Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Dogsauce]

Dude, the Russians are telling themselves the Ukraine is the Fourth Reich, with actual Nazi Jews - they could turn a UN fleet into anything.

This is a government/state apparatus that is literally on Crack. Reality simply doesn't exist there.

Yeah, true, but what exactly would they do about it? Risk escalation to prevent mass starvation? Sinking ships full of grain not a good look, and there’s already concern being expressed in Russia that Putin’s war has turned the world against them.

in the more grounded world, there are plans to try and take the grain out via rail, though the railways have already taken a pounding due to being used for moving military stuff around, and there’s the slight issue of them being Russian gauge (5ft) which will mean transshipment required at some point.

 

[Dom Traynor]

More like energy drinks and caffeine pills.

 

[frogwoman]

Nah the Nazi Jew thing is a staple of the Russian (and Ukrainian tbh) far right, it's not as outlandish as it sounds (well it is lol but not as mad as it seems to a western audience)

 

[Sue]

Nah the Nazi Jew thing is a staple of the Russian (and Ukrainian tbh) far right, it's not as outlandish as it sounds (well it is lol but not as mad as it seems to a western audience)

If its not too complicated to explain, how does that work..? Cos yeah .

 

[NoXion]

If its not too complicated to explain, how does that work..? Cos yeah .

I've heard of anti-Semites claiming that the Nazi regime was a Jewish plot to make anti-Semitism look bad (as if it needs any help in that department), but I don't know if that's the same thing that frogwoman is talking about.

 

[gosub]

Yeah, true, but what exactly would they do about it? Risk escalation to prevent mass starvation? Sinking ships full of grain not a good look, and there’s already concern being expressed in Russia that Putin’s war has turned the world against them.

in the more grounded world, there are plans to try and take the grain out via rail, though the railways have already taken a pounding due to being used for moving military stuff around, and there’s the slight issue of them being Russian gauge (5ft) which will mean transshipment required at some point.

Russians have been arial bombing grain silos

 

[frogwoman]

So basically there's the idea that Stalinism (but probably not Stalin himself, weirdly a lot of them love him) was a holocaust of white Christian Russians by Jews, especially Trotsky and probably Lenin who's suspected of being Jewish.

Hitler was also a Jew according to this theory. Unlike in the West Soviet education sometimes didn't mention the holocaust, or when it was mentioned, framed it as to do with being against the Soviet Union rather than specifically anti Jewish. And Jews and other minorities are working against Russia. If you think of Hitler as being specifically anti Russia rather than antisemitic these theories start making more 'sense'

 

[frogwoman]

I've heard of anti-Semites claiming that the Nazi regime was a Jewish plot to make anti-Semitism look bad (as if it needs any help in that department), but I don't know if that's the same thing that frogwoman is talking about.

Yeah there's the whole 'no more brothers wars' thing as well, Hitler could have saved the white race as a whole from Jews rather than those damn Jews in the Nazi Party getting him to attack the Soviet Union.

 

[Sue]

Thanks for the explanations, NoXion and frogwoman. I guess if people believe that shit, that kind of explains why they might believe some of the Ukrainian shit too. Fucking hell though

 

[frogwoman]

thread on Russian fash including Russian Imperial Movement etc

 

[frogwoman]

 

[frogwoman]

Henry Kissinger: Ukraine must give Russia territory

Former US Secretary of State warns against the defeat of Putin as Western unity on sanctions frays badly

www.telegraph.co.uk

Well known nuclear weapons hater and opponent of US aggression Henry Kissinger calls for Ukraine to give up territory

 

[maomao]

Henry Kissinger: Ukraine must give Russia territory

Former US Secretary of State warns against the defeat of Putin as Western unity on sanctions frays badly

www.telegraph.co.uk

Well known nuclear weapons hater and opponent of US aggression Henry Kissinger calls for Ukraine to give up territory

The fact the evil fucker is still alive is proof there's no justice or karma in this world. He was as bad as Putin in his day.

 

[frogwoman]

The fact the evil fucker is still alive is proof there's no justice or karma in this world. He was as bad as Putin in his day.

Well yeah exactly.

