Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[two sheds]

You'd think they'd be tempted to find out where Putin is and see if they can do a conventional strike there.

 

[kabbes]

You know, I'm not convinced this is true.
If they did use a nuke they would dent it and claim it was the Ukranians themselves or the US. Everyone would know it was bullshit but I think lots of countries and politicians would use it as an excuse to stay "neutral". And not just the likes of China I'm thinking of Hungary and some of the right in the US.

Hope we don't find out.

No. The idea that countries simply can’t use nukes is too important for that kind of game playing. China, India, Pakistan — all would view it as an enormous threat to their existence.

 

[emanymton]

No. The idea that countries simply can’t use nukes is too important for that kind of game playing. China, India, Pakistan — all would view it as an enormous threat to their existence.

Hopefully, but I don't know if that is really true anymore. The word seems a crazier place than it used to be.

 

[frogwoman]

China would definitely get anxious if countries with unstable leaderships on its borders started randomly letting off nukes.

 

[Dystopiary]

Proper brought tears to my eyes that has. They're good lads. Thanks for posting though.
RIP dear Yuriy.

 

[kebabking]

I don't know how the neutrals would pan out - I absolutely see kabbes point, but I think the temptation to play all sides will be overwhelming.

There's also the difference between whats said in public -facts, investigation etc... and what's said in private - we know it was you, have a coup, blame it on deranged Putin and bury him quickly...

China is not a disinterested party here - a defeated, disintegrated Russia leaves any number of central Asian republics in need of a new Good Lord, and if they really fancy it, the Northern Resource Area stretches all the way to the ArcticOcean.

 

[ohmyliver]

There's presumably also the Russian fear that any tactical nukes wouldn't actually work due to corruption.

 

[Dystopiary]

Denis Pushilin, head of Donbas occupation, made an address from a moving car.
Sorry, I haven't worked out how to embed a video straight from twitter.



The poster then added:

 

[spitfire]

Denis Pushilin, head of Donbas occupation, made an address from a moving car.
Sorry, I haven't worked out how to embed a video straight from twitter.



The poster then added:

View attachment 342142

 

[spitfire]

Hmm.

 

[David Clapson]

I doubt Putin could find anyone to shoot a nuke for him. If you were a colonel in charge of a missile unit, you'd be better off sabotaging it in the long run.

 

[frogwoman]

 

[frogwoman]

Deputies in St. Petersburg suggest State Duma charge Putin with high treason

Municipal deputies for the Smolninskoye District in St

theins.ru

Russian hawks on the city council propose to charge Putin with Treason.

 

[frogwoman]

Fucking hell unconfirmed rumours that Ukrainian soldiers are in Donetsk airport.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Putin:"We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will fall down"
Putins house falls down

 

[DaveCinzano]

Fucking hell unconfirmed rumours that Ukrainian soldiers are in Donetsk airport.

Hence it being on the spec thread more than 2 hours ago

Ukraine: Unsubstantiated rumours and speculation

I have no way of confirming this so in this thread it goes! :hmm: Sept 11th, I've got an exam about then. :(

www.urban75.net

 

[David Clapson]

Guardian has a new bit

Ukraine’s southern offensive ‘was designed to trick Russia’

Exclusive: Russian forces wrong-footed by attack in Kharkiv region after preparing for offensive in the south

www.theguardian.com

Edit: In the light of the disinformation campaign it's worth having another look at Vindman's curious performance 10 days ago on the news

 

[eatmorecheese]

Ukraine have, as far as I can see, outclassed Russia in intelligence and information warfare at every turn. Media, cyber, etc.

I've not felt this hopeful for a while. Curiously, I think this also means greater risks of curveballs as Russian command and control, intelligence and communication becomes fractured, which is worrying. They get desperate and the risk increases (massacres, nuclear options...)

That said, I know absolutely nothing and take refuge in my ignorance. I just want the war to end.

 

[existentialist]

There's presumably also the Russian fear that any tactical nukes wouldn't actually work due to corruption.

That's got a few layers to it, though. FIrst of all, it's not likely that the hierarchy will be in full possession of all the facts, nor much able to find them out - the layers of corruption will go all the way down. And then there's the question, coming back up, of "what do you tell the boss?". Chances are, some kind of state of satisfactory nuclear readiness is being signalled all the way from the bottom, and it might not be until someone actually presses the Big Red Switch that the truth will become known. Autocratic states don't tend to encourage frankness, or people stepping out of line, and if "in line" has meant - as it appears to - "sucking up the rampant and pervasive corruption", lots of people are going to feel like it's better just to keep their heads down and hope that, if the truth every comes out, they're not in a position to suffer too much for it, or at least care much about it anyway.

Worst-case scenario for Russia: loaded nuclear missiles fail at launch, blow up in the silos, and irradiate great chunks of Mother Russia. Or, I suppose, launch, but then either don't end up where they're supposed to be, just end up being a big "dirty bomb", or a fizzle.

 

[David Clapson]

New York Times has a lovely piece about the grief Putin is getting at home archive.ph He is so fucked. And Ukraine still has much, much more of the best American kit in the pipeline. Maybe they should advance on Moscow...

 

[tommers]

Yeah, that usually goes well.

 

[two sheds]

Not as far to go as from France or Germany though

 

[kebabking]

Third time lucky?

 

[existentialist]

Urban meetup, anyone?

 

[Dystopiary]

Yep, joined that too. Which is probably partly why I'm perplexed . It's like a whole enormous subculture, with one purpose...just sitting there laughing at Russians.

They're countering disinfo plus raising money too.

 

[spitfire]

Urban meetup, anyone?

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[cupid_stunt]

Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant shuts down
Operations at the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine have fully halted, Energoatom, the state agency in charge of the plant, said on Sunday.

The agency said the restoration of power to the plant had allowed it to do the safest thing and power down its sixth and last working reactor.

Kyiv on Wednesday called for residents of Russian-occupied areas around the plant, Europe’s largest, to evacuate for their own safety. Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of shelling the nuclear plant, risking a nuclear disaster. LINK

Story just broken, it's unclear as to the potential for a disaster, and on what scale, all we can do is hope for the best.

ETA - This makes grim reading -

Russians killed two Zaporizhzhia nuclear staff, abused others: Ukraine

Russian forces controlling Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have killed two staff at the facility and detained and abused dozens of others, the head of Ukraine's nuclear energy agency told…

www.france24.com

 

[Flavour]

Those talking of tac nukes - don't think so. But the zaporizhia situation is now precarious that a very simple conventional strike on it would create a nuclear disaster. Can see this happening. It may meltdown even without need for any more bombing.

 

[elbows]

Story just broken, it's unclear as to the potential for a disaster, and on what scale, all we can do is hope for the best.

ETA - This makes grim reading -

At least there was one bit of good news in that story about them shutting the last reactor down, that they got one of the power lines working, a possibility that they were not at all confident about in the previous update.

I await another IAEA update on these developments. If taken at face value, the situation is now one where both that power line and the diesel backup will need to go down in order for a disaster to unfold.

But obviously the situation with staffing has deteriorated due to the increased intensity of fighting in the region, and the story the other day about power being lost in the town where the staff live, a story which did not receive enough attention at all.

 

[David Clapson]

Further to my post above about the disinformation campaign Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022, do we think Vindman knew he was putting disinformation on CNN, or did he do it unknowingly? I think he knew it was bullshit. It's pretty awesome. It's going to make a great film!