot of hot air for the home audience.
 
Apparently, Putin is to address the Russian people 8pm Moscow time tonight. Reports also say Sergei Shoigu his minister of Defence will deliver an address straight after. A sign maybe of a greater military mobilization/escalation? This conflict is now about to enter a wholly new phase.
I think the new phase is all about holding current occupied territory seemingly being whittled away by Ukraine military, hence the call up of reservists, of referendum, and of peace sounds via Erdogan. In a way it's a deescelation of wider goals
 
Some insight from Pjotr Sauer, who is a Russia affairs correspondent for the Guardian, about how it is/will play out in Russia.

Vladimir Putin’s decision to announce a partial mobilisation has sent shockwaves across Russia on Wednesday morning. Since the start of the war, Putin has sought to shield his population from the grim realities of his war, with the Kremlin eager to cultivate a sense of normality on the streets of Moscow and other major cities.

Many responded to these efforts, with polls consistently showing that average Russian was quickly tuning away from the war. But with the decision to announce a partial mobilisation and the call-up of 300,000 mostly young Russian men, the war will now enter the household of many families across the country. The partial mobilisation will also be seen as a major admission of the Kremlin’s military failures in Ukraine. For months, the Kremlin pledged that it wasn’t going to resort to such measures, insisting that the so-called “special military operation” was going to plan.

The decision to mobilise will be welcomed by the pro-war bloggers and ultra-nationalist figures who have become some of Putin’s fiercest critics over the last few weeks following Russia’s swift retreat from the Kharkiv region in Ukraine

LINK
 
I think the new phase is all about holding current occupied territory seemingly being whittled away by Ukraine military, hence the call up of reservists, of referendum, and of peace sounds via Erdogan. In a way it's a deescelation of wider goals

Well it's obviously that, but more as well. By holding these silly referendums he gets to cry 'invasion of Russian territory' when Ukraine strikes into them. They've always claimed they wouldn't use nuclear weapons unless Russia was invaded. He's paving the way to do that.
 
Originally published a couple of weeks ago but only just come across it:

 
If Putin nukes Ukraine I would assume that would trigger WW3 since the west would have to reply.

Makes the 30p price increase on the price of Butter in Tesco this morning seem somewhat irrelevant.

:(

When I was a kid, the 2020's were meant to be the point we travelled to space. According to the books I read about 'the future'. Not an era of pandemic and nuclear uncertainty.

I always wanted to see the future. Not sure I want it served in mushroom cloud
 
Well technically they don't because Ukraine's not in NATO. That's why Putin thinks he might be able to get away with it.

I think it's very clear that there would be a retaliatory strike from the west and doubt for a second that Putin thinks otherwise. A lack of response would mean a whole new world order with Russia at the top of the tree, invading others at will. No way there wouldn't be a nuclear response to a first strike by Russia.
 
Quite, well, MAD

Putin's logic, I mean, not just what would happen if he's daft enough to try a "tactical" nuke.
{that assumes that a) his order would be obeyed and b) the kit still works}
 
Well technically they don't because Ukraine's not in NATO. That's why Putin thinks he might be able to get away with it.
I know, but an event of such magnitude would surely necessitate a reply. I don't want WW3, which such a response would surely trigger, but dropping a modern day strength nuke would change everything, would i not?
 
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