Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

Not what I'm getting at. I see a lot of "admittance to NATO" questions and discussion among talking heads. I don't see decades long disarming Ukraine questions or funding Putin's war machine questions or turning their backs on 2014 questions directed to the failed policies masterminds themselves - the ones who are still living of course.

this is what you said:

I keep looking but I can't find any interviews or comments from US and European politicians that paved that way for the situation Ukraine or Russia is in. Imagine.

i'd have thought that biden and johnson saying 'we won't go to war over ukraine' had some impact on the decision by russia to invade, leading to the position both countries are in now. if you want to chat about decades long causes perhaps start a new thread rather than using this one which is about current events

 

[Chz]

I was discussing the state of affairs on another forum that's a bit more international. And was reminded that the French elections are coming up and there's really not much choice there in terms of the approach to Ukraine:

One of the MPs of the main party in France said this of the current slate of elections: there are two Trotskyists and two Neo-fascists on the ballot (with the implication that Macron is the only sensible candidate who is polling above 5%). I can't really disagree.

Macron just wants to talk, Le Pen wants to be friends with Putin, Zemmour just has a hard-on for how Putin treats immigrants, Melenchon wants a treaty to make Ukraine a neutral country (sure, that worked really well so far), and Pecresse doesn't want to hurt poor Russians with sanctions.

Macron better make it through, otherwise we're looking at a Trump-style Russian asset at the head of the French government for the next 5 years.... Maybe the recently discovered atrocities will change the discourse a little bit, but we won't find out until a week from now when the first round is over, and when we may see a debate come up.

Personally, I'd just call Zemmour hard-core fasc and Melenchon isn't too terrible. But it's quite a choice of wankers they've got.

 

[dilute micro]

this is what you said:

i'd have thought that biden and johnson saying 'we won't go to war over ukraine' had some impact on the decision by russia to invade, leading to the position both countries are in now. if you want to chat about decades long causes perhaps start a new thread rather than using this one which is about current events

No, you missed shock and awe the same as you've missed my point here where i had to put in bold to help you.

Again, I agree on Biden and Boris but that is only a short history explanation with limited focus. I'm talking about the multiple sucessful efforts to disarm Ukraine and the Rawanda level concern over the start of the invasion. This invasion is nearly a decade old itself but fair enough. I think this would warrant a separate thread. See PM, we agree on lots of things.

 

[Pickman's model]

No, you missed shock and awe the same as you've missed my point here where i had to put in bold to help you.

Again, I agree on Biden and Boris but that is only a short history explanation with limited focus. I'm talking about the multiple sucessful efforts to disarm Ukraine and the Rawanda level concern over the start of the invasion. This invasion is nearly a decade old itself but fair enough. I think this would warrant a separate thread. See PM, we agree on lots of things.

you said (for the third time) "I keep looking but I can't find any interviews or comments from US and European politicians that paved that way for the situation Ukraine or Russia is in." not a single one. not a recent thing. not a distant thing. not any thing. i've reminded you of some: links one and two. so don't afterwards shift the goalposts. it's like the shock and awe shit you came out with, giving it the large about how 'the iraqis' were all blase about the bombing. but you've not come back and told me how the maternity hospital was a tactical target or the electricity or sewage systems. or justified the 6,200 dead - or even identified these probably mythical iraqis.

 

[dilute micro]

you said (for the third time) "I keep looking but I can't find any interviews or comments from US and European politicians that paved that way for the situation Ukraine or Russia is in." not a single one. not a recent thing. not a distant thing. not any thing. i've reminded you of some: links one and two. so don't afterwards shift the goalposts. it's like the shock and awe shit you came out with, giving it the large about how 'the iraqis' were all blase about the bombing. but you've not come back and told me how the maternity hospital was a tactical target or the electricity or sewage systems. or justified the 6,200 dead - or even identified these probably mythical iraqis.

