Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Wilf]

I was thinking of rail-related Ugandan discussions which given his history ...

Geoffrey Howe lost his trousers on a train. Definitely no Ugandan activities though, unless his public image belied something much more exciting.

Chancellor of the Exchequer robbed of wallet -- and pants - UPI Archives

The Chancellor of the Exchequeur -- keeper of Britain's purse -- had his own wallet, and pants, snatched on a train during the weekend, but the Treasury said...

www.upi.com

 

[The39thStep]

Geoffrey Howe lost his trousers on a train. Definitely no Ugandan activities though, unless his public image belied something much more exciting.

Chancellor of the Exchequer robbed of wallet -- and pants - UPI Archives

The Chancellor of the Exchequeur -- keeper of Britain's purse -- had his own wallet, and pants, snatched on a train during the weekend, but the Treasury said...

www.upi.com

Charles Kennedy smoking out of a train window

 

[MrCurry]

Ukraine‘s video production dept still smoking something. Nice little dig at Germany for making a bad investment in Nordstream 2 in the intro, but mostly a lot of love for the Swedish anti tank weapons which appear to be working well for them!

 

[steeplejack]

Lithuania Bans Transit Of Sanctioned Russian Goods To Kaliningrad

Lithuania has begun a ban on the rail transit of goods subject to European Union sanctions to the Russian far-western exclave of Kaliningrad, transport authorities in the Baltic nation said on June 18.

www.rferl.org

Russia condemns Lithuania transit ban to Kaliningrad, vows response

The Kremlin on Monday called Lithuania's decision to ban the transit of some goods to Russia's Kaliningrad region "unprecedented" and vowed to respond.

www.reuters.com

Well, the Lithuanians are now partly blockading Kaliningrad, refusing to allow sanctioned cargo to be transported between the Russian Federation and the Kaliningrad enclave, using Lithuanian railways. This has led to panicked buying in the city itself.

The Lithuanian chargé-d-affaires has been summoned for a dressing down in Moscow and the Russian government is threatening a "proportionate response" within days if fiull cargo transport via Lithuania's railways is not restored.

It's the latest step in rapidly deteriorating relations between Russia and Lithuania, after the deranged and illegal move to de-recognise Lithuania's independence, in the Duma, the other week.

This feels like quite a big deal and could have unpredictable escalatory consequences- up to and including Russian military strikes on a NATO member.

Very, very worrying. Even more surprising, no one in the UK / wider European media is talking about it. Not yet, anyway.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Probably not a good move by Lithuania, but with Russia blocking grain exports from Ukraine, not unreasonable.

 

[rubbershoes]

This feels like quite a big deal and could have unpredictable escalatory consequences- up to and including Russian military strikes on a NATO member.

I can't see Russia attacking Lithuania. The last thing they want is for NATO to be directly involved

 

[editor]

This feels like quite a big deal and could have unpredictable escalatory consequences- up to and including Russian military strikes on a NATO member.

I'd like to think that even Putin isn't stupid/arrogant enough to think he could get away with attacking a NATO member.

 

[steeplejack]

I can't see Russia attacking Lithuania. The last thing they want is for NATO to be directly involved

It might not be what they want- but they will play the cards they are dealt. Perhaps it was something unexpected.

I don't expect any full-scale invasion of course but that doesn't rule out targeted strikes or other beneath-the-table deniable stuff.

 

[scalyboy]

He was on the train to Doncaster but bottled it, pulled the emergency cord and leapt off when the train halted at New Southgate

I thought I saw a flabby-arsed, badly-dressed toff with daft hair the other day when I'd just popped out to the corner shop. So now I know who it was. The twat was capering about on the tracks and scrambling up the embankment in an undignified manner, scaring the foxes (who sleep among the buddleia and other undergrowth there) as he ascended - the nob.
Annoying. If I'd known it was de Pfeffel at the time, I would've flung a tin of Alphabetti Spaghetti at the loathsome blusterer

 

[JimW]

China's really got it in for Lithuania too as they've been outspoken on all the issues the regime here hates, so if the Russians did want a go they might have a tacit backer.

 

[steeplejack]

Exactly my thought, unfortunately.

 

[agricola]

It might not be what they want- but they will play the cards they are dealt. Perhaps it was something unexpected.

I don't expect any full-scale invasion of course but that doesn't rule out targeted strikes or other beneath-the-table deniable stuff.

Indeed. This is a needlessly dickish move by the Lithuanians (apparently acting unilaterally) and I hope they are told to wind their necks in over it.

