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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

kebabking said:
I don't know how the neutrals would pan out - I absolutely see kabbes point, but I think the temptation to play all sides will be overwhelming.

There's also the difference between whats said in public -facts, investigation etc... and what's said in private - we know it was you, have a coup, blame it on deranged Putin and bury him quickly...

China is not a disinterested party here - a defeated, disintegrated Russia leaves any number of central Asian republics in need of a new Good Lord, and if they really fancy it, the Northern Resource Area stretches all the way to the ArcticOcean.
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From what i gather To avoid Russia collapsing into civil war Putins replacement would have to come from the 6 people he still has a daily working relationship with...3 of which are incompetent, and one such an ambitious snake that if he did do the deed it would be expected and Putin avenged
 
gosub said:
From what i gather To avoid Russia collapsing into civil war Putins replacement would have to come from the 6 people he still has a daily working relationship with...3 of which are incompetent, and one such an ambitious snake that if he did do the deed it would be expected and Putin avenged
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They seem to be finding themselves in a similar dearth-of-talent place to the ruling party in the UK... :hmm:
 
two sheds said:
yes sorry the russian tanks
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Military matters are a closed book to me.reading this thread I get the impression that the Russians have now had such a bad scare at the hands of Ukraine the third poorest country in Europe that any day now they might deploy their nuclear arsenal.This may be true for all I know but if it is true why have the Russians not even bothered to any significant extent to win the war from the air.If the aggressor here was the US would they not have begun with a bit of shock and awe,cleared a bit of ground by carpet bombing Ukrainian positions for a week or two before any question of sending in troops arose? As I say l know nothing of these matters but if Putin's object is indeed to overrun the country regardless of loss of Ukrainian lives he seems to me to be going about it in entirely the wrong way.
 
Duncan2 said:
why have the Russians not even bothered to any significant extent to win the war from the air.
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You're not the only one wondering! The Overlooked Reason Russia’s Invasion Is Floundering

Pretty soon the Russians will be even more scared to fly over Ukraine, because Ukraine's getting Nato's finest ground to air missile system, NASAMS.

Edit: I'm guessing that corruption might be a bigger problem in the air force than the army. If a few important bits of a combat aircraft don't work or have gone missing, the aircraft might be completely unable to fly a mission. Whereas if you remove a few important bits from a tank, it can probably still drive towards the enemy. For a while. Corruption in the Russian Armed Forces
 
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two sheds said:
yes sorry the russian tanks
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That may be why so many are left behind. Fuel economy in a tank isn't good - far better (quite apart from the reasons given upthread re attacks) to steal a private car and leg it in that.

ETA: Not to mention that there have been reports of Russian troops changing into civilian clothes before doing a runner. Changing into civvies, then doing a runner in a tank or IFV lacks subtlety, even for Russians :hmm:
 
Duncan2 said:
Military matters are a closed book to me.reading this thread I get the impression that the Russians have now had such a bad scare at the hands of Ukraine the third poorest country in Europe that any day now they might deploy their nuclear arsenal.This may be true for all I know but if it is true why have the Russians not even bothered to any significant extent to win the war from the air.If the aggressor here was the US would they not have begun with a bit of shock and awe,cleared a bit of ground by carpet bombing Ukrainian positions for a week or two before any question of sending in troops arose? As I say l know nothing of these matters but if Putin's object is indeed to overrun the country regardless of loss of Ukrainian lives he seems to me to be going about it in entirely the wrong way.
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Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe in 2020, surprised it's got richer
 
These images of tanks abandoned in rivers and so on, obviously the Russian army fleeing is good news in the bigger picture but I still find the gleeful responses and laughing emoticons that are attached to them in Twitter and elsewhere hard to get along with. and when they are used for "no panic" memes. Seeing all the bits of gear, opened supply boxes and so on scattered about, they are just more horrible, tragic pictures of war. I imagine young terrified guys, literally running for their lives, guys who didn't have any real choice about being sent into a war, with hopeless training and support, no doubt already traumatised, all this the result of actions taken and decisions made by the real bad guys sitting comfortably elsewhere. Who looks at those images and laughs? I'd not hold it against a Ukrainian who's seen their hometown occupied and destroyed. But some external Western observer on twitter? It makes me think they see it all as a game, like the war games i imagine them playing on their computers.
 
Multiple Russian army guys have been prosecuted for refusing to fight or deploy to Ukraine.


