Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[dilute micro]

I can't see Russia going past Ukraine as a land war because as long as Putin or Putin's mob are in charge the whole of eastern Europe will be armed to the teeth.

I think Russia's view of Europe has been that they'll be armed to the teeth for a week or two.

 

[existentialist]

i'm really struggling to see how you (and others) think that the russian army is able to go across europe raping and murdering as they go, when they seem an utter basket case. leaving aside the difficulties the russian armed forces might have overcoming any remotely competent and well-equipped opposition, the russian army seems to be broadly bereft of the sort of equipment which would allow it to go, unopposed, far beyond the borders of the baltic states or poland. to me the notion they might go on from unconquered ukraine to other invasions would be laughable if people didn't appear to think it was really on the cards: for reasons which appear to me obscure.

TBH, I'm not really sure. I suppose my reaction is driven by the fact that the Russian military is clearly hopelessly outclassed in Northern Ukraine, and even as such is able to inflict appalling carnage, both on an industrial scale, and up close and personal. You're right, as is dilute micro - by the time they've been finished with in Ukraine, I guess there won't be an awful lot left of the Russian army to go on similar rampages everywhere else. At least I sincerely hope not.

 

[Diamond]

Here we go - this is it:

Spoiler: Dead body

The thing that I thought was interesting about this is that this is also an area where earlier I had heard rumours of locals complaining about Russian soldiers spraying graffiti.

 

[existentialist]

Belarus could yet be fully integrated into the Russian Federation. Ditto South Ossetia, Abkhazia. Transnistria possibly. That lot wouldn't necessarily involve any or much fighting. Putin could still stir up trouble with Russian speaking minorities in the Baltic states. Or demand overland access to Kaliningrad.

I'd put a modest bet on pretty much all of those happening, assuming Putin ends up with any kind of functioning army after Ukraine. Which, TBF, he probably will, albeit a reputationally damaged, and rather depleted one.

 

[elbows]

TBH, I'm not really sure. I suppose my reaction is driven by the fact that the Russian military is clearly hopelessly outclassed in Northern Ukraine, and even as such is able to inflict appalling carnage, both on an industrial scale, and up close and personal. You're right, as is dilute micro - by the time they've been finished with in Ukraine, I guess there won't be an awful lot left of the Russian army to go on similar rampages everywhere else. At least I sincerely hope not.

Well they are fucking off from northern Ukraine, and a lot of the carnage likely happened during an earlier phase, when they were on the offensive rather than retreating. But certainly there are additional dangers to civilians during both orderly and disorderly withdrawals.

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv. Russian forces are completing their withdrawal, but not in good order. Ukrainian forces are continuing to clear Kyiv Oblast of isolated Russian troops left behind in the retreat, which some Ukrainian officials describe as “lost orcs.” Russian forces had attempted to conduct an orderly retreat from their positions around Kyiv with designated covering forces supported by artillery and mines to allow the main body to withdraw. The main body of Russian troops has withdrawn from the west bank of the Dnipro and is completing its withdrawal from the east bank, but the retrograde has been sufficiently disorderly that some Russian troops were left behind.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv. Russian forces are completing their withdrawal, but not in good order. Ukrainian forces are continuing to clear Kyiv Oblast of isolated Russian troops left behind in the retreat, which some Ukrainian officials describe

www.understandingwar.org

 

[likesfish]

I'd put a modest bet on pretty much all of those happening, assuming Putin ends up with any kind of functioning army after Ukraine. Which, TBF, he probably will, albeit a reputationally damaged, and rather depleted one.

Think the Poles will go come and have a go if you think your Hard enough NATO isn't going to be afraid of the Russians at all after Ukraine

 

[Dogsauce]

They shot people’s pets too.

Spoiler: Dead doggos

 

[Chz]

Think the Poles will go come and have a go if you think your Hard enough NATO isn't going to be afraid of the Russians at all after Ukraine

There's considerable overlap between Poland and Ukraine in extended families. A large part of Ukraine was Poland in living memory. They'd be chomping at the bit. NATO's task if they don't want to get dragged into it is to keep the Poles chilled out.

 

[Idris2002]

Here we go - this is it:

Spoiler: Dead body

The thing that I thought was interesting about this is that this is also an area where earlier I had heard rumours of locals complaining about Russian soldiers spraying graffiti.

