Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[DaveCinzano]

Russian military dolphins? What the fuck are they going to do with washing machines?

Reporpoise them as undersea tanks

 

[existentialist]

Russian military dolphins? What the fuck are they going to do with washing machines?

TBF, not ALL Russian military training is focused on the liberation of allegedly fascist white goods...

 

[existentialist]

Reporpoise them as undersea tanks

<groan>

 

[Nylock]

TBF, not ALL Russian military training is focused on the liberation of allegedly fascist white power goods...

CFY

 

[cupid_stunt]

So, the UN secretary general arrives in Kyiv following his meeting with Putin, and Russia sends him a 'postcard from Moscow' in the form of hitting Kyiv with two cruise missiles whilst he's there, if that's not a massive 'fuck you' to the UN and the rest of world, I don't know what is.

 

[steeplejack]

Fascinating twitter thread that goes into exhaustive analytical detail on why the author thinks the Russians will lose out even in the more limited war aims they have set for themselves in Donbass- and vulnerable to summer counter-attack by Ukrainians. It's a very long thread but worth persisting with for it's level of deail and insight. The Russians have strength to maintain a nihilistic war of aggression against Ukrainian infrastructure, government and civilian population but whatever fantasy aims they have for Ukraine can't be achieved militarily.

The stark reality outlined here- the losses in trained personnel and materiel- make yesterday's paranoia about an offensive against Odessa and destabilising Moldova via military intrigues and false flags in Transnistria- are largely fantasy IMO. Russia doesn't have place on the map or the strategic capability to turn the screw, just an ability to annihilate everything within its field of fire.

If the "political" aims of the war- however fantastical- can't be achieved by military means, what then? I suspect, pretend that the military means have been achieved, grasp whatever scorched earth pile of bricks and rubble has been "liberated", and try somehow to move on. After all we've seen Putin's ability to ignore the reality the rest of the world lives in and convince everyone that his version of reality is the one that exists. I guess we'll see how robust "our Russian truths" are over the coming months.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Starting to think this stuff might be deliberate, 'don't try any silly moves or we will blow up the world.'

Biden’s reply to Vlad’s chest beating…

Biden has asked congress for an additional $33bn for Ukraine, including $20bn in military aid, $8.5bn in economic aid and $3.5bn in humanitarian aid.

Biden clearly thinks Putin is bluffing about the nukes. That's about half Russia's entire military budget for last year (maybe more when you account for all the theft and corruption in the Russian military).

Biden proposes $33bn to help Ukraine in war

The major increase in US support would include $20bn in military assistance, plus economic aid.

www.bbc.co.uk

Basically he’s telling Russia to have a go if they think they’re hard enough.

Easy for him to do, there’s not a hope in hell their shitty military would be able to deliver a nuke to the US. Europe on the other hand is not where Biden and his people are.

I have been on the hawkish side of things with Vlad’s nukes, I don’t think they can deliver any of them to where they’d like them to go bang. Hell of a risk though.

 

[weltweit]

I wonder how much military aid was given in other proxy situations. All I can remember was stinger missiles to the Afghans while Russia occupied Afghanistan. Anyone know the situation in other conflicts?

 

[weltweit]

Also I am worried by the apparent state of Putin, there have been reports he has a bad tremor in his hands and legs but I don't know whether to trust the reports or not. Also if true it might affect his judgement.

 

[weltweit]

Plus I wonder if this long tables business is Putin's way of socially distancing.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Also I am worried by the apparent state of Putin, there have been reports he has a bad tremor in his hands and legs but I don't know whether to trust the reports or not. Also if true it might affect his judgement.

That's not really for this thread, it's under discussion here -

Ukraine: Unsubstantiated rumours and speculation

Probably hasn't recovered from his serious back injury: https://www.latimes.com/world/la-xpm-2012-nov-30-la-fg-russia-putin-health-20121201-story.html Or maybe he was just being socially uncomfortable due to his Asperger's...

www.urban75.net

 

[The39thStep]

Also I am worried by the apparent state of Putin, there have been reports he has a bad tremor in his hands and legs but I don't know whether to trust the reports or not. Also if true it might affect his judgement.

