Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[_Russ_]

Im quite willing to believe that Russians need to regroup and reinforce though are lying through their teeth that they are scaling down to be nice and negotiate
Im not at all convinced that they dont have plenty more left to throw at this.
They arent stupid and despite their well documented inflexible top to bottom command structure will have learned from the past month, I fear this is all far from over.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes, it's speculation, we should always be aware of that. Like believing the world will end in 2025. Just as an example like.

No one's saying the world will end in 2025

 

[bimble]

The Russian annual military parade day is 5th may I think, I reckon (hope) they might want to be out of this in time for that splendid display.
ETA it’s 9th may, the ‘victory day parade’.

 

[Cid]

No one's saying the world will end in 2025

we'll find out when the chinese and the americans line up for the big one in about a thousand days time (well, in 2025 which is a mite more than a thousand days away)

 

[Pickman's model]

Cid Yes we'll find out if a totalitarian state can field a modern army then. Hardly the end of the world

 

[Cid]

Cid Yes we'll find out if a totalitarian state can field a modern army then. Hardly the end of the world

Well 'the big one' between those two powers would have a fairly high chance of doing that. And either way it's daft speculation. Which hopefully it was intended as, though who knows but you?

 

[dilute micro]

There should be no negotiations. Russia should go back home. It bothers me that Ukraine will get screwed out of Crimea and Donbass. If Ukraine could pull it off, a push into those areas could change things in a major way. And I'm not talking about nukes. I don't think there is a danger of nukes now. If Ukraine could start taking territory then and only then would you see Russia truly negotiating. Russia has no place negotiating its stealing Ukrainian land.

 

[Pickman's model]

Well 'the big one' between those two powers would have a fairly high chance of doing that. And either way it's daft speculation. Which hopefully it was intended as, though who knows but you?

You'll have to wait and see

 

[emanymton]

There should be no negotiations. Russia should go back home. It bothers me that Ukraine will get screwed out of Crimea and Donbass. If Ukraine could pull it off, a push into those areas could change things in a major way. And I'm not talking about nukes. I don't think there is a danger of nukes now. If Ukraine could start taking territory then and only then would you see Russia truly negotiating. Russia has no place negotiating its stealing Ukrainian land.

I'm more worried about the people it is stealing.

 

[Cid]

There should be no negotiations. Russia should go back home. It bothers me that Ukraine will get screwed out of Crimea and Donbass. If Ukraine could pull it off, a push into those areas could change things in a major way. And I'm not talking about nukes. I don't think there is a danger of nukes now. If Ukraine could start taking territory then and only then would you see Russia truly negotiating. Russia has no place negotiating its stealing Ukrainian land.

This we really can't know though. Russian army may (emphasis on may) be spent as an invasion force capable of taking Kyiv (again, blurgh at armchair general speak me), but that means troops to move into the south and east. Tired, sometimes unwilling troops perhaps, but many will be put into defensive positions instead of attacking them. It changes things substantially.

 

[dilute micro]

I'm more worried about the people it is stealing.

Even more reason to go in.

 

[dilute micro]

This we really can't know though. Russian army may (emphasis on may) be spent as an invasion force capable of taking Kyiv (again, blurgh at armchair general speak me), but that means troops to move into the south and east. Tired, sometimes unwilling troops perhaps, but many will be put into defensive positions instead of attacking them. It changes things substantially.

Ukraine still has the advantage. They'll get picked apart by drones. Russia is weak and is getting weaker. They face a destruction of their army to the point they wouldn't be able to fight anybody.

 

[Kaka Tim]

This we really can't know though. Russian army may (emphasis on may) be spent as an invasion force capable of taking Kyiv (again, blurgh at armchair general speak me), but that means troops to move into the south and east. Tired, sometimes unwilling troops perhaps, but many will be put into defensive positions instead of attacking them. It changes things substantially.

Ukraine can then put more forces into those areas too and/or put pressure on Russian forces near Kiev. Also probably a lot easier for Ukraine's forces to redeploy than Russia's.