Arguably the situation Boris and Biden are dealing with was paved long ago. But certainly they should be judged on what they do. I think for the most part the correct things have been done, namely not sending NATO in for a no fly zone and also providing military and humanitarian aid. I'm starting to feel like NATO is deliberately taking its time doling out the weapons as if it thinks it can exert control and needs to for some reason. And on your shock and awe you'll remember that my gripe was with you equating what Russia is doing with what the US did in Iraq or Afghanistan. It was the subject of intent which is something that escapes your grasp.

 

[likesfish]

Exactly the same way American GIs' in Vietnam committed atrocities on a daily basis. Repress the locals by any means necessary.

The worst atrocities happened Mai lai for example when order broke down
The unit involved blundered about losing casualties to booby traps.
Had a weak leader who was given vague orders and let his men off the leash

 

[JimW]

The worst atrocities happened Mai lai for example when order broke down
The unit involved blundered about losing casualties to booby traps.
Had a weak leader who was given vague orders and let his men off the leash

Though I read Bruce Cumings book on the Korean War and it was grim, even setting aside the murderous air campaign that levelled every town in the north:

Least known to Americans is how appallingly dirty this war was, with a sordid history of civilian slaughters amid which our ostensibly democratic ally was the worst offender, contrary to the American image of the North Koreans as fiendish terrorists. The British author Max Hastings wrote that Communist atrocities gave to the United Nations cause in Korea “a moral legitimacy that has survived to this day.”1 What then of South Korean atrocities, which historians now know were far more common.? Ironically, this disturbing experience was featured in popular magazines of the time such as Life, The Saturday Evening Post, and Collier’s, before MacArthur’s censorship descended. Then it was suppressed, buried and forgotten for half a century; still today, even to talk about it thus seems biased and unbalanced. Yet by now it is one of the best-documented aspects of the war.

And US troops contributed to the sad affair themselves too.

 

[maomao]

The worst atrocities happened Mai lai for example when order broke down
The unit involved blundered about losing casualties to booby traps.
Had a weak leader who was given vague orders and let his men off the leash

Mai Lai may have been one of the most upsetting single incidents but the US focus on bodycount as a metric for how well they were doing ensured that civilians were targeted throughout the Vietnam war. Up to two million civilians died (through actions on both sides).

 

[Pickman's model]

Arguably the situation Boris and Biden are dealing with was paved long ago. But certainly they should be judged on what they do. I think for the most part the correct things have been done, namely not sending NATO in for a no fly zone and also providing military and humanitarian aid. I'm starting to feel like NATO is deliberately taking its time doling out the weapons as if it thinks it can exert control and needs to for some reason. And on your shock and awe you'll remember that my gripe was with you equating what Russia is doing with what the US did in Iraq or Afghanistan. It was the subject of intent which is something that escapes your grasp.

none of which produces your claimed iraqis.

it's a simple, and - i thought - uncontroversial point, that the american way of war involves bombardment from afar before sending troops in. the russian way of war involves bombardment from afar before sending troops in. the americans have destroyed cities at least as effectively as the russians from the second world war to the global war on terror.

but if you are going to take issue with this perhaps you could do so with some honesty in your posts and not contributions like your

No. You're trying your hardest. Shock and awe was tactical first and bewildering second. It wasn't indiscriminately firing munitions into populated areas with civilian targets and crumbing cities to the ground. And it wasn't mass slaughter of civilians and mass graves. The Iraqis themselves said that they didn't fear the bombings because they were targeted to specific things like communications and anti-air emplacements. Yes, the American and Russian ways of war are very different, note the tools used at the very least. Complain about the money spent and then ignore the reasons why. Russia has a big third world army. At the present, they're wannabes. That may change in 20 to 30 years but right now they're pathetic.

you've yet to address issues like the bombing of the maternity hospital, the electricity system, the sewage system which rather undermine your claim the bombings were specifically targeted to things like communications and anti-air emplacements. as does the fact, often forgotten, that many thousands of unguided bombs were dropped during the major ops: rather more than 9,000 of them (https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2003/uscentaf_oif_report_30apr2003.pdf, p.11). if more people weren't killed, it was dumb luck.

 

[Petcha]

So you want Nato to bomb Moscow.

Yes, that's exactly what I said

 

[zahir]

Article about the videos of Russian prisoners.

