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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Dogsauce said:
One of the reasons the Russian army couldn’t use air and artillery support with this latest attack is that Ukrainian troops broke through quickly and were attacking defences from behind and the flanks, such that they’d be unable to identify friend from foe and end up bombing their own. Tactical nuke would be even worse.

This might also be why they’ve now pulled back forces from Izium etc, does leave it clear for air attacks (and they might not want Ukraine walking off with some of the better hardware they’ve abandoned so that may be targetted).
Click to expand...
This guy is an American soldier (currently serving). Lays out some of the Russian defensive combat tactics.

 
spitfire said:
From multiple telegram and twitter sources it sounds like the UA are making some decent advances in Kharkiv, Balakliya and the Kherson thing last week totally threw the Russians.

Notable POW's so far include a Wagnerite and a Lieutenant Colonel. Won't post pics but they are out there.

You can't park there mate.

Click to expand...

Don't know if this is the same person or another one, but Ukrainian defenders have captured Lt. Col. Artem Helemendyk from 18th Motorized Rifle Division.
Like you said, won't post pics but they're out there.
 
Dogsauce said:
One of the reasons the Russian army couldn’t use air and artillery support with this latest attack is that Ukrainian troops broke through quickly and were attacking defences from behind and the flanks, such that they’d be unable to identify friend from foe and end up bombing their own. Tactical nuke would be even worse.

This might also be why they’ve now pulled back forces from Izium etc, does leave it clear for air attacks (and they might not want Ukraine walking off with some of the better hardware they’ve abandoned so that may be targetted).
Click to expand...

I mean it would if Russian aviation etc had been particularly active at all over recent weeks. Possibly a rationalisation of it though - 'yeah leave it Boris, of course aviation/missiles will wake care of it and any nazis trying to move it'.

This collapse is so... sudden. Places that seemed like it would be a real stretch for UA to retake even this year just dropping.
 
Al Jazeera is basically confirming all the above, their reporter on the ground said 'the Russians are seeing the speed of the Ukrainian's advances and are basically just running away', he also confirmed Russian speaking Telegram channels are in meltdown over what's happening.

* NB you still need to be careful even with AJ, my workaround was to set it to record an hour of news, than fast forward the first 30 fucking minutes of the unmentionable bollocks that are keeping the BBC & Sky busy before actually getting to some real news.
 
co-op said:
Yeah I'm sure U75 posters know loads more about how to deal with the war in Ukraine than the Ukrainian army.
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Was that video shared by the Ukrainian military or an individual serviceman?

If I liberated a village I'd want to share video of it too, I just hope the Ukrainians are very confident about holding onto their gains because the behaviour of the Russians in occupied areas, where people are being murdered or sent to "filtration camps" just for having patriotic tattoos, suggests civilians who were seen welcoming Ukrainian troops and whose addresses can easily be found will definitely face reprisals if Russia retakes the area.
 
I still wouldn't discount the use of a tac nuke - I'm absolutely certain that the use of it would be Putin's decision, not something delegated to a Theatre commander, and that it would be at least as much a strategic/political target as a tactical one.

I think he's going to be desperate. We've already started seeing opposition to him form - a city council voted to demand his arrest for treason, there's talk of another one, and of this stuff is being sporadically heard in public, then it's going to be rife in private.

Collapse is far scarier than a grinding defeat - it's psychological shock, and of course these fuckwits have been loudly telling each other that NATO is on a hair trigger to drive to Moscow in steal the Motherlands' stocks of cabbage soup and Ladas... Putin knows that if he falls, he'll end his life against a wall in a basement while staring in a grainy home video.

The question really is whether (when?) there's a coup against him composed of his senior commanders, or whether it's a lower level initiative against him and his senior commanders.
 
kebabking said:
I still wouldn't discount the use of a tac nuke - I'm absolutely certain that the use of it would be Putin's decision, not something delegated to a Theatre commander, and that it would be at least as much a strategic/political target as a tactical one.

