Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Cid]

Was wondering if they'd hit a large military base in Ukraine more than the front line. But yeah hopefully not, although does feel like they're going to be getting desperate.

Yeah, see what you mean... Still suspect it's too much for too little. Obviously I know precisely shit all about UA deployments, but I get the impression that everything is significantly more dispersed after E.g that major strike on a training complex early in the conflict.

 

[spitfire]

We can only hope that they can keep this up.

Keeping it up is one thing. Holding it is another.

However I have a sneaking suspicion the UA top brass may have considered this aspect.

Hopefully the men and women at the front don’t overstretch their objectives and leave themselves hanging.

 

[bcuster]

 

[teqniq]

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Do we think there is any true that Wagner Group are shooting retreating Russians?

"Ukrainian Army advanced 50 kilometers in a breakthrough in the northern front east of the city of Kharkiv on Thursday, September 8th, liberating more territories in one day that Russian Army had captured in the three months of summer.

The Russian troops report the situation as follows. The Russians were preparing to attack, there were cucumbers [new recruits with minimum training used as cannon fodder] were positioned on the front line.

Behind them stood Wagner Group mercs who work as barrier troops, and further afield paratroopers, the only professional contingent in the area. Ukrainians on American armored personnel carriers barrelled at high speed directly into the positions of cucumbers.

Terrified cucumbers turned around and ran. PMC Wagner troops started shooting at them, killing and wounding dozens, to force them back to the front line. Cucumbers began to shoot back at Wagner mercs choosing to die in a “friendly” fire."

Will Ukraine win the Battle of Kharkiv?

Misha Firer's answer: Russian tax payers’ money had floated on super yachts in the Mediterranean Sea and now drowning in the rivers of Ukraine. Ukrainian Army advanced 50 kilometers in a breakthrough in the northern front east of the city of Kharkiv on Thursday, September 8th, liberating more te...

www.quora.com

 

[SpookyFrank]

I think that her point is simply, “Fuck Russia”

If there is anything more subtle, it is, “Don’t blame us for this. We’re not the ones fucking things up. Fuck Russia.”

Seems pretty fair.

 

[bcuster]

Spoiler: People getting killed to a comedy soundtrack

Ed: I've added a spoiler for what I hope are obvious reasons

 

[Kaka Tim]

game changing? Ukraines information management has been brilliant. Expectation management about grinding away in the south and dont expect any swift victorys and now "boom!" - proper blitzkrieg style lightning strike - and greeted by the tearful, heartfelt gratitude of liberated people. Seems almost too good to be true.

 

[TopCat]

‘Nothing is decided’: EU energy ministers clash over price cap on Russian gas

Countries that import large volumes fear Kremlin would respond by halting all gas flows, plunging them into recession

www.theguardian.com

 

[Dystopiary]

Mrs Zelenska's riposte to Roger Waters telling her to stop the war:


Of course, he'd won't do that. Tankies and Kremlin appeasers approve.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Apparently a video from a couple of years ago.

 

[elbows]

Jeez

Ukraine claws back some territory; nuclear plant in peril

Ukrainian forces are claiming new success in their counteroffensive against Russian forces in the east, taking control of a sizeable village and pushing toward an important transport junction.

apnews.com

The situation is even worse than that article describes. I will link directly to IAEA articles in a moment, but first a brief recap.

Previously to this last week, we have gradually seen all the main power line connections to the broader grid becoming disabled. I didnt shout too loudly about this because there were also some other power lines that connected the nuclear plant to a local thermal power plant.

However in the last week we've seen those lines go out of service too. The remaining active reactor is now their source of power, but without any sign of any of the power lines being able to be fixed, it becomes more likely that they will decide to switch off that reactor too, leaving diesel generators as the only available power source.

Here is an IAEA update from September 7th which details much of that apart from some of my last sentence above, since at the time they were still hoping to fix one of those links to the thermal power station: Update 99 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA

Since then some further bad shit has happened which that AP news article did not really manage to cover in full. Here is a link to the IAEA statement of September 9th which describes the latest issues, and I will quote from it at length:

Director General’s Statement on Serious Situation at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant | IAEA

Statement by IAEA Director General, Rafael Mariano Grossi about the serious situation that developed last night at Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant.

www.iaea.org

The power infrastructure feeding the city of Enerhodar, home to the NPP’s operators and their families, has been destroyed by shelling of the switchyard at the city’s thermal power plant, leading to a complete power black-out in Enerhodar: no running water, no power, no sewage.

Given the increased and continued shelling, there is little likelihood of re-establishing reliable offsite power to the ZNPP, especially as the shelling continually and repeatedly damages the power infrastructure.

As a result, the IAEA understands that the operator, having no longer confidence in the restoration of offsite power, is considering shutting down the only remaining operating reactor. The entire power plant would then be fully reliant on emergency diesel generators for ensuring vital nuclear safety and security functions. And as a consequence, the operator would not be able to re-start the reactors unless offsite power was reliably re-established.

Furthermore, there are indications that, with the increasingly dire circumstances that the people of Energodar are facing, there is the significant risk of an impact on the availability of essential staff on site to continue to safely and securely operate ZNPP.

The BBC did cover the above in an article but it didnt get the top headline attention it normally would due to the queens death:

Ukraine war: UN says blackout threatens Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

The head of the UN nuclear agency says the situation at a Russian-held nuclear plant cannot continue.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[strung out]

Still to be confirmed with visuals, but Russian sources claiming that Izyum has fallen now. That was their main control hub supplying the northern Donbas front.

