Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Kaka Tim]

You'd think that, but the evidence from the war so would suggest the Russian Army high command does not care much for their rest and regrouping

They will have to be taken to barracks, reorganised into new units with replacement officer and NCOs, re-equipped, resupplied and then moved back to the front line. That will take time - and given what we know about the efficiency of the Russian war machine - that could mean them sitting in a depot for weeks on end doing nothing.
Then you have the issue of troops who've spend the last 5 weeks in the mud and ice being blown to buggery and half starved not being mad keen on heading back for more punishment for the greater glory of vlad - so there may well be plenty of sabotage and time wasting tactics or even outright refusal to go.

 

[Pickman's model]

They will have to be taken to barracks, reorganised into new units with replacement officer and NCOs, re-equipped, resupplied and then moved back to the front line. That will take time - and given what we know about the efficiency of the Russian war machine - that could mean them sitting in a depot for weeks on end doing nothing.
Then you have the issue of troops who've spend the last 5 weeks in the mud and ice being blown to buggery and half starved not being mad keen on heading back for more punishment for the greater glory of vlad - so there may well be plenty of sabotage and time wasting tactics or even outright refusal to go.

don't think you can pop down to asda or whatnot and order up a newly minted lieutenant and sergeant, it'll take time for people to come out of officer training certainly and i'd have thought nco training before the newly refreshed units can begin to be thought of as ready to go.

 

[Nylock]

don't think you can pop down to asda or whatnot and order up a newly minted lieutenant and sergeant, it'll take time for people to come out of officer training certainly and i'd have thought nco training before the newly refreshed units can begin to be thought of as ready to go.

Going by what's been said of what passes for an NCO corps in the Russian army, an NCO can probably be ordered up pretty much immediately. LT's etc might take longer though...

 

[Pickman's model]

Going by what's been said of what passes for an NCO corps in the Russian army, an NCO can probably be ordered up pretty much immediately. LT's etc might take longer though...

anyone who read sven hassel as an impressionable youth will know that newly minted officers or little hitler ncos tend to have short lives at the front. that combat leaders who didn't respect their troops could find their greatest danger didn't come from the enemy. i wonder how many russian officers grew up on a diet of sven hassel and absorbed those lessons.

 

[emanymton]

And it's OK to say that the pro-Putin left are sympathisers and fellow travellers with fascism.

At what point do we start no-platfoming STWC?

I'm not sure if I'm joking or not.

 

[frogwoman]

Five or ten years ago.

 

[Sue]

At what point do we start no-platfoming STWC?

I'm not sure if I'm joking or not.

Not surely if the stuff on the Oxford STWC thread is a fair representation of where they're at.

 

[SpackleFrog]

At what point do we start no-platfoming STWC?

I'm not sure if I'm joking or not.

I don't think we'd be no-platforming but I do know I've already had enough of the arguments I'm having at union meetings.

It's amazing how quickly things have degenerated into "you're obsessed with NATO/Oh yeah? Well you're ignoring NATO's role in the crisis"

 

[existentialist]

Or some dodgy moonshine liberated from a barn- can be toxic if not distilled properly.

Or someone just bottled up some paraquat (or laced spirit with it) and left it lying around for the Russians to find...

 

[existentialist]

View attachment 317043

Ummm

Reading stuff like this, I start thinking that, one way or another, we are going to have to grasp the nettle of some kind of direct involvement, sooner or later. And it might as well be sooner. Otherwise, Putin (et al) can simply hold the nuclear cudgel over our heads, while his military rape and murder their way across Europe. Because this is not going to stop at Ukraine.

 

[Chilli.s]

Thats the head in the clouds ballshit that is to be expected from a faschist regime. Shocking stuff

 

[LDC]

At what point do we start no-platfoming STWC?

I'm not sure if I'm joking or not.

Yeah, I was just thinking about posting something about how we deal with this stuff 'in the scene/on the streets/in our politics' etc. on the Left/Putin lovers thread.

 

[existentialist]

Going by what's been said of what passes for an NCO corps in the Russian army, an NCO can probably be ordered up pretty much immediately. LT's etc might take longer though...

I imagine they'd just promote the most vicious conscripts, and leadership ability be damned.

 

[emanymton]

Yeah, I was just thinking about posting something about how we deal with this stuff 'in the scene/on the streets/in our politics' etc. on the Left/Putin lovers thread.

Would be a better fit for that thread.

 

[agricola]

Reading stuff like this, I start thinking that, one way or another, we are going to have to grasp the nettle of some kind of direct involvement, sooner or later. And it might as well be sooner. Otherwise, Putin (et al) can simply hold the nuclear cudgel over our heads, while his military rape and murder their way across Europe. Because this is not going to stop at Ukraine.

That is why I think peace talks have to be prioritised and engaged with much more forcefully. If that is his plan, and peace talks are a ruse then the rest of the world needs to see it.

 

[bimble]

View attachment 317046

definitely not written by an actual nazi.

that is just .
is that a 'thinkpiece' which we can assume has been State-approved?

