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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

The insurance for a Russian tank must have gone up a good few groups in the last six months.
even if they only went for third party, fire and theft they'd be in trouble. You'd be amazed (actually probably not) the amount of insurance invalidated by war.


As it is, things like all those now worthless airliners underwriters and owners get to throw lots of money at London silks so some judge can decide whats fair
 
It's a bit like the Iraqi guy in Baghdad going on about well the war is going when you can see the American tanks behind him. They guy trying to talk sense is clearly in the minority for now but the fact he's willing to go against the party line is something.
The thing is saying well it's all down to NATO supplied weapons carries with it the implied statement that NATO weapons are better than Russian ones and the West is more technologically advanced than the Motherland.

This is/has been one of the main parts of Russian imperial identity going back centuries, though. Always painfully aware of their technological inferiority in general (denial of access) but ingenuity in specifics or organisation in mobilising resources. The West views Russia as barbarians and also rans of the great powers, but against the odds the nation can be mobilised to do great things.
 
It is starting to feel like that, and that all Putin has achieved is to show the world that Russia’s a paper tiger, albeit one with nuclear weapons; and that with a determined proxy, the west can militarily fuck them without putting a single NATO boot on the ground (supposedly ;)).

The question is, where does that leave Russia?

Surely a very dangerous place to be.
I wonder what the prospects are for Russian arms exports in the future?
 
I wonder what the prospects are for Russian arms exports in the future?



All the big players were there, Zimbabwe, Vietnam and so on...
 
I wonder what the prospects are for Russian arms exports in the future?

Poor. Two reasons, the first is obvious - its shit - and the second is that it has become very apparent that Russian gear is dependent on western tech, and that the west can shut off access to it as and when it chooses.

Russian gear always had two advantages: it was cheap compared to western gear, and that western pearl clutching/hostility wouldn't impact on your military.

One out of two isn't that bad I suppose...
 
  • Municipal deputies from 18 districts of Moscow and St Petersburg have signed a public statement demanding that Vladimir Putin resign. “We, the municipal deputies of Russia, believe that the actions of President V. V. Putin harm the future of Russia and its citizens.
Seems whatever a municipal deputy is (like a town councillor?) can publicly voice criticism of Putin. No idea how significant this could be. Its a step in the right direction for sure.
 
possibility that the russian army is about to collapse? If Kherson falls it might be enough to push them over the edge. If its true that troops are refusing to be redeployed - than those already there might just say "fuck this for a game of soldiers" . We know their morale is shot and their supplies are fucked. Not saying it going to happen and we could be back to grinding attrition up till the winter - but straws in the wind and all dat.
 
A Russian soldier who defected:

Story from a Russian soldier who joined the Freedom of Russia Legion • WarTranslated

They sent us to the slaughter all the time. And so from the first days, as soon as I saw the contrast: between what I was told, shown, what I always thought about the army, and what I saw there. So I realized it was time to end. Well, it’s not my war. I don’t support such barbaric methods. I am against fighting on the territory of a neighboring state in general. All the more, considering methods that fighters of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation sometimes use.

And then, when we came to the surface, we found that our whole camp in the rear was strewn with leaflets. And the leaflets were the contents of the Legion of Free Russia. I had already heard about this organization from my colleagues and fighters because many people had heard about it. We were warned all the time. Our deputy political officers lectured us, saying, “God forbid you to join it, God forbid”.
 
France24 is reporting that the Ukrainians have re-captured some 6000 sq km of territory now, that's double the gains a couple of days ago, and Russian troops continue to surrender.

They showed lots of abandoned Russian equipment and ammunition, with one Ukrainian solider standing in front of a load of shells and explaining they would be sending them back to the Russians as a little present, whilst smirking away.

Journalists are now being allowed into the liberated areas, so we can expect a lot more coverage from the front lines.
 
6m ago13.33

Ukraine: Russian intelligence officers and military commanders flee Crimea, southern Ukraine​

In the Russian-occupied regions of the Crimea and southern Ukraine, Russian proxies, intelligence officers and military commanders have begun to evacuate and “urgently resettle their families” back into Russian territory, the defence intelligence of Ukraine’s military of defence said.

Defence intelligence officials noted that Russian nationals were “secretly trying to sell their homes and to urgently evacuate their relatives from the peninsula”.


From today's (13th Sept) Guardian.

Who knows how this conflict will end and, far more crucially, who it will end badly for. That's anyone's guess. But it appears Putin is currently cornered like a skewed rat. How he (and his cohorts) will react is all but impossible to gauge. Personally - and I hope I'm wrong - I think as dangerous and desperate as it already is, this next phase of the conflict may well prove to have an even more pronounced effect on us than it has already.
 
This is the UA reporting this so skepticism is still needed -- they're understandably taking advantage of the momentum they have to hammer home a psychological blow on the Russians through this propaganda war, but this doesn't necessarily mean the entire Russian Army has collapsed. Reports of the capture of Donetsk airport and incursions towards Kherson turned out to be a bit overly optimistic, though I don't rule out either of these things happening in the coming days/weeks
 
6m ago13.33

Ukraine: Russian intelligence officers and military commanders flee Crimea, southern Ukraine​

In the Russian-occupied regions of the Crimea and southern Ukraine, Russian proxies, intelligence officers and military commanders have begun to evacuate and “urgently resettle their families” back into Russian territory, the defence intelligence of Ukraine’s military of defence said.

Defence intelligence officials noted that Russian nationals were “secretly trying to sell their homes and to urgently evacuate their relatives from the peninsula”.


From today's (13th Sept) Guardian.

Who knows how this conflict will end and, far more crucially, who it will end badly for. That's anyone's guess. But it appears Putin is currently cornered like a skewed rat. How he (and his cohorts) will react is all but impossible to gauge. Personally - and I hope I'm wrong - I think as dangerous and desperate as it already is, this next phase of the conflict may well prove to have an even more pronounced effect on us than it has already.
I suppose it's all still possible.

As much as the risk of Putin using worse weapons than he has already is very scary, if he really has lost momentum he might've missed his window to have those orders carried out. Those around him will have the choice of doing his bidding and becoming trapped in the creation of a madman for the rest of their lives, persona non grata to the rest of the world, no more sunny holidays, no more shopping, no more theoretical prospect of luxury exile, no more anything but life in Russia carrying out his orders until he dies - or, speeding his death along so they don't become his prisoners, destined to facilitate his fantasies for years to come, knowing they missed their window of opportunity.
 
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