Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[cupid_stunt]

So much for the claim a couple weeks ago that they were only interested in the Donbass region, as Russia starts to incorporate the Kherson Oblast into their sphere.

The southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, which Russia claims to have captured, will transition to using the rouble from 1 May, according to Russian state media.

Kirill Stremousov, the deputy chairman of the military-civilian administration of the region, told Ria Novosti that the transition would take place over a period of four months, during which the Russian rouble and the Ukrainian hryvnia will be in circulation.

After this period, the region will fully transition to using Russian currency, he added, "From May 1, we are moving into the ruble zone,” Stremousov told the outlet." LINK

The website of the Legislative Assembly of the Krasnoyarsk region in Russia has published news about its plans to “expropriate the surplus crops of farmers” in the occupied region of Kherson, Ukrainian media is reporting.

A rough Google translation appears to read: “This approach will be economically justified, given the withdrawal of many suppliers of seeds and fertiliSers from the Russian market, as well as significant costs for heat and electricity to grow their own vegetables and fruits.” LINK

 

[frogwoman]

Good thread from Galeotti here on why the UK's Crimea chat is potentially massively unhelpful, tbh most people in Crimea really did want to be part of Russia and most Russians agree. This is the type of thing that needs to be decided with an (internationally supervised, not the way Russia did it) referendum imo not through military means

 

[Chilli.s]

UK's Crimea chat is potentially massively unhelpful

Yeah it's not helpful to have idiots like Truss mouthing of and rattling sabers when a change in the power balance in Russia is a likely outcome. But as usual the government are desperate to make this all about their stance and their opinion. More destructive than helpful, should keep their narrative to condemning rather than aggression

 

[Flavour]

"expropriate the surplus crops of farmers” sounds a bit Holodomor

 

[cupid_stunt]

From that Galeotti thread, posted above by frogwoman -

To this end, I hope this is not just Truss grandstanding but an expression of at least the UK govt view, if not a Western consensus reached behind the scenes. But I am sceptical 3/

Truss does seem to have gone a bit too far there, but it does seems like the government view, although Ben Wallace was a little more reserved, being he's not a complete bloody idiot unlike Truss.

The international community believes Russia should leave Ukraine. The international community condemned Russia for its invasion of Crimea, which was illegal in 2014, [and] its invasion of Donetsk. We’ve constantly said that Russia should leave Ukraine sovereign territory, so that hasn’t changed.

There’s a long way to go before Ukraine forces are in Crimea. What I would certainly say is that we are supporting Ukraine sovereign integrity. We’ve done that all along. Now of course that includes Crimea.

First and foremost, let’s get Russia out of where they are now in its invasion plans. And help Ukraine resolve – remember the Minsk agreement which Russia has basically ripped up was all about trying to resolve those two occupied territories. But the key thing here is to continue to support Ukraine’s sovereign integrity and their ability to defend themselves. LINK

 

[existentialist]

"expropriate the surplus crops of farmers” sounds a bit Holodomor

That is exactly what came to my mind when I read that. I imagine that it will be Russia that gets to decide what "surplus" means

 

[frogwoman]

War in Ukraine: Ukrainians deported to Russia beaten and mistreated

One man says he was captured and taken over the border, where he was blindfolded and beaten.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[nogojones]

"expropriate the surplus crops of farmers” sounds a bit Holodomor

and he knows it

 

[The39thStep]

Good thread from Galeotti here on why the UK's Crimea chat is potentially massively unhelpful, tbh most people in Crimea really did want to be part of Russia and most Russians agree. This is the type of thing that needs to be decided with an (internationally supervised, not the way Russia did it) referendum imo not through military means

His stuff in The Spectator on why the west should prepare for guerilla war when/if any of Ukraine is annexed by the Russians was interesting

 

[frogwoman]

An Antiwar Voice From Russia – Ilya Budraitskis | in.gr

Interview with a well-known Russian intellectual and activist on the anti-war movement

www.in.gr

Only read the start but this looks very good

 

[emanymton]

From that Galeotti thread, posted above by frogwoman -



Truss does seem to have gone a bit too far there, but it does seems like the government view, although Ben Wallace was a little more reserved, being he's not a complete bloody idiot unlike Truss.

I think that since Russia have fucked this up so badly some in "The West" are smelling blood in the water and see this as a chance to inflict a significant strategic defeat on Russia, and possibly more importantly, on China.

But there us still a lot of uncertainty about that and how far to push it. No surprise that it is our bunch of geniuses flounder a bit on the messaging.

 

[LDC]

His stuff in The Spectator on why the west should prepare for guerilla war when/if any of Ukraine is annexed by the Russians was interesting

Have you got a link for that piece please The39thStep?