It seems to me that whoever painted 1488 there also did the Live Fast slogan you can see on the left of that pic. My verdict: just some idiot kid who's heard what he think are "cool" English-language slogans.

These things not only go international, they get adapted to local conditions. I regret not taking a photo at the time, but I remember near Annadale flats in south Belfast (hardcore loyalist area) there was something like "we must preserve the loyalist community and a future for loyalist children".

 

[Idris2002]

Think the Poles will go come and have a go if you think your Hard enough NATO isn't going to be afraid of the Russians at all after Ukraine

I could actually see the Poles going "fuck this, we're going in" if this goes on much longer. What say you, Seventies Bloke Moustache?

 

[Dystopiary]

yeah, i'm sorry, i do know its nothing new or unique, its just idk the need to try to find a reason that isn't just well humans given half a chance are always monsters. Question was not appropriate for thread though.

It's understandable though. Knowing it goes on in war doesn't, and shouldn't, make it any less shocking or affecting. It wouldn't be healthy to be desensitised to this awful stuff.

 

[likesfish]

I think the US is twisting arms and promising all sorts behind closed doors to keep the poles out of it.
They have been on a full rearmament drive after most of their government died in an air crash Smolensk air disaster - Wikipedia
including militias and paramilitary groups at schools.
There are probably quite a few poles already fighting but as they can speak the language and use similar kit don't stick out as much.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I could actually see the Poles going "fuck this, we're going in" if this goes on much longer. What say you, Seventies Bloke Moustache?

And, if the Poles goes in, I think the UK will too, followed by a few others, if only as 'peace keepers' in the west & north, freeing up the Ukrainians to focus on the east & south, with a very firm warning to Russia that any attacks on the 'peace keepers' would be considered a declaration of war on those countries that have taken on that role.

 

[Nylock]

Reading stuff like this, I start thinking that, one way or another, we are going to have to grasp the nettle of some kind of direct involvement, sooner or later. And it might as well be sooner. Otherwise, Putin (et al) can simply hold the nuclear cudgel over our heads, while his military rape and murder their way across Europe. Because this is not going to stop at Ukraine.

Going by their performance vs a military that can only effectively counter tham in two areas (urban/info warfare), them trying to roll into NATO's eastern states is likely to be the military equivalent of a very large fly hitting a much larger windscreen. Ukraine has no navy to speak of and an airforce that, whilst putting up a spirited defence and keeping the skies in a relatively 'contested' state, is still hopelessly outnumbered by the RuAF. Despite these handicaps, Ukraine has effectively faought a much larger and better equipped opponent to a standstill. Even without the US getting involved the European Contingent of NATO alone would, in a conventional war (and after witnessing how hapless the invaders have been so far), fuck the Russians right up.

All Russia has is it's nukes and, after seeing what the Russians have done in occupied areas of Ukraine, it's likely that if that sabre gets rattled again to accompany a build-up on the Polish border, the response is very likely to be of the 'try it' variety.

TBH, I'm not really sure. I suppose my reaction is driven by the fact that the Russian military is clearly hopelessly outclassed in Northern Ukraine, and even as such is able to inflict appalling carnage, both on an industrial scale, and up close and personal. You're right, as is dilute micro - by the time they've been finished with in Ukraine, I guess there won't be an awful lot left of the Russian army to go on similar rampages everywhere else. At least I sincerely hope not.

They can inflict terrible damage because of their ranged artillery and land/sea-based missile capabilities vs an opponent who can't launch airstrikes against their artillery positions, has no anti-ship weaponry and who has air defences that are 'porous' to say the least. Only a completely deluded nutjob would look at what's happened in Ukraine and announce "righto lads, we're good to go!".



*ugh I hate to sound like some hopelessly jingoistic NATO fanboy but that's where we seem to be at these days =/

 

[bimble]

View attachment 317046

definitely not written by an actual nazi.

That same piece has helped lead this person to say that the line defining genicide has in his view been crossed. Not sure how much this terminology matters but the intent expressed in that officially sanctioned article (in full here Что Россия должна сделать с Украиной ) does fit.

 

[Mr Moose]

I don't really think you can read that much into that graffiti, might even have been pre war bored teenagers. There was a poorly drawn swastika for years above Budgens in Flackwell Heath

Budgens will also go into the book.

 

[nogojones]

I can't believe that someone like Biden, who's spent the past 40 years neck-deep in politics, makes "oopsies" in his speeches. He's saying what he thinks, which is both refreshing and horrifying in equal measures.

