Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[bimble]

I think it’s a case of being bitten by your own propaganda. Putin has persuaded Russian nationalists that Ukraine must be subdued and taken over for its own good and for Russian security. He has underlined this as being crucial to the very existence of Russia, worth threatening the west with everything Russia has to achieve it. Every mouthpiece he has got has been used to reinforce that message. So what happens when they fail to subdue Ukraine and take it over? Do the people he has persuaded with the truth of his rhetoric just go, “oh okay then”? Or do they react with panic and rage?

Yeah. That makes me realise that I hadn’t considered there might be other true believers aside from the boss himself.

 

[Cid]

Just a random thought on the encirclement of Mariupol or indeed any place now in this war or any other for that matter - could you resupply by drone? Perhaps under cover of night as well.

If so, manoeuvring to produce pockets or encircling cities for sieges would seem to be greatly undermined.

Provided you have the drones...

Say 150,000 people... Probably 2/3kg of food/day. Call it 1kg. 10 days 1,500 tonnes. Even a Bayraktar will only carry 150kg. Conventional drones seem to go up to about 20kg.

So no.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Say 150,000 people... Probably 2/3kg of food/day. Call it 1kg. 10 days 1,500 tonnes. Even a Bayraktar will only carry 150kg. Conventional drones seem to go up to about 20kg.

So no.

Pot noodles?

 

[The39thStep]

All profit. Presumably he intended to recover cost. I was initially surprised by that but clearly he could see what was coming.

Agreed to wipe the debt off that the club owned to him. Said the club was not about money but about his love for Chelsea .

 

[strung out]

A lot of talk from warfare/strategy experts now that the battle for Kiev is essentially over and Ukraine has won it.

Lots more detail for the implications for that in this thread, especially around why they can't just regroup/resupply and try again, and what that means for Ukraine's negotiating position, and a quicker end to the war than some predicted (weeks and months rather than months and years).



My feeling is that there will probably be some kind of concession to Donbass/Luhansk independence, possibly via a referendum, constitutionally enshrined neutrality, so no NATO membership, though future EU membership will be on the table.

Russia has clearly lost any ability to either take Kiev and enforce regime change, or even cut Ukraine off from the sea by taking Odessa.

I think the question will end up being how humiliating the agreement ends up being for Russia, and the consequences for Putin's leadership. Giving Zelenskyy the power to agree and end to western sanctions could be the final nail in the coffin of Russia's ability to negotiate a favourable outcome for themselves.

I could be wrong obviously, especially if Putin decides to dig in in the East, arming and supporting separatist militias, with or without the direct support of the Russian military.

 

[emanymton]

Pot noodles?

Good God, haven't they suffered enough?

 

[Ax^]

Agreed to wipe the debt off that the club owned to him. Said the club was not about money but about his love for Chelsea .

are you a Chelsea fan btw

 

[Diamond]

Say 150,000 people... Probably 2/3kg of food/day. Call it 1kg. 10 days 1,500 tonnes. Even a Bayraktar will only carry 150kg. Conventional drones seem to go up to about 20kg.

So no.

I suppose I was thinking a bit more about ammunition and so on but, yes, can see those points as well.

 

[dilute micro]

At this point I think they're engaged in a confusing mix of feinting, repositioning, and testing the ground for a way out. I suppose I'm not really saying anything there... Except that I'm not sure how much there's any grand strategic purpose to specific things they're doing beyond probing at what might work.

I think they're going to focus on keeping Donbass and Crimea and to negotiate before the Ukrainians think about rooting them out of those places.

 

[elbows]

A lot of talk from warfare/strategy experts now that the battle for Kiev is essentially over and Ukraine has won it.

I'll keep an eye on whether ISW reach the same conclusions, because the last stuff from them that I posted earlier on was not ready to reach that conclusion. But that conclusion is certainly compatible with the Russian spin being put on things for quite some days now.

 

[Idris2002]

A lot of talk from warfare/strategy experts now that the battle for Kiev is essentially over and Ukraine has won it.

