Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Brainaddict]

Here's a link to that interesting article - U.S. intel helped Ukraine protect air defenses, shoot down Russian plane carrying hundreds of troops

That's interesting. Helps explain why Russia didn't get the total air dominance we expected, which was one of the surprises of the early stage of the war.

 

[frogwoman]

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t.me

According to this Transnistrian Telegram channel, Transnistrians have been sent fake texts purporting to be from the president about an upcoming referendum on joining Moldova

 

[frogwoman]

They've also been sent fake texts warning of a Ukrainian attack

 

[frogwoman]

 

[cupid_stunt]

This whole Transnistria situation is very odd.

Transnistria's internal ministry claims drones launched and shots fired from Ukraine
The interior ministry of Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria has issued a statement this morning claiming it came under attack from Ukraine.

The statement says: "Last night, several drones were seen in the sky above the village of Kolbasna, Rybnitsa region. Aircraft on the territory of Transnistria were launched from Ukraine. On the morning of 27 April, at 8:45am, shots were fired from the Ukrainian side in the direction of the Pridnestrovian settlement of Kolbasna.

The self-declared breakaway region gives itself the title the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. The ministry’s statement says that Kolbasna contains one of the largest ammunition dumps in Europe." LINK

 

[frogwoman]

Good article here

In Transnistria, controlled by pro-Russia separatists, a fear of war and a toast: 'To the death of Putin'

Insider traveled to the breakaway state of Transnistria, which Russia claims is being oppressed, days before a series of explosions there.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[frogwoman]

This latest attack might well be the Ukrainians tbh (there's reports that some attacks have come from Transnistria). But seems unlikely that they all are.

The Transnistrian authorities have been basically trying to pretend the war doesn't exist.

 

[two sheds]

Ta I was wondering why/whether the Ukrainians would be doing this.

 

[Chz]

Vice-President of Gazprom bank fled Moscow to Ukraine with his family and joined the Ukrainian resistance against Russia....he also blew the whistle that his colleague didn’t kill himself and his family, it was an assassination.

 

[IC3D]

Ukraines probably the safest place on the planet for him right now Chz

 

[frogwoman]

The Transnistrian president is saying Ukraine did it, but he also kinda has to say that because of their dependence on Russia. at the same time he's being very clear he doesn't want Transnistria involved in the war.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Vice-President of Gazprom bank fled Moscow to Ukraine with his family and joined the Ukrainian resistance against Russia....he also blew the whistle that his colleague didn’t kill himself and his family, it was an assassination.

I'm reading Kleptoia at the moment and you do have to wonder at what point the execs of these companies start saying fuck this for a laugh because literally the entire russian oligarch system and its satellite countries are just absolutely dangerously criminal and corrupt, with people falling out of favour on a whim and losing nearly everything or getting assassinated.

I guess this is about as favourable a circumstance for someone to just nope the fuck out as they'll ever get.

 

[Wilf]

I think it’ll end up going nuclear. He’s an ideological 70 year old so not a lot of skin left in the game. He’s already stated years ago he fights when cornered And is emotionally invested in the return of The Rodina. Scary times.

How Putin learned to govern from growing up in the war-torn city of St. Petersburg

At an early age, he found that projecting power was the key to survival, writes Reva Goujon.

www.marketwatch.com

My take on the possibility of nukes is that the chances of use are shrinkingly small, largely because that's always the situation. I used to do the CND demos and believe in unilateralism (still do really), but have to admit that mutually assured destruction is a thing and always was a thing. And however much Putin huffs and puffs and the West edges towards any kind of direct involvement, it still remains a thing. Even if Putin is ill or if he's failed to achieve what he wanted, the Russians are still rational.

Don't get me wrong, if the West pushes harder and if the war starts to really rebound on Putin, the nukes rhetoric will increase and we'll see all sorts of systems getting a Spring clean. But for anything beyond that, I think Russia would have to be under a real threat to itself, not just the failure of its invasion.

Feels a bit like I'm embracing the logic of nuclear weapons in saying this, but the point about having nukes is about having rather than using. And I think that's largely true with regard to battlefield nukes as well.

 

[Kaka Tim]

My take on the possibility of nukes is that the chances of use are shrinkingly small, largely because that's always the situation. I used to do the CND demos and believe in unilateralism (still do really), but have to admit that mutually assured destruction is a thing and always was a thing. And however much Putin huffs and puffs and the West edges towards any kind of direct involvement, it still remains a thing. Even if Putin is ill or if he's failed to achieve what he wanted, the Russians are still rational.

Don't get me wrong, if the West pushes harder and if the war starts to really rebound on Putin, the nukes rhetoric will increase and we'll see all sorts of systems getting a Spring clean. But for anything beyond that, I think Russia would have to be under a real threat to itself, not just the failure of its invasion.

Feels a bit like I'm embracing the logic of nuclear weapons in saying this, but the point about having nukes is about having rather than using. And I think that's largely true with regard to battlefield nukes as well.

Yeah, they went big on the nuclear scare tactics early on but it seems less effective now that the war is dragging on and its grimly normalised.

 

[Kaka Tim]

With talk of the war now in a grim attritional battle - I am wondering how long Russia can maintain its military superiority? With urkaine getting a steady stream of weapons - including heavy duty artillery - and all kinds of other related support - the longer it goes on the more it flavors them.
It takes time to replace losses of things like aircraft and tanks and trained personal (and - of course - battle ships) and a big offensive eats up a lot of ammo. Will Russia run out of things like artillery shells? They are already estimated to have used up 80% of their guided munitions already. Ukraine looks far better placed to replace losses thanks to outside support.
Basically - is it realistic for Russia to keep this war going much longer? The big push in the east is making slow progress and may well grind to a halt - especially if Russia cant maintain its present offensive intensity. Their strategy seems very much like a desperate push to grab as much as they can before trying to force a "peace". But Ukraine may well be in a position to tell them to fuck off.
It may be they end having to think about protecting their 2014 land grab - let alone adding to it. The increasingly belligerent tone from the US seems to be saying "we will back Ukraine for the long haul" as well as hinting that retaking the Crimea would be a legitimate aim - which would be seen by Russia as an attack on its sovereign territory so nukes might come more into the equation.
Also - post war Crimea may be quite a thing - anyone know what the people living there feel about continuing to enjoy vlad's loving embrace? Has there been any pro-urkainain demos or sabotage there?

 

[maomao]

And however much Putin huffs and puffs and the West edges towards any kind of direct involvement, it still remains a thing. Even if Putin is ill or if he's failed to achieve what he wanted, the Russians are still rational.

I don't think it's particularly likely at this moment but could be more likely when things get bad for Russia. Look what Goebbels did to his family when things were getting bad for him at the end of ww2. When the economy and military are on the point of collapsing they may well become desperate and do things that would seem irrational at this point.

 

[Diamond]

The latest Sushko KGB whistleblower letter is all about how Kadyrov is now perfectly positioned for a Russian civil war:



In short, he has negotiated his best troops out of the fighting proper (most were never the tip of the spear anyway) and consequently has the freshest, best equipped supply of fighting men in Russia - all of whom are under his direct, personal command.

He also seems to be playing a very shrewd game, knowing that he is, at the very least, now a Kingmaker, so strong is he.

 

[frogwoman]

The latest Sushko KGB whistleblower letter is all about how Kadyrov is now perfectly positioned for a Russian civil war:



In short, he has negotiated his best troops out of the fighting proper (most were never the tip of the spear anyway) and consequently has the freshest, best equipped supply of fighting men in Russia - all of whom are under his direct, personal command.

He also seems to be playing a very shrewd game, knowing that he is, at the very least, now a Kingmaker, so strong is he.

How would he benefit from a civil war tho? The Russian war hawks are too racist to put him in charge if anything happens to Vlad, and if there's a civil war in Russia he might end up being killed by the Chechen people themselves

 

[maomao]

if there's a civil war in Russia he might end up being killed by the Chechen people themselves

One would hope so anyway.

Any chance of any of the other republics kicking off?

 

[frogwoman]

I could be wrong (i didnt think he was going to invade lol) but don't buy this stuff about Kadyrov wanting to overthrow Putin etc. His political and probably physical fate is tied to Putin, if the boss is gone he's fucked and probably dead.

 

[Wilf]

I don't think it's particularly likely at this moment but could be more likely when things get bad for Russia. Look what Goebbels did to his family when things were getting bad for him at the end of ww2. When the economy and military are on the point of collapsing they may well become desperate and do things that would seem irrational at this point.

I agree that those are the kind of scenarios where last ditch/irrational things come into play. However this conflict, while massively dangerous in a geo political sense, is currently a frustrated invasion. The tide hasn't turned even in Ukraine and we are a long way from Russia itself being threatened in any objective sense. Who knows, but my guess is that Putin himself gets booted out well before we get to red buttons.

 

[Diamond]

How would he benefit from a civil war tho? The Russian war hawks are too racist to put him in charge if anything happens to Vlad, and if there's a civil war in Russia he might end up being killed by the Chechen people themselves

There’s talk of him creating a trans-Caucasian emirate.

I don’t think you would need a huge force to execute a coup or successful civil war - they would simply need to be the most cohesive, most disciplined and most ruthless bunch out there.

He mentions the Bolsheviks as a model in the thread.

Also a sense that this is the play that maybe he has to make anyway re: internal Chechen threats.

 

[maomao]

The latest Sushko KGB whistleblower letter is all about how Kadyrov is now perfectly positioned for a Russian civil war:



In short, he has negotiated his best troops out of the fighting proper (most were never the tip of the spear anyway) and consequently has the freshest, best equipped supply of fighting men in Russia - all of whom are under his direct, personal command.

He also seems to be playing a very shrewd game, knowing that he is, at the very least, now a Kingmaker, so strong is he.

Is Sushko not widely reckoned to be a fantasist by now?

 

[Diamond]

One would hope so anyway.

Any chance of any of the other republics kicking off?

Maybe that’s what all the sabotage and clandestine stuff is - art of the possible signalling to people elsewhere.

 

[Diamond]

Is Sushko not widely reckoned to be a fantasist by now?

That’s what I thought before - not so sure recently

 

[frogwoman]

One would hope so anyway.

Any chance of any of the other republics kicking off?

I actually don't know tbh, i don't know enough about it. I'd say watch the Russian far right and various nationalists tho. There's a wide sense in which some ethnic Russians feel majority Russian areas and people are hard done by compared with the other nationalities.

Crimea is likely to kick off as well imo, probably not in the sense of wanting to be part of Ukraine again but dissatisfaction with Vlad

 

[frogwoman]

Have a look at Tatarstan as well. I don't think theres any real drive for independence but they have not been happy over the last few years

 

[LDC]

There’s talk of him creating a trans-Caucasian emirate.

I don’t think you would need a huge force to execute a coup or successful civil war - they would simply need to be the most cohesive, most disciplined and most ruthless bunch out there.

He mentions the Bolsheviks as a model in the thread.

Also a sense that this is the play that maybe he has to make anyway re: internal Chechen threats.

This stuff is better in the speculation thread tbh.

 

[frogwoman]

There’s talk of him creating a trans-Caucasian emirate.

I don’t think you would need a huge force to execute a coup or successful civil war - they would simply need to be the most cohesive, most disciplined and most ruthless bunch out there.

He mentions the Bolsheviks as a model in the thread.

Also a sense that this is the play that maybe he has to make anyway re: internal Chechen threats.

I could be wrong but tbh I don’t think he has much real support beyond sivloviki etc. If vlads money and patronage dries up his rule and support would collapse imo.

He's put most of the jihadis in prison or killed them, i doubt they'd want to support an emirate with him as an emir. He's basically a just a gangster.

 

[David Clapson]

With talk of the war now in a grim attritional battle - I am wondering how long Russia can maintain its military superiority? With urkaine getting a steady stream of weapons - including heavy duty artillery - and all kinds of other related support - the longer it goes on the more it flavors them.
It takes time to replace losses of things like aircraft and tanks and trained personal (and - of course - battle ships) and a big offensive eats up a lot of ammo. Will Russia run out of things like artillery shells? They are already estimated to have used up 80% of their guided munitions already. Ukraine looks far better placed to replace losses thanks to outside support.
Basically - is it realistic for Russia to keep this war going much longer? The big push in the east is making slow progress and may well grind to a halt - especially if Russia cant maintain its present offensive intensity. Their strategy seems very much like a desperate push to grab as much as they can before trying to force a "peace". But Ukraine may well be in a position to tell them to fuck off.
It may be they end having to think about protecting their 2014 land grab - let alone adding to it. The increasingly belligerent tone from the US seems to be saying "we will back Ukraine for the long haul" as well as hinting that retaking the Crimea would be a legitimate aim - which would be seen by Russia as an attack on its sovereign territory so nukes might come more into the equation.
Also - post war Crimea may be quite a thing - anyone know what the people living there feel about continuing to enjoy vlad's loving embrace? Has there been any pro-urkainain demos or sabotage there?

The US said it wants Russia to be significantly weakened by this war. Looks like this will happen. I wonder whether the US has any back channel communications with people who might replace Putin? And will Putin have Navalny killed?