 

[_Russ_]

Ukraine still has the advantage

I probably know next to fuck all, but this is wishfull thinking to my mind, Unless the west has filled Eastern Ukraine with Patriot batteries and drones (perhaps it has) they have plenty of air assets that can operate high level and with stand off weapons out of range of manpads and AAA
I dunno, but purely militarily I just dont see Russia as being near as weakened as our propaganda machine tells us (Hope im as wrong as can be)

 

[Cid]

Ukraine still has the advantage. They'll get picked apart by drones. Russia is weak and is getting weaker. They face a destruction of their army to the point they wouldn't be able to fight anybody.

Ukraine has limited drones, Russia has a lot of troops and probably still at least some tech like jammers etc. Ukraine's army too is probably also fucked and exhausted at this point... It must have been a relentless month for them.

Ukraine can then put more forces into those areas too and/or put pressure on Russian forces near Kiev. Also probably a lot easier for Ukraine's forces to redeploy than Russia's.

They can't just withdraw from the north though. Certainly can put pressure on forces there, but that's a commitment of troops.

Look at Mariupol. To the armchair general liberating the city just requires a focused attack from Volnovakha down. It would cut off Russian forces to the west from resupply, and save tens of thousands. But there are presumably reasons this isn't possible. I would guess Russia now has well entrenched positions facing north... Resupply should be easier for them given proximity of border, Rostov etc. Presumably similar factors, though perhaps a little more limited, in occupied Donbas. This is where we really do have no idea, and where a lot will depend on how this possible/probably redeployment pans out.

I don't think redeployment for Ukraine forces is at all easy incidentally. Hundreds of miles potentially vulnerable to air attack with areas of destroyed infrastructure.

 

[dilute micro]

Ukraine has limited drones, Russia has a lot of troops and probably still at least some tech like jammers etc. Ukraine's army too is probably also fucked and exhausted at this point... It must have been a relentless month for them.



They can't just withdraw from the north though. Certainly can put pressure on forces there, but that's a commitment of troops.

Look at Mariupol. To the armchair general liberating the city just requires a focused attack from Volnovakha down. It would cut off Russian forces to the west from resupply, and save tens of thousands. But there are presumably reasons this isn't possible. I would guess Russia now has well entrenched positions facing north... Resupply should be easier for them given proximity of border, Rostov etc. Presumably similar factors, though perhaps a little more limited, in occupied Donbas. This is where we really do have no idea, and where a lot will depend on how this possible/probably redeployment pans out.

I don't think redeployment for Ukraine forces is at all easy incidentally. Hundreds of miles potentially vulnerable to air attack with areas of destroyed infrastructure.

They'll always be vulnerable to air even if the whole Ukrainian army is there. They can get more drones. Russia is about to lose its army. It cannot resupply. You cant build tanks that quickly. If they give up on the areas Russia stole they won't get them back.

 

[JimW]

Russian foreign minister due in China Thursday.

 

[Cid]

I probably know next to fuck all, but this is wishfull thinking to my mind, Unless the west has filled Eastern Ukraine with Patriot batteries and drones (perhaps it has) they have plenty of air assets that can operate high level and with stand off weapons out of range of manpads and AAA
I dunno, but purely militarily I just dont see Russia as being near as weakened as our propaganda machine tells us (Hope im as wrong as can be)

I think what people (the war twitter types) are saying is that the immediate threat of massed invasion of Kyiv is passed. There are good reasons to think that - substantial number of troops observed withdrawing (iirc 2 Battalion tactical groups - BTGs - around 800 personnel each). Moving them back would be considerably harder than moving them there in the first place, so there is a good argument that this is a genuine signal of a change in tactics.

However what they're also saying is that this is just a different phase in the war. Those troops will be active elsewhere. There probably won't be full withdrawals around Kyiv etc, to tie up Ukrainian troops. The situation has changed, but what that change will bring is unknown.

