Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[spitfire]

A good round up here from Mark Hertling of the successes and challenges faced by UA now. In that uniquely cerebral and clinical language that US officers use when talking about death and destruction.

Thread by @MarkHertling on Thread Reader App

@MarkHertling: Ukraine's Army was likely as surprised as so many others with the speed & success of their Kharkiv offensive over the last five days. It is & continues to be brilliant. But as one who...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[ohmyliver]

he might've missed his window

Given the surprising number of senior people in Russia, or working for Russian companies to have unfortunate window related accidents in recent years, then he might be glad of that.

 

[kebabking]

If you want to watch how an Army turns to shit...

These are Russian soldiers, 6 months into a war, unloading 45 year old, North Korean 122mm rockets - fuelled, with warheads.



Deliberately not in the memes and shitposting thread...

 

[existentialist]

I suppose it's all still possible.

As much as the risk of Putin using worse weapons than he has already is very scary, if he really has lost momentum he might've missed his window to have those orders carried out. Those around him will have the choice of doing his bidding and becoming trapped in the creation of a madman for the rest of their lives, persona non grata to the rest of the world, no more sunny holidays, no more shopping, no more theoretical prospect of luxury exile, no more anything but life in Russia carrying out his orders until he dies - or, speeding his death along so they don't become his prisoners, destined to facilitate his fantasies for years to come, knowing they missed their window of opportunity.

First floor window of opportunity.

 

[A380]

The mastermind Putin, last great defender of the working class in Europe, is luring NATO into his well deigned and impeccably planned trap...

 

[Crispy]

The blood is in the water now

Georgian Dream Party promises to hold referendum on beginning war on Russia

The Georgian Dream Party may organise a nationwide referendum on beginning a war on Russia according to a statement made on September 13, at a briefing at the office of the ruling Georgian Dream party…

euroweeklynews.com

EDIT: This really doesn't look to be the true meaning of the guy's words but I'm leaving it here as an example of why you shouldn't go off half cocked on current events threads

 

[not-bono-ever]

^^ nightmare scenario imo. It’s still a very sore point for the Georgians re Abkhazia and SO obviously. These places - Abkhazia especially- are still mostly in ruins after the previous seriously violent blood letting of the last century. Oof

 

[DaveCinzano]

The blood is in the water now

Georgian Dream Party promises to hold referendum on beginning war on Russia

The Georgian Dream Party may organise a nationwide referendum on beginning a war on Russia according to a statement made on September 13, at a briefing at the office of the ruling Georgian Dream party…

euroweeklynews.com

If you've got to read about the start of WW3, might as well read it in the leading free English language newspaper in Spain (covering the Costa del Sol, Costa Blanca, Almeria, Axarquia, Mallorca and beyond)

 

[Bingoman]

The blood is in the water now

Georgian Dream Party promises to hold referendum on beginning war on Russia

The Georgian Dream Party may organise a nationwide referendum on beginning a war on Russia according to a statement made on September 13, at a briefing at the office of the ruling Georgian Dream party…

euroweeklynews.com

Are they mad?

 

[mojo pixy]

Are they mad?

Mad as hell and they aint gonna take it any more.

 

[Flavour]

Georgia is not going to invade Abkhazia or South Ossetia

 

[DaveCinzano]

Georgia is not going to invade Abkhazia or South Ossetia

Well looky here, seems somebody didn't read the Euro Weekly News with their cornflakes this morning

 

[Crispy]

sourcecheck fail

 

[Bingoman]

This may sound a daft question, but if and it's a big if Georgia win this Referendum how exactly are they going to start this war?

Are they going send troops and tanks across the border?

 

[Crispy]

This may sound a daft question, but if and it's a big if Georgia win this Referendum how exactly are they going to start this war?

Are they going send troops and tanks across the border?

It would be South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the breakaway regions South of the Caucasus mountains backed by Russia.
(if true)

 

[not-bono-ever]

Sukhumi is about an hour from the Georgian Border in a good day. The Abkhazia military are shite but remember last time, they brought in Chechens to cleanse the place of ethnic Georgians. Grim

 

[not-bono-ever]

Check my instagram for pics if you are interested. It’s still a pulverised shithole .

 

[not-bono-ever]

Also Armenia is kicking off. Again

 

[Bingoman]

Sukhumi is about an hour from the Georgian Border in a good day. The Abkhazia military are shite but remember last time, they brought in Chechens to cleanse the place of ethnic Georgians. Grim

So we could have all out all that would spark ww3?

 

[not-bono-ever]

It’s misery_urbex

Lots of Abkhazia stuff in there and other shite but quite far down

 

[not-bono-ever]

.

 

[not-bono-ever]

.

 

[Raheem]

Brexit is not going to happen
Trump is not going to win
Russia is not going to invade Ukraine

Georgia is not going to invade Abkhazia or South Ossetia

 

[Bingoman]

Georgia is not going to invade Abkhazia or South Ossetia

Famous last words

 

[Ming]

I suppose it's all still possible.

As much as the risk of Putin using worse weapons than he has already is very scary, if he really has lost momentum he might've missed his window to have those orders carried out. Those around him will have the choice of doing his bidding and becoming trapped in the creation of a madman for the rest of their lives, persona non grata to the rest of the world, no more sunny holidays, no more shopping, no more theoretical prospect of luxury exile, no more anything but life in Russia carrying out his orders until he dies - or, speeding his death along so they don't become his prisoners, destined to facilitate his fantasies for years to come, knowing they missed their window of opportunity.

I’m very curious to see what level of nihilism/solipsism/rigid ideology the Western security services psychological profiling people view him as having.

 

[frogwoman]

Surely if he was going to use a nuke he'd have used it already? He's had 6 months and it's not as if he's shown much restraint

 

[frogwoman]

We don't even know if the Russian nukes still work.

 

[petee]

The mastermind Putin, last great defender of the working class in Europe, is luring NATO into his well deigned and impeccably planned trap...

he's the defender of Xian civilization after all and is destined to win against godless "international" bureaucrats.

 

[Tanya1982]

First floor window of opportunity.

I think you'd need to go higher than that. Wasting time with the first floor might be just as likely to get you nothing more than a pissed off Putin with a broken arm.

 

[Tanya1982]

I’m very curious to see what level of nihilism/solipsism/rigid ideology the Western security services psychological profiling people view him as having.

Yes it's very interesting.

The World Putin Wants

Distortions about the past feed delusions about the future.

www.foreignaffairs.com

'Putin's People' by Catherine Belton is a great book. I got a lot out of it earlier this year. Substantial, well researched, huge timescale, but accessible journalism rather than dry academia.