 

[Pickman's model]

There are people saying how well Boris doing with defence policy but he's nearly entirely just continuing policies that were already in place. We did early supply but it was very clear he's wanted to a) be Churchill for years and b) Frantically distract from the trashfire he's made of the UK.

He craves to be a historic figure and stride the world stage but he's got feet of clay. It also woefully ignores the role Zelensky has had in making world leaders support him.

it's not just feet of clay, brains of shit too

 

[Pickman's model]

His stuff in The Spectator on why the west should prepare for guerilla war when/if any of Ukraine is annexed by the Russians was interesting

consideration has been given to such a mite further north - see for example these papers from a 2014 conference in estonia Homeland Security Digital Library

 

[The39thStep]

Have you got a link for that piece please The39thStep?

Hopefully not paywalled

The West needs to prepare for guerrilla war in Ukraine | The Spectator

Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov warned this week that convoys of weapons being sent to Ukraine would be considered legitimate military targets by Russia. It was a deliberately ambiguous and political statement more than anything else, but it is also a useful reminder of the need...

www.spectator.co.uk

 

[Artaxerxes]

"expropriate the surplus crops of farmers” sounds a bit Holodomor

It’s full Stalin, relocate the inhabitants to incentivise growing in barren provinces

 

[editor]

War in Ukraine: Ukrainians deported to Russia beaten and mistreated

One man says he was captured and taken over the border, where he was blindfolded and beaten.

www.bbc.co.uk

Their treatment of Ukrainians is horrific. I relish the day that payback comes their way.

 

[kebabking]

Today we introduce a new level of batshit crazy....

Ukraine isn't going so well because of NATO, so we may have to demilitarise NATO.

 

[existentialist]

Today we introduce a new level of batshit crazy....

Ukraine isn't going so well because of NATO, so we may have to demilitarise NATO.

It makes GBNews look quite mainstream...

 

[frogwoman]

Starting to think this stuff might be deliberate, 'don't try any silly moves or we will blow up the world.'

 

[existentialist]

Starting to think this stuff might be deliberate, 'don't try any silly moves or we will blow up the world.'

TBF, now the myth of the invincible bear is taking a bit of a hit, it's pretty much all they've got.

It's starting to look as if the revised objective of the invasion is now "let's try and make ourselves look less stupid than we do right now"

 

[maomao]

Today we introduce a new level of batshit crazy....

Ukraine isn't going so well because of NATO, so we may have to demilitarise NATO.

Given the options he's listed they seem to have written off 'victory in Ukraine'. Very very dangerous.

 

[Pickman's model]

Today we introduce a new level of batshit crazy....

Ukraine isn't going so well because of NATO, so we may have to demilitarise NATO.

but will they find 72 virgins when they arrive in paradise?

 

[two sheds]

They'll presumably find all the batshit american christians who are praying for the same thing.

 

[Ax^]

Starting to think this stuff might be deliberate, 'don't try any silly moves or we will blow up the world.'

has it not be his motto since the start

 

[kebabking]

has it not be his motto since the start

Michael Clarke from RUSI was on R4 today, and he noted that Putin hasn't made a foreign policy speech in 7 years that didn't mention Russia's nuclear weapons arsenal.

The trick is determining what is an apparently successful cock to wave, and what is a genuine belief that he could use nukes and be certain that they wouldn't be used in return.

 

[Pickman's model]

Michael Clarke from RUSI was on R4 today, and he noted that Putin hasn't made a foreign policy speech in 7 years that didn't mention Russia's nuclear weapons arsenal.

The trick is determining what is an apparently successful cock to wave, and what is a genuine belief that he could use nukes and be certain that they wouldn't be used in return.

someone should tell him he's become something of a pub bore

 

[elbows]

Starting to think this stuff might be deliberate, 'don't try any silly moves or we will blow up the world.'

Thats always been a big chunk of the logic of mutally assured destruction. We're just being treated to variations of this theme. Since in this respect the entire atomic age has been bonkers, the difficulty is in telling the difference between incredible rhetoric that wont go further than words, and genuine escalations that could actually lead us to the brink.

Rhetoric from all sides has ramped up since I last discussed this subject. It is therefore tempting to claim that the risk of nuclear war has increased, especially since Russia may need a new way to restore military 'prestige' (fear) and save face in this conflict. However in other ways things seem even more like a theatre of the absurd than before, and so part of me still struggles to take nuclear threats seriously.

 

[frogwoman]

someone should tell him he's become something of a pub bore

Preferably not in a pub in Salisbury tho

 

[Pickman's model]

Preferably not in a pub in Salisbury tho

don't accept if he offers you a tea