 

[spitfire]

Still to be confirmed with visuals, but Russian sources claiming that Izyum has fallen now. That was their main control hub supplying the northern Donbas front.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There's also this from someone involved with Bellingcat.

 

[Yossarian]

You love to see it.

It's a joyful sight indeed but for fuck's sake, maybe Ukrainian forces should be told that footage of people greeting their liberators outside their easily identifiable homes in a contested area in a war zone is something that shouldn't be shared online until there is zero risk of the invaders retaking the area and carrying out reprisals.

 

[spitfire]

Looks like things are progressing in Kherson as well.

 

[co-op]

It's a joyful sight indeed but for fuck's sake, maybe Ukrainian forces should be told that footage of people greeting their liberators outside their easily identifiable homes in a contested area in a war zone is something that shouldn't be shared online until there is zero risk of the invaders retaking the area and carrying out reprisals.

Yeah I'm sure U75 posters know loads more about how to deal with the war in Ukraine than the Ukrainian army.

 

[Dogsauce]

Probably. They're good for large buildups of troops, bases, heavily fortified positions etc... Whereas this is a very fast moving, very unpredictable phase of the conflict. So they'd effectively be breaking a huge red line both for the west, and for their not-really-allies, potentially for no real gain.

One of the reasons the Russian army couldn’t use air and artillery support with this latest attack is that Ukrainian troops broke through quickly and were attacking defences from behind and the flanks, such that they’d be unable to identify friend from foe and end up bombing their own. Tactical nuke would be even worse.

This might also be why they’ve now pulled back forces from Izium etc, does leave it clear for air attacks (and they might not want Ukraine walking off with some of the better hardware they’ve abandoned so that may be targetted).

 

[existentialist]

I'm quietly impressed at the number of Ukrainian flags that have suddenly popped up in the previously occupied zones. Keeping a flag tucked away under occupation was, I imagine, quite a risk, given the way Russians have been treating those under their heel.

And does every Ukrainian soldier carry one, so they can quickly run it up the flagpoles of the towns they've just recaptured?

 

[Dogsauce]

Apparently a video from a couple of years ago.

It’s also Ukrainian, not Russian, and from a training exercise!

 

[Dogsauce]

I'm quietly impressed at the number of Ukrainian flags that have suddenly popped up in the previously occupied zones. Keeping a flag tucked away under occupation was, I imagine, quite a risk, given the way Russians have been treating those under their heel.

And does every Ukrainian soldier carry one, so they can quickly run it up the flagpoles of the towns they've just recaptured?

It seems that Ukrainian forces are carrying a decent amount of flags, plus cans of blue and yellow spray paint, and white paint for re-marking captured vehicles. Essential kit.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Looks like a full on collapse of Russian forces in the North East. Your war is done vlad. Kherson next? Then crimea is suddenly vulnerable.

 

[spitfire]

Saw an unconfirmed claim that RU left 60 (!) tanks behind in Izyum, also reports of battles in Lysychanks and Donetsk airport. Something happening in Mariupol too.

Should probably be in unconfirmed/speculation thread but it's all moving so fast that it's the best we'll get for now.

 

[spitfire]

Those cheeky scamps.

 

[tim]

Spoiler: People getting killed to a comedy soundtrack

Ed: I've added a spoiler for what I hope are obvious reasons

Why even bother posting it if it is what you say it is.

 

[spitfire]

Reposting this from earlier in the thread for the armchair generals.

Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...

liveuamap.com

 

[agricola]

Looks like a full on collapse of Russian forces in the North East. Your war is done vlad. Kherson next? Then crimea is suddenly vulnerable.

Who knows - if what is being reported is what is happening, it will perhaps be interesting to see whether this collapse extends into the DPR / LPR. The core aims of the special operation were to "protect" the two republics, so in a sense they could argue that the rest don't matter (indeed Putin said last week that they weren't looking to annex any part of Ukraine*) and the mission was accomplished, but losing what has been gained in Donetsk and Luhansk would not be a success.

I really can't see them (Ukraine) going into Crimea though, even if this is an absolute collapse - the republics are one thing, but Russia annexed Crimea and an invasion would presumably result in a horrific escalation.

* the usual provisos apply

 

[Kaka Tim]

Who knows - if what is being reported is what is happening, it will perhaps be interesting to see whether this collapse extends into the DPR / LPR. The core aims of the special operation were to "protect" the two republics, so in a sense they could argue that the rest don't matter (indeed Putin said last week that they weren't looking to annex any part of Ukraine*) and the mission was accomplished, but losing what has been gained in Donetsk and Luhansk would not be a success.

I really can't see them (Ukraine) going into Crimea though, even if this is an absolute collapse - the republics are one thing, but Russia annexed Crimea and an invasion would presumably result in a horrific escalation.

* the usual provisos apply

Bargening chip through

 

[co-op]

Who knows - if what is being reported is what is happening, it will perhaps be interesting to see whether this collapse extends into the DPR / LPR. The core aims of the special operation were to "protect" the two republics, so in a sense they could argue that the rest don't matter (indeed Putin said last week that they weren't looking to annex any part of Ukraine*) and the mission was accomplished, but losing what has been gained in Donetsk and Luhansk would not be a success.

According to twitter Ukrainian troops are already in Luhansk Oblast, "outskirts of Lysychansk" - it looks a lot like the collapse might be total.