I think you are right to be worried , he appears to be suffering from multiple ailments , and I mean multiple , ranging from treatable to terminal . Seems to be ok with covid though .

 

[SpookyFrank]

I wonder how much military aid was given in other proxy situations. All I can remember was stinger missiles to the Afghans while Russia occupied Afghanistan. Anyone know the situation in other conflicts?

Countless examples of this, ranging from blatant to supposedly deniable. Syria is what happens when you get multiple external powers with mutually exclusive objectives and contradictory alliances all throwing stuff into the pot and giving it a good old stir.

 

[maomao]

Easy for him to do, there’s not a hope in hell their shitty military would be able to deliver a nuke to the US.

I doubt they'd get planes over the US but pretty sure their Topols could hit the US from Eastern Siberia and their subs have been launching missiles fine at Ukraine. They can go anywhere, that's the point.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I doubt they'd get planes over the US but pretty sure their Topols could hit the US from Eastern Siberia and their subs have been launching missiles fine at Ukraine. They can go anywhere, that's the point.

That’s Vlad’s story. The generals responsible for maintaining and fuelling these things are look a bit shifty in their Porsches…

 

[kebabking]

Kind of funny story - there was a senior GRU officer in the 60's called Oleg Penkovsky, and he was spying for the yanks.

When Krushchov was threatening JFK with nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Penkovsky was telling CIA that the Soviet land based ballistic missile fleet was almost entirely unserviceable because the silo's had been built with dodgy concrete - and what happens when you put a space rocket in a hole in the ground that fills with water?

Unfortunately for Penkovsky he was rumbled - the official version is that he was shot. The rumour is that he was cremated alive.

 

[_Russ_]

Biden’s reply to Vlad’s chest beating…






Basically he’s telling Russia to have a go if they think they’re hard enough.

Easy for him to do, there’s not a hope in hell their shitty military would be able to deliver a nuke to the US. Europe on the other hand is not where Biden and his people are.

I have been on the hawkish side of things with Vlad’s nukes, I don’t think they can deliver any of them to where they’d like them to go bang. Hell of a risk though.

Im pretty sure they can

 

[strung out]

Fascinating twitter thread that goes into exhaustive analytical detail on why the author thinks the Russians will lose out even in the more limited war aims they have set for themselves in Donbass- and vulnerable to summer counter-attack by Ukrainians. It's a very long thread but worth persisting with for it's level of deail and insight. The Russians have strength to maintain a nihilistic war of aggression against Ukrainian infrastructure, government and civilian population but whatever fantasy aims they have for Ukraine can't be achieved militarily.

The stark reality outlined here- the losses in trained personnel and materiel- make yesterday's paranoia about an offensive against Odessa and destabilising Moldova via military intrigues and false flags in Transnistria- are largely fantasy IMO. Russia doesn't have place on the map or the strategic capability to turn the screw, just an ability to annihilate everything within its field of fire.

If the "political" aims of the war- however fantastical- can't be achieved by military means, what then? I suspect, pretend that the military means have been achieved, grasp whatever scorched earth pile of bricks and rubble has been "liberated", and try somehow to move on. After all we've seen Putin's ability to ignore the reality the rest of the world lives in and convince everyone that his version of reality is the one that exists. I guess we'll see how robust "our Russian truths" are over the coming months.

This is really good and we'll argued.

Complete thread here, which you can Google translate easily enough: Thread by @ian_matveev on Thread Reader App

 

[friedaweed]

So, the UN secretary general arrives in Kyiv following his meeting with Putin, and Russia sends him a 'postcard from Moscow' in the form of hitting Kyiv with two cruise missiles whilst he's there, if that's not a massive 'fuck you' to the UN and the rest of world, I don't know what is.