This is the sort of pretext for (re)action that Putin would absolutely love - it relates to something easily avoided, it clearly breaches an international agreement and most importantly it would be exactly this sort of questionable thing that would fracture any kind of communal response (either from the EU or NATO, or both).

 

[steeplejack]

 

[Raheem]

Indeed. This is a needlessly dickish move by the Lithuanians (apparently acting unilaterally) and I hope they are told to wind their necks in over it.

This is the sort of pretext for (re)action that Putin would absolutely love - it relates to something easily avoided, it clearly breaches an international agreement and most importantly it would be exactly this sort of questionable thing that would fracture any kind of communal response (either from the EU or NATO, or both).

I'm not convinced this is a fair or accurate summary. Russia certainly seems to suddenly very concerned. This may or may not be in response to something material, but Russia does have a recent track record of seeing things that are not there.

 

[Humberto]

I think the Russian government have pretty much written themselves off now. They are going to look smaller and smaller when the world faces climate and economic crises. It's a terrible historical move for them.

They are so obviously reckless. They all seem obedient to Putin, which is a poor strategy even for his guards; and they are also tied to his reputation.

It's this 'fake news' maneuver, the propensity and easy relationship with shedding blood at home and abroad: he and his lackeys know what they are doing in terms of war-making. In terms of the consequences they don't and they are now tied to a 4th-rate dictator.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Yeah, enforcing sanctions. What bastards they are. Don't they know they should make all decisions based on fear of the aggresive and unhinged regime of their overpowered, nuclear-armed neighbours?

 

[Flavour]

The real key questions here are two:

1. will the EU shit their pants and demand Lithuania backtrack and allow all transit between Russia and Kaliningrad? (My guess: yes)
2. will Lithuania listen? (My guess: not immediately)

I do not think Russia will attack Lithuania. Not unless they are completely ostracized from both the EU and NATO, which would not be an overnight process.

 

[maomao]

Yeah, enforcing sanctions. What bastards they are.

Do sanctions specifically cover transit by rail across Lithuania which is protected by treaty?

I'm not sure what the Russians can do about it with half of NATO plotted up in that corner of the world. Nuking Lithuania won't help.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Do sanctions specifically cover transit by rail across Lithuania which is protected by treaty?

Maybe not but Russia is pissing on international law six times before breakfast so I see no reason why anyone else should play nicely with them.

 

[Raheem]

Do sanctions specifically cover transit by rail across Lithuania which is protected by treaty?

First thing's first: does the treaty specifically exist?

(Based on a quick Google, it seems doubtful.)

 

[Pickman's model]

First thing's first: does the treaty specifically exist?

(Based on a quick Google, it seems doubtful.)

what search terms did you use?

 

[Raheem]

what search terms did you use?

"Treetea" and "Liffuanier".

 

[Raheem]

Afaict, there isn't any treaty between Russia and Lithuania regarding rail travel to Kaliningrad. The closest thing seems to be a joint declaration by the EU and Russia, but it only protects passenger travel.

 

[Pickman's model]

"Treetea" and "Liffuanier".

which makes your next post the more comprehensible

 

[skyscraper101]

In what seems now to be amazing foresight, Kaliningrad was once offered to the Lithuanian SSR in the 50s by Khrushchev and Lithuania refused on the basis of not thinking it a great idea to incorporate a state of ethnic Russian speakers. Not to mention Russia sent quite a number of their least desirable citizens there after the war.

 

[steeplejack]

Afaict, there isn't any treaty between Russia and Lithuania regarding rail travel to Kaliningrad. The closest thing seems to be a joint declaration by the EU and Russia, but it only protects passenger travel.

Bollocks

Agreement between Russia and Lithuania on procedure for issue of the simplified travel document on the railroad

Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Lithuania on procedure for issue of the simplified travel document on the railroad of June 20, 2003

cis-legislation.com

 

[steeplejack]

Beyond that, agreements also exist on road trasnport and the general regulations regarding access to the EU also apply.

 

[Raheem]

Bollocks

Agreement between Russia and Lithuania on procedure for issue of the simplified travel document on the railroad

Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Lithuania on procedure for issue of the simplified travel document on the railroad of June 20, 2003

cis-legislation.com

Ok. Have you read it?

(It's supplementary to what I posted above, and also entirely about passenger transit.)

 

[Raheem]

.

 

[likesfish]

Problem with that Russia signed an agreement to respect Ukaraines territorial integrity misses all over heartbreaker Lithuania and then discovered Lithuania isn't going to play ball.
Fun that?