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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Ok. Have you read it?

(It's supplementary to what I posted above, and also entirely about passenger transit.)

I read it a long time ago, yes. Not sure why you're picking this hill to die on when you just started googling a few hours ago, by your own admission. In fact this treaty was drafted in 2002 before Lithuania was in the EU, and is now superseded by EU regulations. However, your original claim that no treaty existed because you couldn;t find anything after a brief google was nonsense.

The regulations you are looking for are covered by the EU Common Transit procedure (strongly recommended for insomniancs).

Your point seems to be that there is no specific treaty between Russia and Lithuania (and now, the EU, as Lithuania does not have separate bilateral treaties with Russia an an EU member) governing the transit of rail cargo using Lithuanian railways to Kaliningrad, and that therefore any Russian escalation would have no basis.

The Russians think otherwise, which is kind of what matters here.

This article helps further

It is disingenouous for Russians to scream about a blockade- land and rail traffic is not stopped, only that freight which is under EU sanctions. Passengers and non sanctioned freight are not affected.

If they still really want to move coal / steel / other sanctioned goods then they still can, by sea.

However with Nikolai Patrushev all of a sudden visiting Kaliningrad to "discuss security issues in the north west of the federation" and with dark statements being uttered by any senior government official who gets the chance to pass a microphone then I think we are right to see this as a real escalatory flashpoint with unpredictable consequences. We'll see what happens in the next 7-10 days. The good news is that the governor of Kaliningrad is on record as saying he expects the standoff to be resolved diplomatically.

Edited to add: below the text of Borrell's response in his press conference yesterday. The EU will have greenlit this before Lithuania announced it.

Screenshot 2022-06-21 at 17.04.47.png
 
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I read it a long time ago, yes. Not sure why you're picking this hill to die on when you just started googling a few hours ago, by your own admission. In fact this treaty was drafted in 2002 before Lithuania was in the EU, and is now superseded by EU regulations. However, your original claim that no treaty existed because you couldn;t find anything after a brief google was nonsense.

Your point seems to be that there is no specific treaty between Russia and Lithuania (and now, the EU, as Lithuania does not have separate bilateral treaties with Russia an an EU member) governing the transit of rail cargo using Lithuanian railways to Kaliningrad, and that therefore any Russian escalation would have no basis.

The Russians think otherwise, which is kind of what matters here.

This article helps further

It is disingenouous for Russians to scream about a blockade- land and rail traffic is not stopped, only that freight which is under EU sanctions. Passengers and non sanctioned freight are not affected.

If they still really want to move coal / steel / other sanctioned goods then they still can, by sea.

However with Nikolai Patrushev all of a sudden visiting Kaliningrad to "discuss security issues in the north west of the federation" and with dark statements being uttered by any senior government official who gets the chance to pass a microphone then I think we are right to see this as a real escalatory flashpoint with unpredictable consequences. We'll see what happens in the next 7-10 days. The good news is that the governor of Kaliningrad is on record as saying he expects the standoff to be resolved diplomatically.

Another big problem is, I think, the lack of coordination between EU states over foreign policy measures like this - it affects them all, and yet it seems Lithuania (possibly even just Lithuanian State Railways (!)) just went and did this after making some form of query about sanctions with the EC. The volatility of the situation demands competent oversight at the level of the EU, at least for EU-level treaties or things that would affect the stability of the bloc.
 
Not sure why you're picking this hill to die on when you just started googling a few hours ago, by your own admission.
There's no hill, and no-one is going to die. At least not on the thread. I just made a couple of short posts pointing out what ought to be obvious: if Russia is saying one thing and Lithuania is saying an opposite thing, the chances are a lot better than even that it is Russia that is full of shit. That does indeed appear to be the case here.
 
It's the Commission providing the oversight presumably guided by the wee bald men with round spectacles who drafted the Common Transit policy.

When it was drafted I guess no one really saw Lithuania being pressured as a result of Russia invading Ukraine.
 
Another big problem is, I think, the lack of coordination between EU states over foreign policy measures like this - it affects them all, and yet it seems Lithuania (possibly even just Lithuanian State Railways (!)) just went and did this after making some form of query about sanctions with the EC. The volatility of the situation demands competent oversight at the level of the EU, at least for EU-level treaties or things that would affect the stability of the bloc.