‘Often a Russian mother has a TV for a brain’: Ukraine YouTuber films PoWs calling home

Volodymyr Zolkin says interviews cut through Putin’s lies and denies they violate Geneva conventions

www.theguardian.com

Lawyers have suggested, however, that making and sharing such recordings is likely to be in violation of the third Geneva convention, designed to protect prisoners from humiliation and risks to their safety.

“These people are crying and thanking us for what we are doing,” Zolkin said in response. “Sometimes I am asked if we are violating the Geneva conventions. It says – you can not mock the prisoners. Please tell me where the Geneva convention says that you can not do a humanitarian and peacekeeping mission.”

 

[Petcha]

The "red line" is invading a nato country. They won't "get in there" in Ukraine because it could start ww3 and nuclear war.

I appreciate WW2 predates Nato. But the moment Hitler invaded the Sutadenland that was it - war was declared. Sorry. Ive come here to Krakow trying to help with visas for people but everyone is asking why the fuck nobody is helping and just fucking sorting it out. The stories are horrendous. Just tear up the rule book and kick these fuckers out or kill the fucker behind it.

If anyone wants to come and help deal with our own shitty bureaucracy btw, please do. The forms are absurd even as someone whose first language is English. They're making it as hard as possible.

USPUK

www.uspuk.org

Drop a line if you'd like to come on that site or via PM.

 

[Pickman's model]

Just tear up the rule book and kick these fuckers out or kill the fucker behind it.

yeh. when the great powers rip up the rule book and kick fuckers out or kill the fuckers behind it then they don't just rip up the rule book for themselves, they rip it up for everyone. your well-meaning proposal may come straight from the heart but it's a recipe for letting all sorts of behaviour run riot. and not in a good way. you mean well with this but the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

your scheme would mean bombing moscow, st petersburg, belgorod, yalta and so on and on and on. does making this much bigger and much worse really seem a good idea to you?

 

[maomao]

Yes, that's exactly what I said

So what are your troops and planes going to be doing then?

 

[maomao]

But the moment Hitler invaded the Sutadenland that was it - war was declared

By who? Not any of the signatories to the Munich agreement.

 

[Petcha]

yeh. when the great powers rip up the rule book and kick fuckers out or kill the fuckers behind it then they don't just rip up the rule book for themselves, they rip it up for everyone. your well-meaning proposal may come straight from the heart but it's a recipe for letting all sorts of behaviour run riot. and not in a good way. you mean well with this but the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

your scheme would mean bombing moscow, st petersburg, belgorod, yalta and so on and on and on. does making this much bigger and much worse really seem a good idea to you?

I never said anything about bombing Russia. Just getting their vermin out of Ukraine.

 

[Petcha]

By who? Not any of the signatories to the Munich agreement.

I'm fairly sure the UK was a signatory to the Munich agreement

 

[Pickman's model]

I never said anything about bombing Russia. Just getting their vermin out of Ukraine.

you might not. but the people you want to evict russia from ukraine are not going to let their missiles and bombs fall solely on ukraine, are they.

and do you think the russians would shuffle meekly off back to kazan or wherever? do you think it beyond the bounds of possibility that they might a) send up aircraft from bases in russia or b) launch missiles against nato forces from russia?

it's a daft idea, a limited nato (or whoever) operation to chuck russia out of ukraine without anything happening beyond the borders of that unhappy country

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm fairly sure the UK was a signatory to the Munich agreement

munich 1938
we went to war over poland in 1939

chamberlain said so

 

[maomao]

I'm fairly sure the UK was a signatory to the Munich agreement

Yes. That's why they didn't declare war right after Hitler went into Sudetenland.

 

[Idris2002]

The worst atrocities happened Mai lai for example when order broke down
The unit involved blundered about losing casualties to booby traps.
Had a weak leader who was given vague orders and let his men off the leash

And that's different from Russia in Ukraine how?

 

[maomao]

Any military escalation is a bad idea at this point. Cut the gas pipe. Get the ICC investigation started. Make a fuss at the UN daily. Give the Ukranians all the weapons they can. All of that, but escalation risks turning a tragedy into an apocalypse.

