Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[kebabking]

Could this be a calculated plan by the higher ups to knock back Ukrainian morale? It has an effect on anybody who's only seen the pictures. I've tried to make sense of this all day. It's done on such a scale it has to involve higher level officers.

I'm afraid it's how Russia fights wars: their doctrine is to use vast physical firepower - the Army is Artillery centric, Artillery is the main force, everything else exists to either get the guns to where they need to be, or to exploit that which the guns create - and the firepower doctrine extents to the moral fight, to overwhelm that which is not destroyed with dispair and grief.

The stuff we see, the slaying of the old, the young, the sick, the vunerable and the innocent - its not aberration or a failure of military discipline, it's the plan.

It is a deliberate, thought through operational concept. It's how they fought on the Eastern front, in Afghanistan, in Chechnya, in Syria.

 

[tim]

I Just don't seem them taking an action. I still think that in the end Russian Money, Russian oil and Russian gas will win out.

It may be some of the Eastern European countries like Poland decided to get more involved. Thinking it is better to fight Russia on Ukrainian soil rather than their own.

But who the hell knows really.

Most of Ukraine was Eastern Poland before the war and much of the population of Western Poland is descended from Poles deported from those Eastern territories and who replaced the German population which was in turn driven West.

I'm sure there are elements in the Polish right-wing government willing to do a deal to divide Ukraine up between them and Russia.

 

[YouSir]

How did we get from Russian soldiers being innocent young men who didn't even realise they were in Ukraine, to raping and murdering children within the space of 2-3 weeks?

Same way it always happens, some evil cunt sent them there, little bit of trauma and a handful of evil cunts on the ground telling them that every new atrocity is just fine.

 

[tim]

when he was mp for bethnal green and bow he was reported to sleep in a different place every night pretty much. so i don't think you'd stand much chance of getting him

What with him and Rory Stewart there were months on end when we were unable to relax on our own sofa

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

This is the guy who wrote that op ed by the way Timofei Sergeitsev / Zinoviev Club

website not currently available it seems, and very little to be gleaned from a websearch

 

[frogwoman]

OK maybe it's been hacked it was working earlier on.

 

[two sheds]

works for me

 

[zahir]

Ukrainian marines surrendering in Mariupol

 

[frogwoman]

Just seen (briefly) some very nasty videos of captured Ukrainian 'nazi' POWs on a pro Russian 'Z' account. I won't link to it.

 

[The39thStep]

What with him and Rory Stewart there were months on end when we were unable to relax on our own sofa

Those were the days

 

[tim]

Those were the days

We thought they'd never end!

 

[The39thStep]

We thought they'd never end!

I was always impressed with Rory Stewarts's offer to spend a night at people's houses but less than impressed with his failure to tackle the Streatham Rovers dog shit problem

 

[Lurdan]

works for me

And for me too, although it loads rather slowly (due to his currently raised profile I imagine). It's archived at archive.org. Looks like a project which ground to a halt some years ago.

There's an old article by him here in English on an unpleasant looking Orthodox religious site. Apparently back in 2015

He is currently working on developing a national ideology for Russia.

Another article a month ago, reprinted from his Telegram channel, is here: Ukraine – a sacral sacrifice of the West to ignite further war against Russia

He's described at that site (some kind of RT clone?):

Timothy Sergeitsev is a Russian political technologist and philosopher (representative of the methodological movement). Organized election campaigns for candidates for regional governor and mayor posts in Russia in the 1990s and 2000s and advised candidates in parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine in the 2000s. Leads since July 2014 a column at the Russian news agency RIA Novosti and together with the Russian political scientist Dmitry Kulikov the Telegram channel dtlive.

But his columns at RIA Novosti seemed to stop in 2017. There was then one article in April last year and his now famous one this week.

Frankly, at first sight he looks less like some kind of Official Mouthpiece, and more like a "Tufton Street" level shithead/grifter. However that doesn't mean that his 'thinking' isn't shared by other people, or isn't aimed at a receptive audience.

 

[frogwoman]

And for me too, although it loads rather slowly (due to his currently raised profile I imagine). It's archived at archive.org. Looks like a project which ground to a halt some years ago.

There's an old article by him here in English on an unpleasant looking Orthodox religious site. Apparently back in 2015


Another article a month ago, reprinted from his Telegram channel, is here: Ukraine – a sacral sacrifice of the West to ignite further war against Russia

He's described at that site (some kind of RT clone?):


But his columns at RIA Novosti seemed to stop in 2017. There was then one article in April last year and his now famous one this week.

Frankly, at first sight he looks less like some kind of Official Mouthpiece, and more like a "Tufton Street" level shithead/grifter. However that doesn't mean that his 'thinking' isn't shared by other people, or isn't aimed at a receptive audience.

The fact that he was published there says that they're not that averse to that 'thinking'. RIA Novosti is a news agency something like an equivalent of AP or the BBC website, its tried to appear somewhat 'factual' as opposed to the pundits on talk shows or Russia Today etc

 

[Humberto]

I'm afraid it's how Russia fights wars: their doctrine is to use vast physical firepower - the Army is Artillery centric, Artillery is the main force, everything else exists to either get the guns to where they need to be, or to exploit that which the guns create - and the firepower doctrine extents to the moral fight, to overwhelm that which is not destroyed with dispair and grief.

