Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Yossarian]

Ukraine's national police chief says more than 12,000 killings are being investigated, including those of thousands of people found in mass graves.

Complete information about the number of bodies in mass graves or elsewhere isn’t known, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the American Jewish Committee on Sunday. He cited the case of two children who died with their parents in the basement of an apartment building in Mariupol in a Russian bombing. Zelenskyy, who is Jewish and lost relatives in the Holocaust, asked:

“Why is this happening in 2022? This is not the 1940s. How could mass killings, torture, burned cities, and filtration camps set up by the Russian military in the occupied territories resembling Nazi concentration camps come true?”

Bucolic Ukraine forest is site of mass grave exhumation

Ukraine's national police chief says authorities are investigating the killings of more than 12,000 Ukrainians nationwide in the war since the Russian invasion in February

abcnews.go.com

 

[tim]

What was your option? Just let the Russians take over the whole country with the mass rape torture and imprisonment that would lead to?

Nobody here has any options all we can do is wait and see what happens.

 

[tim]

Is Russia's position in negotations still "give us a big part of your country, get rid of your miiltary, and don't enter alliance with other countries, and in return, we promise not to take any more of your country?"

Probably not, as because of the losses they have had, they're not in a position to dictate such terms.

 

[two sheds]

Probably not, as because of the losses they have had, they're not in a position to dictate such terms.

Not sure Putin's 'negotiating position' will have any relation to reality though.

 

[The39thStep]

Has anyone any idea what the driving forces were for the early negotiations and why those forces have seemingly since been dampened ?

 

[A380]

Has anyone any idea what the driving forces were for the early negotiations and why those forces have seemingly since been dampened ?

That’s really one of the things that the only people who know for sure are those that were in the room. My ill informed guess is the Russians were probably up for it as their war plan saw the Ukrainians capitulating early on and the Ukrainians would have hoped to make the thing stop.

Of course very few people have any idea of what negotiations are going on now and between whom. Anything in the media presumably being the very very tip of the iceberg.

 

[kebabking]

A380 The39thStep

You can probably guess.

It was a Russian attempt at a decapitation strike, just diplomatic instead of military. Home Rule for Ukraine within Ru sphere of influence - trappings of statehood, but fully immeshed in Putin-land, ala Belarus. Remain in place for Zelensky with a big wedge or safe conduct with a big wedge, CTSO membership, no EU or NATO. Ru 'assist' with elections to confirm Treaty of Friendship...

Ukrainians declined on three points:

1) completely unacceptable proposal, nothing within a thousand miles of anything they could agree to, and Ru showed no appetite for actual negotiation.

2) convinced of Ru bad faith. Don't believe they'd stick to anything, regardless of what it was or how complete the capatulation.

3) Became increasingly clear that Ru wasn't going
to achieve (1) or anything like it the battlefield, so why give it to them over the table?

(Got back from Poland last night, spoken to lots of Ukrainian mil both senior and junior. Morale high, bit of frustration about the pace/nature of western help, but increasingly confident that the tech upper hand is yeilding results. Concerned the Ru has effectively unlimited artillery ammunition and will use that to bombard towns/cities and force the Ukrainians to give battle in order to drive them off, allowing Ru to switch massed Artillery onto Ukr forces.)

 

[Flavour]

Looks like Kharkiv will be back on the frontline very soon as Severodonetsk encircled

 

[tim]

Not sure Putin's 'negotiating position' will have any relation to reality though.

Serious negotiations won't happen until both sides accept the reality on the ground. And Putin may or may not be seriously involved in those negotiations.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Serious negotiations won't happen until both sides accept the reality on the ground. And Putin may or may not be seriously involved in those negotiations.

Putin will only be involved in any negotiations if he sees a temporary advantage of whatever kind. His public pronouncements, if taken literally, make it impossible for the Ukrainians to believe anything he says, right now or in the foreseeable future. So negotiations may prove useful to either side as a time to retrench, regroup and recover. But that really is it, unless the Ukrainians decide to surrender completely. Unlikely, but just possible.

 

[Pickman's model]

Putin will only be involved in any negotiations if he sees a temporary advantage of whatever kind. His public pronouncements, if taken literally, make it impossible for the Ukrainians to believe anything he says, right now or in the foreseeable future. So negotiations may prove useful to either side as a time to retrench, regroup and recover. But that really is it, unless the Ukrainians decide to surrender completely. Unlikely, but just possible.

that's hardly unique to putin, is it. i don't suppose zelensky would be involved in negotiations if he didn't think there'd be some sort of advantage to him too.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

The important word was 'temporary'. Putin has shown by his actions and his words that he has no respect for others, international law (however that is understood), Ukraine as a nation, Ukrainians as a people, the environment or anything else. Negotiations, sometimes at least, presuppose that both parties are acting in good faith and that they will agree to and impliment any agreed solution. Zelensky is in no real position to do anything else if a negotiation succeeded. Putin could change his mind at the drop of a hat.

 

[Pickman's model]

The important word was 'temporary'. Putin has shown by his actions and his words that he has no respect for others, international law (however that is understood), Ukraine as a nation, Ukrainians as a people, the environment or anything else. Negotiations, sometimes at least, presuppose that both parties are acting in good faith and that they will agree to and impliment any agreed solution. Zelensky is in no real position to do anything else if a negotiation succeeded. Putin could change his mind at the drop of a hat.

yeh well i thought any reader would take that as read, i don't suppose zelensky would be involved in negotiations if he didn't think there'd be some sort of temporary or longer lasting advantage to him too.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

yeh well i thought any reader would take that as read, i don't suppose zelensky would be involved in negotiations if he didn't think there'd be some sort of temporary or longer lasting advantage to him too.

