Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Cid]

I'll c&p their key tweets, from briefing:

No one should be fooled by the Kremlin's claim that it will just suddenly reduce military attacks near Kyiv or reports that it will withdraw its forces.

We believe this is a repositioning, not a real withdrawal, and the world should now be prepared for a major offensive against other areas of Ukraine. It does not mean the threat to Kyiv is over.

 

[Pickman's model]

Complete air superiority. Forgive me if I omit the odd word when talking to someone who seems to think Ukraine can use the skies freely.

You either have air superiority or you don't.

 

[Pickman's model]

it does if the enemy has very limited night vison capability. Which is the case for the Russians.

Perhaps you could repost your link supporting this

 

[Cid]

You either have air superiority or you don't.

Not really true. It's a measure of denial of enemy air operations and ability to conduct own operations. It's not absolute and has clearly changed in the era of drone warfare. Air supremacy maybe, but that seems to be somewhat defunct as a term these days.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Perhaps you could repost your link supporting this

have read it on various reports - including ISW stuff I think - but nothing to hand - think it was noted that the Russian army aren't doing any night ops cos of lack of night vision stuff - but the Ukrainians are do.ETA - found this in a pre invaions article in the Atlantic

Ukraine Crisis: Deterring Putin is expensive but much cheaper than war

It is also known that the Russian military does not have an abundance of night vision googles, so an ability to see during long winter nights will make Ukrainian troops much more effective and dangerous. Likewise, Russian air superiority will be considerably less useful against an opponent operating in small and highly mobile groups, so secure communication devices should be a priority.

 

[Cid]

have read it on various reports - including ISW stuff I think - but nothing to hand - think it was noted that the Russian army aren't doing any night ops cos of lack of night vision stuff - but the Ukrainians are do.

Yes, very early on. But not confirmed, situations change and tech employed by different branches does different things. I imagine also at this point every hunting shop, bird sanctuary and camera store has had serious looking men clutching requisition orders knocking at the door.

 

[Larry O'Hara]

That's what some people close to the Russian government likes to say.

Oh my: I have had issues with British spooks for many years, and no sympathy at all with the FSB etc. But if you want to tar me as pro the Russian government, go ahead.

 

[existentialist]

Oh my: I have had issues with British spooks for many years, and no sympathy at all with the FSB etc. But if you want to tar me as pro the Russian government, go ahead.

Steady on...

 

[Larry O'Hara]

There I was thinking you'd left your madder warbling days behind you. I'd ask for any evidence of that, but it'd be like asking a flat earther for evidence for their claims. Bet you'll probably say something to me like 'your cards are marked now you State asset'. Fuck off back to your weird little conspiracy obsessed world you crack smoking fruitbat.

crack smoking fruitbat: I see. No point in engaging with scum like you then. You an asset: hilarious

 

[Artaxerxes]

Don't worry I'm sire the IMF and World Bank will be all to happy to give out loans with only a few strings attached.

Way ahead of you.

Ukraine will service debt on time and in full despite Russian invasion, government says

Ukraine will service its debt on time and in full, bolstered by financing from allies and international institutions who have rushed to Kyiv's aid since the Russian invasion, the finance ministry told Reuters on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[agricola]

You either have air superiority or you don't.

as Cid said, it isn't absolute - the Luftwaffe had air superiority over the Eastern Front (and Germany / Occupied Europe) for most of WW2 but the VVS, RAF and USAAF were still able to operate, deliver strikes and raids etc

 

[kebabking]

Sorry, to be nerdy, these terms have very specific meanings - air superiority means that when/where you mass your air forces, you can do (broadly) what you need to for X period of time while still incurring some losses. Air supremacy means you have destroyed the enemy's air capability to the point where you can do what you like, where and when you like.

 

[_Russ_]

On that note, I found this an interesting bit of commentary:

Weird came about that not long before you posted, creepy guy knows about tanks and shit but with a definite pro-Russian agenda

 

[Ax^]

crack smoking fruitbat: I see. No point in engaging with scum like you then. You an asset: hilarious

Well that esculated quickly


*sit back at desk with a beer


you are very wrong dude btw...

 

[Larry O'Hara]

Well that esculated quickly


sit back at desk with a beer


your very wrong dude btw

escalation? Not from me, just a response in kind to a non-entity. Wrong about what: Bellingcat? Have you read their own book?