Wouldn't it just be easier to write this needs the steadying hand of Sholtz to keep those uppity, excitable Easterners in line, and then the sooner we can go back to having EU policy decided by sensible German industrialists who will concentrate on cheap Russian gas and flogging BMW's to Russian gangsters, rather than silly stuff about 'not being invaded by countries that have oppressed your very existence for centuries'...

If you think Lithuania has done this without consulting the other Baltic and Eastern states, and indeed the EU - but probably not Germany - then you've not been watching internal EU politics for the last 6 months.
 
Wouldn't it just be easier to write this needs the steadying hand of Sholtz to keep those uppity, excitable Easterners in line, and then the sooner we can go back to having EU policy decided by sensible German industrialists who will concentrate on cheap Russian gas and flogging BMW's to Russian gangsters, rather than silly stuff about 'not being invaded by countries that have oppressed your very existence for centuries'...

If you think Lithuania has done this without consulting the other Baltic and Eastern states, and indeed the EU - but probably not Germany - then you've not been watching internal EU politics for the last 6 months.

Not really - when a state (and all member states) rely on other members of a bloc (or an alliance too, in this case) for its security against a bigger (much bigger, in this case) adversary and that state is acting in contravention of (or at least against the spirit of) a deal between that bloc and the adversary, it should be incumbent on the state to at least consult with all the rest of the bloc about actions which it takes like this.

It does, after all, affect everyone (including Germany) and more importantly any us-and-them now invites a similar response in return when its Article 5 time. That internal EU politics is like this is precisely the problem I was on about.
 
In what seems now to be amazing foresight, Kaliningrad was once offered to the Lithuanian SSR in the 50s by Khrushchev and Lithuania refused on the basis of not thinking it a great idea to incorporate a state of ethnic Russian speakers. Not to mention Russia sent quite a number of their least desirable citizens there after the war.
It's actually Konigsberg isn't it - the ancient capital of East Prussia and one of the most historic cities of Germany. It was never Russian, had no Russian speaking population before 1945 and only became 'Russian' due to brutal ethnic cleansing after 1945. If Putin and the Russian elite have a bee in their bonnet about the historical status of Ukraine, perhaps we should respond and start calling this city by its real name?
 
It's actually Konigsberg isn't it - the ancient capital of East Prussia and one of the most historic cities of Germany. It was never Russian, had no Russian speaking population before 1945 and only became 'Russian' due to brutal ethnic cleansing after 1945. If Putin and the Russian elite have a bee in their bonnet about the historical status of Ukraine, perhaps we should respond and start calling this city by its real name?

Hitler may just have had something to fo with the city’s name change.

Not sure advocating a policy that only men with little moustaches and leather shorts take seriously will help very much to be honest.

“Königsberg” no longer exists.
 
It's actually Konigsberg isn't it - the ancient capital of East Prussia and one of the most historic cities of Germany. It was never Russian, had no Russian speaking population before 1945 and only became 'Russian' due to brutal ethnic cleansing after 1945. If Putin and the Russian elite have a bee in their bonnet about the historical status of Ukraine, perhaps we should respond and start calling this city by its real name?

An amusing wind-up perhaps - we all know how Vlad and the Crack-fiends on Russian TV love a good giggle - but it's all water long under the bridge: the ethnic Germans who were left after 1945 were all deported by about 1948 and the Sovs turned it into something of a dumping ground for their undesirables.

It's poor, full of Sov industrial waste, and home to about a million Russians. If, when Russia starts collapsing it might decide to jump into the European family, but no one wants it.
 
konigsberg is literally under the bridge. pretty much the whole trashed city was bulldozed into the canals when Ivan arrived, there are precious few original structures left. What exists now is a grim mishmash of crumbling period stuff and sov blok monstrostities. and dont get me started on the rotting fleet that is slowly sinking under water in the base itself

the only redeeming feature was the Kaliningrad Oblast E-Z visa that you could do online and you can have a weekend break with little hassle - an attempt to boost tourism. Unfort as Brits, we were not allowed to use this scheme
 
It's poor, full of Sov industrial waste, and home to about a million Russians. If, when Russia starts collapsing it might decide to jump into the European family, but no one wants it.

Similarly Finland doesn't want the territory back that it lost to Russia in the winter war, because it would make Finland as a whole considerably poorer.
 