 

[frogwoman]

ugh this guy just loves war doesn't he?

 

[tim]

There’s the issue of mines to contend with, and the fact they can’t take military ships in with them due to the treaty around the Turkish straits.

But I don’t think some sort of UN task force to ensure safe passage is a bad idea, kind of like a very limited no-fly zone supporting the shipping route, and nothing that could be perceived as a hostile act.

Yes a UN task Force easy to set up if you can get the support of the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

 

[Dogsauce]

One less Wagner cunt. One less ground attack aircraft.

The BBC confirmed Ukraine's claim that retired Russian Major General Kanamat Botashev was shot down, possibly by a Stinger MANPADS, in a Su-25 aircraft near Popasna on Sunday and killed. It appears he was flying for Wagner. https://bbc.com/russian/features-61559430

 

[agricola]

Henry Kissinger: Ukraine must give Russia territory

Former US Secretary of State warns against the defeat of Putin as Western unity on sanctions frays badly

www.telegraph.co.uk

Well known nuclear weapons hater and opponent of US aggression Henry Kissinger calls for Ukraine to give up territory

The problem the world has is that not only is that the most likely way this ends, its also the most likely way that a global food crisis is averted. The whole notion of it is shameful, and there are very many reasons to suggest the Russians wouldn't accept it anyway, of course but he is not wrong.

 

[Raheem]

It's the only most likely way this ends once you decide it is, certainly.

 

[8ball]

It's the only way this ends once you decide it is, certainly.

No one said it was the only way it ends (no one here, anyway).

I agree it is the most likely outcome at this time.

 

[Pickman's model]

One less Wagner cunt. One less ground attack aircraft.

I hope they do the big one in Bayreuth and get rid of a great load of Wagner cunts at once

 

[Raheem]

No one said it was the only way it ends (no one here, anyway).

I agree it is the most likely outcome at this time.

It all turns on which clever commentators sent out to push a particular message are most believed. The outcome is a question of Western will.

 

[David Clapson]

If this Politico article is correct, Biden may be backtracking about supplying multiple rocket launchers, including the M142 HIMARS which has a range of 300km. Perhaps this points to a consensus in the US that Ukraine should cede territory? Biden resists Ukrainian demands for long-range rocket launchers

 

[8ball]

It all turns on which clever commentators sent out to push a particular message are most believed. The outcome is a question of Western will.

Feasible outcomes:

i) Ukraine is destroyed; no major escalation
ii) Ukraine is destroyed; major escalation
iii) Peaceful settlement
iv) Destabilising event before any of the above options comes to pass; major escalation

I don't see any version of iii) which involves full restoration to Jan2021 territorial integrity for Ukraine.
All other scenarios are far worse.

I think that fortunately, the least worse feasible case is the most probable right now.

I agree with you that Western will is a prime factor in the outcome.

If iii), then it will influence the extent of Ukrainian territorial loss.

PS: This is absolutely not a rundown in any way of what I want to happen.

Disclaimer: I am not a time traveller or military expert and the above opinions are based on my grasp of the situation about 10 days ago.

 

[strung out]

No one said it was the only way it ends (no one here, anyway).

I agree it is the most likely outcome at this time.

It's not likely at all while a huge majority of the Ukrainian population is against it. Zelenskyy wouldn't be president for much longer if he did give up Ukrainian territory.



Just more examples of privileged westerners telling populations of invaded nations what they should do again

 

[8ball]

Just more examples of privileged westerners telling populations of invaded nations what they should do again

I'm not telling anyone what they should do, and it's not what I want to happen.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Trouble is, if territory is given up, the odds are Russia will grab some more a year or two down the line.

 

[maomao]

The war will either end in a negotiated settlement or the complete destruction of one or both parties. Fucking fortune teller me.

 

[8ball]

The war will either end in a negotiated settlement or the complete destruction of one or both parties. Fucking fortune teller me.

Oi!! Leave my crystal ball alone!!

 

[8ball]

Trouble is, if territory is given up, the odds are Russia will grab some more a year or two down the line.

Pretty much a dead cert unless the West gave Ukraine a lot of assistance in securing the border.