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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Before making any attempts to seek expert opinion about this, my thought process starts along the following lines:

Red flags arise because of the use of the term 'acute radiation sickness' and because plenty of absolute bullshit propaganda involving radiation has already been used in this war. And perhaps also the number of victims described.

Acute radiation sickness wouldnt immediately ring true to me because we might expect the sort of contamination in the area to pose longer term exposure risks to health rather than anything that would manifest quite quickly in an acute manner. But there are still some limits as to the extent that I would completely and utterly dismiss such possibilities, I'd have to leave the door very slightly ajar. As I suppose there is always a chance that a far more radioactive source than typical for the zone was lurking and was accidentally stumbled upon, or that such a possibility combined with especially hapless and unlucky actions and behaviours which intensified the health threat.

There's a lot of material stored in trenches around the site... many of the earlier ones are poorly documented. Used to bury dust that spread around the area. Driving heavy vehicles around at least on the face of it would seem to have a risk of disturbing that, which presumably would be significantly more dangerous than background levels. Though yeah, no idea how that pans out in detail.
 
Another way to approach the broadest version of that topic is to consider that the nature and purpose of intelligence agencies means that they want links with almost everyone. But that the nature and extent of the links vary greatly, and do not in themselves provide a concrete guide as to the reliability of a particular source. Same goes for other state entities, state funding of causes that there is political or economic motivation to fund, etc. We can even chuck in some generalisations about the sort of entities that can be made use of more directly by specific intelligence entities. eg we know that businesses, ngos and journalistic roles can be used as cover because they come with plausible reasons for particular travel and interest in subjects and conflicts, and foster networks and information gathering. And there is always an obvious use for dissidents by external players. Then we can add a layer involving the sort of games where states are often aware of specific individuals who are suspected of holding such roles, and of suspicious funding links, but outside of dramatic escalation of tensions tend to prefer to observe rather than expose relevant individuals and organisations. But then we also have to consider that publicly accusing entities of such links is a classic propaganda technique, and that versions of this exist where the accusations have some truth to them, but also versions where the accusations are a disgusting smear with zero basis in fact.

Balancing acts around such themes arent trivial to perform, and those who become hypervigilant about such matters are at just as much risk of shitting the bed as those who are hopelessly naive. When you come to see the hidden hand everywhere, that murky world has managed to gain influence over you via a different path, has found a different way to stain your spirit, isolate you, narrow your worldview and fuck with your credibility. Effort must be placed into finding counterweights to balance against this so that you dont end up in paranoid limbo. Or ending up trusting the wrong sources just because they appear to align with your resulting worldview.

I do not have a simple guide for pulling off such a balancing act. But I suspect it at least involves setting a rather broad range of acceptable source credibilities. Dismiss out of hand only the very most extreme of sources, and find other ways to evaluate the substance that every other source offers, even those for which it is reasonable to attach some degree of suspicion. Do not ignore your suspicions, but do not allow them to block out the light or close down possibilities prematurely, or to limit you to what becomes a too narrow and well worn path with too much rigidity of thought.
Tbh given the people bellingcat focus on i would not be in the slightest surprised if there are links with British intelligence and French, American etc. However, it's a long way from my belief it's likely to being able to substantiate that. Looking on the net pretty much all the stuff claiming to document links comes from dubious backgrounds, at least all the stuff I've seen.
 
Reportedly they were digging trenches in radioactive soil. Comes from a sketchy source though, and some (claimed) nuclear physicist on Twitter reckons it’s bollocks.
I really, really hope it's bollocks. Because if it's not, they're all dead. Not tomorrow or next week, but in 5 years they're all dead. Probably leukaemia.
 
As opposed to what? Measured, balanced, unvarnished language like, to pick an example purely random, ‘dripping with propaganda’?

Might all be true. Hopefully it is. But that’s not the point. This isn’t ‘news’ or at least it is t primary news it’s part of a war. A part of a war that in, my amateur opinion, is being fought very well by the West.

In away it shouldn’t be surprising, having the biggest and best car industry in the world meant if you have to you can quickly have the biggest and best conventional arms ( the US in WW2) industry so why are people surprised that if you have the biggest and best advertising and marketing industry in the world (the West now) you wouldn’t also be good at propaganda?
Not too sure why you took expection to my post. My opinion is similar to yours in the 2nd post I quote.

Just how I phrased it I guess.
 
Tbh given the people bellingcat focus on i would not be in the slightest surprised if there are links with British intelligence and French, American etc. However, it's a long way from my belief it's likely to being able to substantiate that. Looking on the net pretty much all the stuff claiming to document links comes from dubious backgrounds, at least all the stuff I've seen.