He's an old dude whose cognitive abilities ain't what they used to be. I'm more inclined to the gaff on this one.

 

[elbows]

And, if the Poles goes in, I think the UK will too, followed by a few others, if only as 'peace keepers' in the west & north, freeing up the Ukrainians to focus on the east & south, with a very firm warning to Russia that any attacks on the 'peace keepers' would be considered a declaration of war on those countries that have taken on that role.

There are only certain contexts and framing where the 'peace keeper' concept can be deployed. I cant say I've noticed anything that would enable such things soon, but maybe I've missed something? And I dont think the equation has fundamentally changed in terms of other nations getting involved with overt boots on the ground. A lot of Ukrainian forces have been focussed on the east throughout, and that will become even truer now that Russia has abandoned its plans in regards Kyiv etc.

 

[dilute micro]

The Ukrainians are remarkable people with how they've faced this full-blown invasion unblinking, determined and almost as if wearing camo and toting a rifle is a normal thing. Some of them have been fighting for the past 8 years but a good number of them haven't. It's humbling to watch. Middle-aged men and women are in the field and at their post doing things that wouldn't be expected of people their age in other countries. It seems surreal.

 

[Rimbaud]

It seems to me that whoever painted 1488 there also did the Live Fast slogan you can see on the left of that pic. My verdict: just some idiot kid who's heard what he think are "cool" English-language slogans.

These things not only go international, they get adapted to local conditions. I regret not taking a photo at the time, but I remember near Annadale flats in south Belfast (hardcore loyalist area) there was something like "we must preserve the loyalist community and a future for loyalist children".

I remember that graffiti! I used to live off Ormeau Road and walked past them regularly on the way to and from the PEC at Queens. I might even have a photo of it somewhere.

 

[elbows]

He's an old dude whose cognitive abilities ain't what they used to be. I'm more inclined to the gaff on this one.

The specific rhetoric calling for 'regime change' certainly hasnt been repeated, but todays news makes it clear that 'war criminal' and 'war crimes trial' rhetoric is very much on the table right now. Whether the USA roll back on any of that language too in time remains to be seen, perhaps not.

 

[LDC]

I want NATO to bomb George Galloway's house tbh. If only just so we can all shout 'false flag' at his tattered corpse.

I'd just like to point out this is my most popular post ever. Thanks everyone.

 

[Idris2002]

I remember that graffiti! I used to live off Ormeau Road and walked past them regularly on the way to and from the PEC at Queens. I might even have a photo of it somewhere.

So, it wasn't just a dream I had. I was living on Kandahar street and then Delhi street at the time.

 

[gawkrodger]

similar thread with slight disagreement

 

[brogdale]

I'd just like to point out this is my most popular post ever. Thanks everyone.

Gone back just to add to that tally.

 

[MickiQ]

I'd just like to point out this is my most popular post ever. Thanks everyone.

Just a shame I can't like it twice

 

[bimble]

similar thread with slight disagreement

Good thread that. The other genocide scholar was factoring in the most recent statement from official Russian news about what denazification requires, and saying that matters when deciding if the cap fits, as context about intent not just evidence of actions. Grateful for the bit where your one explains this is by no means part of all wars.

 

[Dystopiary]

From March 20th - Ukrainian MP Zhan Beleniuk here in an interview saying it is genocide. Well he's like Zelenskyy in the sense that he's got to try to get people outside Ukraine to see what's happening is as bad as it gets, and that's understandable. But his father was murdered in the Rwandan genocide, and he compares what's been happening in Ukraine to that, that it is also genocide. About 3.30 onwards:

 

[Indeliblelink]

Bellingcat debunking the Russian claims about the Bucha video being faked - moving corpses etc.

Russia’s Bucha ‘Facts’ Versus the Evidence - bellingcat

Open source evidence appears to contradict Russian claims of elaborate fakes in Ukrainian town where dead bodies were found strewn across street.

www.bellingcat.com

 

[Kaka Tim]

made the mistake of clicking on the comments on a Corbyn FB post calling for a full investigation of the atrocities and a ceasefire (similar to his Salisbury poisoning embarrassment) . Fuck me - Ive never been so disgusted at the willful stupidity of so many on "the left" - thank fuck for Urban 75. Its all "need to hear both sides/but nato/probably Azov did it/media are lying/ USA is keeping the war going for profit" ... vomit inducing