strung out
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Just Pickers at the moment.
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Ah, right. That explains it.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I'm not Pickers and I'm not saying this is a false flag operation, just that imo it's a bit early to rule that out. You said you're persuaded it's Ukraine by the Ukrainian helicopters but I don't see how you can tell whose helicopters those are.
tommers
Fuck it, it's fine.
TBF flying two helicopters over 30km of Russian soil and blowing up a fuel depot does seem a bit unbelievable but there was also this a few days ago.
Fact Check: Did Ukraine strike arms depot in Russian military town?
Fact Check: Did Ukraine strike arms depot in Russian military town?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Did you read that through to the end?
tommers
Fuck it, it's fine.
yeah, why? I wasn't saying that was also Ukrainian stuff, just that there seems to be a lot of stuff going on in that town with things blowing up. Which is odd, right?
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
The Ukrainian military has proven itself to be bold, resourceful and capable of thinking outside the box, everything that the Russian military has proven that it isn't. I don't doubt they've pulled this off.
I'm also willing to bet that the Russian high command (those that haven't been assasinated by the Ukrainians or fired by Putin) is still sufficiently arrogant to imagine that the Ukrainians couldn't strike back at Russia even though Belgorod is like a few minutes flight from Ukraine.
I'm cheering these guys on more with every passing day, I'm not the only one either there are several houses round here flying Ukrainian flags.
I'm also willing to bet that the Russian high command (those that haven't been assasinated by the Ukrainians or fired by Putin) is still sufficiently arrogant to imagine that the Ukrainians couldn't strike back at Russia even though Belgorod is like a few minutes flight from Ukraine.
I'm cheering these guys on more with every passing day, I'm not the only one either there are several houses round here flying Ukrainian flags.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yeh. But this entire situation isn't exactly normal. So sure this could have been a Ukrainian attack. But it could equally have been an accident or false flag, and until more evidence one way or another emerges I'm keeping an open mind. The only official or politician who's thus far called it as a Ukrainian attack is a regional governor, not someone in Moscow or Kyiv
dilute micro
esse quam videri
It makes sense that for operational security that they wouldn't claim it yet. At this point, I think it's the Ukrainians. I'm open for any of 2 out of 3 possibilities:
1. Ukraine saw the opportunity and had the means. They have a history of attacking into Russia as they did early on with missiles.
2. Russians are attacking Russia for #because - we've heard reports of Rus on Rus forces: tank battle, FSB, Russians turning coat.
not so much open for:
3. False flag - which makes no sense. There's already a war. What would it greenlight that isn't already being done? If Russia is itching to use chemical they wouldn't need to actually damage their own strategic resources especially when failure is looming.
DaveCinzano
WATCH OUT, GEORGE, HE'S GOT A SCREWDRIVER!
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Weird reporting from the Graun here suggesting It's somehow contradictory that Russian forces are setting up ways for people to flee Mariupol but not letting in aid. I mean ... it's a siege. What part of dispersing its inhabitants where possible while starving those who remain to fight wouldn't make sense?
maomao
普費斯
Do you think the helicopters might have accidentally flown 30km over the border or that they accidentally pressed the 'fire' button when they got there?
Feels like a big turning point - taking the war into Russia.
I could certainly see a Russian military collapse on the cards now.
Still quite remote but - 7/20 generals killed, tactical retreats, enemy striking deep behind your lines at super valuable logistics - that’s an army that seems to be losing.
Trying to think of precedents for it - invasions by a corrupt force that results in destruction of that force/power..?
Classical parallels - maybe Mark Antony’s invasion of Persia?
I could certainly see a Russian military collapse on the cards now.
Still quite remote but - 7/20 generals killed, tactical retreats, enemy striking deep behind your lines at super valuable logistics - that’s an army that seems to be losing.
Trying to think of precedents for it - invasions by a corrupt force that results in destruction of that force/power..?
Classical parallels - maybe Mark Antony’s invasion of Persia?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
The only thing I was arguing was wait for confirmation. When the only evidence you have is of two silhouetted helicopters of a type used by Russia it makes sense imo to wait for further information before declaring a conclusion.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Argentina and the Falklands?
Pretty sure they've done previous raids into Russia. It may be that they can muster enough forces to do this occasionally but not enough to make a significant difference. For Ukraine to properly defeat Russia they need to able to conduct big offensive operations - like relieving Mariupol. So far they have been launching small scale but successful counter attacks and have retaken territory around Kiev. Not saying it will happen - but I do think a russian military collapse in the NE/NW is possible - we know their morale is poor and their logistics are in trouble - but they still might be able to defend positions.
Mentioned upthread that apparently the UA have more tanks then when they started thanks to the Russians abandoning so much kit .
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Mark Antony never invaded Persia. You might be thinking of crassus
maomao
普費斯
Russia hasn't actually been destroyed yet so what about Vietnam? Parallels in terms of mindless brutality and loss of civilian lives too.
DaveCinzano
WATCH OUT, GEORGE, HE'S GOT A SCREWDRIVER!
FWIW I don't think Pickman's model is being unreasonable in first seeking confirmation.
There can be a natural inclination to lean into route one 'common sense' explanations, but in fast-moving, complex yet emotionally-charged situations this doesn't always lend itself to unalloyed accuracy. The shitshow that was Urban75 on 22/7/05 would be an example of this.
There can be a natural inclination to lean into route one 'common sense' explanations, but in fast-moving, complex yet emotionally-charged situations this doesn't always lend itself to unalloyed accuracy. The shitshow that was Urban75 on 22/7/05 would be an example of this.
gosub
~#
Russia blowing up its own oil tanks REALLY doesn't make sense on any level.
JimW
支那暗杀团
False flag, it was the King of Pontus in an unmarked chariot.
editor
hiraethified
Oh come on:
Tory MPs lobby No 10 to let royal family use seized Russian superyacht
MoD officials exploring legal challenges but Boris Johnson ‘full steam ahead’ with proposalwww.theguardian.com
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
See, I can see Pickman's model's point that it's always worth being a bit sceptical about Great Triumphs, but I think the idea that this is some cunning ruse to arouse the Great Russian People in their Rightous Hatred of the Heirs of the Hitlerite Hoardes is well off kilter.
A false flag is a political operation to produce a desired result - is burning down an oil refinery going to do that? Nah, what will do that is killing 500 kids by bombing a junior school - and we know that Vlad has got the weapons grade ruthlessness to do that.
It's possible of course - and we've seen some spectacular incompetence - but only on a par with the possibility of Gillian Anderson inviting Eva Green and myself to a weekend of lusty debauchery at her Edinburgh flat.
A false flag is a political operation to produce a desired result - is burning down an oil refinery going to do that? Nah, what will do that is killing 500 kids by bombing a junior school - and we know that Vlad has got the weapons grade ruthlessness to do that.
It's possible of course - and we've seen some spectacular incompetence - but only on a par with the possibility of Gillian Anderson inviting Eva Green and myself to a weekend of lusty debauchery at her Edinburgh flat.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I'd go perhaps the Soviet invasion of Poland as a useful comparison given the way the gallant poles gave the Bolsheviks a bloody nose
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