I'm quite happy to adopt default assumptions about that sort of thing, I just impose limits to what I think the implications of such links are, or I try to bake the implications into my default assumptions. If we broadly understand what the various agendas and interests are, the balance of power, how the games are played, how propaganda works, and how to establish the appropriate degree of certainty or doubt when it comes to details of stories, then whether or not there are any intelligence links in a particular instance becomes much less important. I need a worldview that can properly take into account all the murky spheres without wasting my life trying to remove layers of murk that will probably never be lifted more than fleetingly. If I know there may be a man behind the curtain then it might be possible to suitably take that into account without having to pay attention to whether he is scratching his balls at any given moment.
 
I really, really hope it's bollocks. Because if it's not, they're all dead. Not tomorrow or next week, but in 5 years they're all dead. Probably leukaemia.

Actually thats why I listed the 'acute' bit of the radiation sickness as a potential red flag in this story. Because acute versions of radiation sickness imply they've met a very high dose of radiation in a short period of time, and death would be expected within a few days, weeks, or months depending on the detail of their symptoms.

eg the sort of stuff discussed here: CDC Radiation Emergencies | Acute Radiation Syndrome: A Fact Sheet for Physicians
 
I really, really hope it's bollocks. Because if it's not, they're all dead. Not tomorrow or next week, but in 5 years they're all dead. Probably leukaemia.
Not all of them would die. But it’s still
Shit. Depends on if their dose exceeded levels required for deterministic effects or remains in tbe probabilistic area. But again, still shit.
 
Tbh given the people bellingcat focus on i would not be in the slightest surprised if there are links with British intelligence and French, American etc. However, it's a long way from my belief it's likely to being able to substantiate that. Looking on the net pretty much all the stuff claiming to document links comes from dubious backgrounds, at least all the stuff I've seen.

Obviously links covers a wide base of possibilities from being an actual 'front' group/company through to one person in Bellingcat meeting someone in an intelligence service for an informal chat once. Either way if someone is claiming any of those things then that needs be presented with clear, specific, reliable and checkable evidence, not by someone saying that 'X is an effluent pipe for MI6, look at this dodgy website' which is playground level shit (except with possibly serious consequences) and ironically exactly the type of misinformation and conspiracy that the Russian State pushes.
 
Not all of them would die. But it’s still
Shit. Depends on if their dose exceeded levels required for deterministic effects or remains in tbe probabilistic area. But again, still shit.
If they were digging up soil, the big ones with long half-lives would be strontium and caesium. Strontium has a particular affinity for the bones, which is why I figured leukaemia would get most of them.

I get the point about acute poisoning though, elbows is right that there shouldn't be anything in the ground nearby that's still that radioactive.
 
Obviously links covers a wide base of possibilities from being an actual 'front' group/company through to one person in Bellingcat meeting someone in an intelligence service for an informal chat once. Either way if someone is claiming any of those things then that needs be presented with clear, specific, reliable and checkable evidence, not by someone saying that 'X is an effluent pipe for MI6, look at this dodgy website' which is playground level shit (except with possibly serious consequences) and ironically exactly the type of misinformation and conspiracy that the Russian State pushes.
Yeh well I have already shown that some of the evidence relied on by the kk article is at least shaky.
 
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Obviously links covers a wide base of possibilities from being an actual 'front' group/company through to one person in Bellingcat meeting someone in an intelligence service for an informal chat once. Either way if someone is claiming any of those things then that needs be presented with clear, specific, reliable and checkable evidence, not by someone saying that 'X is an effluent pipe for MI6, look at this dodgy website' which is playground level shit (except with possibly serious consequences) and ironically exactly the type of misinformation and conspiracy that the Russian State pushes.

While your general point is absolutely correct, the danger of serious consequences in this particular case is probably pretty low because of the vanishingly small chance that anyone takes anything Larry says seriously.
 
I really, really hope it's bollocks. Because if it's not, they're all dead. Not tomorrow or next week, but in 5 years they're all dead. Probably leukaemia.
I think the ‘bollocks’ claim related to them needing to be medically evacuated with acute exposure (based on the likely contamination levels), not whether the incident even happened.
 
More like German leaders saying they won't pay for the gas they have ordered. Unlikely they will get a continued supply if they carry through non payment.

Do you have a source for that? As others have pointed out the report we were discussing didn't suggest that.
 
Do you have a source for that? As others have pointed out the report we were discussing didn't suggest that.

There is no source. The argument was about payment method. I believe the contract was pay in euro and Russia tried to insist on roubles but they gave up. They now say next contracts will be in roubles but that will be part of any new contract negotiations.
 
Do you have a source for that? As others have pointed out the report we were discussing didn't suggest that.

Of course he hasn't, at no point has Germany said they would simply stop paying for Russian gas, but rather they would continue to pay with euros in accordance with the signed contracts, but Putin has been asking for payment in roubles, and now he's sign a decree that payments have to be in roubles from tomorrow.