Yup. Time to bring Nena out of retirement now or get Bono to pen something along the lines of Sting's Russians.

I've sent him this to work on...

In Europe and America there's a growing feeling of hysteria
Conditioned to respond to all the threats
In the rhetorical speeches of the Soviets
Mister Putin said, "We will nuke the fuck out of you"
But we all think that you smell of poo
It'd be such an ignorant thing to do
When the summer means we can turn off you.


I've prompted Sting to call Bob Gandalf as well. Wembley in it's current carnation hasn't had a Live Aid gig yet and my bet is this time round the Sleaford Mods "I don't need a disco or two" could be the new "Another one bites the dust"

Not sure who's gonna play Migde Ure yet.

 

[steeplejack]

Not sure who's gonna play Migde Ure yet.

I’d imagine Midge himself, now living in SW England & still presenting as A Very Serious Contemporary Musician.

A charity re-make of Dancing with Tears in My Eyes can’t be far away with all this nuke bluster.

 

[Sue]

I’d imagine Midge himself, now living in SW England & still presenting as A Very Serious Contemporary Musician.

A charity re-make of Dancing with Tears in My Eyes can’t be far away with all this nuke bluster.

This means nothing to me
This means nothing to me
Oh, Odessa...

 

[Diamond]

In an interesting development, Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff, has taken personal command of one of the offensives near Izyum in the Donbas.

 

[DaveCinzano]

In an interesting development, Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff, has taken personal command of one of the offensives near Izyum in the Donbas.

Life insurance | Bank of Russia

 

[scalyboy]

Oh, what a surprise [not], Johnson fucks up yet again.

Boris Johnson ‘tempting evil’ by revealing Ukrainian soldiers trained in Poland

Former head of Polish army criticises UK prime minister for risking safety of soldiers

www.theguardian.com

Suffering Christ, what a fuckwit the man is. Churchill my arse, he is a fridge-hiding coward and a frigging liability. He should be castigated at the earliest opportunity

 

[Pickman's model]

Suffering Christ, what a fuckwit the man is. Churchill my arse, he is a fridge-hiding coward and a frigging liability. He should be castigated at the earliest opportunity

Yeh stop him having any more kids

 

[Pickman's model]

In an interesting development, Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff, has taken personal command of one of the offensives near Izyum in the Donbas.

The other option apparently a glass of vodka and a pistol with one bullet

 

[scalyboy]

Good thread from Galeotti here on why the UK's Crimea chat is potentially massively unhelpful, tbh most people in Crimea really did want to be part of Russia and most Russians agree. This is the type of thing that needs to be decided with an (internationally supervised, not the way Russia did it) referendum imo not through military means

Tory fuckwit politicians chatting unhelpful and potentially dangerous shite in an bid to appear tough just prior to elections shocker

 

[Sue]

The other option apparently a glass of vodka and a pistol with one bullet

Given his propensity for messing things up, probably best to supply more than one bullet.

 

[Aladdin]

Oh, what a surprise [not], Johnson fucks up yet again.

Boris Johnson ‘tempting evil’ by revealing Ukrainian soldiers trained in Poland

Former head of Polish army criticises UK prime minister for risking safety of soldiers

www.theguardian.com

He is a danger to the planet.
Complete arse of a treacherous leech ...
He is as dangerous as Putin and needs to be long gone.
The man is an insult to shit.

 

[Spymaster]

Oh, what a surprise [not], Johnson fucks up yet again.

Boris Johnson ‘tempting evil’ by revealing Ukrainian soldiers trained in Poland

Former head of Polish army criticises UK prime minister for risking safety of soldiers

www.theguardian.com

In fairness that's not news that's going to stop any presses.

Russian intel, when told that Ukrainian troops were being trained in Poland, responded "No shit, Sherlockski?"