Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[existentialist]

they never really took kharkiv tho, nor even came close to encircling it. not to minimize the gravity of the situation of the Russian Army who are, it would seem, very fucked indeed, but the villages which they've been driven out of between Kharkiv and the russian border are tiny, so don't want to get too overexcited about it yet

It's more about ground than cities/towns. Even very shortly after the beginning of the "special military operation ", it had become clear that occupation of those was likely to be a significant problem. Look at the huge amount of effort they have put into seizing Mariupol, and - even though they've essentially flattened it - they STILL don't control it in any meaningful way.

And now, of course, it's not just about the ground that the Ukrainian army holds, but what it can reach from that ground with its artillery, UAVs, etc.

 

[spitfire]

John Spencer now saying he reckons the Russians are actually starting to lose this war. Seen a few other military types cautiously advancing this possibility.

Has Russia been beaten? This military expert says that moment is coming soon

Russia had a decent plan, says warfare expert John Spencer. But military incompetence has led to total failure

www.salon.com

 

[editor]

John Spencer now saying he reckons the Russians are actually starting to lose this war. Seen a few other military types cautiously advancing this possibility.

Has Russia been beaten? This military expert says that moment is coming soon

Russia had a decent plan, says warfare expert John Spencer. But military incompetence has led to total failure

www.salon.com

Blimey!

The Russian military has shown that it is in fact that bad. At the beginning of this war, they probably began as the No. 2 or 3 military in the world in terms of combat power. The Russian military will probably leave the Ukraine war diminished down to No. 25 or 30 at least.

On paper, the Russian military should have been able to dominate the Ukrainian military and win in three days, based just on the size of the Ukraine military. The problem with that prediction is armed resistance, which is when citizens rise up. That can take many forms. It's not just some of the images that we've seen of Ukrainian civilians with AK-47s. The Ukrainian government enacted a law right before the invasion that increased the territorial defenses from some 200,000 soldiers to about a million. That can't be discredited as a factor. I believe many outside observers underestimated the Ukrainian military's capabilities.

 

[ska invita]

Quite amazing if so. id like to see the list of the top 30 in the authors view

"I believe many outside observers underestimated the Ukrainian military's capabilities." < its Nato weapons and Nato intelligence tbf. Also the difference between a defensive war and an aggressive one

 

[spitfire]

Not all NATO, the UA have plenty of tricks up their sleeve. IIRC it was one of their missiles that sank the Moskva and if this thread is anything to go by then they have other very effective home grown weapons systems, (there are people in the comments that say it isn't, would be interested in kk's view if he has the time, it's long. Main point of contention seems to be his comparison between US etc. firing in anti insurgent ops hence less appetite for collateral damage leading to longer fire times.).

Summary, UA have developed uber for artillery and instead of a battery of guns firing from one field they can vector in lots of different artillery pieces from various fields to targets.

 

[A380]

John Spencer now saying he reckons the Russians are actually starting to lose this war. Seen a few other military types cautiously advancing this possibility.

Has Russia been beaten? This military expert says that moment is coming soon

Russia had a decent plan, says warfare expert John Spencer. But military incompetence has led to total failure

www.salon.com

Thanks for posting this, very interesting.

 

[IC3D]

UK defence acknowledge now there is an ongoing attempt to take Snake island.
Yesterday RU propoganda was boasting of a massive victory.
Boris's Gallipoli?

UK says fight continues between Russian, Ukrainian forces at Snake Island

Fighting between Russia and Ukrainian forces has continued on Zmiinyi Island, also known as Snake Island, with Russia repeatedly trying to reinforce its exposed troops.

www.reuters.com

 

[tommers]

FWIW.

 

[teuchter]

It's more about ground than cities/towns. Even very shortly after the beginning of the "special military operation ", it had become clear that occupation of those was likely to be a significant problem. Look at the huge amount of effort they have put into seizing Mariupol, and - even though they've essentially flattened it - they STILL don't control it in any meaningful way.

In my mind, when it first starting featuring in reports, Mariupol was a vast industrial behemoth of a city ... until I looked at some maps. Obviously its geographical size is not the only thing relevant to its strategic significance, but it's interesting to compare it to some UK towns at the same scale, for example Brighton -

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Not all NATO, the UA have plenty of tricks up their sleeve. IIRC it was one of their missiles that sank the Moskva and if this thread is anything to go by then they have other very effective home grown weapons systems, (there are people in the comments that say it isn't, would be interested in kk's view if he has the time, it's long. Main point of contention seems to be his comparison between US etc. firing in anti insurgent ops hence less appetite for collateral damage leading to longer fire times.).

