Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Dogsauce]

This isn't how a normal army fords rivers.

Someone counted the loss of 32 Russian vehicles in that failed crossing, almost half a battalion tactical group. Could be more unseen. Reported that some troops did make a successful crossing but were being hunted down in the forest after.

Rumour is that Ukraine figured out likely crossing points on the river and had their artillery set up on those coordinates, waiting and watching, then picked the right moment to hit once vehicles started moving over the completed bridge. Left a flat mess behind.

 

[The39thStep]

It's a weird one, I know there is a thread about this but it has been a curious journey for sure. I remember a C4 or BBC piece before the invasion where they visited an Azov civilian training day and there were Azov fighters there with Totenkopf and Black Sun patches, also the neighbouring kebab stand had WHITE POWER sprayed on it. In English...

There's no doubt they are fighting like lions but I agree the far right element is probably more prevalent than western media has decided it is in recent times.

I think tbh that the other thread is going to be the best place to explore the portrayal of Azov by the media before and since the invasion .

 

[spitfire]

I think tbh that the other thread is going to be the best place to explore the portrayal of Azov by the media before and since the invasion .

Just a slight tangent, back to regurgitating received twitter knowledge for me. Will leave the other thread to the big hitters.

 

[kebabking]

Someone counted the loss of 32 Russian vehicles in that failed crossing, almost half a battalion tactical group. Could be more unseen. Reported that some troops did make a successful crossing but were being hunted down in the forest after.

Rumour is that Ukraine figured out likely crossing points on the river and had their artillery set up on those coordinates, waiting and watching, then picked the right moment to hit once vehicles started moving over the completed bridge. Left a flat mess behind.

I think I remember reading that it was the third or fourth time a Russian unit had forded in that exact location - even a great plan rarely works more than once....

It goes back to training. They simply don't have an ethos of thinking 'now if I do this, how is the enemy going to try and fuck me over?', and their top down system means that this is the crossing point the Bde Cdr pointed to on day one, and it hasn't occurred to anyone to change it.

 

[existentialist]

If you're interested in why Russian tanks brewup so violently, and why western ones don't...

View attachment 322143

NATO should print millions of these, and drop them over Russia...

 

[Dogsauce]

I think I remember reading that it was the third or fourth time a Russian unit had forded in that exact location - even a great plan rarely works more than once....

It goes back to training. They simply don't have an ethos of thinking 'now if I do this, how is the enemy going to try and fuck me over?', and their top down system means that this is the crossing point the Bde Cdr pointed to on day one, and it hasn't occurred to anyone to change it.

There’s a Twitter thread by a military engineer (‘Max’) who surveyed the river after sightings of forces gathering in the area and picked the likely spot. Claims of up to 1500 dead as a result of this botched operation, with much of the damage being done by aircraft bombing (which sounds implausible that they are operating freely that close to the front).

Thread by @kms_d4k on Thread Reader App

@kms_d4k: What I did to destroy Russian pantonne bridge over Siverskyi Donets - a thread 🧵 Here you go -> -> -> The context: I am UA military engineering + EOD officer. I have served one turn...

threadreaderapp.com

There is some scepticism as the guy later asks for donations but his role is backed up by another user who is well known and credible.

 

[teuchter]

Modesty not really Max's thing then.

 

[existentialist]

Modesty not really Max's thing then.

Heh, yeah. I did wonder if something got lost in translation/culture, though...

Or maybe he's just a bit of a nerd?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

'If I see a Russian soldier, I know what I'm going to do'

A month after playing at the Australian Open, Ukrainian Sergiy Stakhovsky dropped everything and left to fight for his country.

www.bbc.co.uk

The story of Sergiy Stakovsky, pro-tennis player at the end of his career, lives in Hungary with his wife and three kids. Has no military background at all.

His wife asked what he was going to do.

"It was not the answer she wanted to hear and she got upset," Stakhovsky says.

"I played Davis Cup with pride for almost 17 years so I honestly don't see how I could be the privileged one to stay out of what's going on in my country.

"I left three kids and a wife I adore and I went to defend my country and I went to defend my family. There's nothing great about what I did.

And that is why Russia can't win, whatever winning means here.

 

[kebabking]

Another reason @BahnhofStrasse...



Ukrainian networks pinging mobile phones using Russian SIM cards and still broadcasting.

The big map is interesting, but the mapping/locations are accurate enough to do artillery strikes, and I don't mean big, 'front' level fire missions, I mean to within the blast radius of individual shells....

 

[frogwoman]

Their operational security leaves a lot to be desired doesn't it?

 

[kebabking]

Their operational security leaves a lot to be desired doesn't it?

To start with it was great, I mean they didn't even tell the Russian Army they were going to invade....

 

[cupid_stunt]

Another reason @BahnhofStrasse...

Ukrainian networks pinging mobile phones using Russian SIM cards and still broadcasting.

The big map is interesting, but the mapping/locations are accurate enough to do artillery strikes, and I don't mean big, 'front' level fire missions, I mean to within the blast radius of individual shells....