Any advantage to Z is no more than a breathing space. And so that on the propaganda level he can't be accused of not wanting peace.

 

[kebabking]

Negotiationed advantages aren't zero sum, they are 'advantages compared to..', and given Russia's stance/behaviour/language/track record, Ukraine see's nothing in any likely negotiations that's better than the current war.

Which is more about how bad a future a future under a negotiated peace would be, rather than how great the war is.

They simply see Russia (and not just Putin and his inner circle) as having embarked on an extermination of Ukraine as a concept, a politity, a language, a culture and a people.

They see their options as being either some form of military victory over the Russians, or extermination, with pretty much nothing in between.

 

[Supine]

Negotiationed advantages aren't zero sum, they are 'advantages compared to..', and given Russia's stance/behaviour/language/track record, Ukraine see's nothing in any likely negotiations that's better than the current war.

Which is more about how bad a future a future under a negotiated peace would be, rather than how great the war is.

They simply see Russia (and not just Putin and his inner circle) as having embarked on an extermination of Ukraine as a concept, a politity, a language, a culture and a people.

They see their options as being either some form of military victory over the Russians, or extermination, with pretty much nothing in between.

Seems like a fair summary.

I think the eventual solution will either be Ukraine destroyed or at least part consumed or a Ukrainian victory with no release of Russian sanctions without reparations for the damage done being negotiated with the west.

 

[Pickman's model]

Seems like a fair summary.

I think the eventual solution will either be Ukraine destroyed or at least part consumed or a Ukrainian victory with no release of Russian sanctions without reparations for the damage done being negotiated with the west.

those aren't solutions

 

[kebabking]

those aren't solutions

Solutions is a poor term, because nothing lasts forever - they are passing places, car parks, landfill sites, Travelodge etc: places where an issue might sit for a variable amount of time before starting up again.

The big variable of how this current conflict gets parked is what access Ukraine has to the Black Sea and how free it's agricultural exports are to go by ship to Europe. The east - imo - is lost, as is Crimea.

Personally I see the biggest result of this war being the wholesale collapse of the Russian state into Chinese diplomatic/economic control - proper client/proxy state stuff, with the only real toss up being whether Belarus escapes to Europe or gets dragged down with Russia.

What will happen then is tea leaves stuff, but I reckon that in 10 years Russia will be a proxy state to China in the same way - if perhaps done more discretely - as Belarus is a proxy state to Russia.

 

[The39thStep]

Negotiationed advantages aren't zero sum, they are 'advantages compared to..', and given Russia's stance/behaviour/language/track record, Ukraine see's nothing in any likely negotiations that's better than the current war.

Which is more about how bad a future a future under a negotiated peace would be, rather than how great the war is.

They simply see Russia (and not just Putin and his inner circle) as having embarked on an extermination of Ukraine as a concept, a politity, a language, a culture and a people.

They see their options as being either some form of military victory over the Russians, or extermination, with pretty much nothing in between.

Good point about negotiations and zero sum . Also other party doesn't have to have trust in the other party whatsoever in negotiations , at an international level that may try and be mediated by guarantees by other countries.

 

[Pickman's model]

Solutions is a poor term, because nothing lasts forever - they are passing places, car parks, landfill sites, Travelodge etc: places where an issue might sit for a variable amount of time before starting up again.

The big variable of how this current conflict gets parked is what access Ukraine has to the Black Sea and how free it's agricultural exports are to go by ship to Europe. The east - imo - is lost, as is Crimea.

Personally I see the biggest result of this war being the wholesale collapse of the Russian state into Chinese diplomatic/economic control - proper client/proxy state stuff, with the only real toss up being whether Belarus escapes to Europe or gets dragged down with Russia.

What will happen then is tea leaves stuff, but I reckon that in 10 years Russia will be a proxy state to China in the same way - if perhaps done more discretely - as Belarus is a proxy state to Russia.

i think in ten years time we'll be lucky if we're not grubbing up roots and insects for our dinner and wishing the happy days of '22 were still with us

 

[scalyboy]

i think in ten years time we'll be lucky if we're not grubbing up roots and insects for our dinner and wishing the happy days of '22 were still with us

Will we be envying the penguins?

 

[Pickman's model]

Will we be envying the penguins?

they will have the whip hand over us

 

[gosub]

In terms of their internal strongman rule does seem to be parallels though not aware of any overseas ambitions Franco had beyond existing colonies. He wasn't a nutter of the Hitler stripe, but brutal and pseudo religious like Putin.

Franco wanted, to begin with, to be part of the axis. Hitler and Mussolini didn't. Portugal was neutral throughout WW2 coz they were shit scared Spain would invade

 

[Pickman's model]

In terms of their internal strongman rule does seem to be parallels though not aware of any overseas ambitions Franco had beyond existing colonies. He wasn't a nutter of the Hitler stripe, but brutal and pseudo religious like Putin.

i think that franco was and putin is religious, i don't think either of them is/was pseudo-religious

 

[A380]

i think in ten years time we'll be lucky if we're not grubbing up roots and insects for our dinner and wishing the happy days of '22 were still with us

Insects you say? I wish I had your boundless rose tinted optimism .

 

[Pickman's model]

Insects you say? I wish I had your boundless rose tinted optimism .

ok, cockroaches. i didn't want to say it but you dragged it out of me.

 

[gosub]

Insects you say? I wish I had your boundless rose tinted optimism .

Rest assured there will still be rich people around in ten years.... We could always eat them

 

[tim]

they will have the whip hand over us

Whip flipper.

 

[Pickman's model]

Whip flipper.

you'd be surprised what a penguin can do with a flipper and a bionic prosthesis

 

[Sue]

you'd be surprised what a penguin can do with a flipper and a bionic prosthesis

Mind bleach.