Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[cupid_stunt]

I still think there's every chance that he'd be disobeyed if he ordered a nuclear strike. He can't set them off on his own and there must be some half-reasonable generals further down the line who'd decide to throw the mad cunt in prison at that point.

Agreed, I've said that same several times.

 

[maomao]

It all depends what actually happens. If the Russians use nukes they will be doing it primarily as a last ditch attempt to try and win. We have an image of a big red button that ends the world but in reality there are at least three layers to each sides nuclear forces (not the UK, we only have the underwater retribution layer) and the process could take anything from hours to weeks.

 

[a_chap]

Beyond heart-breaking

 

[nogojones]

I still think there's every chance that he'd be disobeyed if he ordered a nuclear strike. He can't set them off on his own and there must be some half-reasonable generals further down the line who'd decide to throw the mad cunt in prison at that point.

I'd like to hope so

 

[maomao]

It's nice to think that some reasonable Petrov figure would refuse to carry out orders but what if it was just one nuke as part of an escalate to deescalate plan? And what about the next day when US bombers are taking out Russian airbases on Russian soil? There probably are some cool heads around who could stop a deliberate attempt at bringing about a large scale thermo nuclear war; I'm not so sure they'd be able to if things were already spiralling out of control.

 

[Mr Moose]

It all depends what actually happens. If the Russians use nukes they will be doing it primarily as a last ditch attempt to try and win. We have an image of a big red button that ends the world but in reality there are at least three layers to each sides nuclear forces (not the UK, we only have the underwater retribution layer) and the process could take anything from hours to weeks.

Presumably Putin putting his nuclear forces on ‘high alert’ strips away a layer?

 

[maomao]

Presumably Putin putting his nuclear forces on ‘high alert’ strips away a layer?

I'm not sure that meant anything at all operationally. That was just him holding a gun to the world's head.

 

[Idris2002]

It seems to me that whoever painted 1488 there also did the Live Fast slogan you can see on the left of that pic. My verdict: just some idiot kid who's heard what he think are "cool" English-language slogans.

These things not only go international, they get adapted to local conditions. I regret not taking a photo at the time, but I remember near Annadale flats in south Belfast (hardcore loyalist area) there was something like "we must preserve the loyalist community and a future for loyalist children".

You have to fucking laugh. A participant in the "denazification" campaign wears hardcore Nazi insignia:

"

Wearing this stuff might be a sign that the wearer has not only read Mein Kampf while nodding his head in agreement, but has committed it to memory. It could also be as simple as the idiot undergraduate who wears a Che Guevara t-shirt, despite having only the vaguest idea who Guevara was (in fairness, that t-shirt was a design classic).

 

[zahir]

Ukrainian marines surrendering in Mariupol

Some of them are wearing red rather than blue/yellow armbands?

Here's a denial that the marines have surrendered so I'm not sure what to make of it.

 

[og ogilby]

Presumably Putin putting his nuclear forces on ‘high alert’ strips away a layer?

In reality it probably means they should try and stay sober if at all possible.

 

[Pickman's model]

Here's a denial that the marines have surrendered so I'm not sure what to make of it.

Badgers get everywhere

 

[Spymaster]

You have to fucking laugh. A participant in the "denazification" campaign wears hardcore Nazi insignia:

"

Wearing this stuff might be a sign that the wearer has not only read Mein Kampf while nodding his head in agreement, but has committed it to memory. It could also be as simple as the idiot undergraduate who wears a Che Guevara t-shirt, despite having only the vaguest idea who Guevara was (in fairness, that t-shirt was a design classic).

That looks like it might have been photoshopped to me. Especially the right edge of the black patch.

 

[Idris2002]

That looks like it might have been photoshopped to me. Especially the right edge of the black patch.

You mean the apparent bit of shadow on the right edge of the black patch? Looks more like it's sitting on a velcro backing, and jutting out over the edge of that backing.

 

[dilute micro]

It's nice to think that some reasonable Petrov figure would refuse to carry out orders but what if it was just one nuke as part of an escalate to deescalate plan? And what about the next day when US bombers are taking out Russian airbases on Russian soil? There probably are some cool heads around who could stop a deliberate attempt at bringing about a large scale thermo nuclear war; I'm not so sure they'd be able to if things were already spiralling out of control.

Those are the real dangers now. Keep in mind that if anything happens on land it will certainly also happen on the oceans right after if it doesn't happen there first. This ship firing on that ship can take place anywhere on the globe. It probably would not go nuclear on the water, although that is a Russian strategy because it's a logical way to take out a problematic carrier, for instance. In all likelihood what would happen is a series of conventional punches get thrown and then a pause to see what the other is doing. This would continue as each side saw fit. It's the control of all the armed forces - land, air, water - that would be a problem. I think the biggest problem is what's in Putin's head. If he really thinks he's in a position of military superiority and is squared off against weaker, weak-minded, weak resolve leadership then he may think a small tactical nuke would make them back down.