Lots more detail for the implications for that in this thread, especially around why they can't just regroup/resupply and try again, and what that means for Ukraine's negotiating position, and a quicker end to the war than some predicted (weeks and months rather than months and years).



My feeling is that there will probably be some kind of concession to Donbass/Luhansk independence, possibly via a referendum, constitutionally enshrined neutrality, so no NATO membership, though future EU membership will be on the table.

Russia has clearly lost any ability to either take Kiev and enforce regime change, or even cut Ukraine off from the sea by taking Odessa.

I think the question will end up being how humiliating the agreement ends up being for Russia, and the consequences for Putin's leadership. Giving Zelenskyy the power to agree and end to western sanctions could be the final nail in the coffin of Russia's ability to negotiate a favourable outcome for themselves.

I could be wrong obviously, especially if Putin decides to dig in in the East, arming and supporting separatist militias, with or without the direct support of the Russian military.

There will be very strong pressure to accept a deal that involves losing the east - pressure on Ukraine from the west, I mean. That will solve nothing in the long-term. It could also very easily provoke an assassination attempt on Zelensky - possibly a successful one.

 

[ohmyliver]

Before the govt made the club subject to license he announced that all funds from sale would go to all victims of war on both sides.

you could argue that by having his assets seized, he's a victim of war.....

 

[strung out]

There will be very strong pressure to accept a deal that involves losing the east - pressure on Ukraine from the west, I mean. That will solve nothing in the long-term. It could also very easily provoke an assassination attempt on Zelensky - possibly a successful one.

I think Russia will be under far more pressure than Ukraine. They've committed and lost a huge proportion of their military force, they've already substantially had to row back on their pre-war aims, holding their gains will come at considerable cost militarily and politically, and their economy is regressing by decades.

 

[Dystopiary]

This poor Russian kid lost a leg when he went off to fight the Nazis in Ukraine. Of course he didn't find any Nazis to flight, he found Ukrainians defending their country, and that cost him his leg. For that he was given a medal which looks suspiciously Third Reich-like...

View attachment 316312



And the general who gave it to him....

View attachment 316313



Said to him, “I hope you’ll soon get back on your feet again.”

There's a video here, I seen a longer one the other day but can't find it. The young men look barely out of boyhood. Not going to try to be all armchair psychoanalyst over their faces and body language, but impossible to not see.

Injured Russian soldiers awkwardly accept medals of honour

 

[Cid]

I think they're going to focus on keeping Donbass and Crimea and to negotiate before the Ukrainians think about rooting them out of those places.

If you asked me what I thought was likely, I'd probably cautiously agree... But that's not really my point. Which is that they've been trying a few different things to see what might stick, and that I don't think you can trust what they're saying.

 

[Cid]

Although given Jack Detsch is reporting a US four star saying they've committed 70-75% of their total forces, it leans me significantly more toward them wanting to back the fuck out.

<possible that's a misinterpretation somewhere down the line>

 

[Cid]

you could argue that by having his assets seized, he's a victim of war.....

Not seized, frozen.

 

[frogwoman]

I don't believe anything the Putin regime says regarding negotiations tbh

 

[strung out]

Although given Jack Detsch is reporting a US four star saying they've committed 70-75% of their total forces, it leans me significantly more toward them wanting to back the fuck out.

I'd be interested to know what kind of state the remaining 25% is in too - I wouldn't in the least be surprised if it's lying in tank graveyards, having been cannibalised for spare parts, or mothballed and not maintained to any combatworthy standard. Same with their human soldiers - large numbers of their elite forces have been wiped out in failed offensives. You can't just call up more men and expect them to be any good without years worth of training.

 

[Cid]

I'd be interested to know what kind of state the remaining 25% is in too - I wouldn't in the least be surprised if it's lying in tank graveyards, having been cannibalised for spare parts, or mothballed and not maintained to any combatworthy standard. Same with their human soldiers - large numbers of their elite forces have been wiped out in failed offensives. You can't just call up more men and expect them to be any good without years worth of training.