This is insane.

 

[frogwoman]

Haven't the Ukrainians been able to track stolen mobiles etc into Russia itself?

 

[maomao]

Another reason @BahnhofStrasse...



Ukrainian networks pinging mobile phones using Russian SIM cards and still broadcasting.

The big map is interesting, but the mapping/locations are accurate enough to do artillery strikes, and I don't mean big, 'front' level fire missions, I mean to within the blast radius of individual shells....

Why are there none at all in Mariupol? That's crawling with Russians surely?

 

[ska invita]

And that is why Russia can't win, whatever winning means here.

The British did a good job of subjugating a third of the planet despite being equally hated and resisted, but i take your point .

In an alternate history id bet if Putin sent the military in incrementally, over into the Donbas first, a slow salami slice creep into russian speaking areas, a series of bullshit independence votes leading the way, the campaign would've been a success . Trump was kind of right at this point (obviously the 'genius' remark was sickening):

Trump praises ‘genius’ Putin for moving troops to eastern Ukraine

Former president says Russian leader made ‘very savvy’ decision to recognise two territories of eastern Ukraine as independent

www.theguardian.com

...it all seemed shrewd and calculated up to then. Can only think arrogance took over

 

[A380]

Another reason @BahnhofStrasse...



Ukrainian networks pinging mobile phones using Russian SIM cards and still broadcasting.

The big map is interesting, but the mapping/locations are accurate enough to do artillery strikes, and I don't mean big, 'front' level fire missions, I mean to within the blast radius of individual shells....

Have the Russians run out of plastic bags and those cable ties with serial numbers on as well?

 

[platinumsage]

Why are there none at all in Mariupol? That's crawling with Russians surely?

No functioning Ukrainian cell towers perhaps.

 

[A380]

The British did a good job of subjugating a third of the planet despite being equally hated and resisted...

...

TBF 'we' did 90% of it without fighting ourselves, paying other people to do it on 'our' behalf and/or convincing them that their interests aligned with 'ours', right up to the moment they realised you couldn't trust us and they didn't.

 

[A380]

No functioning Ukrainian cell towers perhaps.

I imagine the electricity distribution network is off line and the diesel in any cell site back up generators has long run out.

 

[spitfire]

I imagine the electricity distribution network is off line and the diesel in any cell site back up generators has long run out.

Would the Russians be capable of installing or bringing in Russian network cell towers behind them as they advance? Hence the "no roaming" area behind the front lines.

 

[Supine]

Another reason @BahnhofStrasse...



Ukrainian networks pinging mobile phones using Russian SIM cards and still broadcasting.

The big map is interesting, but the mapping/locations are accurate enough to do artillery strikes, and I don't mean big, 'front' level fire missions, I mean to within the blast radius of individual shells....

That is just unbelievable dumb from the Russians. Good

 

[Pickman's model]

The British did a good job of subjugating a third of the planet despite being equally hated and resisted, but i take your point .

well a quarter (about 22%)

 

[two sheds]

we ruled the seas remember that's more than half

 

[A380]

Would the Russians be capable of installing or bringing in Russian network cell towers behind them as they advance? Hence the "no roaming" area behind the front lines.

Various NATO countries have used mobile containerised mobile phone systems (basically a switch and base site in a container and mobile cell sites in trailers with pump up masts, in some cases configured to allow unencrypted civilian handsets on the network. This is in the public domain.

Whether the Russians have these or not (and if they do if they work or if someone flogged off the batteries and diesel) I wouldn't know.

 

[A380]

we ruled the seas remember that's more than half

Two thirds apparently. And wasn't it the Waves we ruled?

 

[spitfire]

Various NATO countries have used mobile containerised mobile phone systems (basically a switch and base site in a container and mobile cell sites in trailers with pump up masts, in some cases configured to allow encrypted civilian handsets on the network. This is in the public domain.

Whether the Russians have these or not (and if they do if they work or if someone flogged off the batteries and diesel) I wouldn't know.

Yeah they manage to get temp ones at festivals and have done for years now. The Russians must have a few I'd guess.

 

[two sheds]

Two thirds apparently. And wasn't it the Waves we ruled?

my history never was very good

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Ukraine destroys Putin’s parade boat with laser-guided bomb

Ukraine’s armed forces has said that a Russian “parade boat” used by Vladimir Putin to inspect naval fleets has been destroyed. The Raptor...

www.emmanuelsblog.com.ng

Ukraine’s armed forces has said that a Russian “parade boat” used by Vladimir Putin to inspect naval fleets has been destroyed.



The Raptor-class patrol vessel was targeted by a laser-guided bomb dropped from a Ukraine-operated Bayraktar TB2 drone near Snake Island in the Black Sea on 8 May, the Ukrainian ministry of defence said.






Boop....

 

[JimW]

Two thirds apparently. And wasn't it the Waves we ruled?

Waives the rules.