 

[LDC]

Reading stuff like this, I start thinking that, one way or another, we are going to have to grasp the nettle of some kind of direct involvement, sooner or later. And it might as well be sooner. Otherwise, Putin (et al) can simply hold the nuclear cudgel over our heads, while his military rape and murder their way across Europe. Because this is not going to stop at Ukraine.

Yeah, I am slowly coming round to having quite a lot of sympathy with that position. How it might play out in reality I have no idea though. I also think 'the west' will hold off as long as posisble, and if it does do something it won't be as NATO, but a more fragmented version, maybe more EU dominant?

 

[agricola]

Apparently the Russians have demanded a Security Council meeting today over the killings in Bucha (which they are claiming are fake or not down to them). The UK have apparently said no (as current chair of the UNSC).

Personally I think this is a mistake to not have a meeting on it today - we should really be looking to form a resolution noting the allegations and setting up an independent investigation to look into them and then watch them block it, rather than watching Lavrov et al go around claiming we don’t want one.

 

[A380]

What's the likelihood of the alcohol poisoned soldiers having just spent their time getting completely shitfaced on looted booze (esp. spirits) and then blaming it on the Ukrainians to avoid punishment?

That explains how I felt on Sunday morning. Ukrainian special forces must have infiltrated my house and doctored my drinks on Saturday night.

 

[emanymton]

Yeah, I am slowly coming round to having quite a lot of sympathy with that position. How it might play out in reality I have no idea though. I also think 'the west' will hold off as long as posisble, and if it does do something it won't be as NATO, but a more fragmented version, maybe more EU dominant?

I Just don't seem them taking an action. I still think that in the end Russian Money, Russian oil and Russian gas will win out.

It may be some of the Eastern European countries like Poland decided to get more involved. Thinking it is better to fight Russia on Ukrainian soil rather than their own.

But who the hell knows really.

 

[contadino]

Reading stuff like this, I start thinking that, one way or another, we are going to have to grasp the nettle of some kind of direct involvement, sooner or later. And it might as well be sooner. Otherwise, Putin (et al) can simply hold the nuclear cudgel over our heads, while his military rape and murder their way across Europe. Because this is not going to stop at Ukraine.

I'd hope that the brazen nature of this stuff is enough to encourage most of the world to push for regime change in Russia. Sanctions should remain in place until it happens, and a boycott of Russian fossil fuels is now pretty much the only sizeable baton left short of military intervention.

I really would be very worried about military intervention with our current government. They're not fit for peacetime duties, let alone the demands of war.

 

[Pickman's model]

That is why I think peace talks have to be prioritised and engaged with much more forcefully. If that is his plan, and peace talks are a ruse then the rest of the world needs to see it.

peace talks are always a ruse

 

[LDC]

Apparently the Russians have demanded a Security Council meeting today over the killings in Bucha (which they are claiming are fake or not down to them). The UK have apparently said no (as current chair of the UNSC).

Personally I think this is a mistake to not have a meeting on it today - we should really be looking to form a resolution noting the allegations and setting up an independent investigation to look into them and then watch them block it, rather than watching Lavrov et al go around claiming we don’t want one.

I expect there's some pretty good logic behind saying no. Maybe a meeting gives Russia a chance to grandstand open it with a fuck tonne of wild accusations, polluting the whole thing? I bet it's something like that anyway.

 

[Pickman's model]

I expect there's some pretty good logic behind saying no. Maybe a meeting gives Russia a chance to grandstand open it with a fuck tonne of wild accusations, polluting the whole thing? I bet it's something like that anyway.

maybe they're discussing it tomorrow anyway

from the reuters link above

 

[emanymton]

maybe they're discussing it tomorrow anyway
View attachment 317050
from the reuters link above

If they are meeting tomorrow then not letting Russia dictate the timing or agenda makes sense.

 

[maomao]

If they did it before the evidence for was in (which won't take long I'd imagine) then the Russian and Ukrainian arguments would be equally unsupported.

 

[elbows]

Reading stuff like this, I start thinking that, one way or another, we are going to have to grasp the nettle of some kind of direct involvement, sooner or later. And it might as well be sooner. Otherwise, Putin (et al) can simply hold the nuclear cudgel over our heads, while his military rape and murder their way across Europe. Because this is not going to stop at Ukraine.

But what does that actually mean in practice? The sentiment is understandable but turning it into another level of direct action that is actually feasible is another matter entirely.

I dont understand that prediction of the future either. Putins nuclear threats were a reminder of how MAD is supposed to work, combined with the fact that Ukraine is not in NATO. Putin cant simply do the same thing to NATO countries without facing direct conflict with NATO, the equations are very different.