 

[elbows]

I dunno, but purely militarily I just dont see Russia as being near as weakened as our propaganda machine tells us (Hope im as wrong as can be)

Even the really obvious propaganda machine output didnt go anywhere near as far as a few people do on this thread though. The propaganda has spoken of numerous Russian setbacks and has hyped various things at times. And some of the omissions have been quite obvious, such as very little focus on the remaining capabilities and force sizes of the Ukrainians. But they dont talk absolute shit about the Russian army collapsing like a few people do here. They talk about the failure of Russia to make progress, and in some parts of the country the reality does seem to have played out that way. My early caution about buying into that in the first few weeks has proven to be unnecessary.

 

[Cid]

They'll always be vulnerable to air even if the whole Ukrainian army is there. They can get more drones. Russia is about to lose its army. It cannot resupply. You cant build tanks that quickly. If they give up on the areas Russia stole they won't get them back.

We have no idea what remaining UA Bayraktar strength is. there are something like 300 of them in the entire world if I remember rightly. A google says they have 5-20. That is fuck all to cover a vast area - they need to be used carefully and effectively. They have their drone squad too (which I imagine is causing a lot of note-taking in many militaries) but that's like 30 men on quad bikes. Russia may not have air superiority, but neither does UA, and Russia may find it easier to operate closer to their borders.

 

[_Russ_]

"Russia may not have air superiority"

Umm, how can I put this?

 

[CyberRose]

So far, damage to Ukraine's infrastructure amounts to around $63 billion. In 2020, Ukraine's entire GDP was $155 billion, meaning Russia's destruction amounts to around 40% of Ukraine's entire economy. Surely no peace agreement could be signed which didn't include around a $100 billion compensation package to Ukraine from Russia?

What's the cost of damage to Ukraine's infrastructure amid Russia's invasion?

The cost of direct damage to Ukraine's infrastructure amid Russia's ongoing invasion has reached almost an estimated $63 billion, according to a new analysis.

abcnews.go.com

 

[emanymton]

So far, damage to Ukraine's infrastructure amounts to around $63 billion. In 2020, Ukraine's entire GDP was $155 billion, meaning Russia's destruction amounts to around 40% of Ukraine's entire economy. Surely no peace agreement could be signed which didn't include around a $100 billion compensation package to Ukraine from Russia?

What's the cost of damage to Ukraine's infrastructure amid Russia's invasion?

The cost of direct damage to Ukraine's infrastructure amid Russia's ongoing invasion has reached almost an estimated $63 billion, according to a new analysis.

abcnews.go.com

Don't worry I'm sire the IMF and World Bank will be all to happy to give out loans with only a few strings attached.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Ukraine has limited drones, Russia has a lot of troops and probably still at least some tech like jammers etc. Ukraine's army too is probably also fucked and exhausted at this point... It must have been a relentless month for them.



They can't just withdraw from the north though. Certainly can put pressure on forces there, but that's a commitment of troops.

Look at Mariupol. To the armchair general liberating the city just requires a focused attack from Volnovakha down. It would cut off Russian forces to the west from resupply, and save tens of thousands. But there are presumably reasons this isn't possible. I would guess Russia now has well entrenched positions facing north... Resupply should be easier for them given proximity of border, Rostov etc. Presumably similar factors, though perhaps a little more limited, in occupied Donbas. This is where we really do have no idea, and where a lot will depend on how this possible/probably redeployment pans out.

I don't think redeployment for Ukraine forces is at all easy incidentally. Hundreds of miles potentially vulnerable to air attack with areas of destroyed infrastructure.

