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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

That's why he can't go for a full mobilisation, it's all very well getting anti middle class points by cracking down on Navalny supporters and upmarket western brands but he can't fucking dare on something as explosive as full conscription.
Already pretending the 15k troops irritating Japan are 50k + deals with North Korea over artillery and Iran over drones, cupboards looking pretty bear
 
A possible, unconfirmed, further "Tactical withdrawal" to be within the umbrella of the RU artillery on the east bank of the Dniepr (which can still be supplied with ammunition).

But when the UA get to the RU lines that puts all the artillery within range of HIMARS so it looks like the RU have run out of good options and only have bad ones left.



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Whoever is in charge of the Ukrainian military is playing a blinder. They now have the Russians in a bind - they have to hold Kherson - but cant reinforce it as they rush to shore up kharkiv - at the same time there is speculation that the UA have a third battle group about to launch an attack somewhere else- possibly towards maripoul - which may well be another misdirection but the Russians have no idea of knowing and will be paranoid as fuck following being totally thrown by the kharkiv assault. Initiative is now completely with the Ukrainians as all the Russians can do is react as best they can.
Also you can only imagine what is doing to the morale of their troops when all their bloody efforts to advance over the past six months have just been jeopardised and they are being sent backwards and forwards, stuck in traffic jams shitting yourself about an imminent attack by artillery or drones, and with every indication of panic at the top. Throw in all the rumours that will be flying around and you an army under severe stress.
 
The last week has pretty firmly put to bed the fallacy from utter cretins that supplying arms to Ukraine would only prolong the conflict unnecessarily.

HIMARS, M777s, air defense and lots and lots of ammunition has already helped Ukraine to liberate more territory in a week than Russia managed to take in 6 months, and will help them end this war sooner rather than later.
 
that half the commentators (and one of the mods) seem to be of the "wtf are we doing" faction, even after being threatened, is cheering
Yes this is the first time during the war that I've been able to face looking at Russian tv propaganda at all, despite my usual interest in observing propaganda of all sorts. Will try to make more of a habit of it now if this sort of stuff keeps coming.
 
I am still amazed that Russian TV is reporting on the trouble their troops are in.

Ukrainian forces outnumbered Russians by eight to one in last week's counter-attack in the Kharkiv region, Russia's top occupation official there says.
Vitaly Ganchev told Russian TV that Ukraine's army had taken villages in the north and broken through to the Russian border.

 
Worth bearing in mind that this is some way down the ranking of russian politics programmes (I am told). At the top of the bill, the message is still very clear:

 
It's still all very 'the kings bad advisers' tho. And Russian propaganda is famous for allowing 'ridiculous' critics of Putin on to play 'devils advocate' - 'See, we're a democracy, we allow this idiot on TV to say that Putin is a twat'
Yeah it is, but what's striking about that clip to me is not so much what Nadezhdin says as what is said by the others in response. They warn him about the language he's using but not so much about the message. There's clearly real anger among the warmongers about how badly it's going.
 
Worth bearing in mind that this is some way down the ranking of russian politics programmes (I am told). At the top of the bill, the message is still very clear:


The 2nd tweet yesterday had a 2nd video with more clips from that particular channel, and in the 2nd half of the video one programme shown featured one of the same blokes - at the end he is shown addressing the 'nervous ones' with stuff about how Stalin called for those who panic to be shot. 2nd video shown below (I cant seem to quote twitter in a way that doesnt also show the first one thats already been posted here)

 
A thought worth thinking about

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Except - if they're really at war with NATO why not mobilise? (Yes, I know why not... but) are they hoping to incite popular desire to mobilise by repeating the story of existential threat? And how will that square with all the stories of demoralised soldiers who lack decent equipment, food, and effective leadership?
 
It's a bit like the Iraqi guy in Baghdad going on about well the war is going when you can see the American tanks behind him. They guy trying to talk sense is clearly in the minority for now but the fact he's willing to go against the party line is something.
The thing is saying well it's all down to NATO supplied weapons carries with it the implied statement that NATO weapons are better than Russian ones and the West is more technologically advanced than the Motherland.
 
I don't know how exactly to read these Russian panel shows. My guess is that they are somewhat scripted but probably not down to the finest detail, in the way that some British comedy panel shows have jokes planned in advance.

It could be that the state is losing control of the media a bit. It could also be that, if you are considering doing something other than ploughing on (which surely you must be by this stage), then you need to introduce other alternatives into the public discourse. You maybe even need to be developing a narrative that will explain your defeat.
 
The thing is saying well it's all down to NATO supplied weapons carries with it the implied statement that NATO weapons are better than Russian ones and the West is more technologically advanced than the Motherland.

It is starting to feel like that, and that all Putin has achieved is to show the world that Russia’s a paper tiger, albeit one with nuclear weapons; and that with a determined proxy, the west can militarily fuck them without putting a single NATO boot on the ground (supposedly ;)).

The question is, where does that leave Russia?

Surely a very dangerous place to be.
 
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