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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

I'm still surprised at the low level of Russia's air supremacy. I assumed they would be super-dominant in the air whatever was happening on the ground but if Ukraine is flying helicopters across the border as well as all their drone strikes then Russia's capabilities in the air have been as overrated as their capabilities on the ground.
 
I'm still surprised at the low level of Russia's air supremacy. I assumed they would be super-dominant in the air whatever was happening on the ground but if Ukraine is flying helicopters across the border as well as all their drone strikes then Russia's capabilities in the air have been as overrated as their capabilities on the ground.

Could the corruption extend to maintenance of their air defences?

Really wouldn't be surprised if some of their code or kit just doesn't work.
 
I can think of a reason the Ukrainians wouldn't admit to it: striking in Russian territory could easily be regarded (in Russia) as an escalation of the war, and as such could lead to it being politically possible to mobilise even more troops and resources against Ukraine. Better to keep it ambiguous, do the damage to the supply lines you need to but don't admit it was you.
I don't think whether Ukraine admits involvement or not will have much material impact on how Russia uses it for internal propaganda purposes tbh. If Putin wants to start saying "now it's war" he'll do that regardless.
 
Very surprised a fuel depot near the border wasn’t protected by SAM’s. It doesn’t sound like russia is as well defended as people had presumed.
 
I can think of a reason the Ukrainians wouldn't admit to it: striking in Russian territory could easily be regarded (in Russia) as an escalation of the war, and as such could lead to it being politically possible to mobilise even more troops and resources against Ukraine. Better to keep it ambiguous, do the damage to the supply lines you need to but don't admit it was you.
There's no need for them to own up to it anyway. We've all seen the videos of helicopters unleashing missiles on the fuel depot.

Ukraine did it? Looks good for Ukraine
Pissed off Russian soldiers did it? Looks good for Ukraine
Putin ordered it as a false flag attack? Looks good for Ukraine
 
I can think of a reason the Ukrainians wouldn't admit to it: striking in Russian territory could easily be regarded (in Russia) as an escalation of the war, and as such could lead to it being politically possible to mobilise even more troops and resources against Ukraine. Better to keep it ambiguous, do the damage to the supply lines you need to but don't admit it was you.
The master criminal always makes one fatal error and theirs was being caught on cctv
 
My opinion of the Russian Army has now reached the point where I would only be prepared to believe it was a false flag operation would be if they meant to hit the local kindergarten but ended up bombing the oil refinery by mistake.
 
There's no need for them to own up to it anyway. We've all seen the videos of helicopters unleashing missiles on the fuel depot.

Ukraine did it? Looks good for Ukraine
Pissed off Russian soldiers did it? Looks good for Ukraine
Putin ordered it as a false flag attack? Looks good for Ukraine
But travel to Russia is supposed to be restricted. You can't have Ukrainans flying over the border when ever they feel like it to enjoy themselves
 
They very obviously have.

US and UK intelligence has been astoundingly accurate since the start of the campaign. It's why the French have fired their intelligence chief for being a bit shit.
At the same time, if you were them and didn't have that particular inside info, it'd be exactly the sort of scenario that you could easily imagine, Kremlin can't disprove it, good propaganda either way. "Western" intel didn't need a leak to have the sense to put that out there.
 
It appears that Russia has run out of troops to attack Kyiv
I think Russia's plan at the moment is to bluff in the north and to position themselves to defend gains in the east and south. They need to maintain a threat of attack from the north so that the Ukrainians don't run off to push Donbass and Crimea. I don't think they're rounding up the rest of their army to try it all over again. They have to look impressive to be able to negotiate, not so much for the Ukrainians but to convince the West that more support for Ukraine is only postponing the inevitable and that the west should convince Ukraine to let Russia keep what they have.
 
It appears that Russia has run out of troops to attack Kyiv
I'm not sure that's the case. At least they have happy hour back though in Kyiv.

Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, has warned those who fled Ukraine’s capital at the start of the war with Russia not to return as “the risk of dying is pretty high”, even as he offered a glint of normality by partially lifting an alcohol ban.


The former world heavyweight boxing champion said he expected “huge battles” in the coming days in satellite towns and the outskirts of the city, which Russian forces have repeatedly tried but failed to encircle.


Klitschko said:


The risk of dying is pretty high, and that’s why my advice to anyone who wants to come back is: please, take a little bit more time.

Oleksiy Arestovych, a political adviser to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, echoed the mayor’s concerns.


He said Russian attacks were continuing around Kyiv and the encircled city of Chernihiv, 100 miles to the north, despite claims from the Kremlin that they were withdrawing out of respect for the ongoing peace talks.


Arestovych said:


Our troops are chasing them both to the north-west and north-east [of Kyiv], pushing the enemy away from Kyiv.

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, claimed Russian forces were planning to use a church north-west of Kyiv as a launchpad for a new assault.


The official said:


We believe the Russian military is using this staging point as part of its assault on Kyiv.

At least 2 million people – half of the city’s population – fled Kyiv in the first few weeks of the conflict as Russian troops made their way to its north-eastern edge with the intention of storming the capital and likely decapitating the government.


That plan failed, and the relaxation on Friday of the prohibition on the sale of alcohol in shops and the hospitality industry that has been imposed since 1 March had offered residents in Kyiv some glint of normality. Under the regulations, alcohol can be bought between 11am and 4pm. The initial ban had initially been imposed due to fears of public disorder.
 
False flag as a pretext for doing something in revenge makes absolutely no sense, Putin does what he wants regardless of world opinion and doesn’t need this. No excuse needed. If he wanted he could just claim Ukraine did something bad and 80% of the population would believe him anyway, the whole pretext for the invasion was largely fabricated for example.

The other use of a ‘false flag’, to make the other guys look bad and lose support from other nations, such as a fake chemical attack or attack on civilians/POWs doesn‘t work in this case either, it’s a mundane target with no reported fatalities and one fully justified in the eyes of anyone watching, Russia has just blown up a series of oil depots in Ukraine so it’s just a response in kind. It’s also hitting a military town which some of the retreating troops will likely be heading for, so will keep them on edge and anxious, disrupt plans to redeploy.

Russia also claimed a few days ago that they had destroyed all of Ukraine’s helicopters, so it’s also a bit of a fuck you in that sense too. Maybe that’s why they had the air defences off.
 
& Kyiv, especially Zelensky, shouldn’t let their guard down as RF troops withdraw. Perfect time for a hit if the leader is complacent enough to go for a walkabout acting like it’s heading back to normality. He’s a marked man.
 
18:19 Ukraine goes further with oil depot denial
As we've just seen, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he could neither confirm or deny that Ukraine attacked an oil depot in Russia. Now, Ukraine's top security official has gone further - denying Ukrainian forces were behind the attack.
Ukraine's Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov told national television: "For some reason they say that we did it, but according to our information this does not correspond to reality."
 
& Kyiv, especially Zelensky, shouldn’t let their guard down as RF troops withdraw. Perfect time for a hit if the leader is complacent enough to go for a walkabout acting like it’s heading back to normality. He’s a marked man.
Good job he's got you watching his back and advising, then.
 
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