I think he's going to be desperate. We've already started seeing opposition to him form - a city council voted to demand his arrest for treason, there's talk of another one, and of this stuff is being sporadically heard in public, then it's going to be rife in private.

Collapse is far scarier than a grinding defeat - it's psychological shock, and of course these fuckwits have been loudly telling each other that NATO is on a hair trigger to drive to Moscow in steal the Motherlands' stocks of cabbage soup and Ladas... Putin knows that if he falls, he'll end his life against a wall in a basement while staring in a grainy home video.

The question really is whether (when?) there's a coup against him composed of his senior commanders, or whether it's a lower level initiative against him and his senior commanders.
Click to expand...

Scary. What do you think NATOs response would be to a tactical nuke? Would we respond. Is this a start of where the wind blows? Or massive conventional strikes against Russia. I can't see any good outcome if it happens.
 
#NAFO expansion is non-negotiable.

This is an interesting article. Sort of rounds everything up that we’ve been talking about here.

samf.substack.com

Gradually, then Suddenly

The Ukrainian flag is raised again in Kupyansk “How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises. As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout. A supposedly resilient and...
samf.substack.com samf.substack.com
 
Yossarian said:
Was that video shared by the Ukrainian military or an individual serviceman?

If I liberated a village I'd want to share video of it too, I just hope the Ukrainians are very confident about holding onto their gains because the behaviour of the Russians in occupied areas, where people are being murdered or sent to "filtration camps" just for having patriotic tattoos, suggests civilians who were seen welcoming Ukrainian troops and whose addresses can easily be found will definitely face reprisals if Russia retakes the area.
Click to expand...

You're right of course but the information control from all of the Ukrainian fronts has been almost total, this whole concept of an 'information space' has been as critical to the war as the physical stuff. I don't think anything much is getting posted up by anyone without clearance. But who knows?
 
kebabking said:
I still wouldn't discount the use of a tac nuke - I'm absolutely certain that the use of it would be Putin's decision, not something delegated to a Theatre commander, and that it would be at least as much a strategic/political target as a tactical one.

I think he's going to be desperate. We've already started seeing opposition to him form - a city council voted to demand his arrest for treason, there's talk of another one, and of this stuff is being sporadically heard in public, then it's going to be rife in private.

Collapse is far scarier than a grinding defeat - it's psychological shock, and of course these fuckwits have been loudly telling each other that NATO is on a hair trigger to drive to Moscow in steal the Motherlands' stocks of cabbage soup and Ladas... Putin knows that if he falls, he'll end his life against a wall in a basement while staring in a grainy home video.

The question really is whether (when?) there's a coup against him composed of his senior commanders, or whether it's a lower level initiative against him and his senior commanders.
Click to expand...

I have been awaiting waking up one morning and finding something has just been sunshined since the start of all this. Like at one point I expected Kiev to be nuked in a fit of pique with how fucking incompetent The Column had been and the Russians running away.

What happens after that I don't know but I can't imagine things getting better.
 
kebabking said:
I still wouldn't discount the use of a tac nuke - I'm absolutely certain that the use of it would be Putin's decision, not something delegated to a Theatre commander, and that it would be at least as much a strategic/political target as a tactical one.
Click to expand...
Whenever I think about this, I wonder what reasons for not doing it (assuming everything had gone, as it looks like it is, to complete ratshit).

And I can't think of many. Russian propaganda positions themselves very much, in world terms, as Millwall football club positions itself, and I really can't see Putin being too bothered about Western opprobium - far from it, he'd probably be happy to "own the libs" and characterise a decision to go nuclear as the act of a strongman, not the last throw of the dice of a discredited and defeated leader.

He's probably also trading on the - realistic - possibility that NATO, faced with the use of a tactical nuke on (probably) Ukrainian soil, might dither somewhat about a nuclear escalation per Article 5. And every time I think about it, the obvious target on Ukrainian soil has to be Kyiv.

