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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

I'm quite attracted to the theory that Putin gambled on getting what he wanted without going to war. The West called his bluff and this mess is the result. It's set out well in this article:



What a load of bollocks, he kept saying they weren't going to invade, which is hardly the way to go about presenting a highly credible threat.
 
What a load of bollocks, he kept saying they weren't going to invade, which is hardly the way to go about presenting a highly credible threat.
I think it's accurate. In the language of military chess and posturing moving your army to the border of another country is sending a message to the leaders of that country and to anyone in their military. Apparently Putin thought this was going to be an easy topple.
 
Fuck. I wonder if the Putin regime and its defenders will try to spin this as:
  • an isolated incident
  • fake news
  • Ukraine did it
  • Ukraine did bad things too
  • America does bad things too
  • all of the above

Wonder no more.

galloway pepe escobar fash loons ukraine.jpg

All them nutters who were squawking about phoning the hague cos a pilot got filmed have gone a bit quiet.

Eta: Galloway also pushing shithead aaron mate's line that azov did it.
 
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I think it's accurate. In the language of military chess and posturing moving your army to the border of another country is sending a message to the leaders of that country and to anyone in their military. Apparently Putin thought this was going to be an easy topple.

Of course, moving your army to the border of another country is sending a message, but for it to become a real threat, you need them to believe you are actually prepared to invade, or at very least leave them guessing, and use that in the talks earlier this year. Putin was doing exactly the opposite by telling everyone he had no intention to invade, thus deflating any threat, whilst he got his ducks lined-up ready for the invasion.

It's possible that it may have been his original plan last year, and that didn't work, so he moved forward with planning the invasion, transferring more & more resources to the border and into Belarus early this year.

There's no way he just suddenly decided to invade in the last few days before he did, as suggested in that article as a reason why 'most Russian soldiers were not told they would be invading Ukraine until the last moment (or, in some cases, not at all)', etc.

He thought invading was going to be a piece of piss, victory within a few days, hence why it was so haphazard, the planning went wrong, plain & simple.
 
The Chechens were in the area where they are now finding much of the worst stuff, it now seems.



Plenty of warning signs for this, as that Twitter thread details, but I, for one, took all that stuff - the very worst rumours about the Russians - with a big pinch of salt. Looks like it was on the money now.

Yes, blame the Muslims, and promote the fiction and that white Christian troops could not behave like that.
 
Of course, moving your army to the border of another country is sending a message, but for it to become a real threat, you need them to believe you are actually prepared to invade, or at very least leave them guessing, and use that in the talks earlier this year. Putin was doing exactly the opposite by telling everyone he had no intention to invade, thus deflating any threat, whilst he got his ducks lined-up ready for the invasion.

It's possible that it may have been his original plan last year, and that didn't work, so he moved forward with planning the invasion, transferring more & more resources to the border and into Belarus early this year.

There's no way he just suddenly decided to invade in the last few days before he did, as suggested in that article as a reason why 'most Russian soldiers were not told they would be invading Ukraine until the last moment (or, in some cases, not at all)', etc.

He thought invading was going to be a piece of piss, victory within a few days, hence why it was so haphazard, the planning went wrong, plain & simple.
Right, it was not a last minute decision. But there are signs in the movement and staging of military units that are not done for exercises and in the way they're done. That's why some predicted the invasion would indeed happen.
 
There was clearly an attempt at coercive diplomacy before actually sending the troops in because why wouldn't you try to do it without loss before committing.
 
Something to do with people not freezing to death.

Thats pretty disingenuous. They could stop buying all Russian petroleum products tomorrow without that happening. In fact several of the Baltic states have done just that!

Yes, that would make the EU probably more reliant on other dodgy regimes too. But lets not kid ourselves, theres always vested interest in business as normal. Especially in Germany where the daft green cunts got rid of the nuclear industry and started buying loads of cheap Russian gas instead.
 
Thats pretty disingenuous. They could stop buying all petroleum products tomorrow without that happening.

Yes, that would make the EU probably more reliant on other dodgy regimes too. But lets not kid ourselves, theres always vested interest in business as normal. Especially in Germany where the daft green cunts got rid of the nuclear industry and started buying loads of Russian gas instead.
There'd be loads of unforeseen consequences if they stopped buying everything based on petroleum
 
Wonder no more.

View attachment 316964

All them nutters who were squawking about phoning the hague cos a pilot got filmed have gone a bit quiet.

Eta: Galloway also pushing shithead aaron mate's line that azov did it.

Galloway has apparently shaved a Z into his kids hair.


I’m not bothering to quote anyone on this because I’m already giving him more attention than he deserves in my headspace
 
There'd be loads of unforeseen consequences if they stopped buying everything based on petroleum

edited to clarify 'Russian petroleum'.

The EU has big gas stocks and several friendly neighbours with a lot to shift as well.

Just seen Iraq now producing more oil and gas than at any time in the past 50 years. Time to get Mosul on the phone?
 
No. You're trying your hardest. :facepalm: Shock and awe was tactical first and bewildering second. It wasn't indiscriminately firing munitions into populated areas with civilian targets and crumbing cities to the ground. And it wasn't mass slaughter of civilians and mass graves. The Iraqis themselves said that they didn't fear the bombings because they were targeted to specific things like communications and anti-air emplacements. Yes, the American and Russian ways of war are very different, note the tools used at the very least. Complain about the money spent and then ignore the reasons why. Russia has a big third world army. At the present, they're wannabes. That may change in 20 to 30 years but right now they're pathetic.

Depends how dirty the war gets.. Vietnam for example...British military history as tomes of innocent slaughter.. .
 
No. You're trying your hardest. :facepalm: Shock and awe was tactical first and bewildering second. It wasn't indiscriminately firing munitions into populated areas with civilian targets and crumbing cities to the ground. And it wasn't mass slaughter of civilians and mass graves. The Iraqis themselves said that they didn't fear the bombings because they were targeted to specific things like communications and anti-air emplacements. Yes, the American and Russian ways of war are very different, note the tools used at the very least. Complain about the money spent and then ignore the reasons why. Russia has a big third world army. At the present, they're wannabes. That may change in 20 to 30 years but right now they're pathetic.

You say Collateral Damage I say Hegemony and War Crimes. The numbers of civilian deaths as a result of the Iraq war speak for themselves and if it wasn't for the foreign policy of the UK and the US we might not be in the shitstorm we're in now. It's why Russia and China and many others consider the west to be all their arse.

Where's their shock and awe now the stakes are higher?
 

You say Collateral Damage I say Hegemony and War Crimes. The numbers of civilian deaths as a result of the Iraq war speak for themselves and if it wasn't for the foreign policy of the UK and the US we might not be in the shitstorm we're in now. It's why Russia and China and many others consider the west to be all their arse.

Where's their shock and awe now the stakes are higher?
I agree with you mostly. I'm not giving the "collateral damage" line as if I don't care that people are killed. I'll only say that it is, unfortunately, a fact of war no matter what. I was taking issue with trying to make an apples to apples with no regard for intent. Anyway, there shouldn't have been a war in Iraq. And this war might have been prevented had there not been a disarming campaign for Ukraine.
 
It's April, nobody's freezing to death in Europe. Gas can be rationed and priority given to domestic heating. It's all doable. It's about desire, not feasibility

TBF I'd be amazed if they did that (though Germany has said it). I'd have thought it will be prioritised for industry, given that they do have to buy it (gas).
 
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