Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Congratulations on your promotion, Comrade General!
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
This poor Russian kid lost a leg when he went off to fight the Nazis in Ukraine. Of course he didn't find any Nazis to flight, he found Ukrainians defending their country, and that cost him his leg. For that he was given a medal which looks suspiciously Third Reich-like...
And the general who gave it to him....
Said to him, “I hope you’ll soon get back on your feet again.”
And the general who gave it to him....
Said to him, “I hope you’ll soon get back on your feet again.”
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
Shades of the Clinton death list, methinks.
gosub
~#
Failure the 'final defeat': Panic on Russian state TV
Russian state television has broadcast an extraordinary rant about the war in Ukraine.
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
That medal is a cross pattée. Nothing nazi about it.
nogojones
spelling is overrated
Cid
Proper break this time
At this point I think they're engaged in a confusing mix of feinting, repositioning, and testing the ground for a way out. I suppose I'm not really saying anything there... Except that I'm not sure how much there's any grand strategic purpose to specific things they're doing beyond probing at what might work.
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
Tactical withdrawal...I think they are getting their arses kicked in that neighbourhood and have to find a way to sell that to recover. This is it.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
aye I've ditch my dictator friend when he become a burden to making money
does not make me think he suddenly be a good guy
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
It’s difficult to say - if they are withdrawing then that’s one thing, but if they are going to stay where they are and not attack (with the implication that the Ukrainian military shouldn’t attack them) then that is considerably worse.
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
They were doing a spot of digging in last week(ish), I wonder are they going back to those pre prepared positions now that things have not proceeded optimally? TBH if half the things I've been seeing on OSINT Twitter are true they may be chased out of that as well. I'm hoping this is the Russians desperately playing for time.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The likes of the ISW, often relying on reports from Ukraines military, hadnt seen evidence of Russian forces redeploying from the Kyiv region to other fronts. What they had seen was force rotation in the area, in an attempt to restore combat capability in future. eg some went back to Belarus. They expect Ukrainian forces to continue to take advantage of this temporary situation, regaining more territory in the area during this period.
I do not completely rule out the possibility that Russia will actually change priorities or attempt to negotiate more seriously, but for now it doesnt seem possible to tell the difference between genuine changes in that regard and Russia simply dressing up the current situation as being something else in order to save face and cover this period where they arent going to make gains there and will probably lose some ground instead. So a similar possible underlying reality as seen with their line last week when Russia publicly announced that they were focusing their efforts on the east instead. That stuff may just have been a temporary excuse to cover for the fact they'd failed to make the progress they told the Russian public to expect in regards Kyiv.
I do not completely rule out the possibility that Russia will actually change priorities or attempt to negotiate more seriously, but for now it doesnt seem possible to tell the difference between genuine changes in that regard and Russia simply dressing up the current situation as being something else in order to save face and cover this period where they arent going to make gains there and will probably lose some ground instead. So a similar possible underlying reality as seen with their line last week when Russia publicly announced that they were focusing their efforts on the east instead. That stuff may just have been a temporary excuse to cover for the fact they'd failed to make the progress they told the Russian public to expect in regards Kyiv.
elbows
Well-Known Member
A few quotes from a recent ISW report in relation to what I just said, although of course any of these assessments could change in future:
www.understandingwar.org
Institute for the Study of War
Ukrainian forces recaptured Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, on March 28. Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks around Kyiv will likely disrupt ongoing Russian efforts to reconstitute forces and resume major offensive operations to encircle Kyiv. Ukrainian forces
elbows
Well-Known Member
Oh and just because I've said that, doesnt mean I am excessively skeptical about the talks. There might be real progress there, I've got a very open mind about that. Just because the realities on the ground make it convenient for Russia to dress some of the resulting implications up as being a deliberate gesture rather than a consequence of the military situation, doesnt mean nothing real and substantial can come from the talks.
bimble
floofy
well thats very weird. he didn't just go rogue presumably? 'any peace deal with Ukraine means humiliating defeat for Russia' kind of goes well with the story of delegates being poisoned.Failure the 'final defeat': Panic on Russian state TV
Russian state television has broadcast an extraordinary rant about the war in Ukraine.www.nzherald.co.nz
elbows
Well-Known Member
The BBC fact checking team have been looking at the footage of people being shot in the legs that was mentioned here the other day.
They havent gone as far as to say they've verified all aspects yet, but they then run through a lot of details that all seem to me like they point in the direction of genuine so far.
I also note that despite the initial statement by Ukraines armed forces commander in chief, someone elses follow up comment is more reflective of the sort of thing they'd say if they thought there was a fair chance it was real, or at least didnt want to look bad by not taking it seriously or ruling its authenticity out prematurely.
They havent gone as far as to say they've verified all aspects yet, but they then run through a lot of details that all seem to me like they point in the direction of genuine so far.
Does video show Russian prisoners being shot?
Ukrainian authorities investigate a video apparently showing Russian PoWs being shot in the legs.
www.bbc.co.uk
I also note that despite the initial statement by Ukraines armed forces commander in chief, someone elses follow up comment is more reflective of the sort of thing they'd say if they thought there was a fair chance it was real, or at least didnt want to look bad by not taking it seriously or ruling its authenticity out prematurely.
I think it’s a case of being bitten by your own propaganda. Putin has persuaded Russian nationalists that Ukraine must be subdued and taken over for its own good and for Russian security. He has underlined this as being crucial to the very existence of Russia, worth threatening the west with everything Russia has to achieve it. Every mouthpiece he has got has been used to reinforce that message. So what happens when they fail to subdue Ukraine and take it over? Do the people he has persuaded with the truth of his rhetoric just go, “oh okay then”? Or do they react with panic and rage?
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Just a random thought on the encirclement of Mariupol or indeed any place now in this war or any other for that matter - could you resupply by drone? Perhaps under cover of night as well.
If so, manoeuvring to produce pockets or encircling cities for sieges would seem to be greatly undermined.
Provided you have the drones...
If so, manoeuvring to produce pockets or encircling cities for sieges would seem to be greatly undermined.
Provided you have the drones...
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
You would need a lot of drones to get anything like enough food and water in to make a difference I think.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
They are quite lightweight.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
All profit. Presumably he intended to recover cost. I was initially surprised by that but clearly he could see what was coming.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
they frozen more asset of his that the foot ball club all over Europe
sure he missing them as well
very weird that people are trying to defend Roman who said nothing for years about Putin. but the moment it's his wallet and made him a international pariah,
he suddenly had a change of heart about the man
ballocks he is trying to find ways to come out of this with most of his wealth intact
how many people that the russian have wanted to kill have they only mildly poisoned with less that a 24 hour recovery time
sure he missing them as well
very weird that people are trying to defend Roman who said nothing for years about Putin. but the moment it's his wallet and made him a international pariah,
he suddenly had a change of heart about the man
ballocks he is trying to find ways to come out of this with most of his wealth intact
how many people that the russian have wanted to kill have they only mildly poisoned with less that a 24 hour recovery time
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