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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Very interesting interview with Russian sociologist Greg Yudin, from the German paper Analyse und Kritik. When I first tried reading this in the original german (link is to an English version) I did wonder if this guy was Russia's answer to Mad Paul Mason. Well, he isn't that, he's just very pessimistic. He thinks VP's going to attack Poland next (good luck with that - give the Poles an opportunity to avenge Katyn? Are you sure about this, Vladimir?).


His characterisation of the VP regime as being a formerly authoritarian system that is transitioning to a totalitarian system is plausible and persuasive. However. . . I'm not sure if it's consistent with his other view that Putin has assiduously tried to make the population atomised and cynical. This doesn't fit with totalitarianism's need for fully mobilised societies. It is going to make things interesting, when the sky over Russia turns black with chickens coming home to roost, mind.
 
However. . . I'm not sure if it's consistent with his other view that Putin has assiduously tried to make the population atomised and cynical. This doesn't fit with totalitarianism's need for fully mobilised societies. It is going to make things interesting, when the sky over Russia turns black with chickens coming home to roost, mind.

I think those 2 things are maybe actually complimentary. First destroy social cohesion and solidarity, have everyone atomised and cynical and then mobilize them around a militaristic and nationalist mission? I'm not sure it's that programmatic, but I think it works.

Either way that's a very depressing and slightly terrifying article.
 
I think it's Ukraine but it occurs to me by claiming it isn't, they're trying to sow doubt in the minds of an already demoralised enemy. Not many people will doubt it is them but in the that dark corner of the mind where no-one likes to go there may be a few already paranoid and unsettled Russian officers starting to think that their own government is carrying out operations that they don't know about. Or perhaps are their own troops starting to turn on them?
 
I think it's Ukraine but it occurs to me by claiming it isn't, they're trying to sow doubt in the minds of an already demoralised enemy. Not many people will doubt it is them but in the that dark corner of the mind where no-one likes to go there may be a few already paranoid and unsettled Russian officers starting to think that their own government is carrying out operations that they don't know about. Or perhaps are their own troops starting to turn on them?
It could also plausibly be that a Russian helicopter completely fucked up.
 
If parts of the Russian army were trying to take out infrastructure to shorten the war you'd think they'd be creeping about planting bombs rather than turning up in helicopters. But it's still the second most likely explanation (after Ukraine lying).
 
Usual caveats apply re. SM bubble, propaganda etc. but there is a shit load of video coming up on Twitter now that shows enormous amounts of Russian losses North, West, East of Kyiv, and some horrible potential war crimes.

I know a lot of you see this as well but I don't know who does and who doesn't so passing it on.
 
Usual caveats apply re. SM bubble, propaganda etc. but there is a shit load of video coming up on Twitter now that shows enormous amounts of Russian losses North, West, East of Kyiv, and some horrible potential war crimes.

I know a lot of you see this as well but I don't know who does and who doesn't so passing it on.

There is moderately active discussion over on the speculation thread, so might be worth bringing up on there. Probably shouldn't be on here though (I mean not to be thread police, perfectly valid pointing it out, but think that one's better for going into the weeds).
 
There is moderately active discussion over on the speculation thread, so might be worth bringing up on there. Probably shouldn't be on here though (I mean not to be thread police, perfectly valid pointing it out, but think that one's better for going into the weeds).

I get you but there is so much of it that I think (hope) it may be an actual thing.

Never sure of which side of the thread line we're on but I put it in here because I think we're past the speculation stage.
 
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I think it's Ukraine but it occurs to me by claiming it isn't, they're trying to sow doubt in the minds of an already demoralised enemy. Not many people will doubt it is them but in the that dark corner of the mind where no-one likes to go there may be a few already paranoid and unsettled Russian officers starting to think that their own government is carrying out operations that they don't know about. Or perhaps are their own troops starting to turn on them?

It is also possible that a lot/all of their Western military aid may be supplied for use in the defensive context, only . And that their supporters may not be entirely comfortable with UKR taking an offensive initiative with these toys.
 
It is also possible that a lot/all of their Western military aid may be supplied for use in the defensive context, only . And that their supporters may not be entirely comfortable with UKR taking an offensive initiative with these toys.
Destroying a fuel depot is a defensive act.
 
Any pointers for how to find on Twitter for those of us who aren't very twitterate?

There's a load of accounts that have popped up along the way after a recommendation from kebabking for https://twitter.com/RALee85

Yes, overall clearly Ukraine biased but there just isn't the Russian equivalents that I have seen. Some of the accounts do post Russian videos, most of them are pretty respectful with the dead.





 
Destroying a fuel depot is a defensive act.

I absolutely do not disagree but I could see how NATO or EU countries could get a bit concerned if its their weapons being carried on to Russian territory

So maybe it is wiser for UKR to simply keep stumm?
 
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