There is always a choice, it’s not always a safe choice but the choice exists.
 
teuchter said:
These images of tanks abandoned in rivers and so on, obviously the Russian army fleeing is good news in the bigger picture but I still find the gleeful responses and laughing emoticons that are attached to them in Twitter and elsewhere hard to get along with. and when they are used for "no panic" memes. Seeing all the bits of gear, opened supply boxes and so on scattered about, they are just more horrible, tragic pictures of war. I imagine young terrified guys, literally running for their lives, guys who didn't have any real choice about being sent into a war, with hopeless training and support, no doubt already traumatised, all this the result of actions taken and decisions made by the real bad guys sitting comfortably elsewhere. Who looks at those images and laughs? I'd not hold it against a Ukrainian who's seen their hometown occupied and destroyed. But some external Western observer on twitter? It makes me think they see it all as a game, like the war games i imagine them playing on their computers.
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Made me think of Sorley MacLean's poem after the battle of Ruweisat Ridge:

Death Valley

Some Nazi or other has said that the Fuehrer
had restored to German manhood the
‘right and joy of dying in battle’.

Sitting dead in ‘Death Valley’
below the Ruweisat Ridge,
a boy with his forelock down about his cheek
and his face slate-grey;

I thought of the right and the joy
that he got from his Fuehrer,
of falling in the field of slaughter
to rise no more;

of the pomp and the fame
that he had, not alone,
though he was the most piteous to see
in a valley gone to seed

with flies about grey corpses
on a dun sand
dirty yellow and full of the rubbish
and fragments of battle.

Was the boy of the band
who abused the Jews
and Communists, or of the greater
band of those

led, from the beginning of generations,
unwillingly to the trial
and mad delirium of every war
for the sake of rulers?

Whatever his desire or mishap,
his innocence or malignity,
he showed no pleasure in his death
below the Ruweisat Ridge.
 
David Clapson said:
You're not the only one wondering! The Overlooked Reason Russia’s Invasion Is Floundering

Pretty soon the Russians will be even more scared to fly over Ukraine, because Ukraine's getting Nato's finest ground to air missile system, NASAMS.

Edit: I'm guessing that corruption might be a bigger problem in the air force than the army. If a few important bits of a combat aircraft don't work or have gone missing, the aircraft might be completely unable to fly a mission. Whereas if you remove a few important bits from a tank, it can probably still drive towards the enemy. For a while. Corruption in the Russian Armed Forces
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I know very little about miltary stuff, what surprised me about the Russian attack in February, I didn't hear anything about Russia's version of the HARM missile being used, something that would automatically seek and destory a radar site. Nor was there any reports of Russian aircraft using laser guided bombs (perhaps there were some, if there are, its rarely reported). For a country that likes to see itself as a miltary force equivalent to the USA, Russian fighter aircraft appear to be lacking key weapons.

One of the reason's for Ukrainians success in the north, is the use of HARM missiles to destory Russian air defence systems and systems to protect Ukrainians from Russian aircraft.

 
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Did they run out of ammo for their Shilkas? I'd have thought those are every bit as good as a Gepard. It was the cornerstone of Soviet close-in AA, and rightly feared.

Edit: Seems they have Tunguskas, too. That should be better than a Gepard, really. But again they might be short of ammo for them.

The Russians have been too scared of losing their good aircraft. Even before the West helped out, UA AA wasn't to be scoffed at.
 
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cupid_stunt said:
Story just broken, it's unclear as to the potential for a disaster, and on what scale, all we can do is hope for the best.
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The IAEA update I was waiting for when I last replied to you about this came out - they decided to report on these developments as mostly being a positive, eg:

In addition to the restored 330 kV line, work is under way to bring back other power lines. Reactor unit 6 had been providing power to the ZNPP since the plant was disconnected from the grid on 5 September. But operating a reactor at low power is not a sustainable solution for a longer period because it could over time damage key equipment of the nuclear power plant, such as electricity-producing turbines and pumps.

The ZNPP also has 20 emergency diesel generators available if needed, with supplies for at least 10 days of operation. There was no need to operate the generators during this operational change. Although the Enerhodar thermal power station remains down, the now restored power line provides the ZNPP with power from the Ukrainian grid transported through the station’s switchyard.