The stuff we see, the slaying of the old, the young, the sick, the vunerable and the innocent - its not aberration or a failure of military discipline, it's the plan.

It is a deliberate, thought through operational concept. It's how they fought on the Eastern front, in Afghanistan, in Chechnya, in Syria.

'Clear the area out' one way or another? Morale and chain of command has to be vulnerable long term. That is once resistance springs up again in a formerly quelled area. All the while with the world's media focusing on them and criticising.

 

[zahir]

Map showing the withdrawal in the north.

 

[Larry O'Hara]

View attachment 316813

your eloquence is outstanding

 

[existentialist]

your eloquence is outstanding

Maybe save the personal barbs for elsewhere, eh?

 

[likesfish]

How did we get from Russian soldiers being innocent young men who didn't even realise they were in Ukraine, to raping and murdering children within the space of 2-3 weeks?

don't give them much sleep inadequate food. Let them watch their friends die horribly. Have them have have no idea what the hell is going on.
Pretty easy to traumitise someone 24 hours of combat does it. Also Russian conscripts consider rape as an acceptable pastime

 

[nogojones]

Same way it always happens, some evil cunt sent them there, little bit of trauma and a handful of evil cunts on the ground telling them that every new atrocity is just fine.

Exactly the same way American GIs' in Vietnam committed atrocities on a daily basis. Repress the locals by any means necessary.

 

[nogojones]

Ukrainian marines surrendering in Mariupol

Some of them are wearing red rather than blue/yellow armbands?

 

[cupid_stunt]

It's sad to see those Ukrainian marines surrendering in Mariupol, posted above, I dread to think what will happen to them now, assuming they are actually Ukrainian.

Sky has been showing a mass movement of people from cities & surrounding areas, just outside of the current Russian controlled areas, heading north & west, they have seen what has happened to the likes of Mariupol, the war crimes committed in the north, and have decided to get the hell out before it's too late. The humanitarian disaster we have seen so far is about to get so much worst, both in terms of refugees, and war crimes in the east & south.

The EU is firmly split over further sanctions, especially over gas & oil, the Polish president is lashing out at both France & Germany, we have the UK, US and many EU leaders openly calling Putin a war criminal now.

Putin has got himself in a mess, is intent on grabbing as much of the east & south as he can, and destroying everything in his path, the Ukrainians did well in resisting the Russians in the north and forcing their retreat, but are struggling in the east & south. The peace talk are basically over, not that anyone could trust anything Putin says or agrees too anyway, although at least China has stepped in calling for peace.

Putin is going to keep pushing, and Ukraine is going to struggle even more against increasing Russian resources heading to the east & south, something needs to change, in order to push Putin back, ideally without NATO engaging with the Russians directly. The only answer I can see to that, as I posted yesterday, is for 'peace-keepers' to move into areas where there's no fighting to assist with both the humanitarian disaster and war crime investigations, freeing up Ukrainian resources, Putin will not like it, but I doubt he will/can react to such an operation.

It would be happening outside of the war zone, it probably wouldn't be a full NATO operation, just certain countries, there would be no logic in Putin then attacking those countries as (a) they are still not engaging directly with the Russians, and (b) to do so would drag the rest of NATO into it. And, for those reasons, he would not carry out any nuclear threat, the principle of M.A.D. that has stood up so well & for so long, still stands today.

 

[Flavour]

It's more than likely the Ukrainian forces in mariupol will be forced to surrender for lack of ammo, more than any other reason

 

[contadino]

The stuff we see, the slaying of the old, the young, the sick, the vunerable and the innocent - its not aberration or a failure of military discipline, it's the plan.

Executing males aged between 16 and 60 is also an indicator that there are already plans for a repeat visit. By killing any potential future fighters, it weakens Ukraine's ability to defend itself.

 

[cupid_stunt]

.

 

[maomao]

And, for those reasons, he would not carry out any nuclear threat, the principle of M.A.D. that has stood up so well & for so long, still stands today.

It only works if Putin believes it too. And if he cares. I'm not convinced that Putin and his cronies either have access to good quality strategic military advice or that they place a high enough value on human life anyway.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It only works if Putin believes it too. And if he cares. I'm not convinced that Putin and his cronies either have access to good quality strategic military advice or that they place a high enough value on human life anyway.

I bet they have a high value on their own lives, and those of their families.

 

[maomao]

I bet they have a high value on their own lives, and those of their families.

Yes. That's why they've spent considerable resources on an extensive bunker system.

 

[og ogilby]

Yes. That's why they've spent considerable resources on an extensive bunker system.

Many of their children live in the west.

 

[Spymaster]

I bet they have a high value on their own lives, and those of their families.

I still think there's every chance that he'd be disobeyed if he ordered a nuclear strike. He can't set them off on his own and there must be some half-reasonable generals further down the line who'd decide to throw the mad cunt in prison at that point.