Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Kaka Tim]

I know very little about miltary stuff, what surprised me about the Russian attack in February, I didn't hear anything about Russia's version of the HARM missile being used, something that would automatically seek and destory a radar site. Nor was there any reports of Russian aircraft using laser guided bombs (perhaps there were some, if there are, its rarely reported). For a country that likes to see itself as a miltary force equivalent to the USA, Russian fighter aircraft appear to be lacking key weapons.

One of the reason's for Ukrainians success in the north, is the use of HARM missiles to destory Russian air defence systems and systems to protect Ukrainians from Russian aircraft.

is there a non subscription version of the economist article available?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Who? Ukraine? I suspect that they've probably got their eye on that, particularly given what an appalling job Russia has made of its logistics throughout the war.

If the Ukrainians need fuel they can just siphon it out of one the 800 slightly used tanks they've just acquired.

 

[cupid_stunt]

is there a non subscription version of the economist article available?

here you go - archive.ph

 

[frogwoman]

Yes, kind of. But the glee over dead and injured youngsters from people with no connection to Ukraine is unsettling, especially given that plenty of those youngsters are from disadvantaged backgrounds (not even considered "truly Russian" back home). It's great the Russians are being pushed back, but bloody hell.

I've seen some really sadistic suggestions about what should be done with surrendering Russians, and not from Ukrainians.

It's pretty much exclusively lower working class and ethnic minority kids from outside Moscow. There are so many exemptions that anyone with the slightest bit of money can get out of it.

 

[existentialist]

TBF I'd be truly amazed if they ran out of those 23mm shells, they must have produced them in nine or ten figure numbers.

There's having them, and then there's having them where you need them. Big difference.

 

[frogwoman]

I wouldn't want to be in Belgorod or Rostov atm

 

[frogwoman]

(no sensitive content here)

 

[agricola]

I wouldn't want to be in Belgorod or Rostov atm

I suppose it all depends on how the Ukrainians hold that front - can't see them going into Russia itself, and they've not seriously shelled into Russia so far either.

 

[Rob Ray]

They can't do any official invading if they want to keep Western aid coming in but I'd not be surprised if there's some unofficial/deniable stuff (oh no another ammo dump blew up? So sad), and they won't be able to just sit at the border otherwise they'll be getting shelled whenever Russia fancies.

 

[kebabking]

Russian cigarette discipline does seem to be somewhat lacking...

 

[Kaka Tim]

I dont really understand why Putin doesn't declare it an actual war and call for a full mobilisation (its not like the media will give him a hard time)- not that it will do him much good militarily at this stage.

 

[Cid]

Seems Russia has hit elements of Kharkiv power infrastructure (coal plants and maybe hydro?). Another war crime I think? Well, hope they can work on repairs, inevitably will be deaths among workers though (excuse the offhanded tone of that comment).

Slightly wider; RU obviously has some precision strike capability left, I suppose this acts as retaliation/warning. But I'm guessing UA is well aware of that.

Tweet from graun correspondent will serve as entry to the rabbit hole for anyone interested:

 

[agricola]

I dont really understand why Putin doesn't declare it an actual war and call for a full mobilisation (its not like the media will give him a hard time)- not that it will do him much good militarily at this stage.

Who knows at this point; it could even be that (even in their system) it would be fear of media / commentators backlash that forced him into doing that.

 

[emanymton]

Who knows at this point; it could even be that (even in their system) it would be fear of media / commentators backlash that forced him into doing that.

I think he is backed into a corner. Doing it now would be an admission things have got out control and are not going according to plan.

 

[friedaweed]

Russian cigarette discipline does seem to be somewhat lacking...

I thought soldiers had a steady supply of cigs, chocolate and stockings since WW2. Have ration packs suffered from shrink-flation along with the diminishing size of wagon wheels?

 

[frogwoman]

Should say that the Wagner Group and the PMCs are a different matter, and they're being heavily relied on by the Russian state

 

[Dogsauce]

I dont really understand why Putin doesn't declare it an actual war and call for a full mobilisation (its not like the media will give him a hard time)- not that it will do him much good militarily at this stage.

Because he doesn’t want to have to send the sons of well-to-do folks around Moscow and other western Russian cities into the fight because he’ll get a backlash from entitled middle class parents, there will be murmuring and the raising of posses on whatever the Russian equivalent of Nextdoor is. Best leave the actual fighting to desperate ’volunteers’ from the boondocks and aging ex-military that want a go at war again.