As is the case for the five other reactor units, ZNPP operating staff plan to bring unit 6 to a cold shutdown state, which can take about 30 hours. The ZNPP will still need electricity for safety-related functions. However, in this state only power from one diesel generator per reactor is needed to maintain safety.
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Update 100 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA

www.iaea.org www.iaea.org
 
This is by an Estonian intelligence officer who has been retweeted by Vindman

"It is somewhat surprising that Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Kharkiv came as such a surprise to Russia. Ukraine was clearly concentrating a lot of forces in that area. Russia wasn’t able to react to that."
"Another possibility is that Russia really doesn’t have any reserves at all anymore and that would also make sense."
"The directive that Russian forces had was to conquer Donetsk oblast by Sept 15. The only place to draw forces to Kharkiv would have been from there, from around Bakhmut."
"Russia’s defense lines collapsed so astonishingly fast that even the biggest optimists wouldn’t have predicted such rapid advancement into occupied areas."
'Today it appears that Russia’s plan is to retreat from all of Kharkiv oblast. According to the Russian MoD’s map the troops are present only on the eastern side of the Oskol river. It’s questionable if they will be able to stay even there."
"I think that Ukraine would want to conquer at least some areas there as well in order to completely cut off Russia’s logistics from the north."
"Further to the east there are marshes and forests with no towns. There were no battles for these areas in either 2014 or this year because it’s not strategically important. Ukraine wouldn’t try to hastily reclaim those areas."
"If reclaiming them entailed battles, Ukraine wouldn’t see it as a priority. After Kharkiv the priority is the west bank of Dnirpo in Kherson."
"Russian supply lines are already distressed, they can bring only a little with barges. But Russia still has counter-offensive capability in Kherson."
"I am still optimistic that before the winter the western side of Dnipro will be reclaimed. There’s still around two months until real winter kicks in in the southern parts of Ukraine."
"Russians themselves are very concerned about Vuhledar. It’s the easternmost point of the frontline and Ukraine is building up units there. From there it is possible to cut off the Donetsk-Mariupol highway."
"I don't think Russia will keep a lot of troops in Mariupol. Once you get back Mariupol, you can find a place to target Crimea’s bridges from there."
"But the most important development to watch now is what will happen in the Kremlin. Russian elite will start asking, 'What next?'"
"Retreating from Kyiv they might have been able to cover up by talking about stepping up efforts in the east. But you can’t hide the current manoeuvrers with tactics anymore. It’s total defeat."
"We don’t have much info of what’s going on inside Kremlin. But according to the logic of dictatorial rule, the loyalists will start thinking about how to survive themselves if the situation starts getting crap. Disintegration should start."
"But people surrounding Putin are weak-willed and a weak bunch in general (with the exception of Nikolai Patrushev and Sergey Ivanov maybe). The rest of the gang are not people who can influence or change ongoing processes."
"The decision to back out from Kharkiv oblast must have been taken Friday evening at the Security Council. This indicates that Putin wants to share responsibility. The timing of the two events was too close for it to be a coincidence."
"Without the Security Council’s decision it might have taken a few more days. But seeing how the Russian troops were on the run already on Friday, it wouldn’t have been possible to put a stop to it."
"I’m not too worried about Ukraine overextending. They are mentally prepared to keep the fighting going for a long time. I continue to be more worried about some Western countries that can say that we can’t allow Putin to lose face."
"I’m fairly certain that in Paris, Berlin and among some Americans that idea will not disappear. At some stage Russia might offer to back down to Feb 23. borders and then there can be pressure on Ukraine to accept."
"Luckily, however, the public opinion in the U.S. and German won't support such pressure."
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Artaxerxes said:
Multiple Russian army guys have been prosecuted for refusing to fight or deploy to Ukraine.


There is always a choice, it’s not always a safe choice but the choice exists.
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Yes, kind of. But the glee over dead and injured youngsters from people with no connection to Ukraine is unsettling, especially given that plenty of those youngsters are from disadvantaged backgrounds (not even considered "truly Russian" back home). It's great the Russians are being pushed back, but bloody hell.

I've seen some really sadistic suggestions about what should be done with surrendering Russians, and not from Ukrainians.
 
Chz said:
Did they run out of ammo for their Shilkas? I'd have thought those are every bit as good as a Gepard. It was the cornerstone of Soviet close-in AA, and rightly feared.

Edit: Seems they have Tunguskas, too. That should be better than a Gepard, really. But again they might be short of ammo for them.

The Russians have been too scared of losing their good aircraft. Even before the West helped out, UA AA wasn't to be scoffed at.
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TBF I'd be truly amazed if they ran out of those 23mm shells, they must have produced them in nine or ten figure numbers.
 
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