 

[Ax^]

bring back Butchersapron ...

 

[eoin_k]

escalation? Not from me, just a response in kind to a non-entity. Wrong about what: Bellingcat? Have you read their own book?

I haven't read it. What's it say?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Oh my: I have had issues with British spooks for many years, and no sympathy at all with the FSB etc. But if you want to tar me as pro the Russian government, go ahead.

I didn't say you were pro the Russian government, I merely pointed out you were parroting a unsubstantiated rumour that Bellingcat is somehow connected with MI6, which was started by people connected to the Russian government.

I don't know you well enough to know if you are pro the Russian government, or just a useful idiot to them for parroting their propaganda.

 

[SpineyNorman]

There's probably an article about it on the notes from bedlam website.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Wrong about what: Bellingcat? Have you read their own book?

I haven't read it. What's it say?

Yes, what does it say?

I didn't even know they had published a book about themselves, but I am ordering a copy based on some of the reviews I've now read, none seem to suggest a connection with MI6, in fact the opposite is implied, like this from Bill Browder -

"In a world of disrupters, Eliot Higgins and Bellingcat have turned the world of intelligence gathering on its head and put to shame the intelligence services of the biggest and most powerful countries in the world."

 

[_Russ_]

Yes, what does it say?

I didn't even know they had published a book about themselves, but I am ordering a copy based on some of the reviews I've now read, none seem to suggest a connection with MI6, in fact the opposite is implied, like this from Bill Browder -

Their discord channel is worth joining

Discord - Group Chat That’s All Fun & Games

Discord is great for playing games and chilling with friends, or even building a worldwide community. Customize your own space to talk, play, and hang out.

discord.gg

 

[frogwoman]

A Russian friend of mine took these, public transport in Moscow

 

[cupid_stunt]

One thing that continues to puzzle me is this suggestion of Ukraine having a 'secure neutral status but with external security guarantees'.

NATO has been clear they do not want to fight the Russian military, so I am not sure why any NATO countries would offer 'external security guarantees', which seems to be basically asking for NATO protection without actually joining NATO, unless I am missing something.

It came up this morning, when Raab was doing the media rounds -

Raab was cautious about the prospect of the UK acting as an independent guarantor of Ukraine’s security if it declared itself to be neutral as part of a peace deal with Moscow.

“It would depend on what precisely is involved. We have been very clear we are not going to engage Russia in direct military confrontation. Ukraine is not a Nato member,” he said.

“We will consider anything that President Zelenskiy says he needs very carefully. But we are not going to, I think, replicate unilaterally the Nato commitments that apply to Nato members.”

 

[Cid]

One thing that continues to puzzle me is this suggestion of Ukraine having a 'secure neutral status but with external security guarantees'.

NATO has been clear they do not want to fight the Russian military, so I am not sure why any NATO countries would offer 'external security guarantees', which seems to be basically asking for NATO protection without actually joining NATO, unless I am missing something.

It came up this morning, when Raab was doing the media rounds -

Yeah, hard to make much sense of it. It's potentially just a way to push for a withdrawal I suppose, since putting it to a referendum is contingent on that. Also to put pressure on Nato to send more aid. There don't seem to be the votes to carry it either at a constitutional level, or at a population level in any case.

 

[bluescreen]

One thing that continues to puzzle me is this suggestion of Ukraine having a 'secure neutral status but with external security guarantees'.

NATO has been clear they do not want to fight the Russian military, so I am not sure why any NATO countries would offer 'external security guarantees', which seems to be basically asking for NATO protection without actually joining NATO, unless I am missing something.

It came up this morning, when Raab was doing the media rounds -

Oh, that would be like the guarantees in the Budapest Memorandum.

 

[Cid]

A Russian friend of mine took these, public transport in Moscow
View attachment 316405

View attachment 316402

Do you have any sense of how things are there at the moment? In terms of current general attitude to war?

 

[frogwoman]

Do you have any sense of how things are there at the moment? In terms of current general attitude to war?

I don’t really want to talk directly to people about it tbh.

 

[Cid]

I don’t really want to talk directly to people about it tbh.

Yeah, fair (same when I talk to Chinese friends tbh).

 

[gosub]

I don’t really want to talk directly to people about it tbh.

that says something in itself

 

[frogwoman]

He's not shy about his feelings so I've just asked him, and told him he can delete my comment