They can move at night and Russian air power has gone missing pretty much. Russia redeployment however will be vulnerable from moving through potentially hostile territory and UA has proved itself very effective with drone led night time raids (they have a lot night vision kit than the russians). - also I would guess that UA can resupply their forces quicker - drone and missiles are being steadily supplied by NATO ,they have plenty of willing recruits and shorter supply lines. I read somewhere that UA now have more tanks than what they started with thanks to the amount of kit the Russians abandoned. Who knows? Maybe we will see a push to relive Mariupol?
I definitely think that the longer it goes on the weaker Russia gets.
There was also speculation that Russia was running out of artillery ammo and missiles - and the sporadic nature of bombardment everywhere except Mariupol seems to bare that out. Maybe Vlad can only flatten one city at a time.
A couple of week ago the argument that Russia would struggle to take Kiev was being poo pooed and it was all about the nature of the insurgency once Ukraine was fully occupied. It was assumed that the full weight of Russian bombardment would flatten Kiev. Now it looks like their best case scenario is securing eastern Ukraine. They may not even manage that.
All speculation of course - but my take is that the more optimistic assessments of Ukraine's chances of halting the invasion have proven to be pretty consistently correct.

Russia may now be trying to negotiate some sort of tepid "victory" and consolidate its gains - possibly because their capacity to carry on the war is decreasing daily - and dark hints about nukes and chemical weapons are just part of the posturing. Maybe its the Russian military now calling the shots rather than Voldemort.
Or not ...

 

[existentialist]

Yeh I know. I was simply making the point that we have been told things which seem entirely plausible but which have turned out to be bollocks. As I said some time back on this thread, we are not being told the unalloyed truth, we are being lied to. It's astonishing, to me, that critical thought has flown so quickly out of the window for so many people during this conflict.

On that note, I found this an interesting bit of commentary:

 

[dilute micro]

We have no idea what remaining UA Bayraktar strength is. there are something like 300 of them in the entire world if I remember rightly. A google says they have 5-20. That is fuck all to cover a vast area - they need to be used carefully and effectively. They have their drone squad too (which I imagine is causing a lot of note-taking in many militaries) but that's like 30 men on quad bikes. Russia may not have air superiority, but neither does UA, and Russia may find it easier to operate closer to their borders.

Bayraktar get the limelight. Ukraine has experience fighting in those occupied areas. Russia won't be able to keep on fighting, period. That's why they need an agreement to let them off. There will be more than a few who want to press. And to give up because of some notion of legitimacy on Russia's part would in itself give legitimacy to Russia keeping Ukrainian land.

 

[Cid]

"Russia may not have air superiority"

Umm, how can I put this?

Complete air superiority. Forgive me if I omit the odd word when talking to someone who seems to think Ukraine can use the skies freely.

 

[Cid]

They can move at night and Russian air power has gone missing pretty much. Russia redeployment however will be vulnerable from moving through potentially hostile territory and UA has proved itself very effective with drone led night time raids (they have a lot night vision kit than the russians). - also I would guess that UA can resupply their forces quicker - drone and missiles are being steadily supplied by NATO ,they have plenty of willing recruits and shorter supply lines. I read somewhere that UA now have more tanks than what they started with thanks to the amount of kit the Russians abandoned. Who knows? Maybe we will see a push to relive Mariupol?
I definitely think that the longer it goes on the weaker Russia gets.
There was also speculation that Russia was running out of artillery ammo and missiles - and the sporadic nature of bombardment everywhere except Mariupol seems to bare that out. Maybe Vlad can only flatten one city at a time.
A couple of week ago the argument that Russia would struggle to take Kiev was being poo pooed and it was all about the nature of the insurgency once Ukraine was fully occupied. It was assumed that the full weight of Russian bombardment would flatten Kiev. Now it looks like their best case scenario is securing eastern Ukraine. They may not even manage that.
All speculation of course - but my take is that the more optimistic assessments of Ukraine's chances of halting the invasion have proven to be pretty consistently correct.

Russia may now be trying to negotiate some sort of tepid "victory" and consolidate its gains - possibly because their capacity to carry on the war is decreasing daily - and dark hints about nukes and chemical weapons are just part of the posturing. Maybe its the Russian military now calling the shots rather than Voldemort.
Or not ...

Er... Night does not provide the cover it used to.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Er... Night does not provide the cover it used to.

it does if the enemy has very limited night vison capability. Which is the case for the Russians.

 

[Cid]

Pentagon is cautious: