Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[teqniq]

Good interview here:

Liberation Without Victory

In a wide-ranging conversation at his compound in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells The Atlantic what Ukraine needs to survive—and describes the price it has paid.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[AnnO'Neemus]

AJ are not a bad outlet ( from a news perspective anyway).Stuff like the Nagorno conflict was covered more widely on AJ, whilst barely getting a mention in the UK after the initial headlines

One of the strengths of Al Jazeera English is that its staff are so diverse, so multinational, multilingual and multicultural. Many of them are either originally from the countries they're reporting on, or from the wider region, or have that heritage. Whereas the BBC and CNN etc will mostly parachute in Brits and Americans, who might not even have language skills.

So AJE reporting can be more in-depth and nuanced, because they have that the language skills the knowledge and contextual information. Also, for a long time, they made a point of making and airing slightly longer 'packages' than other broadcasters, which possibly meant covering fewer stories, but doing them well. Quality has always been key.

 

[Artaxerxes]

One of the strengths of Al Jazeera English is that its staff are so diverse, so multinational, multilingual and multicultural. Many of them are either originally from the countries they're reporting on, or from the wider region, or have that heritage. Whereas the BBC and CNN etc will mostly parachute in Brits and Americans, who might not even have language skills.

So AJE reporting can be more in-depth and nuanced, because they have that the language skills the knowledge and contextual information. Also, for a long time, they made a point of making and airing slightly longer 'packages' than other broadcasters, which possibly meant covering fewer stories, but doing them well. Quality has always been key.

Sounds good, this is always the problem with 24 hour news on things like the BBC - much of the coverage is skin deep and just covers the same story for 24 hours even when nothing new has happened so you get 5-10 minute segments saying the same thing, over, and over, and over, and over again.

 

[Wilf]

Just seen this from John Sweeney saying 450 dead on the ship:

'Humiliated on land and on sea' Putin tipped for 'nasty' retaliatory attack as 450 killed

www.msn.com

It sounds like 'stuff he's heard' rather than anything definitive, but still. Oddly, the piece describes them as soldiers rather than sailors.

 

[David Clapson]

On R4 earlier there was an expert saying the loss of the Moskva only has a "marginal" effect on Russsia's capabilities, because there are other ships available to do the same job. I don't know whether he was referring to ships already in the area. The Moskva's two sister ships, the Marshal Ustinov and the Varyag, are part of other fleets but they were both seen in the Eastern Med in February.

 

[existentialist]

On R4 earlier there was an expert saying the loss of the Moskva only has a "marginal" effect on Russsia's capabilities, because there are other ships available to do the same job. I don't know whether he was referring to ships already in the area. The Moskva's two sister ships, the Marshal Ustinov and the Varyag, are part of other fleets but they were both seen in the Eastern Med in February.

Except that they're not going to be able to get into the Black Sea - I imagine you are not unfamiliar with the 1936 Montreux Convention?

 

[Pickman's model]

Except that they're not going to be able to get into the Black Sea - I imagine you are not unfamiliar with the 1936 Montreux Convention?

The list of things he's not familiar with stretches from tintagel to vladivostok. Fortunately we covered the MC in exhaustive detail earlier in the thread

 

[maomao]

On R4 earlier there was an expert saying the loss of the Moskva only has a "marginal" effect on Russsia's capabilities, because there are other ships available to do the same job. I don't know whether he was referring to ships already in the area. The Moskva's two sister ships, the Marshal Ustinov and the Varyag, are part of other fleets but they were both seen in the Eastern Med in February.

They have five guided missile frigates that do most of the same stuff without being as flagshippy.

 

[platinumsage]

The main effect of this loss on Russian Black Sea naval capability will be to scare their other ships away from the Ukrainian coast.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Intercepted communications. Russians are using a lot of regular unencrypted phones for relaying information, their secure commas equipment is shit.

 

[Wilf]

The main effect of this loss on Russian Black Sea naval capability will be to scare their other ships away from the Ukrainian coast.

George Galloway will be floating past in his bath tub.

 

[Diamond]

I thought that this was a very interesting thread arguing that the Russians are trying to make do with 2 man tank crews (when a full complement is 3), from someone who sounds like he knows what he's talking about:



This would fit neatly into the patterns of Russian failure so far.

 

[Kaka Tim]

On R4 earlier there was an expert saying the loss of the Moskva only has a "marginal" effect on Russsia's capabilities, because there are other ships available to do the same job. I don't know whether he was referring to ships already in the area. The Moskva's two sister ships, the Marshal Ustinov and the Varyag, are part of other fleets but they were both seen in the Eastern Med in February.

heard the same interview - no, it doesn't make a huge difference militarily - but he also argued that its a huge embarrassment that they cant hide from their own population. Cant imagine its going to improve the morale amongst the rest of their forces - kind of reinforces the narrative "this war is a massive cluster fuck that's going to get us all killed". Going to make the rest of their ships a lot more shy of getting close to shore as well.

 

[David Clapson]

Except that they're not going to be able to get into the Black Sea - I imagine you are not unfamiliar with the 1936 Montreux Convention?

Funnily enough I was reading about that last night. Russia, being a Black Sea state, is permitted to sail any ship except an aircraft carrier through the straits. They define their carriers as 'aircraft-carrying cruisers' to get around this.

Even if Russia was restricted by the convention, which they might be one day if they build a proper aircraft carrier, they'd probably say the 1936 convention is irrelevant because it's outdated. If Turkey threatened to enforce it the Russians would probably ttell them to stuff it and remind them that Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft over Syria

 

[David Clapson]

heard the same interview - no, it doesn't make a huge difference militarily - but he also argued that its a huge embarrassment that they cant hide from their own population. Cant imagine its going to improve the morale amongst the rest of their forces - kind of reinforces the narrative "this war is a massive cluster fuck that's going to get us all killed". Going to make the rest of their ships a lot more shy of getting close to shore as well.

5 or 6 of their ships moved further away from Ukraine soon after the mystery explosion. It was inferred that they were ordered to do it because of fears of more missiles.

 

[Cid]

Funnily enough I was reading about that last night. Russia, being a Black Sea state, is permitted to sail any ship except an aircraft carrier through the straits. They define their carriers as 'aircraft-carrying cruisers' to get around this.

Even if Russia was restricted by the convention, which they might be one day if they build a proper aircraft carrier, they'd probably say the 1936 convention is irrelevant because it's outdated. If Turkey threatened to enforce it the Russians would probably ttell them to stuff it and remind them that Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft over Syria

Those are peace time terms, during a war Turkey can close the straits to all warships (except those whose home port is in the Black sea).

 

[David Clapson]

Turkey has defined the special operation as a war, but Moscow doesn't agree.

 

[Cid]

Turkey has defined the special operation as a war, but Moscow doesn't agree.

Perhaps not, but it has shown no sign of pushing the issue as yet.

 

[kebabking]

Even if the Russians are able to recreate the capability, once they move their ships further off shore to reduce the Ukrainians ability to sink them, they are also reducing their reach within Ukraine, as well as allowing the Ukr a better chance of shooting the missiles down. It makes targeting more difficult as well - they won't be able to see, whether visually, or with radar, their targets so they'll have to rely on something else - either using their helicopter close to shore, or some convoluted targeting chain involving the Russian Air Force...

 

[David Clapson]

Perhaps not, but it has shown no sign of pushing the issue as yet.

Perhaps they didn't need to, because half a dozen of their ships transited shortly before Turkey made their statement. But now that they've lost the Moskva, could they just change the official home port of one of her sister ships to Sevastopol?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Maybe they should bring their aircraft carrier in to the field of play, if anyone has a tow rope.

 

[David Clapson]

ISTR a naval type saying that various navies went on alert when the Kuznetsov was in the North Sea and the Channel, in case she sank.

 

[Chz]

They have five guided missile frigates that do most of the same stuff without being as flagshippy.

Offensively, in launching cruise missiles and whatnot, sure. But they have nothing else with the defensive reach of the cruiser. It made a 200 mile diameter circle around it a no-fly zone. Obviously its air defence capabilities may have been overstated, but it was still a massive threat to aviation in the Black Sea and was counted on to cover the other naval assets in the area. There's nothing else even approaching it available.

 

[BCBlues]

Maybe they should bring their aircraft carrier in to the field of play, if anyone has a tow rope.

And a decent tractor

 

[David Clapson]

Reuters quotes Russian military analyst Alexander Khramchikhin: "The ship is really very old. Actually, there have been plans to scrap it for five years now. It has more status value than real combat value, and in general, had nothing to do with the current operation. It will have no effect on the course of hostilities." Factbox: The 'Moskva', Russia's lost Black Sea Fleet flagship

 

[Serge Forward]

So basically a variation on the blood libel. Now where have we heard that before?

 

[strung out]

Reuters quotes Russian military analyst Alexander Khramchikhin: "The ship is really very old. Actually, there have been plans to scrap it for five years now. It has more status value than real combat value, and in general, had nothing to do with the current operation. It will have no effect on the course of hostilities." Factbox: The 'Moskva', Russia's lost Black Sea Fleet flagship

Funny how the Russian state media was reporting that it had just been refitted to allow it to remain in service until 2040 then

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tass.com

More four dimensional mind games from Putin, I'm sure

 

[David Clapson]

More rude remarks about the Moskva here, possibly from ex-RN writers. Russian cruiser Moskva sunk in the Black Sea – assessing the implications | Navy Lookout It's a rather good read. Some extracts:

The Slava class are very handsome ships and to the casual observer, their obvious heavy armament appears to exude power. When they entered service they were certainly formidable, but 40 years later they have not received significant modernisation and their weapon and sensor fit is very outdated. Russia’s over-reaching naval ambition is not matched by its limited warship construction capacity which was further damaged by the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 where marine engines and other critical components for its navy were manufactured. There was no hope of replacing the Slava class with modern cruisers and Moskva completed a refit in 2020 that was supposed to extend her in service until 2040. (Had she not suffered this premature demise, she would have been a 61-year-old museum piece when finally retired).

The Slava class have three layers of air defence that theoretically should be capable of dealing with multiple missile attacks. 64 S-300F (NATO reporting name Grumble) area air defence missiles are carried in VLS cells amidships. 2 OSA-MA point defence missile systems (NATO reporting name Gecko) are mounted on the stern. The final layer comprises a total of 6 x AK-630 CIWS (6-barrelled 30mm Gatling guns). None of these systems could be described as modern. The distinctive dome-shaped 3R41 Volna fire control radar for the S-300F has only a 180º field of view and is antiquated when compared with Western equivalents.

The 16 P-1000 Vulkan missiles loaded with rocket fuel and 1000 kg warheads that line the sides of the Slava class appear vulnerable to secondary detonation even if struck by splinters. The large magazine for the 64 S-300F missiles behind the funnels, an early example of a vertical launch system, could also represent a major explosive risk if penetrated by a sea skimmer.

 

[Indeliblelink]

People in Berlin protesting at Die Welt's hiring of Marina Ovsyannikova

 

[Humberto]

Putin can move all the troops he wants in. If they haven't got the equipment or logistical support he's digging his own grave deeper. There are loads willing to fight and the noises are that they will be supported.