Vladimir Putin has been talking. I have just got some flash quotes from Reuters at the moment, and the Russian president has said:
  • He has signed a decree saying foreign buyers must pay in roubles for Russian gas from 1 April, and contracts would be halted if these payments were not made.
  • He said that Western sanctions had been prepared before, and the economic war against Russia started years ago. He added that the West would try hard to find reasons for new sanctions.
  • Putin says the goal has been to undermine Russia’s development.
  • The US will make profits from global instability and solve its problems at the expense of others.
  • Europe moving to buy liquid natural gas from the US will lead to millions of job losses in Europe.

LINK
 
There is no source. The argument was about payment method. I believe the contract was pay in euro and Russia tried to insist on roubles but they gave up. They now say next contracts will be in roubles but that will be part of any new contract negotiations.

Right but they're not going to refuse to pay, they just want to pay in Euros.
 
Of course he hasn't, at no point has Germany said they would simply stop paying for Russian gas, but rather they would continue to pay with euros in accordance with the signed contracts, but Putin has been asking for payment in roubles, and now he's sign a decree that payments have to be in roubles from tomorrow.



LINK

The difference would be that that might lead to Russia refusing to supply gas rather than Germany refusing to pay.
 
Of course he hasn't, at no point has Germany said they would simply stop paying for Russian gas, but rather they would continue to pay with euros in accordance with the signed contracts, but Putin has been asking for payment in roubles, and now he's sign a decree that payments have to be in roubles from tomorrow.



LINK
Be interesting to see who blinks first on this one. Does Russia have enough pipeline capacity going East to make up the revenues by selling gas and oil to China if Germany and other EU counties do stop paying? (Where interesting equals could be fucking terrifying.)
 
The difference would be that that might lead to Russia refusing to supply gas rather than Germany refusing to pay.

Yep.

Latest update -

Germany and France have again rejected demands by Russia that European countries pay for its gas in rouble as an unacceptable breach of contracts, adding that the manoeuvre amounted to “blackmail”, Reuters report.

Speaking during a news conference, Germany economy minister Robert Habeck said he had not yet seen a new degree signed by President Valdimir Putin mandating gas payments in roubles, adding that Germany was prepared for all scenarios, including a stoppage of Russian gas flows to Europe.

French finance minister Bruno Le Maire said France and Germany rejected Russia’s demand.
 
Be interesting to see who blinks first on this one. Does Russia have enough pipeline capacity going East to make up the revenues by selling gas and oil to China if Germany and other EU counties do stop paying? (Where interesting equals could be fucking terrifying.)
Does Europe have enough gas to get through without Russia?
 
If Russia's going to cut off the gas then European governments should probably invest heavily in insulating as many houses as possible before the winter. Could probably do with some sort of campaign group to get things started. Need to get as many people's attention as possible; maybe try something headline grabbing like blocking major roads round capital cities.
 
Whilst Russian troops are very unlikely to have ARS from randomly wandering around in the Red Forest, there are certainly some hot spots in there. Having kicked it up I wouldn't fancy loitering to breathe it in or camp out there to scoff my MREs. It produced noticeably elevated readings (eg compared to background in Pripyat, or near the old sarcophagus) on a visit a few years ago, and that was just skirting the edge of it (have measured comparable levels on weapon test ranges). A lot of undecontaminated scrap from the reactor building was just dumped out that way and reactor fuel spattered around there during the accident itself; that area has never been cleaned up properly. You could potentially accumulate 3-digit mSv (perhaps worse) exposure if you were unlucky enough to hunker down in the wrong place for a few days.

Separately there are (unconfirmed) reports of waste and other radionuclear materials being disturbed/removed.

The IAEA are now in Ukraine making arrangements to provide further assistance, facilitate site inspections and monitoring.
 
re: the gas thing, some places (Reuters) are reporting that it’s going to be Gazprombank that buys the roubles, not the buyer of the gas (the buying state pays their euros into an account at that bank, Gazprombank buys roubles with it, which then buys the gas).
 
re: the gas thing, some places (Reuters) are reporting that it’s going to be Gazprombank that buys the roubles, not the buyer of the gas (the buying state pays their euros into an account at that bank, Gazprombank buys roubles with it, which then buys the gas).
Sounds like they heard about how people bought books at foyles and thought what a good idea it sounded
 
A lot of undecontaminated scrap from the reactor building was just dumped out that way and reactor fuel spattered around there during the accident itself; that area has never been cleaned up properly. You could potentially accumulate 3-digit mSv (perhaps worse) exposure if you were unlucky enough to hunker down in the wrong place for a few days.

Yeah being unlucky enough to stumble on some hotspots was what caused me to stop short of claiming the story was utterly impossible earlier.
 
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