Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[kebabking]

Well technically they don't because Ukraine's not in NATO. That's why Putin thinks he might be able to get away with it.

It's all a bit amorphous.

While Ukraine isn't in NATO, individual NATO members can choose to extend their nuclear umbrella to whomsoever they chose - so Australia, Taiwan for example are both widely considered to be under the US nuclear umbrella - there's also that while a nuclear strike might happen in Ukraine, it could easily be argued that the radiological attack had taken place against any state where the fallout landed - and based on where it went after Chernobyl - that's a lot of NATO states.

I think the big thing is that Putin, and the wider Russian power/cultural structures, thinks he can because everyone else is afraid of Russia, and in the end will back down.

The rest is technicalities, what matters is the big theme.

 

[Pickman's model]

So kebabking I imagine you are limited to what you can share on here; but should I start unscrewing all my doors and painting my windows white today?

Tomorrow will be soon enough

 

[maomao]

I think it's very clear that there would be a retaliatory strike from the west and doubt for a second that Putin thinks otherwise. A lack of response would mean a whole new world order with Russia at the top of the tree, invading others at will. No way there wouldn't be a nuclear response to a first strike by Russia.

And a full retaliatory strike on Russia would also result in a New World Order with Australia at the top of the tree. I think a nuclear response would be a mistake by any country looking to win. The thing to do would be to pour NATO ground troops into Ukraine and start taking out Russian subs. Pushing the big red button immediately just means a score draw and early baths all round.

 

[Karl Masks]

And a full retaliatory strike on Russia would also result in a New World Order with Australia at the top of the tree. I think a nuclear response would be a mistake by any country looking to win. The thing to do would be to pour NATO ground troops into Ukraine and start taking out Russian subs. Pushing the big red button immediately just means a score draw and early baths all round.

If you send in troops then doesn't that risk giving Putin the provocation he craves?

As for an Aussie NWO. Fair dinkum I say

(noone's laughing)

 

[existentialist]

Quite, well, MAD

Putin's logic, I mean, not just what would happen if he's daft enough to try a "tactical" nuke.
{that assumes that a) his order would be obeyed and b) the kit still works}

I think that a likely outcome would be for use of a tactical nuclear weapon to be met with a significant conventional escalation - more/better weapons, a more overt defensive posture in Poland/Baltic states, and a big chunk of nuclear "we're not bluffing, either". I don't think it's going to go straight from a Putin tactical nuke to a MAD nuclear exchange.

 

[Cid]

And a full retaliatory strike on Russia would also result in a New World Order with Australia at the top of the tree. I think a nuclear response would be a mistake by any country looking to win. The thing to do would be to pour NATO ground troops into Ukraine and start taking out Russian subs. Pushing the big red button immediately just means a score draw and early baths all round.

Yeah I suspect it might be more of that order...an immediately imposed no-fly zone (a one-sided one I mean), threats to engage any Russian navy/air operating outside territory. Deployment of NATO troops on the ground into potential nuke zone, not sure. But certainly on the table.

Hopefully we do not find out.

 

[Chz]

Putin is not likely to use a strategic nuke on his nextdoor neighbour, even without considering the whole "end of Russia" thing. You're looking at a potential use of tactical devices. His biggest problem then becomes twofold:

NATO will see this as a good reason to actually commit their own forces to the conflict, and de-fang Russia as quickly as possible. I would expect air assets in use within hours, not days.
China will stop supporting him. The largest standing army in the world does not want to face a future where the use of tactical nuclear weapons is considered to be "OK".

What it won't result in is armageddon, so long as NATO makes it clear that the Ukrainian border is the limit of their ground offensive. I would expect things inside Russia to get the shit hammered out of them from the air, though.

 

[Ax^]

If Putin nukes Ukraine I would assume that would trigger WW3 since the west would have to reply.

Makes the 30p price increase on the price of Butter in Tesco this morning seem somewhat irrelevant.



When I was a kid, the 2020's were meant to be the point we travelled to space. According to the books I read about 'the future'. Not an era of pandemic and nuclear uncertainty.

I always wanted to see the future. Not sure I want it served in mushroom cloud

tbf in star trek time line the 3rd world war was 2026

 

[Dystopiary]

Full text of "mobilisation decree" from Dimitri the War Translated guy:

Spoiler: 1

Spoiler: 2

Spoiler: 3

 

[MickiQ]

tbf in star trek time line the 3rd world war was 2026

True but we missed out on the whole Eugenics Wars thing so not too worried in that regard

 

[frogwoman]

Tbh I'm not worried about nukes. No way would he use them against a nato country, even he isn't that stupid. More worried about an escalation of brutality in Ukraine anc Russia itself.

