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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

dilute micro said:
Who seriously thinks "2014 boundries" didn't come from an invasion? By all rights Ukraine shouldn't have to or be expected to allow Russia to grab whatever land they want.
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Iirc even Zelesnky (recently) was talking about withdrawal to 2014 boundaries as a start point to reopening negotiations. Clearly he's not looking to justify the 2014 invasion... My point there was just that this isn't what Johnson was talking about (far as I can tell)... That was with reference to Ukraine requesting heavy weapons, which they justified in terms of needing counter-battery fire etc to move to retake areas occupied in the current invasion. People have grown to expect a lot from the Ukrainian armed forces, but even their current counter-attacks are likely challenging and costly.
 
Cid said:
Iirc even Zelesnky (recently) was talking about withdrawal to 2014 boundaries as a start point to reopening negotiations. Clearly he's not looking to justify the 2014 invasion... My point there was just that this isn't what Johnson was talking about (far as I can tell)... That was with reference to Ukraine requesting heavy weapons, which they justified in terms of needing counter-battery fire etc to move to retake areas occupied in the current invasion. People have grown to expect a lot from the Ukrainian armed forces, but even their current counter-attacks are likely challenging and costly.
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the ukrainians have admitted to heavy - tho unspecified - losses
 
Ukraine has pushed well past Kharkiv, and is forcing the Russians back almost to their border with Ukraine. The more I see of this, even allowing for bias on my part, and a tendency for Ukrainian good news to be more available than Russian good news, the Ukrainian forces seem to have met the clodhopping, doctrinaire and hierarchical Russian military with a kind of flair and flourish that regularly leaves their opponents floundering. Of course, it's quite possible that these counterattacks are being facilitated by some of the Western artillery on its way in (bet your bottom dollar that whatever public pronouncements these nations are making about timelines, the reality will be shorter, for various political and operational reasons), so perhaps those M777s, and those monster French truck-mounted artillery pieces are starting to do their thing. Either way, Russia is looking pretty comprehensively flat-footed - the only advantage they have is sheer force of numbers, and that's being massively hampered by equipment failure, materiel shortages, and seriously poor morale.

 
existentialist said:
Ukraine has pushed well past Kharkiv, and is forcing the Russians back almost to their border with Ukraine. The more I see of this, even allowing for bias on my part, and a tendency for Ukrainian good news to be more available than Russian good news, the Ukrainian forces seem to have met the clodhopping, doctrinaire and hierarchical Russian military with a kind of flair and flourish that regularly leaves their opponents floundering. Of course, it's quite possible that these counterattacks are being facilitated by some of the Western artillery on its way in (bet your bottom dollar that whatever public pronouncements these nations are making about timelines, the reality will be shorter, for various political and operational reasons), so perhaps those M777s, and those monster French truck-mounted artillery pieces are starting to do their thing. Either way, Russia is looking pretty comprehensively flat-footed - the only advantage they have is sheer force of numbers, and that's being massively hampered by equipment failure, materiel shortages, and seriously poor morale.

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I get the impression Russia is more focused on the area around Lysychansk, which would make sense in terms of Donbas. They have made more (although still limited) progress there, with Ukraine withdrawing from Popasna.

Anyway, think I should do myself a favour and drop out for a bit.

<inevitably back tomorrow>
 
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HAL9000 said:
its a common thing, even the US global hawk drone broadcasts it postion, which can be picked up by sites like flightradar24. If things got dangerous for the US, perhaps they might turn off this signal and use drones which are stealthy.

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flight radar gives quite a bit of informaiton about even the type of fighters if regestered

watching a miltary plane get a eurofighter escort as it travels up the north of england atm
 
The ISW analysis of Putins Victory Day Speech. From here - Institute for the Study of War


Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin used his May 9 speech to praise ongoing Russian efforts in Ukraine and reinforce existing Kremlin framing rather than announcing a change. He did not announce an escalation or declare victory in the Russian war in Ukraine.
  • Putin likely calculated that he could not ask the Russian population for a greater commitment to the war effort and implicitly reassured the Russian people that he would not ask for a greater societal commitment in his speech.
  • Putin may be recognizing the growing risks he faces at home and in Ukraine and may be adjusting his objectives, and his desired end state in Ukraine, accordingly.
  • The Kremlin has already scaled down its objectives in Ukraine (from its initial objective of capturing Kyiv and full regime change) and will likely do so again—or be forced to do so by Ukrainian battlefield successes.
  • Regardless of any change—or lack thereof—in the Kremlin's objectives, Putin’s speech indicates that the Kremlin has likely decided to maintain its current level of resourcing in the war.
  • The Kremlin attempted to demonstrate the alleged popularity of its occupation of eastern Ukraine through forced Victory Day celebrations in occupied Ukrainian territories.
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interesting that Putin did not feel able to set the whole country on a war footing (or wave his nukes about) - which maybe demonstrates two tentatively assuring facts
1. He has a certain level of connection with reality and/or is constrained to an extent by others in government, military or elsewhere.
2. That his regime is not an all powerful totalitarian state (yet)
 
It’s being reported (via some statement on Sputnik) that Russia is going to go for a straight annexation of Kherson Oblast, which they mostly occupy, rather than bothering with the pretence of a referendum. They’ve also sent an order round requiring all housing managers etc. to report on empty residential properties so they can be filled with Russian immigrants or pro-Russian Ukrainians displaced by fighting. 45% of the cities residents are reported to have fled. There was also a May 9th parade featuring Russians bussed in from Crimea, footage of which had been widely circulated by bot accounts and assorted lickspittles.
 
"In an amazing show of strength and persistence, the Ukrainian Army have driven the Russian Occupation Forces out of the City of Kharkiv. Ukrainian troops are advancing in the Kharkiv direction, and Russian troops are retreating so as not to be defeated and taken to the "cauldron"-Arestovych

It is an unprecedented defeat for the Russian Army. which, with even recently consolidating troops and supply lines in the east, they are still unable to hold any large city, even if it is right next to the Russian Border. Russian units are currently in a full retreat trying to make it over the Ukrainian/Russian border.

Without holding Kharkiv, an encirclement of the Ukrainian Army in the Donbas is impossible.

“If Western weapons are delivered by May 20, Ukraine has a chance to defeat the enemy on our territory.” If the Ukrainians have enough time to set up defensive fortifications to the north and east of Kharkav,they should be able to close that front for good,and start working their way east."
 
they never really took kharkiv tho, nor even came close to encircling it. not to minimize the gravity of the situation of the Russian Army who are, it would seem, very fucked indeed, but the villages which they've been driven out of between Kharkiv and the russian border are tiny, so don't want to get too overexcited about it yet
 
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