 

[frogwoman]

You have to fucking laugh. A participant in the "denazification" campaign wears hardcore Nazi insignia:

"

Wearing this stuff might be a sign that the wearer has not only read Mein Kampf while nodding his head in agreement, but has committed it to memory. It could also be as simple as the idiot undergraduate who wears a Che Guevara t-shirt, despite having only the vaguest idea who Guevara was (in fairness, that t-shirt was a design classic).

Could well be. There are real Nazis fighting for the DNR though and their troops have done shit like go house to house looking for gay and trans people. Then again could just be someone who thought it looked cool.

 

[frogwoman]

And some of the DNR's leaders have involvement in far right groups and politics back to the 90s.

 

[frogwoman]

Igor Girkin - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

This guy for instance.

 

[Spymaster]

'Bloke accepting de-nazification award whilst wearing nazi insignia (oh, and here's a crystal clear picture)' seems far too contrived to me.

 

[dilute micro]

I keep looking but I can't find any interviews or comments from US and European politicians that paved that way for the situation Ukraine or Russia is in. Imagine.

 

[Pickman's model]

I keep looking but I can't find any interviews or comments from US and European politicians that paved that way for the situation Ukraine or Russia is in. Imagine.

try changing your search terms

but i am surprised: do you honestly think that the numerous 'we will not go to war over ukraine' comments from the leaders of nato countries had no impact on, did not have an effect in forming, the current situation ukraine and russia are in?

 

[Raheem]

That looks like it might have been photoshopped to me. Especially the right edge of the black patch.

It's supposedly from Pushilin's telegram channel. I don't use telegram or I would check.

 

[dilute micro]

try changing your search terms

You have links? Seriously.

 

[rekil]

That looks like it might have been photoshopped to me. Especially the right edge of the black patch.

Video here.

Spoiler

It could be Task Force Rusich's insignia. A contingent of the Wagner mercs.

Spoiler

12ft

12ft.io

With roots in St. Petersburg’s ultranationalist and neo-Nazi scene, the group carried out reconnaissance and sabotage operations behind enemy lines in Ukraine and played a significant role in several key battles during the early part of the Donbas conflict. By Milchakov’s own account on his Vkontakte social media page, he and Petrovsky formed the group in the summer of 2014 after graduating from the “Partizan” paramilitary training program run by the Russian Imperial Legion, the fighting arm of the St. Petersburg-based and U.S. sanctioned Russian Imperial Movement.

Rusich acquired a reputation for exceptional brutality. In September 2014, Rusich attacked a column of Ukrainian volunteer fighters near the Donbas town of Metallist, killing dozens, according to Ukrainian news reports. Afterward, local sources said that Rusich members mutilated and set fire to the dead, images of which circulated on the web and became part of the group’s mythos. Throughout their 2014-2015 deployment, Milchakov, Petrovsky, and other Rusich members courted infamy, posting images of atrocities (warning: graphic) and selfies with dead bodies, according to Ukrainian media. Ukrainian human rights groups also accused the contingent of torturing prisoners of war. Rusich’s outsized social media footprint served as useful propaganda, hyping members as fearsome warriors and belying their relatively small numbers in Ukraine during the 2014-15 period.

 

[Indeliblelink]

Can't say I know anything about this poet but I thought this image was quite striking.

 

[dilute micro]

try changing your search terms

but i am surprised: do you honestly think that the numerous 'we will not go to war over ukraine' comments from the leaders of nato countries had no impact on the current situation ukraine and russia are in?

Agree entirely. However, most of the people who got us here are no longer in office. This goes back to 1990s, 2000s and 2010s.

 

[Idris2002]

rekil's link mentioned St. Petersburg's neo-nazi scene. When I was in that city, I was told that they had about 10,000 followers in the police force, and I was also warned not to go out on the street on Hitler's birthday, as I was apparently dark enough to be mistaken for a Chechen. That was the other expats saying that though, Russians thought I was nuts when I mentioned that one.

 

[Pickman's model]

You have links? Seriously.

do you honestly think that the numerous 'we will not go to war over ukraine' comments from nato and eu leaders did not play a part in creating the current shitshow? pisspoor.

 

[Pickman's model]

Agree entirely. However, most of the people who got us here are no longer in office. This goes back to 1990s, 2000s and 2010s.

if you agree entirely then i wonder why you declared you couldn't find any comments from people when there are loads from the past couple of months

 

[dilute micro]

if you agree entirely then i wonder why you declared you couldn't find any comments from people when there are loads from the past couple of months

Not what I'm getting at. I see a lot of "admittance to NATO" questions and discussion among talking heads. I don't see decades long disarming Ukraine questions or funding Putin's war machine questions or turning their backs on 2014 questions directed to the failed policies masterminds themselves - the ones who are still living of course.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not what I'm getting at. I see a lot of "admittance to NATO" questions and discussion among talking heads. I don't see decades long disarming Ukraine questions or funding Putin's war machine questions or turning their backs on 2014 questions directed to the failed policies masterminds themselves - the ones who are still living of course.

yeh i know, there are a lot of things you don't see as we established about shock and awe.