I really don't think the visa bans and the recent announcement by Latvia that they aren't going to let anyone fleeing mobilisation in is going to help at all.

 

[frogwoman]

NATO will see this as a good reason to actually commit their own forces to the conflict, and de-fang Russia as quickly as possible.

No they won't.

 

[Karl Masks]

tbf in star trek time line the 3rd world war was 2026

was that before or after the genetic superhumans waged a war of racial purity?

 

[kebabking]

No they won't.

I think it would be unwise to imagine there are solid ideas, and solid lines either way.

 

[The39thStep]

No they won't.

anyone else irritated by the use of the term de-fang?

 

[Chz]

No they won't.

Biden is a Cold Warrior. He won't sit back and do nothing about nuclear weapons - even the little ones - being used. Perhaps he may act unilaterally, without NATO, but I suspect they'd back it. It may very well take too long to get actual ground forces in the area, but you'd expect the Russian Air Force to cease to exist within 100 miles of their border. I wouldn't hold out much hope for what's left of the Black Sea Fleet, either.

But yeah, maybe I'm wrong and the world of 2022 is totally cool with nukes being lobbed about. I just really hope not.

 

[Chz]

anyone else irritated by the use of the term de-fang?

But it's so much shorter than "destroy the ability to wage war". And the press just loves it so much, too.

 

[frogwoman]

Tbh I think if Putin could have used nukes he would have by now. It was obvious in the first weeks of the war that he wasn't going to have a victory parade in Kyiv

 

[Flavour]

I am slightly shitting it tbh

 

[not-bono-ever]

I should have stayed in Svarlbard and locked myself into the seed vault they have up there

 

[Artaxerxes]

The thing about nukes is once they start flying all bets are off, that’s the fucking point of them.

A nuke going off is liable to make people very twitchy and before you know it someone’s pressed the wrong button.

 

[emanymton]

I think there are still several steps before nuclear weapons are on the table.

Full rather than partial mobilisation for one.

Use of chemical and biological weapons would also come first I'd think. I know there are some rummers they have been used already. But nothing concrete or widespread.
I fucking hope not though.

 

[MickiQ]

was that before or after the genetic superhumans waged a war of racial purity?

At the risk of outing myself as a hardcore Trekkie, it was after. The Eugenics Wars ran from 1992 to 1996 and ended with Khan Noonien Singh and 84 of his followers legging it in a sublight sleeper ship (also noticeably the sort of thing that was missing in the real 1990's) before the Enterprise found them again in 2267 in the episode Space Seed.
Khan played by Ricardo Montalban went on to be the truly awesome villain of the second (and possibly the best) movie.

 

[frogwoman]

He's been threatening nukes since day 1 tho tbh

 

[Chz]

I think there are still several steps before nuclear weapons are on the table.

Full rather than partial mobilisation for one.

Use of chemical and biological weapons would also come first I'd think. I know there are some rummers they have been used already. But nothing concrete or widespread.
I fucking hope not though.

I'd agree it's very unlikely. But sadly not impossible.

 

[Artaxerxes]

I think there are still several steps before nuclear weapons are on the table.

Full rather than partial mobilisation for one.

Use of chemical and biological weapons would also come first I'd think. I know there are some rummers they have been used already. But nothing concrete or widespread.
I fucking hope not though.

This is likely Putin making sure the army can’t just quit contracts and dragging in meat along with the usual rhetoric about look how powerful we are. But yes he’s got all sorts of nasty shit in his arsenal besides nukes

 

[agricola]

For all the alarming bits of that speech (and there were loads), there were a few bits that might suggest what Putin said to Modi and Erdogan (and possibly others) about wanting the war to end as soon as possible might be what these "referendums" and the mobilization are about.

Putin didn't mention regime change in his speech, and he said the main goal was the liberation of the Donbas. Shoigu said that those called up with stay on the territory of the RF and defend the 1000km frontline / rear areas. If they were to have these referendums, they deliver the required result and then they declared mission accomplished, one wonders what the response of the West and the rest of the world would be if they announced the fighting from their side would stop at that point? I rather think there would be a lot who'd say "well, too difficult to take them back now, we'll guarantee Ukraine and not recognize the annexations".

 

[Bingoman]

Just read an article on Sky news website war in Ukraine latest page were Russian reservists are not experience enough and have not been trained

 

[friedaweed]

So kebabking I imagine you are limited to what you can share on here; but should I start unscrewing all my doors and painting my windows white today?

I'm more concerned if it's actually worth me putting the slates back on my roof

 

[Combustible]

I'm a bit unclear who this pool of 25 million reservists are. It apparently doesn't include conscripts but is about half the adult male population. Does everyone become a reservist after finishing conscription?