I really hope I'm wrong.

kebabking said:
I think he's going to be desperate. We've already started seeing opposition to him form - a city council voted to demand his arrest for treason, there's talk of another one, and of this stuff is being sporadically heard in public, then it's going to be rife in private.

Collapse is far scarier than a grinding defeat - it's psychological shock, and of course these fuckwits have been loudly telling each other that NATO is on a hair trigger to drive to Moscow in steal the Motherlands' stocks of cabbage soup and Ladas... Putin knows that if he falls, he'll end his life against a wall in a basement while staring in a grainy home video.

The question really is whether (when?) there's a coup against him composed of his senior commanders, or whether it's a lower level initiative against him and his senior commanders.
Click to expand...
We can but hope...
 
existentialist said:
Whenever I think about this, I wonder what reasons for not doing it (assuming everything had gone, as it looks like it is, to complete ratshit).

And I can't think of many. Russian propaganda positions themselves very much, in world terms, as Millwall football club positions itself, and I really can't see Putin being too bothered about Western opprobium - far from it, he'd probably be happy to "own the libs" and characterise a decision to go nuclear as the act of a strongman, not the last throw of the dice of a discredited and defeated leader.

He's probably also trading on the - realistic - possibility that NATO, faced with the use of a tactical nuke on (probably) Ukrainian soil, might dither somewhat about a nuclear escalation per Article 5. And every time I think about it, the obvious target on Ukrainian soil has to be Kyiv.

I really hope I'm wrong.


We can but hope...
Click to expand...

My only hope is that if he gives the order, someone close to him, with an eye on the future will decide that their future may well be brighter without him.
 
UnderAnOpenSky said:
Scary. What do you think NATOs response would be to a tactical nuke? Would we respond. Is this a start of where the wind blows? Or massive conventional strikes against Russia. I can't see any good outcome if it happens.
Click to expand...

I don't know what we'd do...

We (and 'we' means the West, from Japan to Finland) absolutely would respond, I just don't know, and even I knew the thinking, it would depend on so many variables as to be almost useless information.

I think the response would be different depending on was happened - if the Sovs use a 1kt nuke to destroy a river crossing the response would be one thing, if they used a 20kt nuke to destroy Kyiv the response would be very much another.

Personalities matter. Trump: no idea, but Biden just ordered every single US flag on every federal and US military installation and ship to be dropped to half mast for 2 weeks to mark HMQEII's death. How he might respond to 500,000 Ukrainians being slaughtered is something that Russians might not want to find out...
 
UnderAnOpenSky said:
Scary. What do you think NATOs response would be to a tactical nuke? Would we respond. Is this a start of where the wind blows? Or massive conventional strikes against Russia. I can't see any good outcome if it happens.
Click to expand...
My guess is that they will dither. It would be typical of Russia to do such a thing and then deny it, with lots of smoke blown, in an attempt to sow division between NATO nations. And, in any event, I wouldn't expect a single tactical nuclear weapon would mean an inevitable escalation to a MAD-style nuclear exchange - more likely would be that NATO would want to move its troops forward into Ukraine "for security", and perhaps "dare" Russia to repeat the use of nukes.

But the other thing we have to wonder is what state the Russian nuclear arsenal is in. The opportunities, over the decades, for corruption to hollow out such a high-value resource, especially if they believed it would never be used (and they'd never be found out), are legion, and the temptation far too great. Nukes need ongoing maintenance, both in terms of the delivery system, and the bombs themselves. If Russia can't make sure its tanks/trucks/personnel are adequately resourced, why would anyone think that the nuclear weaponry would be treated any better?
 
existentialist said:
I knew vaguely who they were, but that was an amusing read - I hadn't realised just how much NAFO was punching above its weight. And the Ukrainians seem to like it:

View attachment 342118
:D
Click to expand...