It's actually Konigsberg isn't it - the ancient capital of East Prussia and one of the most historic cities of Germany. It was never Russian, had no Russian speaking population before 1945 and only became 'Russian' due to brutal ethnic cleansing after 1945. If Putin and the Russian elite have a bee in their bonnet about the historical status of Ukraine, perhaps we should respond and start calling this city by its real name?
i agree with nietzsche who found the city too kantian

the ancient capital of east prussia my arse, it was the capital of the duchy of prussia before east prussia was a glint in a german eye and for longer than east prussia ever existed.
 


Kyiv Independent is reporting that Ukrainian army is now attacking Russian forces within Kherson City.

This seems to follow an apparent uptick in partisan activity in Kherson. An official installed by Russia was killed by a car bomb the other day and there have been other attacks reported.


While Russian forces have been focusing their energies on trying to capture all of Luhansk, is the liberation of Kherson imminent? It seems artillery supplied by the west is now being used there:


Liberation of Kherson could be a step towards blocking the land bridge from Crimea, cutting off Russia's southern front from being resupplied.
 
If this is true, HIMARS is in use and is causing the Russian army to operate from civilian buildings. FWIW it's been retweeted by John Sweeney and Paul Mason


that doesn't follow, that if this is true it's causing the russians to use civilian buildings. it's not mentioned in the tweet. it's an assumption you're making without afaics any actual evidence. i don't suppose there's many intact command and control centres formerly used by the ukrainians so where else are the russians going to use than er civilian buildings?
 
A 21st century take on being invaded — sue the invaders.


Russia have predictably said that since they have withdrawn from the ECHR, they don’t recognise jurisdiction.
 
A 21st century take on being invaded — sue the invaders.


Russia have predictably said that since they have withdrawn from the ECHR, they don’t recognise jurisdiction.
if you are going to sue the invaders, it'd be an idea to sue them in a court they recognise.
 
I just been reading on the sky news website updates from Ukraine and this was from 5 hours ago according to intelligence reports the war going in Russia favour now

That to me is not good sign for the Ukraine I would of thought?
 
I just been reading on the sky news website updates from Ukraine and this was from 5 hours ago according to intelligence reports the war going in Russia favour now

That to me is not good sign for the Ukraine I would of thought?
the situation changes from moment to moment and it's possible that by this evening the war will be flowing in ukraine's favour once more.
 
That's optimistic, the direction of net territory gain is one directional , and has been from the start imo.
i'm not entirely sure that you grasp by what means wars are won - and indeed lost. territorial gain is one metric, i suppose, but in the ebb and flow of fighting what's won today may easily be lost tomorrow - what matters is not the territory held now but the territory held at the end of the conflict. what matters more greatly now is the means by which men, money and materiel can be mobilised or acquired. and a great deal more equipment is being sent to ukraine than is being generated by russia or acquired by it. russia has suffered great losses including among its senior operational and strategic level leadership - people like colonels and generals. russia has lost a vast number of armoured vehicles and many of its experienced and trained soldiery - equipment and personnel it will be impossible to swiftly replace. sure, we don't know how many men and women the ukrainians have lost, but they at least have an influx of trained soldiers from foreign countries. to my mind any russian 'victory' is going to be pyrrhic.

it is extremely unlikely that russian forces will storm forwards to overrun ukraine now. any territory lost, lost on a long term basis, is likely to be east of the dneipr. russia's inability to secure its starting war aims and their lowering them to the provinces of luhansk and donestsk mean that they aren't likely to try to leapfrog the natural barrier of the dneipr again, so the level of territorial acquisition is i think reaching its maximum. anyway unless and until ukraine invades russia it's obvious that the net territorial gain is only going to be going one way.
 
Reports of a mall in Ukraine being hit. Possibly high casualties. It’s hard to imagine your capital being openly attacked by a n invading foreign force but being unable to retaliate into their home turf because whatever. Psychotic cuntery.
i presume this is a message to the G7 .... i cant top your psychotic cuntery description...ETA: and of course thats the message being sent
 
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Reports of a mall in Ukraine being hit. Possibly high casualties. It’s hard to imagine your capital being openly attacked by a n invading foreign force but being unable to retaliate into their home turf because whatever. Psychotic cuntery.
it's not at all difficult to imagine someone's country being openly attacked by an invading foreign force but them being unable to retaliate into the invaders' home turf, just think of the british and americans in iraq or afghanistan.
 
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