Excessive complacency is unwise and concerns are understandable, but when it comes to fears of Russia waging war deeper into Europe, it didnt make much sense to me in the first place and it certainly doesnt now. For it to make any sense Putins war with Ukraine would have needed to lay foundations which had the potential to change the equations and thinking when it comes to other countries and Russian ambitions in future. ie if the response had been weak, exposing huge European and NATO divisions, a disinterested USA, implying an unwillingness to defend eastern NATO members, to spend lots of money on defence, to put on a united show of rhetoric etc, then the game might have changed with huge implications for the future. But that isnt what happened, and then on top of that Russia also miserably failed to even achieve what it set out to in Ukraine.

Its blown up in Putins face and Russian ambitions should be much diminished as a result. There is still more than one way things could pan out in the long term but at the very least this war has been a wake up call which sends European security concerns shooting back up the agenda, which makes certain future scenarios much less likely to happen.

I guess what I'm suggesting is that going much further with direct action is not actually necessary in order for this to stop at Ukraine. It was necessary to take the threat seriously and to respond in the sort of ways we already have, and it will be necessary to maintain that stance for a long time to come. I dont think all that much more is required in order to prevent Russia from becoming emboldened about what they can get away with in future. They hit the limits of what was actually viable for them much sooner than they expected, and I doubt that lesson will ultimately end up being lost on them, on Putin and on whoever comes after Putin.

 

[frogwoman]

In Ukrainian street, a corpse with hands bound and a bullet wound to the head

A man lay sprawled by the roadside in the Ukrainian city of Bucha on Sunday, his hands tied behind his back and a bullet wound to his head, one of hundreds of local residents that officials say have been found dead in the wake of five weeks of Russian occupation.

www.reuters.com

The cloth used to bind the man's hands appeared to be a white armband. Russian troops, while they were in Bucha, required that local residents wear the armbands to identify themselves, according to one woman who was still wearing hers.

Yeah but Azov etc.

 

[Petcha]

Can someone please explain to me what the red line is that has to be crossed before 'the West' just gets in there and stops this?

A mass grave containing the bodies of at least 20 civilians including a mayor and her family has been uncovered near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv in just the latest evidence of Russian war crimes.

The pit was uncovered in woodland near the town of Motyzhyn, around 20 miles west of the city of Bucha where another mass grave has been found, and contains the bodies of local mayor Olga Sukhenko who was buried along with her husband and son, according to Ukraine's former ambassador to Austria Olexander Scherba.

Ms Sukhenko's body had been rolled into the hastily-dug pit alongside at least 19 others including families, some of whom showed signs of torture. Sukhenko was found with her fingers and arms broken, according to the mayor of the nearby town of Kopyliv, while a resident of Motyzhyn said Russian soldiers killed any Ukrainian officials who refused to collaborate.

The mayor and her family had been reported by others as kidnapped by Russians on March 23 and taken in an unknown direction.

It is the second mass grave to be uncovered behind the backs of retreating Russian troops, after a 45ft pit containing the bodies of at least 57 civilians was uncovered in Bucha - a city on the outskirts of Kyiv where hundreds of civilians have been found dead.

The grave had been dug into a grassy area to the rear of the Church of St. Andrew and Pyervozvannoho All Saints in Bucha with Serhii Kaplychnyi, head of the local rescue services, saying at least 57 civilians had been buried in the 45ft pit. Other officials put the total at nearer 300.

Satellite images taken on March 31, while Russian troops were still in control of the area, clearly show the existence of the grave - giving proof to the lie peddled by Moscow that it was dug by Ukrainian forces. Satellite firm Maxar said images taken as far back as March 10 show what appear to be preparations to construct the pit.

Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister, said Russian troops had instigated a 'deliberate massacre' in Bucha and branded them 'worse than ISIS'. Photos from the ground showed bodies left to rot alongside roads, some of them with their hands tied, others piled on top of car tyres as if to be burned. Witnesses gave horrifying accounts of torture and rape by Putin's men.

Footage released by the Ukrainian military showed what appeared to be a 'torture chamber' in a building used as a barracks by Russian troops in Bucha. The bodies of civilians were lined up against a wall in the basement, kneeling, having been killed. At least one had been shot through the knee before being killed, the military said.

Civilian survivors said some bodies left on the streets had been run over by Russian tanks and 'squashed like animal skin rugs'. Others reported seeing soldiers shoot dead elderly civilians in front of their relative

 

[Pickman's model]

Reading stuff like this, I start thinking that, one way or another, we are going to have to grasp the nettle of some kind of direct involvement, sooner or later. And it might as well be sooner. Otherwise, Putin (et al) can simply hold the nuclear cudgel over our heads, while his military rape and murder their way across Europe. Because this is not going to stop at Ukraine.

i'm really struggling to see how you (and others) think that the russian army is able to go across europe raping and murdering as they go, when they seem an utter basket case. leaving aside the difficulties the russian armed forces might have overcoming any remotely competent and well-equipped opposition, the russian army seems to be broadly bereft of the sort of equipment which would allow it to go, unopposed, far beyond the borders of the baltic states or poland. to me the notion they might go on from unconquered ukraine to other invasions would be laughable if people didn't appear to think it was really on the cards: for reasons which appear to me obscure.