I'm just having a scan of wiki on their ground forces... 280,000 active duty. A key quote re your thought:

Rearmament has been an important goal of reform. With the goal of 70% modernization by 2020 This was one of the main goals of these reforms. From 1998 to 2001, the Russian Army received almost no new equipment. Sergey Shoygu took a less confrontational approach with the defense industry. By showing better flexibility on terms and pricing, the awarding of new contracts for the upcoming period was much better. Shoygu promised that future contracts would be awarded primarily to domestic firms. While easing tensions, these concessions also weakened incentives for companies to improve performance

There's quite a lot of interesting stuff in there about conscript/contract mix, high level of crime etc.

 

[CyberRose]

I think any concessions Ukraine might give Russia over Donbas would cause a furious reaction from the nationalist battalions, and possibly a backlash against their own government...

 

[Pickman's model]

Although given Jack Detsch is reporting a US four star saying they've committed 70-75% of their total forces, it leans me significantly more toward them wanting to back the fuck out.

<possible that's a misinterpretation somewhere down the line>

I suppose that's general cavoli. Is this the second or third time we've been told they've thrown everything into ukraine

 

[Cid]

I suppose that's general cavoli. Is this the second or third time we've been told they've thrown everything into ukraine

Tod Wolters. Given the total number of Russian ground forces (which admittedly don't include airborne, special forces etc, but hey) it seems entirely plausible.

 

[Cid]

I'll keep an eye on whether ISW reach the same conclusions, because the last stuff from them that I posted earlier on was not ready to reach that conclusion. But that conclusion is certainly compatible with the Russian spin being put on things for quite some days now.

I think the info on this is filling out a bit now, with movements observed both on the ground and presumably via satellite stuff we don't get access to.

 

[Pickman's model]

Tod Wolters. Given the total number of Russian ground forces (which admittedly don't include airborne, special forces etc, but hey) it seems entirely plausible.

Each time we've been told they're about to collapse it's seemed entirely plausible

 

[Cid]

Each time we've been told they're about to collapse it's seemed entirely plausible

Percentage of military committed, not whether they're about to collapse.

 

[Pickman's model]

Percentage of military committed, not whether they're about to collapse.

Yeh I know. I was simply making the point that we have been told things which seem entirely plausible but which have turned out to be bollocks. As I said some time back on this thread, we are not being told the unalloyed truth, we are being lied to. It's astonishing, to me, that critical thought has flown so quickly out of the window for so many people during this conflict.

 

[Cid]

Yeh I know. I was simply making the point that we have been told things which seem entirely plausible but which have turned out to be bollocks. As I said some time back on this thread, we are not being told the unalloyed truth, we are being lied to. It's astonishing, to me, that critical thought has flown so quickly out of the window for so many people during this conflict.

In a discussion you tend to talk through various possibilities, rather than just saying 'oh, we just don't know'. The latter is more honest, but not a particularly good way of trying to wrap your head round a situation.

 

[Pickman's model]

In a discussion you tend to talk through various possibilities, rather than just saying 'oh, we just don't know'. The latter is more honest, but not a particularly good way of trying to wrap your head round a situation.

As I've said, as other posters have said, it's very difficult to get a picture of what's going on because there is too much information flowing out about this conflict, some of which is definitely true, some of which is definitely false, and much of which is somewhere in between. All good dis- and misinformation is plausible. So it's going to be very hard to wrap your head around this situation, because no one has the time or wherewithal to spend sorting the wheat from the chaff.

 

[Cid]

As I've said, as other posters have said, it's very difficult to get a picture of what's going on because there is too much information flowing out about this conflict, some of which is definitely true, some of which is definitely false, and much of which is somewhere in between. All good dis- and misinformation is plausible. So it's going to be very hard to wrap your head around this situation, because no one has the time or wherewithal to spend sorting the wheat from the chaff.

Yes, it's speculation, we should always be aware of that. Like believing the world will end in 2025. Just as an example like.