Summary, UA have developed uber for artillery and instead of a battery of guns firing from one field they can vector in lots of different artillery pieces from various fields to targets.

Like most things in life it seems to be a mixture, the Ukrainian military is very capable, motivated and determined. They have decent weapons systems of their own, which combined with NATO intel is devastating to Russian warships and generals alike. Add in the NATO anti-tank missiles and training in the effective use of those, plus other training from some of the very best militaries in the world over the past couple of years and it seems that Ukraine is in the best position to repel the fascist fuckers that they can be without NATO boots actually on the ground.

 

[strung out]

Not all NATO, the UA have plenty of tricks up their sleeve. IIRC it was one of their missiles that sank the Moskva and if this thread is anything to go by then they have other very effective home grown weapons systems, (there are people in the comments that say it isn't, would be interested in kk's view if he has the time, it's long. Main point of contention seems to be his comparison between US etc. firing in anti insurgent ops hence less appetite for collateral damage leading to longer fire times.).

Summary, UA have developed uber for artillery and instead of a battery of guns firing from one field they can vector in lots of different artillery pieces from various fields to targets.

Yep - the Ukrainian manufactured Skif anti-tank missile system has been very effective at taking out a substantial number of Russian vehicles (and even the odd helicopter or two).

Skif (anti-tank guided missile) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[spitfire]

Yep - the Ukrainian manufactured Skif anti-tank missile system has been very effective at taking out a substantial number of Russian vehicles (and even the odd helicopter or two).

Skif (anti-tank guided missile) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Oh yeah, they're the ones with Arabic writing that caused all sorts of mad claims from pro Russia accounts. They were export models redirected to domestic defence.

 

[ska invita]

Not all NATO, the UA have plenty of tricks up their sleeve. IIRC it was one of their missiles that sank the Moskva and if this thread is anything to go by then they have other very effective home grown weapons systems, (there are people in the comments that say it isn't, would be interested in kk's view if he has the time, it's long. Main point of contention seems to be his comparison between US etc. firing in anti insurgent ops hence less appetite for collateral damage leading to longer fire times.).

Summary, UA have developed uber for artillery and instead of a battery of guns firing from one field they can vector in lots of different artillery pieces from various fields to targets.

im not that fussed about the minor details of which missile did what, bottom line is take away all NATO support and peoples previous estimations of Ukrainian military wouldn't have been far wrong i expect

 

[spitfire]

im not that fussed about the minor details of which missile did what, bottom line is take away all NATO support and peoples previous estimations of Ukrainian military wouldn't have been far wrong i expect

Certainly the "old" UA were unsurprisingly very like the Russians, (according to the handful of articles I have read). They may not have improved without NATO help but I feel there is a tendency to deny them agency in this sometimes. Having said that the Ukrainians knew they had to improve because of the big Russian bear next door so it may have happened one way or the NATother. But we're deep into what if now.

 

[cupid_stunt]

In my mind, when it first starting featuring in reports, Mariupol was a vast industrial behemoth of a city ... until I looked at some maps. Obviously its geographical size is not the only thing relevant to its strategic significance, but it's interesting to compare it to some UK towns at the same scale, for example Brighton -

Ukraine doesn't do massive cities, even Kyiv only has a population of 2.6m, Kharkiv 1.43m, Odessa 1m, in population terms Mariupol is just over 40% bigger than Brighton & Hove City, population 430k to 290k.

LINK

 

[Fez909]

Ukraine doesn't do massive cities, even Kyiv only has a population of 2.6m, Kharkiv 1.43m, Odessa 1m, in population terms Mariupol is just over 40% bigger than Brighton & Hove City, population 430k to 290k.

LINK

Most similar to Cardiff in the UK, then.

 

[kebabking]

If you're interested in why Russian tanks brewup so violently, and why western ones don't...

 

[Artaxerxes]

This isn't how a normal army fords rivers.

 

[keybored]

This isn't how a normal army fords rivers.

Maybe they thought removing the turrets would make them into big kayaks

 

[Yossarian]

This isn't how a normal army fords rivers.

"We got the idea after we heard about an army that used its own bodies to make bridges."

"Sergey, you fool, those were army ants."

 

[frogwoman]

Not going to link to it but Azov have posted some fairly upsetting photos of wounded soldiers in the steelworks, people with legs blown off and little or no medical treatment available, one guy having a wound treated on a pile of coats . Meanwhile, one of the new Russian occupation officials said that he wanted to turn Mariupol into a resort town

 

[spitfire]

Not going to link to it but Azov have posted some fairly upsetting photos of wounded soldiers in the steelworks, people with legs blown off and little or no medical treatment available, one guy having a wound treated on a pile of coats . Meanwhile, one of the new Russian occupation officials said that he wanted to turn Mariupol into a resort town

The Graun has an edited version, still pretty hardcore.