 

[Dogsauce]

Seems Russia has hit elements of Kharkiv power infrastructure (coal plants and maybe hydro?). Another war crime I think? Well, hope they can work on repairs, inevitably will be deaths among workers though (excuse the offhanded tone of that comment).

Slightly wider; RU obviously has some precision strike capability left, I suppose this acts as retaliation/warning. But I'm guessing UA is well aware of that.

Tweet from graun correspondent will serve as entry to the rabbit hole for anyone interested:

It’s probable retaliation for half of Belgorod city loosing power a couple of days ago after a major substation was struck, although the word on the street was that this was actually caused by a Russian missile failing and falling back to earth just after launch.

Hopefully the territorial gains up to the border will at least put most of Kharkiv out of the range of Russian tube artillery and standard MLRS, they‘ve been terrorised for months. Longer range stuff can still hit them from within Russia unfortunately.

 

[frogwoman]

Should say that you really don't have to be very well off at all to get out of military service, there are plenty of poor and working class people in Moscow and hardly any of them are there. It's really easy to get out of it there unless you live in like Dagestan or Buryatia or something (where many of the soldiers dying are from)

 

[frogwoman]

Because he doesn’t want to have to send the sons of well-to-do folks around Moscow and other western Russian cities into the fight because he’ll get a backlash from entitled middle class parents, there will be murmuring and the raising of posses on whatever the Russian equivalent of Nextdoor is. Best leave the actual fighting to desperate ’volunteers’ from the boondocks and aging ex-military that want a go at war again.

The backlash from the middle classes has been there for years. He doesn't care about that. It's not hurt him at all, in fact it gets him some trump like 'anti elitist' points from some quarters

 

[spitfire]

Zelensky is not fucking about. This is addressed to Russia.

Spoiler: tweet

 

[existentialist]

I think something is going to happen in Mariupol.

It'd be a symbolic gain, would sever the Russian occupation, and fits with Ukraine's strategy of bypassing big concentrations of troops. Nice pincer action on Kherson, and putting Crimea in HIMARS range...

 

[SpookyFrank]

It's pretty much exclusively lower working class and ethnic minority kids from outside Moscow. There are so many exemptions that anyone with the slightest bit of money can get out of it.

A lot of them seem to be just legging it at the moment, and I wish them only the best of luck with that.

 

[Raheem]

The backlash from the middle classes has been there for years. He doesn't care about that. It's not hurt him at all, in fact it gets him some trump like 'anti elitist' points from some quarters

When it comes to conscription, I think it would be a mistake to write it off as a middle class/metropolitan concern, though. I wouldn't be surprised if the scaffolding holding up the regime were to just collapse if "proper" war were declared.

 

[tommers]

I think something is going to happen in Mariupol.

It'd be a symbolic gain, would sever the Russian occupation, and fits with Ukraine's strategy of bypassing big concentrations of troops. Nice pincer action on Kherson, and putting Crimea in HIMARS range...

 

[gosub]

I dont really understand why Putin doesn't declare it an actual war and call for a full mobilisation (its not like the media will give him a hard time)- not that it will do him much good militarily at this stage.

Most likely "special military operation" for the same reason Falklands was a 'conflict'. Nobody fights 'wars' anymore due to to the ramifications in things like insurance and legal contracts

 

[existentialist]

Oh. And yes, it's a possibility.

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah no fucking way is it just a middle class concern. Russian society would collapse lol.

When it comes to conscription, I think it would be a mistake to write it off as a middle class/metropolitan concern, though. I wouldn't be surprised if the scaffolding holding up the regime were to just collapse if "proper" war were declared.

 

[frogwoman]

When it comes to conscription, I think it would be a mistake to write it off as a middle class/metropolitan concern, though. I wouldn't be surprised if the scaffolding holding up the regime were to just collapse if "proper" war were declared.

That's why he can't go for a full mobilisation, it's all very well getting anti middle class points by cracking down on Navalny supporters and upmarket western brands but he can't fucking dare on something as explosive as full conscription. It's going to be his working class base that kicks off on that too. And it's not just about money, theres a raft of different jobs that are exempt from getting called up like keyworkers etc. The definition of which is very wide indeed.

 

[frogwoman]

I dont really understand why Putin doesn't declare it an actual war and call for a full mobilisation (its not like the media will give him a hard time)- not that it will do him much good militarily at this stage.

He can't because the people kicking off will go well beyond the usual Muscovite liberals who he can safely ignore