I’m in their Discord sever (basically a chat room m’lud) and it is impressive to see the amount of work they put into it. Genuinely international and mostly fairly liberal in their views. Just really pissed off at what Russia has been doing.

There’s no right wing lunatics and anyone showing prejudice toward any form of minority is ruthlessly dispatched. An exception to this rule is made for Russian soldiers…
 
spitfire said:
I’m in their Discord sever (basically a chat room m’lud) and it is impressive to see the amount of work they put into it. Genuinely international and mostly fairly liberal in their views. Just really pissed off at what Russia has been doing.

There’s no right wing lunatics and anyone showing prejudice toward any form of minority is ruthlessly dispatched. An exception to this rule is made for Russian soldiers…
Click to expand...
Yep, joined that too. Which is probably partly why I'm perplexed :D. It's like a whole enormous subculture, with one purpose...just sitting there laughing at Russians.
 
To be clear, if Putin used a nuke, it wouldn’t just be the west that would respond, one way or other. Other powers that have remained basically neutral, like China and India, could not afford to see the doctrine against first strike be casually flouted. The principle is too important. Russia would thus become a pariah and legitimate target for everyone.
 
spitfire said:
There’s no right wing lunatics and anyone showing prejudice toward any form of minority is ruthlessly dispatched. An exception to this rule is made for Russian soldiers…
Click to expand...
I was going to say that Russian soldiers are not really a minority, but their numbers have been dropping steadily since February, so much so, that I think they probably fit the definition now :D
 
kebabking said:
I don't know what we'd do...

We (and 'we' means the West, from Japan to Finland) absolutely would respond, I just don't know, and even I knew the thinking, it would depend on so many variables as to be almost useless information.

I think the response would be different depending on was happened - if the Sovs use a 1kt nuke to destroy a river crossing the response would be one thing, if they used a 20kt nuke to destroy Kyiv the response would be very much another.

Personalities matter. Trump: no idea, but Biden just ordered every single US flag on every federal and US military installation and ship to be dropped to half mast for 2 weeks to mark HMQEII's death. How he might respond to 500,000 Ukrainians being slaughtered is something that Russians might not want to find out...
Click to expand...

Is likely that these scenario's have been planned out and war gamed in case such a thing happens?

existentialist said:
My guess is that they will dither. It would be typical of Russia to do such a thing and then deny it, with lots of smoke blown, in an attempt to sow division between NATO nations. And, in any event, I wouldn't expect a single tactical nuclear weapon would mean an inevitable escalation to a MAD-style nuclear exchange - more likely would be that NATO would want to move its troops forward into Ukraine "for security", and perhaps "dare" Russia to repeat the use of nukes.

But the other thing we have to wonder is what state the Russian nuclear arsenal is in. The opportunities, over the decades, for corruption to hollow out such a high-value resource, especially if they believed it would never be used (and they'd never be found out), are legion, and the temptation far too great. Nukes need ongoing maintenance, both in terms of the delivery system, and the bombs themselves. If Russia can't make sure its tanks/trucks/personnel are adequately resourced, why would anyone think that the nuclear weaponry would be treated any better?
Click to expand...

I totally get your point, but I'd surprised if they didn't have a good number that weren't in good condition and ready to go, even if many are crumbling.
 
kabbes said:
To be clear, if Putin used a nuke, it wouldn’t just be the west that would respond, one way or other. Other powers that have remained basically neutral, like China and India, could not afford to see the doctrine against first strike be casually flouted. The principle is too important. Russia would thus become a pariah and legitimate target for everyone.
Click to expand...
You know, I'm not convinced this is true.
If they did use a nuke they would dent it and claim it was the Ukranians themselves or the US. Everyone would know it was bullshit but I think lots of countries and politicians would use it as an excuse to stay "neutral". And not just the likes of China I'm thinking of Hungary and some of the right in the US.

Hope we don't find out.
 
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