Inside the Azovstal steelworks – in pictures

A series of photos published on the Azov Regiment’s Telegram channel this week appears to show the squalid conditions of wounded Ukrainian defenders holed up under the Azovstal steelworks in besieged Mariupol. The Azov regiment retains some far-right affiliations

www.theguardian.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not going to link to it but Azov have posted some fairly upsetting photos of wounded soldiers in the steelworks, people with legs blown off and little or no medical treatment available, one guy having a wound treated on a pile of coats . Meanwhile, one of the new Russian occupation officials said that he wanted to turn Mariupol into a resort town

This is probably the only chance they have.

Ukraine has proposed to Russia that badly injured defenders in the Azovstal steel plant in the southern port of Mariupol be swapped for Russian prisoners of war, deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said on Wednesday, Reuters reports. "There is no agreement yet. Negotiations are continuing,” she said in an online post.

We’ll bring you more details when we have them. Conditions in the besieged steel works, Ukraine’s last stand in Mariupol, have been appalling both for Ukrainian military coming under heavy fire and attacks from the Russians and Ukrainian civilians hiding and recently evacuated from the huge, labyrinthine complex that has several floors below ground. LINK

 

[Indeliblelink]

Ukraine announces first war crimes trial of Russian soldier in custody​

Ukraine’s prosecutor general said Wednesday that the country would try a 21-year-old Russian soldier who is in custody, adding that he would be the first Russian service member to stand trial there on a war crimes charge in the 11-week conflict.
The prosecutor’s statement accused Vadim Shishimarin of firing several shots with a Kalashnikov rifle from a car, killing an unarmed 62-year-old resident in a village in the Sumy region of northeastern Ukraine on Feb. 28. It said the victim was pushing a bike by the side of a road before he was shot in the head and “died on the spot a few dozen meters from his home.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/11/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-KJEQRXSHERARNPNJFW6WY2MWNE

Ukraine prosecutors ready to launch first war crimes trials of Russia conflict

Exclusive: Russian soldier who allegedly killed man before raping his wife to be among first to face trial

www.theguardian.com

 

[Indeliblelink]

Washington Post has also released this database of verified videos from the war. A useful collection of all the social media videos that have been going around for the last few months.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/ukraine-russia-war-videos-verified/?itid=lk_inline_manual_96

 

[spitfire]

The Graun has an edited version, still pretty hardcore.

Inside the Azovstal steelworks – in pictures

A series of photos published on the Azov Regiment’s Telegram channel this week appears to show the squalid conditions of wounded Ukrainian defenders holed up under the Azovstal steelworks in besieged Mariupol. The Azov regiment retains some far-right affiliations

www.theguardian.com

Crikey, that was my 10,000th post.

 

[kebabking]

Who knew Russian Crack dens had WiFi?

 

[The39thStep]

The Graun has an edited version, still pretty hardcore.

Inside the Azovstal steelworks – in pictures

A series of photos published on the Azov Regiment’s Telegram channel this week appears to show the squalid conditions of wounded Ukrainian defenders holed up under the Azovstal steelworks in besieged Mariupol. The Azov regiment retains some far-right affiliations

www.theguardian.com

Wish the Guardian would make its mind up about Azov .They've gone from 'most notorious far right' to ' in the past had nationalist far-right affiliations', to 'retains some far right affiliations ' this year.

 

[spitfire]

Wish the Guardian would make its mind up about Azov .They've gone from 'most notorious far right' to ' in the past had nationalist far-right affiliations', to 'retains some far right affiliations ' this year.

It's a weird one, I know there is a thread about this but it has been a curious journey for sure. I remember a C4 or BBC piece before the invasion where they visited an Azov civilian training day and there were Azov fighters there with Totenkopf and Black Sun patches, also the neighbouring kebab stand had WHITE POWER sprayed on it. In English...

There's no doubt they are fighting like lions but I agree the far right element is probably more prevalent than western media has decided it is in recent times.

 

[spitfire]

Wish the Guardian would make its mind up about Azov .They've gone from 'most notorious far right' to ' in the past had nationalist far-right affiliations', to 'retains some far right affiliations ' this year.

Oh and there are other troops there, i've seen Marines and Border Guards mentioned and pictured. I think the overall commander is a Marine.