 

[Petcha]

Yes. That's why they didn't declare war right after Hitler went into Sudetenland.

I'm a bit lost here. Maybe my brain is frazzled. But that's exactly what Chamberlain did isn't it (according to my GCSE history, long long time ago)? Like 20 mins after he went in?

 

[dilute micro]

none of which produces your claimed iraqis.

it's a simple, and - i thought - uncontroversial point, that the american way of war involves bombardment from afar before sending troops in. the russian way of war involves bombardment from afar before sending troops in. the americans have destroyed cities at least as effectively as the russians from the second world war to the global war on terror.

but if you are going to take issue with this perhaps you could do so with some honesty in your posts and not contributions like your

you've yet to address issues like the bombing of the maternity hospital, the electricity system, the sewage system which rather undermine your claim the bombings were specifically targeted to things like communications and anti-air emplacements. as does the fact, often forgotten, that many thousands of unguided bombs were dropped during the major ops: rather more than 9,000 of them (https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2003/uscentaf_oif_report_30apr2003.pdf, p.11). if more people weren't killed, it was dumb luck.

You're on to something talking about honesty. Your same-same view of what's happening in Ukraine was my beef. It's not that I "have yet to address issues". It's that you're purposefully conflating what is obviously intentional murder, torture and rape to US bombings in those places - hospital, embassy etc. I'm not saying it wasn't terrible but to pretend that it is the same end to end isn't correct. Even civil law makes a distinction between the two.

 

[Spymaster]

It all depends what actually happens. If the Russians use nukes they will be doing it primarily as a last ditch attempt to try and win. We have an image of a big red button that ends the world but in reality there are at least three layers to each sides nuclear forces (not the UK, we only have the underwater retribution layer) and the process could take anything from hours to weeks.

I don't think they'll use them to"try to win" per se. Or rather it'd depend on your definition of "win". They've said they'd use nukes if there was an existential threat to Russia, but kicking them out of Ukraine is not that. At the beginning of the campaign I was reticent about poking the bear unduly lest it hit back with nukes but it's now reached the point where more needs to be done.

 

[zahir]

I'm a bit lost here. Maybe my brain is frazzled. But that's exactly what Chamberlain did isn't it (according to my GCSE history, long long time ago)? Like 20 mins after he went in?

You're confusing Poland and Czechoslovakia.

 

[maomao]

I don't think they'll use them to"try to win" per se. Or rather it'd depend on your definition of "win". They've said they'd use nukes if there was an existential threat to Russia, but kicking them out of Ukraine is not that. At the beginning of the campaign I was reticent about poking the bear unduly lest it hit back with nukes but it's now reached the point where more needs to be done.

How do you kick them out of Ukraine without attacking Russian territory?

 

[Petcha]

You're confusing Poland and Czechoslovakia.

Ah. Yes. Apols.

 

[Pickman's model]

You're on to something talking about honesty. Your same-same view of what's happening in Ukraine was my beef. It's not that I "have yet to address issues". It's that you're purposefully conflating what is obviously intentional murder, torture and rape to US bombings in those places - hospital, embassy etc. I'm not saying it wasn't terrible but to pretend that it is the same end to end isn't correct. Even civil law makes a distinction between the two.

you made shite up to support your claim. there's no real way around that. as for purposely conflating claims about what is obviously intentional murder, torture and rape my lai's already been pointed to, the american record on torture is i suggest notorious - i'm astonished you didn't think of guantanamo or the black prisons or abu ghraib and hold your hand about torture. numerous, numerous intentional murders were committed by the united states in iraq and afghanistan - wedding parties, more small scale massacres than anyone can remember. the rape, well i daresay the americans not as innocent as you'd make them out eg Sexualized Violence Against Iraqi Women By US Occupying Forces | United Nations | Meaningful World from 2005

 

[Spymaster]

Any military escalation is a bad idea at this point. Cut the gas pipe. Get the ICC investigation started. Make a fuss at the UN daily. Give the Ukranians all the weapons they can. All of that, but escalation risks turning a tragedy into an apocalypse.

I was saying exactly the same 2 weeks ago. Now I'm not so sure.